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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #461
  • Feb 7, 2019 1:32am Feb 7, 2019 1:32am
Dax surely going lower, and I would say the H4 100sma @ 11,160 is a pretty good target to aim for. Currently straddling m30 200ema support but this should break, though the London boys may well lift it off the open, if not before, only to sell it down again, though I don't think it'll retrace much, perhaps only as far as the 1m 200ema, though we'll have to see as you never really know what it's going to do at the London open. I never look at Dow this early as for me the London session is all about the Dax.
  • #462
  • Feb 7, 2019 2:42am Feb 7, 2019 2:42am
Quoting cat
Dax surely going lower, and I would say the H4 100sma @ 11,160 is a pretty good target to aim for. Currently straddling m30 200ema support but this should break, though the London boys may well lift it off the open, if not before, only to sell it down again, though I don't think it'll retrace much, perhaps only as far as the 1m 200ema, though we'll have to see as you never really know what it's going to do at the London open. I never look at Dow this early as for me the London session is all about the Dax.

GM Cat - as I have 11,175 as the low of Tuesday's WRB in the hourly XO candle, also a 61.8% retrace - I'm with you on that area. The hourly 200 SMA with be in that area too

RE: your comments on Dow, when Dax was really "active" with its ADRs 200 pts or more, I would agree. However, these days from XO / LO both Dow & NAS have similar volumes to Dax and are IMO quite tradeable. The E Mini more so.

Regards
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #463
  • Feb 7, 2019 2:58am Feb 7, 2019 2:58am
Quoting Islander
{quote} RE: your comments on Dow, when Dax was really "active" with its ADRs 200 pts or more, I would agree. However, these days from XO / LO both Dow & NAS have similar volumes to Dax and are IMO quite tradeable. The E Mini more so. Regards
GM chaps - that's been my observation too. Looking at DAX this morning it's been 1 minute candle by candle almost perfectly in sync with the Dow, apart from a sell market order that somebody entered at 8.30.

To me, such behaviour makes the US indices more tradable than DAX, as one cannot by technical analysis explain the 8.30 sell - because for the rest of the time it moved like the Dow, and the Dow didn't sell off.
  • #464
  • Feb 7, 2019 3:10am Feb 7, 2019 3:10am
Quoting medici
{quote} GM chaps - that's been my observation too. Looking at DAX this morning it's been 1 minute candle by candle almost perfectly in sync with the Dow, apart from a sell market order that somebody entered at 8.30. To me, such behaviour makes the US indices more tradable than DAX, as one cannot by technical analysis explain the 8.30 sell - because for the rest of the time it moved like the Dow, and the Dow didn't sell off.
GM M - then some hidden buying in that Ultra High Volumed WRB at 8:37 that then reversed from an area where I dont see any reason - prior action / fib etc.

Dow a steady buy after that small M1 hammer at 07:59 held ~ the L4 Camarilla Pivot - they are so helpful in ranging markets

PS Dax just held ~Cam L3 - again, as has Dow
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #465
  • Feb 7, 2019 3:13am Feb 7, 2019 3:13am
Quoting Islander
{quote} GM M - then some hidden buying in that Ultra High Volumed WRB at 8:37 that then reversed from an area where I dont see any reason - prior action / fib etc. Dow a steady buy after that small M1 hammer at 07:59 held ~ the L4 Camarilla Pivot - they are so helpful in ranging markets
Exactly, and in low volatility conditions like this morning, one may double or triple the trade size, reduce the stop distance accordingly, and have a decent trade for what would be 50-75 points in afternoon conditions. Beats DAX in my view.
  • #466
  • Feb 7, 2019 4:34am Feb 7, 2019 4:34am
Dax finally capitulated as it just had to. The play safe exit is here on S3, but there could be more to this one, though as I said above, the H4 100sma with the 76.4% just above @ 168 could well stretch this one down a bit further.
  • #467
  • Feb 7, 2019 5:08am Feb 7, 2019 5:08am
The Yellow Vests preparing for this weekend's big demonstrations outside the Elysee Palace!
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  • #468
  • Feb 7, 2019 7:35am Feb 7, 2019 7:35am
Great move by the Dax, which is why I love trading it, because when it's got momentum behind it, it just keeps on going, and in answer to the trader ( dispersion ) who came on here yesterday with a snide comment accusing me of talking bullshit because no one knows what the markets are ever going to do, I would just say that he has a lot to learn, and to urge everyone else never to pay attention to anyone on this forum who tells you the whole thing is entirely random and that it is impossible to predict price movement. These are just bitter people who take out their frustration by trying to convince others that because they themselves have failed, everyone else is bound to fail as well.

There, that was me on my soap box, but it had to be said as I've seen more than enough of these types of people in my many years of posting on forex factory.

H3 200ema hit on Dax, and now, New York should take the lead, but we could still see lower today, though I think lower than the H4 200ema @ 11,064 would surprise me.
  • #469
  • Feb 7, 2019 9:55am Feb 7, 2019 9:55am
At last - it looks as though the Dow has turned. It could only retrace to the 50.0 fib off yesterday and today's move down and the previous support around 25310.
  • #470
  • Feb 7, 2019 10:53am Feb 7, 2019 10:53am
Quoting tomase
At last - it looks as though the Dow has turned. It could only retrace to the 50.0 fib off yesterday and today's move down and the previous support around 25310.
Still early days, but certainly the biggest single day fall in the Dax since October and it's still falling. Dow could be on its way back to 24,500 area I would say.
  • #471
  • Feb 7, 2019 10:57am Feb 7, 2019 10:57am
" Stocks fall amid renewed trade growth fears " is the headline just published in the FT, that and the EU Commission cutting growth forecast, so no surprise there!

There's always got to be a reason hasn't there?
  • #472
  • Feb 7, 2019 11:11am Feb 7, 2019 11:11am
Quoting cat
" Stocks fall amid renewed trade growth fears " is the headline just published in the FT, that and the EU Commission cutting growth forecast, so no surprise there! There's always got to be a reason hasn't there?
Quite - they can produce any old tosh to "explain" a fall or a rise.....after the fact.
  • #473
  • Feb 7, 2019 11:47am Feb 7, 2019 11:47am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Quite - they can produce any old tosh to "explain" a fall or a rise.....after the fact.
It's nice to be in the driving seat as it were, able to predict market moves before they happen despite the fact that those who do not know market behaviour as we do insist that this is impossible...kind of gives one a sense of power!
  • #474
  • Edited 12:11pm Feb 7, 2019 11:49am | Edited 12:11pm
Now that was 38,2 fib.. now lets see if this is a dip or we are back to sell the rallies

And last weeks point of control.
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  • #475
  • Feb 7, 2019 12:32pm Feb 7, 2019 12:32pm
Quoting cat
{quote} It's nice to be in the driving seat as it were, able to predict market moves before they happen despite the fact that those who do not know market behaviour as we do insist that this is impossible...kind of gives one a sense of power!
Masters of the Universe or what! (joke). Seriously though, even if you show someone highly intelligent - but who isn't familiar with market behaviour - a daily chart of anything in a strong trend with clear retraces to support or resistance before trend continuation and explain that those areas provide high probability setups to take a trade, they most likely will say it's all just luck and entirely random.
  • #476
  • Edited 3:49pm Feb 7, 2019 3:28pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} Masters of the Universe or what! (joke). Seriously though, even if you show someone highly intelligent - but who isn't familiar with market behaviour - a daily chart of anything in a strong trend with clear retraces to support or resistance before trend continuation and explain that those areas provide high probability setups to take a trade, they most likely will say it's all just luck and entirely random.
I've long since given up trying to explain anything about trading to someone who isn't a trader...it's a complete waste of time and effort. Actually though, it's not just non-traders, because I can't believe the number of people here on ff I've seen preaching the recklessness of trading - a mug's game guaranteed to take your money, and I'm thinking to myself ' well wtf are you doing here then if that's what you believe '.
  • #477
  • Feb 8, 2019 1:57am Feb 8, 2019 1:57am
Looking at the Daily, Dax could be going deep, around 10,700 at least, though it may well pullback first after this Frankie further leg down. Stocks are in big trouble again that's for sure.
  • #478
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:11am Feb 8, 2019 2:11am
Further out, I'm looking at 8,000 for the Dax...just not sure when exactly, but all tfs, Daily, weekly and monthly looking very bearish.
  • #479
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:22am Feb 8, 2019 2:22am
GM - looking at the Dow, the recent down-wave distinguished itself from the previous pullbacks by having about twice the volume per point moved, indicating a reversal rather than pullback in an uptrend.

There should be a dead cat bounce from here, but we may have to wait for the Americans for that. After that the downside potential is sizeable....
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  • #480
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:37am Feb 8, 2019 2:37am
Quoting cat
Looking at the Daily, Dax could be going deep, around 10,700 at least, though it may well pullback first after this Frankie further leg down. Stocks are in big trouble again that's for sure.

GM - Cat - nice call yesterday

I have an hourly price projection to the 10, 720 area cash.

My 16:00 GMT hourly candle had the highest volume since January 3rd, suggesting profit taking which is confirmed by the 16:60 & :35 M5 volumes, all in an area of prior activity.

Waitimg for a pull back to re-load
Trading Levels with WRBs
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