US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing? | Page 23 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The HolyGrail 1.6 Crashing Mt4 2 replies

Help! my MT4 keeps crashing. 4 replies

"Live Update" crashing MT4? 5 replies

metatrader keeps crashing 2 replies

two version of FF tunnel Chart, one say down, one say up, which one is correct? 3 replies

Attachments: US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?
Exit Attachments

US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #441
  • Feb 5, 2019 3:25am Feb 5, 2019 3:25am
Quoting medici
Good morning Very impressive and nuanced rendition of Beethoven's sonata Yes, the Dow conquered the trend line and the Fibonacci resistance, and seems to be ready for more. Next levels about 500 and 1400 points to the north. At the rate it's been going so far, the top level, and a challenge to all-time-high, looks possible. But things may change at any time. This afternoon will be interesting. {image}
Thank you for the compliment Medici, I too felt it was very expressive for one so young. As Beethoven himself said " To play a wrong note is insignificant, but to play without passion is inexcusable ".

Yes, the Dow is looking like it wants higher now, but these markets are full of surprises these days.

Dax is currently making up its mind on R2, and there are bound to be sellers here, just depends who wins. If the shorts win, then it could be all the way back down to today's CP @ 11,167, or, if the bulls push it higher, then it's the R3 area between 330-350.
  • #442
  • Feb 5, 2019 4:02am Feb 5, 2019 4:02am
Quoting cat
Dow trend line is broken, just, and it certainly looks like it's headed higher now to my new higher level of 26,200. There will be all sorts of fun and games if it gets back up there because any higher and it's pushing for new highs or a triple top. Dax going nowhere fast atm, stuck beneath its weekly 200ema. So nothing much to get to exited about atm. For music lovers, here's Cat junior playing Beethoven last week. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1owWQV6rpg
Encore! That was brilliant.

Hey, He looks a bit like Baron Trump!!
  • #443
  • Feb 5, 2019 4:27am Feb 5, 2019 4:27am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Encore! That was brilliant. Hey, He looks a bit like Baron Trump!!
haha..thanks!
  • #444
  • Edited 7:05am Feb 5, 2019 6:52am | Edited 7:05am
Quoting jakucha
I don't see any technical reason for the dow to fall without testing this area first. {image}
This one is done. Now waiting for daily close, but I imagine some distribution from today up until the descending trendline above would make sense.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dow andrew.png Size: 52 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #445
  • Feb 5, 2019 12:33pm Feb 5, 2019 12:33pm
Couple of scalps from the H4 SR level highlighted in the post above and last week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow scalps.png Size: 44 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #446
  • Feb 6, 2019 1:36am Feb 6, 2019 1:36am
" Last night was Donald Trump's first State of the Union address, and in it, as expected , he spoke of America's 'booming' economy and the soaring US Stock Market...... Ironically however, on the day of the State of the Union address, US Stocks had their worst day since Trump won the White House, falling nearly 500 points, a pretty big single day fall by any standards. The recent almost frenzied buying of US stocks so far this year is a sign, though no more than a sign, that this remarkable bull run may, and I stress may, be close to running out of steam.

Time will tell, but this is one of the very first signals of an impending correction analysts look for - signs of exhaustion at extremely overbought/oversold levels, and this month's potential ' Death Throe ' candle ( the highest white bar you can see on the chart ) which is far longer than any monthly candle previously, is a potential early indication that the stock market may have peaked, or be close to doing so "

From a post I made, Jan 31st, 2018.

Could we be in for a repeat I wonder??
  • #447
  • Feb 6, 2019 2:21am Feb 6, 2019 2:21am
Any Daxers out there, to me it's looking technically like we could come down heavily today, though dangerous to short where we are now just after the London open, as it needs to pull back a bit. If you're short from the Frankie open, best hold at BE.
  • #448
  • Feb 6, 2019 2:47am Feb 6, 2019 2:47am
Quoting cat
Any Daxers out there, to me it's looking technically like we could come down heavily today, though dangerous to short where we are now just after the London open, as it needs to pull back a bit. If you're short from the Frankie open, best hold at BE.
Currently Dax has found support at the Jan 25 high with the Jan 31 high a few points lower.

Little reaction - so far - from the poor Factory Orders at -1.6% vs +0.3% expected. Is Dax watching Dow? which is currently holding ~its DP. As always, TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #449
  • Feb 6, 2019 2:52am Feb 6, 2019 2:52am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Currently Dax has found support at the Jan 25 high with the Jan 31 high a few points lower. Little reaction - so far - from the poor Factory Orders at -1.6% vs +0.3% expected. Is Dax watching Dow? which is currently holding ~its DP. As always, TWT
10m 200ema @ 310 which is also the Daily CP. It could lift here but only before another leg down I feel.
  • #450
  • Feb 6, 2019 3:50am Feb 6, 2019 3:50am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Is Dax watching Dow? which is currently holding ~its DP. As always, TWT

GM chaps

Correlations indeed. Here's my take on it.

First a chart with DJI (black) and S&P 500 (blue) from Trump's election up until the January 2018 high. As is evident, DJI is outpacing the S&P 500 at an increasing pace - this due to the fact that the rally is liquidity driven, and the S&P 500 can't quite absorb as much liquidity as the blue chips.

Then a chart of the same pair from the October top onwards - almost perfect synchrony!!! And the same goes for most equity indices, to varying degrees, worldwide.

What's going on? It's a well known sign of market stress. Here's a piece on the same phenomenon occurring in 2008: https://seekingalpha.com/article/102...ations-go-to-1

And here's a more analytical view on the phenomenon: http://keplerianfinance.com/2013/06/...ons-go-to-one/

The conclusion is that the markets are stressed, and this year's correction has not reduced the stress level the slightest.

This means that DAX will behave as observed, and this morning the correlation with DJI is higher than an average morning. Ergo, stress alert for the coming days.

Practically, for me, the conclusion is to focus on the Dow, and on a morning like today I'll save energy for the afternoon session, which I surmise will not be quiet.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-02-06 at 09.33.25.png Size: 118 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-02-06 at 09.35.01.png Size: 135 KB
  • #451
  • Feb 6, 2019 6:09am Feb 6, 2019 6:09am
Dax looks poised to drop..some very bearish looking candles, just take a look at H3 which just completed. Whether it will or not remains to be seen, and there is still plenty of big MA support on m15 & 20, but if it can get past these, then she should fall at least 200 pips, though may have to wait until the NY session before it does. New intra-day highs for the Dax this afternoon? No way, not in my book.

The Dow though is giving nothing away atm, looking hesitant and poised to break either way.
  • #452
  • Feb 6, 2019 7:56am Feb 6, 2019 7:56am
Looks like that, wants to do, smash, pressures, looks completed... damn man you are talking about chaotic price movement probably best described by brownian motion (70% of traders are algos) and you put your subjective ideas into trade...
  • #453
  • Feb 6, 2019 8:29am Feb 6, 2019 8:29am
Quoting dispersion
Looks like that, wants to do, smash, pressures, looks completed... damn man you are talking about chaotic price movement probably best described by brownian motion (70% of traders are algos) and you put your subjective ideas into trade...
Obviously chaotic and subjective to you. I suggest you read this thread from page one before you come on here to talk drivel.
  • #454
  • Feb 6, 2019 8:35am Feb 6, 2019 8:35am
Up we go. I have potential resistance on Dow around 450, and on the Dax around 400, if they get there.
  • #455
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:02am Feb 6, 2019 10:02am
1 hour ago, i was like "this is gona crash today 500points" due to big sell volume.. And now this.. This market is unbeliveable..
  • #456
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:08am Feb 6, 2019 10:08am
Quoting fxdk
1 hour ago, i was like "this is gona crash today 500points" due to big sell volume.. And now this.. This market is unbeliveable..
Often like this prior to a really big move. I don't think we are going to see anything today now, but tomorrow is ' Super Thursday ', so be ready is all I would say, and if it comes, then my money is to the downside.
  • #457
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:19am Feb 6, 2019 10:19am
In fact, on the Dax anyhow, it's my bigger tfs that look set for a fall, so the H4, H3 and H2. but not quite yet, and there is too mush support on the smaller ones, so the 30m in particular, which supports the ' not quite there yet ' message I'm getting from the higher ones. Dow has been held by the resistance level I gave earlier, so whether that continues to hold during the NY session remains to be seen. We could yet have a sell off today, but otherwise, tomorrow is looking good from where I'm sitting.
  • #458
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:32am Feb 6, 2019 10:32am
That was a nice drop, even tough its crawling back up again.

Where did you get 450 from?
  • #459
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:42am Feb 6, 2019 10:42am
Inserted Video


what do you guys think?
  • #460
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:58am Feb 6, 2019 10:58am
Quoting fxdk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HJ54RRB7OU what do you guys think?
Not sure what you want to say here? John Thomas Financial was shut down in 2013 after being sued by the SEC for defrauding investors....and the video is that old...
2 traders viewing now