US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing? | Page 18 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The HolyGrail 1.6 Crashing Mt4 2 replies

Help! my MT4 keeps crashing. 4 replies

"Live Update" crashing MT4? 5 replies

metatrader keeps crashing 2 replies

two version of FF tunnel Chart, one say down, one say up, which one is correct? 3 replies

Attachments: US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?
Exit Attachments

US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #341
  • Jan 22, 2019 11:16am Jan 22, 2019 11:16am
Quoting tomase
Looks like the bears have finally got their claws in and aren't letting go this time.
So far only a technical move down to SMA100 on the hourly for DJI, situated under the 50 period lower Bollinger band. Let's see what happens after the lunch period.
  • #342
  • Jan 22, 2019 11:25am Jan 22, 2019 11:25am
Last hour's close below 24400 is significant for me - but as you say, let's see where price goes around 7.30-8.30 UK.
  • #343
  • Jan 22, 2019 3:03pm Jan 22, 2019 3:03pm
Quoting don555
anyone here trade of a 3min timeframe ?
I do both tickchart and 1 min. also higher tf for swings
  • #344
  • Jan 22, 2019 3:04pm Jan 22, 2019 3:04pm
Quoting fxdk
{quote} I do both tickchart and 1 min. also higher tf for swings
And so do I.
  • #345
  • Jan 23, 2019 3:29am Jan 23, 2019 3:29am
With the Dax having struggled to get above 11,000 for so long, now it's struggling to get below it again. Funny old game this!
  • #346
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:03am Jan 23, 2019 11:03am
Dow took the stairs up last night and this morning but has sensibly come back down on the turbo escalator this afternoon. 300 pips so far with only 2 shallow pullbacks and it's looking like a strong impulse wave. If that holds true, then I think this move should extend down to at least the 23870 area (wave 1 Mon & Tues was 512 pips, times that by the Fib ratio 1.618 = 828 pips off this afternoons high at 24698). We'll just have to wait and see.
  • #347
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:40am Jan 23, 2019 11:40am
Quoting tomase
Dow took the stairs up last night and this morning but has sensibly come back down on the turbo escalator this afternoon. 300 pips so far with only 2 shallow pullbacks and it's looking like a strong impulse wave. If that holds true, then I think this move should extend down to at least the 23870 area (wave 1 Mon & Tues was 512 pips, times that by the Fib ratio 1.618 = 828 pips off this afternoons high at 24698). We'll just have to wait and see.
The high today was the upper 50 period Bollinger band on the hourly...
  • #348
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:49am Jan 23, 2019 11:49am
Quoting medici
{quote} The high today was the upper 50 period Bollinger band on the hourly...
So....please expand.
  • #349
  • Jan 23, 2019 12:01pm Jan 23, 2019 12:01pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} So....please expand.
SMA50 was pointing down, and so was the Bollinger band - a natural resistance level. You may want to check action around Boll50 historically. These levels should be watched, in my experience.
  • #350
  • Jan 23, 2019 12:42pm Jan 23, 2019 12:42pm
Quoting medici
{quote} SMA50 was pointing down, and so was the Bollinger band - a natural resistance level. You may want to check action around Boll50 historically. These levels should be watched, in my experience.
Thanks for explaining. I've never used Bollinger bands (perhaps I should start!) but I have the SMA50 and LW50 on the 1HR and the 4HR MACD was showing me that yesterday and today's pa was a pullback and not a new impulse wave. I had 26455 - just above the 76.4 fib - as the top of this mornings pullback, but once that broke I figured a kiss on the underside of the trendline support going back to Dec 26th was on the cards - and so it proved to be.
  • #351
  • Jan 23, 2019 1:21pm Jan 23, 2019 1:21pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} Thanks for explaining. I've never used Bollinger bands (perhaps I should start!) but I have the SMA50 and LW50 on the 1HR and the 4HR MACD was showing me that yesterday and today's pa was a pullback and not a new impulse wave. I had 26455 - just above the 76.4 fib - as the top of this mornings pullback, but once that broke I figured a kiss on the underside of the trendline support going back to Dec 26th was on the cards - and so it proved to be.
I also have other MAs on, such as SMA20. See how it guided DJI yesterday, for example. And at today's top SMA20 was beneath SMA50 - not a case for being bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-01-23 at 19.16.44.png Size: 197 KB
  • #352
  • Jan 23, 2019 2:11pm Jan 23, 2019 2:11pm
Quoting medici
{quote} I also have other MAs on, such as SMA20. See how it guided DJI yesterday, for example. And at today's top SMA20 was beneath SMA50 - not a case for being bullish. {image}
Likewise with the Linear Weighted 50 and the SMA 50. The LW capped yesterdays pa at the NY open before the drop, acted as a first line of resistance to the overnight move up and has stayed below the SMA 50 today.
  • #353
  • Jan 24, 2019 1:44am Jan 24, 2019 1:44am
For those who haven't noted, DJI (and S&P 500) have broken out of a rising wedge. That seems to suggest that the correction to the upside is over, and that more chaotic price behaviour can be expected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-01-24 at 07.39.38.png Size: 90 KB
  • #354
  • Jan 25, 2019 2:24am Jan 25, 2019 2:24am
Quoting medici
For those who haven't noted, DJI (and S&P 500) have broken out of a rising wedge. That seems to suggest that the correction to the upside is over, and that more chaotic price behaviour can be expected. {image}
Thanks Medici, I had noticed, and I agree with you that the correction might be over at least the aggressive upside we've seen in the run up to these levels, but I don't see it turning straight back down yet, rather I see a period now of sloppy, extremely volatile range type pa whilst we build a good, solid technical pattern for the next leg down, so perhaps something similar to 2008 when the price did actually keep pushing very hesitantly higher until May. So I think we may well see the price rising still towards the upper limit of my critical range , which is 25,000 on the Dow, maybe as high as 25,200 or so, building towards what could be a significant next leg down sometime within the next few months.
  • #355
  • Jan 25, 2019 4:10am Jan 25, 2019 4:10am
Agreed. It may be weeks or months before another serious sell-off.Taking a simple-minded look at the S&P 500, it has conquered the support level from before the December sell-off, as well as the SMA50. The October sell-off was a break of SMA50, and subsequent sell-offs have been from above SMA200. So, yes, there are no apparent reasons that it couldn't wiggle its way up to SMA200 - another 100 points to the upside - before another sell-off.

And counting Elliott waves in the 4 hour chart (see my previous post) says that we're in wave four - a sideways consolidation - before the final burst upwards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2019-01-25 at 10.03.58.png Size: 126 KB
  • #356
  • Jan 25, 2019 7:35am Jan 25, 2019 7:35am
Quoting medici
Agreed. It may be weeks or months before another serious sell-off.Taking a simple-minded look at the S&P 500, it has conquered the support level from before the December sell-off, as well as the SMA50. The October sell-off was a break of SMA50, and subsequent sell-offs have been from above SMA200. So, yes, there are no apparent reasons that it couldn't wiggle its way up to SMA200 - another 100 points to the upside - before another sell-off. And counting Elliott waves in the 4 hour chart (see my previous post) says that we're in wave four - a sideways...
Great - someone who can read EW a whole lot better than me. What you say about being in a wave 4 makes absolute sense given the erratic pa and I totally misread what was unfolding earlier in the week - too much short term bias as usual. Once a wave 5 completes around the 25000 area or wherever, the question then becomes: does it turn around and plunge to new lows or are we in a larger degree of scale wave 1 (after the Dec low) of a final 5 up - in which case price will drop significantly from 25000 or wherever, but then rocket up in a wave 3 and go on to make a new high above 26950. Anyway I don't want to pontificate on EW too much as I know cat thinks it's gobbledegook and it's his thread,
  • #357
  • Jan 25, 2019 7:53am Jan 25, 2019 7:53am
Quoting tomase
{quote} Great - someone who can read EW a whole lot better than me. What you say about being in a wave 4 makes absolute sense given the erratic pa and I totally misread what was unfolding earlier in the week - too much short term bias as usual. Once a wave 5 completes around the 25000 area or wherever, the question then becomes: does it turn around and plunge to new lows or are we in a larger degree of scale wave 1 (after the Dec low) of a final 5 up - in which case price will drop significantly from 25000 or wherever, but then rocket up in a wave...
Yes there's a lot of gobbledegook purported as "Elliott Wave Theory", I agree. But there are some genuine insight underneath. I learned the little I know from Tony Plummer's Forecasting Financial Markets - a brilliant book by a market practitioner. See also http://www.helmsman-economics.com. But, yes, let's not clutter the thread with discussions about these things.
  • #358
  • Jan 25, 2019 11:01am Jan 25, 2019 11:01am
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes there's a lot of gobbledegook purported as "Elliott Wave Theory", I agree. But there are some genuine insight underneath. I learned the little I know from Tony Plummer's Forecasting Financial Markets - a brilliant book by a market practitioner. See also http://www.helmsman-economics.com. But, yes, let's not clutter the thread with discussions about these things.
Thanks - I'll take a look. I also have the Robert Prechter book somewhere.
  • #359
  • Jan 25, 2019 1:36pm Jan 25, 2019 1:36pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} Anyway I don't want to pontificate on EW too much as I know cat thinks it's gobbledegook and it's his thread,


Oh I never said that, I just don't use them and have never studied them, so I welcome anything from which I and others can learn, Elliot Wave and all!
  • #360
  • Jan 25, 2019 2:17pm Jan 25, 2019 2:17pm
Dax traders it's worth paying attention to some pretty strong looking diversion on H4 and H6. I use just MACD along the bottom of my charts, and the 12/26/9 ribbon, though still unconfirmed, looks pretty nice for a possible fall from current levels. I would have posted this earlier but I was away all day, so just checking back in now to see how the day unfolded.
2 traders viewing now