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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #281
  • Jan 11, 2019 1:13am Jan 11, 2019 1:13am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} My TP hit overnight whilst asleep at 23980 We are at a potential rejection level to downside, but if not, then it's definitely a buy at 23789-23800, will adjust potential entry level closer to NYSE open time.
Dax30 to 11447ish... over next week or so is my best guess. Buy the dips.
  • #282
  • Jan 11, 2019 1:45am Jan 11, 2019 1:45am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Dax30 to 11447ish... over next week or so is my best guess. Buy the dips.
H6 200ema is smack bang on top of 11,000, which might be tough to crack. If it can get above that, then next R I would say is the 61.8% from the Dec 3rd high.
  • #283
  • Jan 11, 2019 1:53am Jan 11, 2019 1:53am
Quoting cat
{quote} H6 200ema is smack bang on top of 11,000, which might be tough to crack. If it can get above that, then next R I would say is the 61.8% from the Dec 3rd high.
Yeah, true.

My key support is 11875 if we get the dip on XO, or 11815 should very be solid for today.
  • #284
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:09am Jan 11, 2019 5:09am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Yeah, true. My key support is 11875 if we get the dip on XO, or 11815 should very be solid for today.
Bottomed around where I expected, 4H 20sma, right to the pip.
  • #285
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:43am Jan 11, 2019 6:43am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Yeah, true. My key support is 11875 if we get the dip on XO, or 11815 should very be solid for today.
That 11815 has moved up to 11846, Daily 7sma. So we may have hit that near bottom on the second dip. We also had 4H 200sma support on that low too. Let's see which way the Yanks push it later today.

However, Daily on Dax looks like almost a perfect V shape, which could signal the start of the next down wave. Daily 7sma the key on the close.
  • #286
  • Edited 1:36am Jan 14, 2019 12:18am | Edited 1:36am
I am thinking 4H 100ema at 10758, or 10700 BRN, or 10680 on 38.2%. Could be on the cards today or tomorrow.

Maybe short the rallies, but be careful. 10854, 10859, 10872 - potential short levels.
  • #287
  • Edited 9:27am Jan 15, 2019 9:16am | Edited 9:27am
Yet again - a decisive rejection at the 76.4 fib from this morning's move down on the Dow. Let's see if it follows through and finally buries this dead cat.
  • #288
  • Jan 16, 2019 2:39am Jan 16, 2019 2:39am
I still have the Dow moving higher, and the levels I posted above still hold for me.

On the Dax, 11,000 is a massive resistance level. It was rejected again decisively yesterday, so that also has to break before a clean move higher, but atm, this looks like pretty solid resistance.
  • #289
  • Jan 16, 2019 5:22am Jan 16, 2019 5:22am
The Dow has been turned south at that level (24120) I mentioned in post #266 - to the pip. The NY session should confirm whether or not that holds as solid resistance. We'll soon see.
  • #290
  • Edited 8:21am Jan 16, 2019 8:04am | Edited 8:21am
And we did. Next! Talking of which, the next band to watch for me is the 24250-24280 area which marks the November weekly and monthly lows.
  • #291
  • Edited 10:00am Jan 16, 2019 9:47am | Edited 10:00am
Using herd psychology, which as a matter of fact, is the only thing which moves the markets, the big indecis are unlikely to turn south without some major resistance having been tested. Personally, I do not have any such resistance where we are now, on any of the indecis I'm watching, but, we are inching towards such levels with each day that passes. Dow is dipping a bit atm off of a medium strength resistance level, and so is the Dax off of another similar resistance level, just fractionally below the 76.4% ( yes, that 76.4% level again!) from yesterday's high. It also double topped with this morning's high, so selling on Dax should bring the price back down to 10,890ish if it can get below today's central pivot. The Dow much less predictable, but it could now drop back to 24,050 or so this afternoon, or, as the Dow can easily do, it can turn right round and put in new highs for the day, which of course, would also bring Dax with it as New York almost always leads in the pm session.
  • #292
  • Jan 16, 2019 12:01pm Jan 16, 2019 12:01pm
Back up to the D1 200ema on the Dow then - which no doubt the herd and his dog will be watching.
  • #293
  • Jan 16, 2019 12:19pm Jan 16, 2019 12:19pm
Quoting tomase
Back up to the D1 200ema on the Dow then - which no doubt the herd and his dog will be watching.
Yup...anywhere from 350 to 25,000 this bouncy moggy can turn back south.
  • #294
  • Jan 17, 2019 2:31am Jan 17, 2019 2:31am
Late in the NY session last night, the Dow rose to within 50 pip;s of its 61.8% fib from the Dec 3rd high. Dax has dropped pretty precipitously during the Asian session, and continues to do so, with potential support already hit at 10,820, and then a little further down on the H2 200ema at 10,800.

This selling is technical as far as I can see, as Dax triple topped yesterday just beneath 11,000, which as I've already noted, is a massive resistance level for the Dax.

The Dow has also come off its 2 day 200ema almost to the pip, ( 2 day charts posted above ) which could be very significant, and as I type, the 2 day candle, which closes tonight, is a very bearish shooting star. A lot can change in a day though, so we'll have to wait and see whether this selling continues or not.
  • #295
  • Jan 17, 2019 3:22am Jan 17, 2019 3:22am
The high was around the 22250 levels for YM (the Dow e-mini futures contract). The very high volume 19.52 (UK time) candle was the sign of what was to come.

That was the January high, methinks, and wild volatility might be back
  • #296
  • Jan 17, 2019 4:29am Jan 17, 2019 4:29am
Quoting medici
The high was around the 22250 levels for YM (the Dow e-mini futures contract). The very high volume 19.52 (UK time) candle was the sign of what was to come. That was the January high, methinks, and wild volatility might be back
Don't you just love Thursdays! Ballistic fight back on the Dax - up, down, up almost back to the Asian high. Not sure about this being the Jan high on the Dow, could be of course, but I have an interesting resistance level a bit higher, right up there on the 61.8% around 350, so we'll see what happens there if it can push higher than last night's high.

We're in or close to my potential turn around zone, so yes, there's going to be some wicked volatility going forward I think.
  • #297
  • Jan 17, 2019 7:41am Jan 17, 2019 7:41am
Quoting cat
{quote} Don't you just love Thursdays! Ballistic fight back on the Dax - up, down, up almost back to the Asian high. Not sure about this being the Jan high on the Dow, could be of course, but I have an interesting resistance level a bit higher, right up there on the 61.8% around 350, so we'll see what happens there if it can push higher than last night's high. We're in or close to my potential turn around zone, so yes, there's going to be some wicked volatility going forward I think.
Yes, beautiful morning with the sun coming out after the sleet, and the markets moving

But I've given up DAX. YM seems to be where the action is, and it's very easily traded in the mornings.
  • #298
  • Jan 17, 2019 8:10am Jan 17, 2019 8:10am
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes, beautiful morning with the sun coming out after the sleet, and the markets moving But I've given up DAX. YM seems to be where the action is, and it's very easily traded in the mornings.
  • #299
  • Edited 8:51am Jan 17, 2019 8:40am | Edited 8:51am
Anyone looking to short the Dow today, just watch the 350-400 level, or if you want me to be a bit more precise, 370, provided it gets up there of course. If it does, and just blows through it, then obviously that's the end of that, but if it stutters, then it'll be worth watching very closely. Just as hunch!

ps - If it's the S&P you trade, then the number to watch will be approx 2,640, again, if it gets there, which is a big question mark.
  • #300
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:27am Jan 17, 2019 9:27am
Quoting cat
Anyone looking to short the Dow today, just watch the 350-400 level, or if you want me to be a bit more precise, 370, provided it gets up there of course. If it does, and just blows through it, then obviously that's the end of that, but if it stutters, then it'll be worth watching very closely. Just as hunch! ps - If it's the S&P you trade, then the number to watch will be approx 2,640, again, if it gets there, which is a big question mark.
Stutters iyt does. I took a short from today's open. Let's see if it breaks above that at all. I don't think so.
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