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  • #1,147,441
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:07am Jan 4, 2019 8:07am
Trump is gettin ready to tweet about the outstanding data
  • #1,147,442
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:14am Jan 4, 2019 8:14am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} NFP strong green numbers ...EUR/USD first spike down, as expected Let's hear Powell later (expected dovish)
That's some fookin margin for error.

Quoting TudorIoan
Ok, all I'm saying is that EUR/USD has the opportunity to break that 1300 - 1500 range today on crucial NFP data. Alors, mesdames et messieurs, faites vos jeux s'il vous plait ! {image}
  • #1,147,443
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:41am Jan 4, 2019 8:41am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} That's some fookin margin for error. {quote}
Yeah, so what?! I can afford it ...because I'm gorgeous!
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Member
  • #1,147,444
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:42am Jan 4, 2019 8:42am
what just happend with gold? from 1297 to 1280 ?
  • #1,147,445
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:47am Jan 4, 2019 8:47am
Quoting From0toHero
what just happend with gold? from 1297 to 1280 ?
Are you kidding?
Gold and JPY are safe heaven "assets" in case of panic on markets!
US macro economy good numbers = > USD+equities feels better! ...Gold and JPY don't
Member
  • #1,147,446
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:47am Jan 4, 2019 8:47am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Are you kidding? Gold and JPY are safe heaven "assets" in case of panic on markets! US macro economy good numbers = > USD+equities feels better! ...Gold and JPY don't
just checking you :-)
  • #1,147,447
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:49am Jan 4, 2019 8:49am
Quoting From0toHero
{quote} just checking you :-)
I thought so...
Member
  • #1,147,448
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:16am Jan 4, 2019 9:16am
Here a short HEW update about the view I have currently...

yes indeed ... I have a strong bearish view for the EURUSD

and ofcourse ...as always I also prepared for a surprise somewhere....
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You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,449
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:32am Jan 4, 2019 9:32am
Quoting HappyMe
Here a short HEW update about the view I have currently... yes indeed ... I have a strong bearish view for the EURUSD and ofcourse ...as always I also prepared for a surprise somewhere.... {image} {image} {image}
I'm to rushed with this update..... be patient....be patient....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,147,450
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:41am Jan 4, 2019 9:41am
thank you Mr Powell
  • #1,147,451
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:42am Jan 4, 2019 9:42am
Short ready at 1.1445.

I think many traders where short,that hurts.
  • #1,147,452
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:50am Jan 4, 2019 9:50am
Why it says "You don't have trade explorer" when I have one?

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  • #1,147,453
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:53am Jan 4, 2019 9:53am
I'm out of my short. Don't like this move and don't understand it. Flat for now.
I wanna be a billionaire so freaking bad!
  • #1,147,454
  • Jan 5, 2019 6:24am Jan 5, 2019 6:24am
Quoting MXT
Trump is gettin ready to tweet about the outstanding data
Member
  • #1,147,455
  • Jan 5, 2019 8:15am Jan 5, 2019 8:15am
Market Profile Basics
  • #1,147,456
  • Jan 5, 2019 8:29am Jan 5, 2019 8:29am
EURUSD
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #1,147,457
  • Jan 5, 2019 8:50am Jan 5, 2019 8:50am
Quoting Replicant
I think we had a very dovish FED and that it confirmed Powell's speech at Economic Club of New Yor on Nov 28. It's a major game changer for the Dollar and all the related pairs. Of course, that's a Central Bank so they have to make any changes as smoothly as possible for the markets. They can't change aggressively their statements neither their forecasts. So there is always a defensive posturing in any shift but what is important is what one can read between the lines. Mario Draghi has turned out to be pretty sharp on that kind of stuff, probably...
=> All super checked I think.

Quoting Replicant
... We will see soon if markets received the message on if an interview of Jerome Powell in the WSJ is needed. If not, they will probably need to adapt their statement at next FOMC...
=> We didn't have an interview in the WSJ but a round table discussion with JY and BB in Atlanta.

Quoting Replicant
...In the press conference, Powell was very very dovish on inflation. He acknowledged that despite 2018 very strong growth, "inflation has continued to surprise to the downside". This point, inflation, is really key, the raison d'être of hikes. ...
=> The very very dovish outlook on inflation at last FOMC was confirmed yesterday. It was heavily backed by JY. That's key. No inflation pressure, no hikes. Monetary policy 101. Especially when CB expects a growth slowdown as well. Futures already show average markets expectations for 2019 are 0 hike with a thin probability for 1 hike. FED dot plot at last FOMC was showing a revision down to 2 hikes but ... :

Quoting Replicant
... Of course, that's a Central Bank so they have to make any changes as smoothly as possible for the markets. They can't change aggressively their statements neither their forecasts. So there is always a defensive posturing in any shift but what is important is what one can read between the lines.. ...
=> Yesterday's discussion confirmed the defensive posturing in last FED statement & press conference. They couldn't make a sharp u-turn in their forecast. Let's not forget they were über hawkish last September meeting ("...a long way from neutral..."), forecasting 3 more hikes in 2019 and hinting they will still be on "autopilot" for hikes. They tried to change that bias in their statement at last December meeting but their message was not very clear :

Quoting Replicant
... Leaving the "further gradual increases" in the statement was probably a mistake because after the conference press that came after the release, there was no doubt any more that now FED is strictly data dependent and not any more on autopilot for hikes, whereas this "further gradual increase" still hints hikes on autopilot in the collective unconscious of markets.. ...
=> now after yesterday's discussion, it is.
"... no preset path [for rasing rates] ..." , "... [FED is] always prepared to shift the stance of policy and to shift it significantly ... " , "... we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves... " (that last one kills definitely any expectations for a hike till at least next June FOMC)

Quoting Replicant
... I think we had a very dovish FED and that it confirmed Powell's speech at Economic Club of New Yor on Nov 28. It's a major game changer for the Dollar and all the related pairs. ...
=> The major game changer for the Dollar is now confirmed. We have reached the end of the rates cycle. Sure it's not yet a fact, just heavy expectations but these are what markets trade. The fact EUR/USD was holding at these levels after the last hike and the huge differential rate was already a strong hint of what markets were tracking/waiting for imo. Now, all is clear on the USD side. Ceteris paribus on the EUR side (lately PMI and inflation (not core inflation though) disappointed in EZ but external and temporary factors might explain them (oil price, strikes/demonstrations)), one should now expect markets to solve the big chop/accumulation zone we've been trading for 2 months to the upside. Reversal of the daily downtrend will come with a break up of 1.155x with a maximum flow to 1.1650 until further Macro data (on both sides) but top of MT range 1.18xx will be unlocked TA wise. To the downside, 1.131x is the usual suspect, with 1.126x extrem bottom ; if taken it's direct 1.118x.

=> As importantly I think, in US Equities we are back in BTFD. A very dovish FED with Macro Data overall still holding and decent (although lately it's a mixed bag probably announcing a more important slowdown in the MT) is a super combo for Equities. For ES, I have 2585, 2630 and 2723 as targets. Any dip on any miss/flop in Macro Data should be bought imo in the ST via the super dovish FED that should provide a deep retrace/dead cat bounce. For the MT if Macro data fail to hold as it is expected, I think we should expect, after the retrace, a new leg down to 218x and 211x.
  • #1,147,458
  • Jan 5, 2019 10:27am Jan 5, 2019 10:27am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} => All super checked I think. {quote} => We didn't have an interview in the WSJ but a round table discussion with JY and BB in Atlanta. {quote} => The very very dovish outlook on inflation at last FOMC was confirmed yesterday. It was heavily backed by JY. That's key. No inflation pressure, no hikes. Monetary policy 101. Especially when CB expects a growth slowdown as well. Futures already show average markets expectations for 2019 are 0 hike with a thin probability for 1 hike. FED dot plot at last FOMC was showing a revision down to 2 hikes...
Nice work! Thanks
Good luck at Rick's cafe!
Member
  • #1,147,459
  • Jan 6, 2019 12:52am Jan 6, 2019 12:52am
Ranging & extended ranging & play lows may not over yet , vacation 20 days though doing only minimum only shorts in relative buy zone though for both eu & gu & nu gave me enough without much risk . and still continues till confident or one more tanking to bottom to start all buy only for medium term . anyway trading before own old computer screen & charts sitting on old haggard chair is much different than seeing web based charts & apps trading mode !! Thanks take care
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,147,460
  • Edited 7:00am Jan 6, 2019 6:46am | Edited 7:00am
my idea for monday
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