have euro long 1.1414 targeting 1.1495 mental stop around 1.1389
2
- #1,147,262
- Dec 21, 2018 4:45am Dec 21, 2018 4:45am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 820 Posts
US House Speaker Ryan said US President Trump wouldn't sign senate-approved funding bill, adding that Trump wants to see an agreement that protects the border. US President Trump earlier stated that he will not sign any legislation "unless it has a perfect border security".
White House Economic Advisor Hassett said fundamentals of US economy are strong, very low chance of GDP growth below 2% next year given the economy.
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he is still confident we can deliver 3% growth in 2019, think we will see rebalancing out of bonds into equities.
FX markets were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar, and as the USD traded within a narrow range for most of the session before testing 96.500 to the upside. As such, EUR/USD held onto most its recent gains with the pair hovering just under 1.1450, ahead of its 100 DMA at 1.1484.
Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD:
1.1300 (3.0 BLN), 1.1325 (1.0 BLN), 1.1350 (1.5 BLN), 1.1400 (1.4 BLN), 1.1435-50 (3 BLN), 1.1455-75 (1.5 BLN) and 1.1500 (2.1 BLN).
Come on Santa, give a push to my target at 1.1300.
White House Economic Advisor Hassett said fundamentals of US economy are strong, very low chance of GDP growth below 2% next year given the economy.
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he is still confident we can deliver 3% growth in 2019, think we will see rebalancing out of bonds into equities.
FX markets were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar, and as the USD traded within a narrow range for most of the session before testing 96.500 to the upside. As such, EUR/USD held onto most its recent gains with the pair hovering just under 1.1450, ahead of its 100 DMA at 1.1484.
Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD:
1.1300 (3.0 BLN), 1.1325 (1.0 BLN), 1.1350 (1.5 BLN), 1.1400 (1.4 BLN), 1.1435-50 (3 BLN), 1.1455-75 (1.5 BLN) and 1.1500 (2.1 BLN).Come on Santa, give a push to my target at 1.1300.
- #1,147,263
- Dec 21, 2018 5:01am Dec 21, 2018 5:01am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Saudi Arabia/Dubai | 3,584 Posts
- #1,147,264
- Edited 8:23am Dec 21, 2018 7:14am | Edited 8:23am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,798 Posts
{quote} a little complication... this abc is tuning into an a - (expandet)flat as b - c zigzag {image}
Forget it... I don't trust this..... maybe we also saw the ABC already
I just wait and see now!
See here
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
- #1,147,265
- Edited 12:46pm Dec 22, 2018 10:28am | Edited 12:46pm
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,079 Posts
- #1,147,266
- Dec 23, 2018 8:35am Dec 23, 2018 8:35am
I think we had a very dovish FED and that it confirmed Powell's speech at Economic Club of New Yor on Nov 28. It's a major game changer for the Dollar and all the related pairs.
Of course, that's a Central Bank so they have to make any changes as smoothly as possible for the markets. They can't change aggressively their statements neither their forecasts. So there is always a defensive posturing in any shift but what is important is what one can read between the lines. Mario Draghi has turned out to be pretty sharp on that kind of stuff, probably because he has been dealing with 19 different economic and social policies for 7 years. Jerome Powell less at a first glance.
Leaving the "further gradual increases" in the statement was probably a mistake because after the conference press that came after the release, there was no doubt any more that now FED is strictly data dependent and not any more on autopilot for hikes, whereas this "further gradual increase" still hints hikes on autopilot in the collective unconscious of markets. They had to send John Williams for the after sale service to explain the semantic differences between "expect" and "judge", the latter one replacing now the first one in the statement. As a non-native English speaker, it was fun to watch and I chuckled a few times. Not sure DT did. But FED message was now clearer at least I think. We will see soon if markets received the message on if an interview of Jerome Powell in the WSJ is needed. If not, they will probably need to adapt their statement at next FOMC.
But yes I think they were very dovish : 
For the MT, in EURUSD :
I think we are in Accumulation for the MT. Current leg (1.255x-->1.121x) is only a dead cat bounce/retrace. MT/LT flows to the upside should resume in 2019. MT Reversal Up comes with a break of 1.182x. With targets at 1.191x, 1.215x, 1.255x and beyond.
Of course, that's a Central Bank so they have to make any changes as smoothly as possible for the markets. They can't change aggressively their statements neither their forecasts. So there is always a defensive posturing in any shift but what is important is what one can read between the lines. Mario Draghi has turned out to be pretty sharp on that kind of stuff, probably because he has been dealing with 19 different economic and social policies for 7 years. Jerome Powell less at a first glance.
Leaving the "further gradual increases" in the statement was probably a mistake because after the conference press that came after the release, there was no doubt any more that now FED is strictly data dependent and not any more on autopilot for hikes, whereas this "further gradual increase" still hints hikes on autopilot in the collective unconscious of markets. They had to send John Williams for the after sale service to explain the semantic differences between "expect" and "judge", the latter one replacing now the first one in the statement. As a non-native English speaker, it was fun to watch and I chuckled a few times. Not sure DT did. But FED message was now clearer at least I think. We will see soon if markets received the message on if an interview of Jerome Powell in the WSJ is needed. If not, they will probably need to adapt their statement at next FOMC.
But yes I think they were very dovish :
- They acknowledged the growth slowdown and revised down 2019 GDP by 0.2% to 2.3% only. It's obviously still decent but modest regarding 2018 figures.
- Their projection for the inflation were also revised down. All PCE were revised down and barely reaching in 2019 their 2% "symmetrical" (on top) target. In the press conference, Powell was very very dovish on inflation. He acknowledged that despite 2018 very strong growth, "inflation has continued to surprise to the downside". This point, inflation, is really key, the raison d'être of hikes. And how one could imagine that now with slower growth and energy prices falling we will have inflation surprising to the upside and a risk of an overheated economy ?
- They also acknowledged downside risks on the economy in the statement (last paragraph) and in the press conference.
- The Dot Plots show 2 hikes and 1 hike for 2019 and 2020 respectively. Sure, on that point, if we look at markets consensus prior to the FOMC, it's only dovish and not very dovish (1 hike 2019 + 0 hike 2020). But, we have to remember that at last September FOMC (only 3 months ago !) projections for 2019 were 3 hikes. They couldn't reasonably shift from 3 to 1 hike in 3 months whereas macro data were still holding and as importantly, because, as said above, a CB has to make changes as smoothly as possible for markets. In that regard, revising down to 2 hikes and hinting these hikes will be strictly data dependent was perfect imo. Moreover, if we look at the details, FOMC participant's' projections show, it's 11 vs 6 for 2 hikes in 2019 (meaning 3 changing their mind will be enough to flip the decision), and for 2020, it's only 9 vs 8 for 1 hike (meaning 1 changing his projection will be enough).
For the ST, in EURUSD :
I think 1.155x is the one to track. Breaking up that level, bulls will reverse the downtrend on daily and will unlock the top of the ST range 1.182x with 1.164x and 1.170x as intermediate targets. It will probably leave a wide chop zone [1.12 ; 1.18] until we know which one of the currency will make the biggest noise with the WW slowdown in the MT. My call is USD has more margin to the downside.
For 1.155x, I think it's very simple. It just depends if markets finally read FED as very dovish ; otherwise it's just more chop in [1.12 - 1.155x] until Macro Data start to disappoint in the US.
For the MT, in EURUSD :
I think we are in Accumulation for the MT. Current leg (1.255x-->1.121x) is only a dead cat bounce/retrace. MT/LT flows to the upside should resume in 2019. MT Reversal Up comes with a break of 1.182x. With targets at 1.191x, 1.215x, 1.255x and beyond.
- #1,147,268
- Dec 24, 2018 12:26am Dec 24, 2018 12:26am
- | Joined Jul 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,514 Posts
buy the rumor,sell the news
- #1,147,269
- Edited 2:48am Dec 24, 2018 2:30am | Edited 2:48am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,798 Posts
Here is my HEW update: click here
Did upload it yeserday evening on the HEW thread but forget to give the link here...
Did upload it yeserday evening on the HEW thread but forget to give the link here...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
- #1,147,270
- Dec 24, 2018 4:46am Dec 24, 2018 4:46am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 820 Posts
The USD index remained sub-97.000 and continued to ease and print fresh session lows ahead of the holiday-shortened week. Reports that US President Trump has discussed firing Fed Chair Powell, however, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin attempted to calm markets by stating that he doesn’t believe Trump has this right. EUR/USD benefitted from the easing greenback as the former edged closer to the 1.1400 handle.
Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: None of significance nearby price action.
Still holding my short at 1.1460 with a target at 1.1300 and a stop at 1.1505.
Merry Christmas every one.
Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 GMT:
EUR/USD: None of significance nearby price action.
Still holding my short at 1.1460 with a target at 1.1300 and a stop at 1.1505.
Merry Christmas every one.
- #1,147,271
- Dec 24, 2018 5:24am Dec 24, 2018 5:24am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
Member
- #1,147,272
- Dec 24, 2018 9:42am Dec 24, 2018 9:42am
- Joined Jan 2018 | Status: Trader | 17,298 Posts
Merry Christmas everyone
- #1,147,275
- Dec 25, 2018 11:15am Dec 25, 2018 11:15am
- | Joined Mar 2010 | Status: out | 775 Posts
Useful levels. Good luck! {image}
LOL!!! I see that you have me on ignore.....looks like you have half of FF on ignore so I am in good company!!!
- #1,147,278
- Dec 26, 2018 3:58am Dec 26, 2018 3:58am
I am shorting again from 1.1400
- #1,147,279
- Dec 26, 2018 4:02am Dec 26, 2018 4:02am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,414 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++