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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #473,221
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:02am Jan 4, 2019 8:02am
the monthly failed already
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #473,222
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:06am Jan 4, 2019 8:06am
claimed as a bullish success
I'm so arrogant
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #473,223
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:38am Jan 4, 2019 8:38am
Quoting Bones
claimed as a bullish success I'm so arrogant {image}
Support held, that is all I referred to. Yesterday's H4 candle, despite breaking below 1,2500, closed above it, which is significant in my opinion. As opposed to you Bones, I never claim anything as categorical, and I never, ever, assume that I am right and others are wrong. I offer my opinion and analysis, sometimes with charts, sometimes without, and leave it for others to respond if they want to. You responded, but initially you were not interested in why I believed cable might be at a significant support level, all you were interested in doing was rubbishing my opinion in favour of the certainty of yours. Why then should I bother now to post a chart for someone who is so sure of the validity of their own opinion to the exclusion of all others. I wouldn't would I, and in case you or others are wondering what I am talking about, here's our short verbal intercourse from December 11th.

Cat - " All I said, was that according to my analysis, cable was on a potential support zone at 1,2500, nothing more. We shall see if it holds. "
Bones - " It won't. You're wrong because you're not looking at the right chart, simple. Later, you can quote me when I'm wrong. "

Now, I'm not saying cable won't break down through 1,2500, and I never did. I'm just saying that according to my own charts, there is potentially strong support there, and I say it in full realization that I may be wrong and with the utmost respect for the opinions of others, something that Bones, judging from his posts, frequently lacks.
  • #473,224
  • Jan 4, 2019 11:42am Jan 4, 2019 11:42am
Interesting caparison; nice utilization of the step there from the cable.
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  • #473,225
  • Jan 4, 2019 11:55am Jan 4, 2019 11:55am
Quoting TheJoker
Interesting caparison; nice utilization of the step there from the cable. {image}
GBP is overvalued at the moment in my opinion. 1.27 is fine but look at the chart I uploaded, then I think the 1.27 is not the right value. I assume those are market exits running up the price to 1.27+

Same for ZAR at the moment, it is under 14. Which it should *definitely* not be.

I expect a correction before the end of the day.

Note, this is my humble opinion. Not advising anyone. Just interesting to note.
  • #473,226
  • Jan 4, 2019 11:59am Jan 4, 2019 11:59am
Quoting TheJoker
{quote} GBP is overvalued at the moment in my opinion. 1.27 is fine but look at the chart I uploaded, then I think the 1.27 is not the right value. I assume those are market exits running up the price to 1.27+ Same for ZAR at the moment, it is under 14. Which it should *definitely* not be. I expect a correction before the end of the day. Note, this is my humble opinion. Not advising anyone. Just interesting to note.
Have a look at the zar.
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  • #473,227
  • Jan 4, 2019 12:10pm Jan 4, 2019 12:10pm
Quoting TheJoker
{quote} GBP is overvalued at the moment in my opinion. 1.27 is fine but look at the chart I uploaded, then I think the 1.27 is not the right value. I assume those are market exits running up the price to 1.27+ Same for ZAR at the moment, it is under 14. Which it should *definitely* not be. I expect a correction before the end of the day. Note, this is my humble opinion. Not advising anyone. Just interesting to note.
Perhaps Bullard's speech can trigger a correction? Shrugs.
  • #473,228
  • Jan 4, 2019 1:40pm Jan 4, 2019 1:40pm
Quoting Bones
125 has not held {image}
IMO it did. That wick was a result of the flash crash.

I'm still bearish on the cable, though I have no open trades. Waiting for another valid sell signal.
when you can accurately predict the future, you leave nothing to chance.
  • #473,229
  • Jan 4, 2019 1:47pm Jan 4, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting zizoo
{quote} IMO it did. That wick was a result of the flash crash. I'm still bearish on the cable, though I have no open trades. Waiting for another valid sell signal.
Monthly resistance on 1.2770

Good sell area 12740(now)-1.2770

If latter gets penetrated, there's a long way up to 1.3000-1.3050

I doubt that, cable will retrace down soon till end of month at least since we had been in ranging market for sometime..

There must be very strong buying power to penetrate 1.2770 and base above it
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #473,230
  • Jan 4, 2019 3:20pm Jan 4, 2019 3:20pm
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monthly . Will it start to go dark from here so yes if your looking to short it does look like a good place . But what if it sees the lighter candle ? The choice is yours
  • #473,231
  • Jan 4, 2019 3:22pm Jan 4, 2019 3:22pm
Quoting elbert3
{image} monthly . Will it start to go dark from here so yes if your looking to short it does look like a good place . But what if it sees the lighter candle ? The choice is yours
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5 min
  • #473,232
  • Jan 4, 2019 5:08pm Jan 4, 2019 5:08pm
it might get bullish till 1.2780 then drop. tough to tell this as crash has altered a few things
  • #473,233
  • Jan 4, 2019 5:13pm Jan 4, 2019 5:13pm
gbpusd 1.30 first then drop to 1.19xxxx
eurusd is a fire while the drop


no need for chart , chart is useless.


Paw
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #473,234
  • Jan 4, 2019 6:55pm Jan 4, 2019 6:55pm
shorted at 2740
PA Return Today: 0.3%
  • #473,235
  • Jan 4, 2019 11:01pm Jan 4, 2019 11:01pm
Quoting TheJoker
{quote} Why I keep hearing this? Yes the chart for Oct-Nov 2018 went to 1.3 but with the current situation about brex and us soon-to-open, I don't see us hitting 1.3 even if we break 1.27. Just my opinion.
I observed this from price behaviour which has been consistent from 2014. Whenever the rate moves away from opening price by 120 pips or more and returns to the opening price, it means reversal is imminent. This January price opened at 1.2735 and slid to 1.2440 (295 pips below opening price) then it has made its way back to the opening price. This will open a bullish movement to 1.2970 - 1.3000 region. Simply price behaviour irrespective of fundamental noises.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #473,236
  • Jan 4, 2019 11:53pm Jan 4, 2019 11:53pm
Quoting Bones
cats looking at the daily ,why he came back after his stop was blasted, but it's not reliable {quote} {image}
I am camping so am away from computer, but what does a line look like connecting 3 of the 4 daily candles before the big drop? ie: the 1st, 2nd and last candle before the drop, in context of Fridays PA? Did we see a retest?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #473,237
  • Jan 5, 2019 2:06am Jan 5, 2019 2:06am
Quoting elbert3
{image} monthly . Will it start to go dark from here so yes if your looking to short it does look like a good place . But what if it sees the lighter candle ? The choice is yours
Simply, you'll have to go long(basing from 1.2770) as it will be a breakout toward 1.30..as stated in my previous comment...

The main doubt here, does market have that enough volatility(other than the manipulated crash few days ago) and cable bulls power? Also considering Brexit.

A sudden big news is the only option to drive it real up or downward again to test the previous crash levels.

Still we have on the way down 1.2660-70 followed by 1.2550-60

A retrace to the first is more probable to strengthen that support before bulls try again upward if possible
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #473,238
  • Edited 4:59am Jan 5, 2019 4:46am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting fontu
{quote} Looks so, will see soon. Check eu and usdx future situation. May not much different! https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post11845137 OK pullback to decide next tanking likely!pending there I see set last night on flight at and above 1.2673 to catch 2360/2222 if {image} {image}
Just rechecking, nice bull try and may continue to 2850/2900 ok in daily and lower tf, may not hold as per weekly and higher tf though. That is ranges high and risky still.
In Smaller tf test tl around 2680 - to bo possible for 2540 or do to try bull but if bo can take as failure mode to do for 2850+.that is to do at tl.
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #473,239
  • Jan 5, 2019 7:39am Jan 5, 2019 7:39am
early prediction : Sideway expected early next week.
decision will be on Tuesday, US session.
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  • #473,240
  • Jan 5, 2019 8:43am Jan 5, 2019 8:43am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} I observed this from price behaviour which has been consistent from 2014. Whenever the rate moves away from opening price by 120 pips or more and returns to the opening price, it means reversal is imminent. This January price opened at 1.2735 and slid to 1.2440 (295 pips below opening price) then it has made its way back to the opening price. This will open a bullish movement to 1.2970 - 1.3000 region. Simply price behaviour irrespective of fundamental noises.
Thank you for providing an interesting explanation.

I would certainly like to do a historic test to see how accurate your statement about 120 pips is. Not that I am arguing; I am just curious because 120 pips is a very specific number and should be easily testable. Once I have a bit of time I will write some code to test this.

In my humble uninformed opinion, during the time of 2014-2017 there were many more uncertainties than there are today in the world in general but specific to the USD. NK is no longer an imminent threat, Syria is no longer spoken of, Palastine is quiet; China is loosing steam, Brexit is confirmed, Greece has been brought to "under control", US political funny season is over, the price of Oil is not forecasted to reach anywhere close to $110 again (never mind $160), the cryptocurrency scene has been established; the Russian Ruble has been all but eliminated as an economic threat, the type of actions to expect from Trump's is no longer an unknown. These are all things that affect the USD more than the pound and they are all firmly under control, unlike in the year 2014. Only major current uncertainty for the short term is the funding of the wall and the oh-so-lovable FOMC.

Unlike the usd, the pound still has major unresolved uncertainties, spanning a from politics, to economics, all related to brexit either directly or indirectly. In the long run the GBP may or may not fly, but in the short term I cannot see how any sort of transition would go smoothly for the GBP in 2019. Look for example, how they had to rush to appoint a ferrying company that has never ferried (has never owned a ship of any sort) to ensure everything goes smoothly yet the company itself has said that it won't be ready in time.
Let us also not forget about the man who broke the bank of England during the last round, ever lurking behind the scenes.

If I were looking only at the charts, then sure, 1.32 is possible but when I look at the news, I don't think it is probable.

The one big thing that can really drive the GBP up is the weakening of the EUR. Here there are many possibilities, but it is clear the EU will fight with everything it has to keep as much power as possible. It is also clear that the EU wil try to make an example out of the GBP to deter other countries from leaving.

As always, this is just my humble rookie opinion. I may be 103% wrong.
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