Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#79,701
Jan 3, 2019 8:20am Jan 3, 2019 8:20am

Replicant
Joined Jul 2015 | Status: Trader | 843 Posts

Quoting hellsbells

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I'm keen to see what others are thinking for their weekly/monthly charts, and in general. Is this UJ dump an anomaly, or not? Looking at my weekly chart, If it stays below 108.8 by the end of the week will it continue straight south, or will this week form the most amazing hammer of all time ?? Any ideas anyone? BTW those mauve crosses you can see are where I TP on my shorts up above 111.8. DOH !!!!! I just added a lower TL putting UJ in the pointy end of a weekly flag ( NB, I'm not sure if a flag can be re entered per se once it has broken out....

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I would try to map the flows on Weekly as in the chart below.

I think the MT dynamic on UJ is the following :

1) reversal down on Q1 2018 via DT starting trade wars (=> bad expectations for global growth in the MT/LT because of trade wars - just economics 101)

2) deep retrace/dead cat bounce from Q2 2018 to Q3 2018

3) new reversal down in the making now on facts (expectations becoming slowly facts) : that one should trigger the impulsive part of the MT move (with a final target deep below 100?). I think now only DT finding a deal with China and stopping tariffs threats on EZ (in short, ending trade wars) will abort it.

Shaking my head for yesterday. My MT target 106.6x hit while I was scalping to the long side. I guess the final appropriate reading is a flash crash on global concerns in very thin market hours ? hmm. In anycase, sideline here. That weekly candle is huge. We are propably going to trade inside it for a while.

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#79,702
Jan 3, 2019 1:22pm Jan 3, 2019 1:22pm

MXT
Joined Dec 2005 | Status: Trader | 2,857 Posts

Quoting okshop

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just woke up fr zzZZzz to see this crazy daily open spike or izzit my chart got virus attack {image}

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another flash crash bud

#79,703
Edited 2:23pm Jan 3, 2019 1:58pm | Edited 2:23pm

hellsbells
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 970 Posts

Quoting Replicant

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{quote} I would try to map the flows on Weekly as in the chart below. I think the MT dynamic on UJ is the following : 1) reversal down on Q1 2018 via DT starting trade wars (=> bad expectations for global growth in the MT/LT because of trade wars - just economics 101) 2) deep retrace/dead cat bounce from Q2 2018 to Q3 2018 3) new reversal down in the making now on facts (expectations becoming slowly facts) : that one should trigger the impulsive part of the MT move (with a final target deep below 100?). I think now only DT finding a deal with China...

Ignored

Thanks for your chart, I will review it better once I'm more awake. I placed 1 trade on UJ yesterday, 1 sell and watching the PA was disturbing. Because the chart is all askew with the drop my .5lot moved from +$50 to -$100 in a small 5min candle. I was very uncomfortable with the situation and took a hit for $40 as the voice in my head kept saying " this is not right you are at risk" over and over. The PA movement was weird and sluggish with low volume and indecision. Interesting experience but 1 I'm not keen to try again immediately. I think I'll stick to EU for the moment. If UJ manages any reasonable form of retracement I'll short again

On the upside yesterday I scalped with a scalping mentality, and still made half my daily profit target, and felt good going back to minute charts and trading like a fox being hunted. I didn't even bother trying to hold trades for longer than 20min.

#79,704
Jan 3, 2019 2:55pm Jan 3, 2019 2:55pm

Firmin2509
| Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Trader | 74 Posts

Chart daily look like rebounce, than another test of 105 area in January.
A test of the 100area cannot be ruled out afterwards.

#79,705
Jan 3, 2019 7:21pm Jan 3, 2019 7:21pm

hellsbells
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 970 Posts

considering shorts, watching close. A break below 107.5 would be awesome. Have locked in profits on EU and looking here. Tasty bearish hour candle, Japan fires up in 40min ( so much for staying away from UJ lol)

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#79,706
Edited 8:15pm Jan 3, 2019 7:53pm | Edited 8:15pm

hellsbells
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 970 Posts

Ah no. Now looks like bullish hour candle!

#79,707
Jan 3, 2019 10:53pm Jan 3, 2019 10:53pm

MrAashir
| Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 179 Posts

how about sell here? looks like it has peaked to me but still higher chances of going up.

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#79,708
Jan 3, 2019 11:08pm Jan 3, 2019 11:08pm

hellsbells
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 970 Posts

Quoting MrAashir

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how about sell here? looks like it has peaked to me but still higher chances of going up. {image}

Ignored

I just tried twice, closed for a few dollars profit. It DOES NOT want to go down. US dollar has some stinky strength today. My NZUS shot up then I got stopped out, My EU went well, then i got stopped out.

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#79,709
Jan 3, 2019 11:13pm Jan 3, 2019 11:13pm

MrAashir
| Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 179 Posts

Quoting hellsbells

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{quote} I just tried twice, closed for a few dollars profit. It DOES NOT want to go down. US dollar has some stinky strength today. My NZUS shot up then I got stopped out, My EU went well, then i got stopped out.

Ignored

looks like nzd and aud had some vitamin from china. But like typical chinese product it might not last long.

#79,710
Edited 11:56pm Jan 3, 2019 11:43pm | Edited 11:56pm

hellsbells
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 970 Posts

I've got one in at BE. Normally I like to make 2 trades but no confidence with it today. If it closes the hour below 108.190 it would be below the 30min 100SMA and hour 50 SMA which would be nice

Nb I TP 108.220. 5min to the hour, everything stalled, and it was $75 I didn't want to give up

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#79,711
Jan 3, 2019 11:56pm Jan 3, 2019 11:56pm

MrAashir
| Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 179 Posts

Quoting hellsbells

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I've got one in at BE. Normally I like to make 2 trades but no confidence with it today. If it closes the hour below 108.190 it would be below the 30min 100SMA and hour 50 SMA which would be nice Nb I TP 108.220. 5min to the hour, everything stalled, and it was $75 I didn't want to give up {image}

Ignored

hopefully it will go down. It is extreme bearish.

#79,712
Jan 3, 2019 11:59pm Jan 3, 2019 11:59pm

hellsbells
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 970 Posts

Quoting MrAashir

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{quote} hopefully it will go down. It is extreme bearish.

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I'm not Sure. I so want to long EU again but E has just had another little faint. I think I'm probably done for the week, and I've finished down. I'll show you why.

Trading rule number whatever, don't rush and once a trade is placed ensure PA is going to plan. Well wed (?) my first trading day for the year I saw the hour reversal on EJ and placed a couple of longs. The family came home and I was busy, had my SL just below the candles near the mauve crosses. If I had been watching I wouldve closed the trades with the dojis as it failed to break up, but no, the next hour tanked and took out my SL, each trade cost me $250, 2 trades. Grr. Anyway at least I had a reasonable SL, still don't know why people don't use them.
Also this week I didn't manage to hold a single trade overnight, but given the short and volatile week I'll cut myself slack.

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#79,713
Jan 4, 2019 12:00am Jan 4, 2019 12:00am

newbegger
Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,577 Posts

Quoting newbegger

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This daily candle has not closed but I suspect with NFP coming. probably will be like this at COB Thursday. So... 1. Is this a reversal candle with the long tail? 2. Is the tail pointing the way? {image}

Ignored

Wow not what I was expecting, at all.

Retracing big time on the stop run. Looks like the movers are cashing in on the bounty they received and getting ready for showtime. I think the movers just tipped their hand. Taking profits now on all longs and getting ready to follow the money, shorty.

Ecclesiastes 1:9

#79,714
Jan 4, 2019 1:44am Jan 4, 2019 1:44am

MrAashir
| Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 179 Posts

Quoting hellsbells

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{quote} I'm not Sure. I so want to long EU again but E has just had another little faint. I think I'm probably done for the week, and I've finished down. I'll show you why. Trading rule number whatever, don't rush and once a trade is placed ensure PA is going to plan. Well wed (?) my first trading day for the year I saw the hour reversal on EJ and placed a couple of longs. The family came home and I was busy, had my SL just below the candles near the mauve crosses. If I had been watching I wouldve closed the trades with the dojis as it failed to...

Ignored

dont worry i lost around 1k this week pretty bad week up until now for me hope next week changes something. Usdcad got me pretty good thought it will range but went straight down. i have stopped bleeding but have to make comeback next week.

#79,715
Jan 4, 2019 2:09pm Jan 4, 2019 2:09pm