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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #10,321
  • Dec 11, 2018 2:23pm Dec 11, 2018 2:23pm
The Yellow Down Arrow I added in my uploaded pic of the trade was where SM came in to hunt, and where DM followed and where it took me into the long fight.
  • #10,322
  • Dec 11, 2018 3:17pm Dec 11, 2018 3:17pm
Quoting TimeTells
This can only be done by KNOWING that SM were directly targeting DM. Unless you know the entry point of DM (like on what we saw on Fractals charts) most of the time the rest of us will end up being DM, that is the name of the game it seems. Don’t be daunted by this, you can still get out at the other end intact. And maybe with a profit.
Please learn how to trade correctly, don't counter trend trade unless you are a scalper.

"where SM came in to hunt, and where DM followed and where it took me into the long fight".

Nice story but it doesn't hold water.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,323
  • Dec 11, 2018 8:34pm Dec 11, 2018 8:34pm
Quoting TimeTells
I usually take a screenshot of trades (winning and losing) to reflect & learn from them later on as to what I did right or (often) wrong. Last night’s torrid battle with SM lasted almost twelve hours, though most of it was watching & managing the trade. Like they used to say in the old days before the Wrestling Shows – KIDS, DON’T TRY THIS AT HOME. What I’m happy to show of my private trading life is not highly advanced stuff (elite traders will not even be interested) and it does take knowledge of how to work within the mystery’s of this FX game....
almost sound good. almost.
the first 6 of the total 8 trades has nothing to do with SM, only with dumb trader.
if expect a stop run, why not wait for that to happen, but enter in a benign boring sideways period?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #10,324
  • Edited 9:40pm Dec 11, 2018 9:11pm | Edited 9:40pm
Hi Profitfarmer,

Dumb Trader. Wonderful lol. Thx for the vote of confidence.

Focus on the process.

The first 4 of the trades had nothing to do with SM of course. I don't expect a stop run and don't ever know when it begins (till it has begun).

If you know - please let me know lol.

The first 4 trades were perfect for the 25 pip down move that SM were always going to do in my opinion (and which they subsequently did of course).

And if SM went ddown first I would have closed the trades with a smaller profit than I ultimately achieved. Better for me.

Dumb of SM maybe. Or maybe we're all dumb and the games a bit tricky.

But then SM expect closure of trades when they squeeze you out, that's how it works for them. Didn't happen.

But why you might ask? and a fair question.
  • #10,325
  • Dec 11, 2018 10:12pm Dec 11, 2018 10:12pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi Profitfarmer, Dumb Trader. Wonderful lol. Thx for the vote of confidence. Focus on the process. The first 4 of the trades had nothing to do with SM of course. I don't expect a stop run and don't ever know when it begins (till it has begun). If you know - please let me know lol. The first 4 trades were perfect for the 25 pip down move that SM were always going to do in my opinion (and which they subsequently did of course). And if SM went ddown first I would have closed the trades with a smaller profit than I ultimately achieved. Better for me....
go to your chart.
see where you opened the trades in the 'middle of nowhere' sideways.
where on the same charts do you think the SLs are likely to be (of other traders)?

but forget SL run, and still would, most likely, want to place a trade -for breakout or reversal- when there is a move.
is there a 'catalyst' to place a trade in a sideways range?
if yes, please tell!
i dont mind to learn. ( is that enough for vote of confidence?)

why ask?
bcos 129 was a breath away, and above that, being a round number, likely more of the stops, and further move against your trade, without SL. where would be the point of 'no return' to be squeezed out?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #10,326
  • Dec 11, 2018 10:28pm Dec 11, 2018 10:28pm
Hi Profitfarmer, yes I see your point.

Something happens during those sideways movements. Everyone is waiting for a break.

But I don't trade to SL or from SL. In Asia you might be waiting all day lol.

The chart I printed was my clean broker chart. They see nothing else. My assessment charts are on another platform.

The price was going down as I saw it from my views, I was happy to take the trade.

They had cleared out some mini buys earlier in a sweep up that closed out as the pin bar formed on the hour 10 am mmy time. .

It was a 50/50 to go down 25 pips. I was happy with the entry's but I see your point as to why you would have waited.

But it was what happened after that when the SM run started. So from sideways movement to a burst up for no reason (go down to 5mins and have look at simple vol - I don't use those though lol) buto the Stop Run started on low vol but a big move. Usually SM.

At that point I close out 4 trades for a loss or see how determined they are. They were very determined and I had to manage the trade well.

If you read my earlier post I was quite to happy to concede it was not a good trade.

Just an example of how SM try to take out retail. There was certainly minimal retail traders waiting to jump om sells don't you think.

Thx for the input I will take it on board. I'm a discretionary trader not a TA analyst. But yes NO event was there to really trigger my trade.

But whether it worked out or not, I presented the chart to show the SM hunters.

That's what this thread was to show in its original intention. How SM do it. I have more.
  • #10,327
  • Dec 11, 2018 10:39pm Dec 11, 2018 10:39pm
IF YOU WONDERED ABOUT THE INTRADAY SM PROCESS. WELL, THIS IS THEIR MONA LISA.


They cleaned out all the retail shorts THEN cleaned out all the retail longs.

Larger Swing and Position institutions/traders are still intact lol, price is still running between their lines.

But Retail were carved up like a Sunday roast.

And price went where ultimately? Dickie Betts (Allman Bros) – “Back to where it all begins”


Those that see this PROCESS (that Fractal let US ALL SEE) will maybe understand my posts.

I’m not a teacher, and I learn best doing it & viewing it.

I can’t enter when SM starts to hunt because I DON’T KNOW when that will be. I don’t have Fractals data (whatever it is) or his charts or the INDI’s that everyone got so attached to lol.

I enter a trade after splitting up my position into smaller segments. Usually then end up quickly as DM lol.

But I actually enjoy the trade management challenge from there. By just putting in one or two trade segments of my full position and the trade takes off for a quick early profit, is a bit too easy lol (just joking).

But I can now smell it AFTER the SM hunt has moved up quite a bit. If your position is flat then get in and follow the run. If you’re in opposite trades already then you have to close them out or manage them.


Good luck if you can pick those areas and takeoffs and landing spots neatly. I just can’t, sorry.

Last night I went to bed around midnight (too tired lol).

I had set in play a trade management EA (I freely downloaded somewhere) and let it do the final stages of the Stop Hunt finish from up near the BIG round number down to my original profit target area.
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  • #10,328
  • Dec 12, 2018 1:08am Dec 12, 2018 1:08am
Quoting TimeTells
IF YOU WONDERED ABOUT THE INTRADAY SM PROCESS. WELL, THIS IS THEIR MONA LISA. They cleaned out all the retail shorts THEN cleaned out all the retail longs. Larger Swing and Position institutions/traders are still intact lol, price is still running between their lines. But Retail were carved up like a Sunday roast. And price went where ultimately? Dickie Betts (Allman Bros) – “Back to where it all begins” Those that see this PROCESS (that Fractal let US ALL SEE) will maybe understand my posts. I’m not a teacher, and I learn best doing it & viewing...
Congratulations Timetells
Thank you for sharing your trade analysis and charts those were very good trades do you use any type of volume analysis to get into those short trades or perhaps certain candlestick signals? I wondered more about what your trigger for entry would be after the SM stop run? good job
  • #10,329
  • Dec 12, 2018 1:29am Dec 12, 2018 1:29am
Hi Jenny, cheers ty

Well, the answer essentially is No.

But with a BUT though lol.

I don’t use any Volume Analysis to either enter a trade or close a trade.

But I do use Bill Williams MFI (in your MT4) at times on a 15m chart to get a feel for (other than the candle structure) whether there is a stalling of trader interest at the moment. A thin volume liquidity combined with a big move candle sometimes tips off an SM action. All these volumes are broker based and not the full spectrum of volume across FX. It is a decentralised market. Though I've switched views between 3 different broker’ and they are fairly similar.

So nothing is conclusive in FX lol.

Any indicator will give you a feel of the current bias of a pair (but not the sentiment or direction of price as such).

If every trader used an indicator and took a similar interpretation and then traded LONG for example you would assume that the price would go up, as trader’s scrambled to get aboard.

Often at these points the trade goes SHORT.

Should we suspect SM involvement in those instances chasing retail out before resuming the intended direction – I usually do.
  • #10,330
  • Dec 12, 2018 3:53am Dec 12, 2018 3:53am
Quoting Bushy
{quote} No one will ever be able to quote this stuff as facts, all we can do is draw our own conclusions. Current estimates are that FX turnover is over $5 trillion daily, so what would it take to manipulate that? mmmmm...….????? DM will trade instinctively and intuitively, they will keep making the same mistakes over and over again, how much manipulation does it take to profit from that? It's about one group of traders having a good idea what the other group is doing. Oanda is one of the biggest FX brokers, it publishes it's order book, i.e. Stops...
If the market turns over 5 trillion daily, wouldn't it be feasible for the SM to hold several huge accounts with reserves capable of moving the market? If the market is that huge, it would need huge orders, and huge accounts surely. I will try out the order book stops and orders, can I ask you please do you recommend using the MT4 indicator or the website version? I heard that the data refreshes every 20 minutes? How do you use it in a way that it helps you to trade? Do you trade the opposite of what the retail are doing?
  • #10,331
  • Dec 12, 2018 4:15am Dec 12, 2018 4:15am
EU
Attached Image
  • #10,332
  • Dec 12, 2018 5:06am Dec 12, 2018 5:06am
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} If the market turns over 5 trillion daily, wouldn't it be feasible for the SM to hold several huge accounts with reserves capable of moving the market? If the market is that huge, it would need huge orders, and huge accounts surely. I will try out the order book stops and orders, can I ask you please do you recommend using the MT4 indicator or the website version? I heard that the data refreshes every 20 minutes? How do you use it in a way that it helps you to trade? Do you trade the opposite of what the retail are doing?
How do you define huge? £100k, £1m, £10m, £100m, £1bn, £10bn...…….

Use Oanda to help you identify levels first, then move on and see what else you can learn and use from it.

Remember 'How to eat elephants?' is more relevant to FX than anything.
  • #10,333
  • Dec 12, 2018 5:10am Dec 12, 2018 5:10am
Quoting TimeTells
So nothing is conclusive in FX lol.
You're either contradicting yourself, or are actually learning.....

Time will tell which....
  • #10,334
  • Dec 12, 2018 5:31am Dec 12, 2018 5:31am
This is part of my approach, the lines are daily and weekly pivots, and soon as I post, there will be posters who will knock pivots, I don't care, I have my own way of using them, the levels are hit, just as an MA or a Fib level will be hit, knock it if you like, it doesn't matter to me.

So if you look at the chart, look at the Daily candles, looks like the EURUSD is in a range, yet to hit the bottom of the range, and it just looks like it's going to continue short, no need to think hard about it, it looks like it's going down so we'd be looking to take a short trade.

4hr, we have a hammer, indicating a short again, I use candlestick reading a lot, very effective when used properly, lethal when not understood properly.

1hr, we've had a range, we have the fake resistance, so we'd be expecting a break up and reverse yes? That's what fake SR does right? You need to understand this and not mistake it for a breakout.

Then market timing, we've had the stop run after London open, so going into NY open what do you think will happen? Is that a DM money long setup?

We have news, US CPI, minor impact, need to be aware, there is a method I use to trade around these, most of the 'red' news on FF aren't high impact, there is only 3 or 4 proper high impact USD news every month.

That is a trading plan/strategy, I'm not saying what's going to happen today, it's basically about trading short from the top of accumulation after a stop hunt, and long from the bottom of accumulation, that way you can often take half your trade off at the other end of accumulation to pay for the trade, so in the long run you win.
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  • #10,335
  • Dec 12, 2018 6:01am Dec 12, 2018 6:01am
Hi Bushy,

it's basically about trading short from the top of accumulation after a stop hunt

Welcome back to the fold mate. Everyone's still learning and yes I like this style. Sentiment & psychology would always have its place but its a bit thin just to trade off for the way I assess them without a skill base in that arena.

But I won't knock a pivot ever. Again with an indi it probably should not be used just to enter a trade from (they overshoot-undershoot etc and burst past major lines) but I have found them a terrific structural overview of where a pair is sitting.

If I might suggest humbly throwing in a monthly piv as well, have a look and see what you think. On EURUSD it currently sits about 3350 on mine about 10 pips away. You've got the day players, the weekly swingers and the monthly positioners. Depends on who holds the power at any point, and if they are fighting each other or are travelling together in a pack.

I hate an aftertimer but I hope you trust that I am to my word, no reason not to be. I took 3 small EURUSD longs off in profit about 3 hours ago because it is just ranging and I couldn't get any other entries in my head after the handy downward stop hunt reversal following the news of May's problems.

Price sits right on first weekly support but up to the monthly centre point is not many pips. The pair has to break at some point, but will traders be taken for a ride by SM first before the real direction is seen. After NY open they always like to create a new hi or lo for the day and take out some stops but will it be up or down I don't know.

I'm out and flat tonight and won't wait the hour till NY. I can't find a 25 pip hope myself on any of my 4 pairs at the moment which are all coiled and ready and maybe tomorrow they will have moved into tradeable positions (as I see it).
  • #10,336
  • Dec 12, 2018 10:21am Dec 12, 2018 10:21am
Quoting Bushy
it's basically about trading short from the top of accumulation after a stop hunt, and long from the bottom of accumulation.
Very nice plan Bushy it was a good read through thank you for sharing your trade analysis, one question please, when you mentioned trading short from the top of the accumulation after a stop hunt, you mean trading short after the accumulation of the stop losses of the dm shorts have been completed?
  • #10,337
  • Dec 12, 2018 11:52am Dec 12, 2018 11:52am
Update: EU

one Shorts level cleaned, one new Longs level
Attached Image
  • #10,338
  • Dec 12, 2018 12:16pm Dec 12, 2018 12:16pm
Quoting JennyMK
{quote} Very nice plan Bushy it was a good read through thank you for sharing your trade analysis, one question please, when you mentioned trading short from the top of the accumulation after a stop hunt, you mean trading short after the accumulation of the stop losses of the dm shorts have been completed?
Yes, trade after what you think has been a stop hunt, rather than be the stop hunt, look for what you recognize, I trade 10+ pairs, 6 trades a week max, or thereabouts.

This is why I don't post something really constructive that often, I spend 5 minutes or so on average having a good look at my charts, by the time I've gone through all of them, an hour has gone, it's time to go through them again, sometimes a lot can change in an hour, but I usually do this until I have found trade, Don't trade between at least 10:30am and 11:30amGMT, even better always wait until NY open, you'll probably find you make more profit, depends on what your looking for anyway.

So how did the Euro unfold...

Is that a setup? it might well be, I won't commit, but it has got my interest, I will investigate after this post, and I have other stuff on my chart that I consider.

So basically that's a half decent barebones system, multi Timeframe, personally I have to have the Daily and 4hr n my chart, otherwise I forget about the MTF, it makes a big difference to my trading, having it all on one chart, and also with 10 pairs to look at, 30 charts so no......
You have levels, you can draw your own, if you're very adept at it then great, I'm not, I'd rather have a level automatically placed for me and if it comes into play then great if not, it probably will be on another pair.
I study the candlesticks a lot, if you like that read Steve Nissons books, freely illegally downloadable - (stating a fact , if you're not really into candlestick reading, probably worth understanding, but whatever you do, DO NOT half understand them a Pin is not always a rejection, it depends what it is on where it is.

Right, just had a look at the EU before I clicked Post reply, it's pierced the Pivot level, usually the market dies this time of day and it looks like it's ended it's move, so will likely consolidate, don't know.
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  • #10,339
  • Dec 12, 2018 12:20pm Dec 12, 2018 12:20pm
EU: another level cleaned, always amazing to see the tag and immediate retrace
Attached Image
  • #10,340
  • Dec 12, 2018 12:39pm Dec 12, 2018 12:39pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi Bushy, it's basically about trading short from the top of accumulation after a stop hunt Welcome back to the fold mate. Everyone's still learning and yes I like this style. Sentiment & psychology would always have its place but its a bit thin just to trade off for the way I assess them without a skill base in that arena. But I won't knock a pivot ever. Again with an indi it probably should not be used just to enter a trade from (they overshoot-undershoot etc and burst past major lines) but I have found them a terrific structural overview of where...

FF, please don´t forget your plans for this week:

"This week I will be busy....

but next week I will start posting these "derivative pair" trades.......as asked for...


that would be a nice way to conclude this thread.......


because that DEMONSTRATES in front of your eyes in which OTHER WAYS the MK can be traded...

STAY tuned.

FF
Making the DM smarter!"
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