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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #241
  • Dec 3, 2018 9:42am Dec 3, 2018 9:42am
Quoting cat
Big 500 pip gap up overnight off of the positive US/China trade news yesterday, and now the Dow is at a very interesting level. The H2 diversion I posted above has broken down, so forget that, but, these are now critical levels. From here, current price 26,061, up to around 26,200, will, according to me, be the level we turn south again, if, we are going to turn south, as I think once we break above the November high, then the next level to challenge is the all time Oct high, Should be an interesting week.
Forgot to mention earlier, but I would've considered shorts around this 26k mark... could pull back decent from here.
  • #242
  • Dec 3, 2018 9:57am Dec 3, 2018 9:57am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Forgot to mention earlier, but I would've considered shorts around this 26k mark... could pull back decent from here.
Yep, this is a very critical level. 285 pips down so far today...will it continue?
  • #243
  • Dec 3, 2018 9:59am Dec 3, 2018 9:59am
Quoting cat
{quote} Yep, this is a very critical level. 285 pips down so far today...will it continue?
Yeah over next few days, for sure... If you can hold intra-week why not?!

Can see 4H 20sma on cards at least so back to 25,500ish as a min...
  • #244
  • Dec 4, 2018 3:05pm Dec 4, 2018 3:05pm
Quoting cat
Big 500 pip gap up overnight off of the positive US/China trade news yesterday, and now the Dow is at a very interesting level. The H2 diversion I posted above has broken down, so forget that, but, these are now critical levels. From here, current price 26,061, up to around 26,200, will, according to me, be the level we turn south again, if, we are going to turn south, as I think once we break above the November high, then the next level to challenge is the all time Oct high, Should be an interesting week.
Bingo!

TA rules, OK!
  • #245
  • Dec 6, 2018 11:39am Dec 6, 2018 11:39am
So here we are all the way back down on the 2 day 200ema, a 1,815 point fall from where we began the week on the Dow. Are we going to ramp all the way back up, or is this baby going lower. I for one have no idea.
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  • #246
  • Dec 16, 2018 5:29am Dec 16, 2018 5:29am
I think the chances of a ' Black Monday ' type sell off tomorrow are high. The technicals are very bearish indeed on the Dow. The weekly 100sma is at 23,500, and that could be strong support if the price reaches it, but below that, we really are into freefall territory.

Whatever happens next week though, these markets look doomed technically.
  • #247
  • Dec 17, 2018 7:42am Dec 17, 2018 7:42am
Dow just off the Dec low now. If it breaks, this could fall 1000 pips + easily. Black Monday could be on.
  • #248
  • Dec 17, 2018 8:45am Dec 17, 2018 8:45am
December low broken. This could now become a rout. My next potential support level on the Dow is the 3 day 200ema at 23,500.
  • #249
  • Dec 19, 2018 4:52pm Dec 19, 2018 4:52pm
The Fed raises rates 0.25 basis points, and the Dow crashes 900 pips. Way to go Fed!!

23,500 broken, and we ain't seen nothing yet!
  • #250
  • Dec 20, 2018 3:40am Dec 20, 2018 3:40am
I think this leg down could extend to the 21700 area before any significant retrace. In EW terms I believe it's in wave 3 of 3 which is characteristically the longest and strongest.
  • #251
  • Dec 20, 2018 9:47am Dec 20, 2018 9:47am
If a clear break of 23k on Daily TF, then geronimo and the cadillac with it

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  • #252
  • Dec 23, 2018 6:17am Dec 23, 2018 6:17am
Well, the next obvious potential support on my charts for the Dow is the weekly 200ema currently at 21,370. Putting the fib on from the last dip in the price on the weekly chart that is valid given where the price is now, and we have the 50% @ 22,240, and the 61.8% @ 21,110.

Can it/will it just keep on falling? Of course , no one can say with any certainty as that doesn't exist in trading, but to evaluate things ppurely from as technical perspective, this big last down leg should rally again before we get what will go down in history as the mother of all market crashes, and when it does, no doubt there will be many who will think that the ' correction ' is over, and stock markets are set for new highs in 2019. I am not one of them. We'll see how much further this falls, and then if it does begin to rally, levels at which I will do my best to call, then we'll have a stab at where it may be likely to turn south again, but anyway, somewhere beneath 25,000 I would say.

All depends on the Fed interest rate policy. If they keep raising rates into the storm, as they have just done in the December rate hike, then these markets will most likely just keep on falling, but if they hold off, and even reverse policy and cut rates, then that could lift markets, but not necessarily, for that would be official recognition that the whole economy is up shit street, and stocks could fall even harder.

Personally, I don't see any way back for these markets unless the Fed kicks the can down the road and introduces another round of QE, in the process, prolonging what is inevitably building, which is the worst stock market crash and global recession any of us have ever seen. We as traders can take full advantage of it provided we understand what we are looking at.
  • #253
  • Dec 23, 2018 6:20am Dec 23, 2018 6:20am
Quoting PariCovek
If a clear break of 23k on Daily TF, then geronimo and the cadillac with it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5C8AC6V2KQ
God how much I hated those two!
  • #254
  • Dec 24, 2018 2:11am Dec 24, 2018 2:11am
Okay, so Dow is rallying slightly as I write from just above its 50% fib mentioned above. There is a good chance it will lift a bit from this position, as the price is now quite far below its H1 200ema since it fell away from it on the 13th Dec, so from this extended level, one would normally expect something of a retrace back up towards it, so we'll have to wait and see. Just remember though that rallies are being sold down again hard at the moment

Wishing all who drop in on my threads from time to time a very Merry Christmas.
  • #255
  • Dec 24, 2018 4:23am Dec 24, 2018 4:23am
Quoting cat
Okay, so Dow is rallying slightly as I write from just above its 50% fib mentioned above. There is a good chance it will lift a bit from this position, as the price is now quite far below its H1 200ema since it fell away from it on the 13th Dec, so from this extended level, one would normally expect something of a retrace back up towards it, so we'll have to wait and see. Just remember though that rallies are being sold down again hard at the moment Wishing all who drop in on my threads from time to time a very Merry Christmas.
The chances it will either go higher or lower is equally good, since during thin volumes trading becomes unpredictable and doesn't reflect fundamental changes in market positions. Random walk intensifies I would say.
  • #256
  • Edited 6:17am Dec 26, 2018 5:36am | Edited 6:17am
The Dow made contact with its weekly 200ema on Monday, and this level is definitely very big potential support, and I would say that if the markets are going to rally, then it is from around this level that they will do so. Asian stock markets have been pushing lower over Christmas however, so we'll have to wait and see. Donald Trump said yesterday that this is now a great buying opportunity, and one cannot rule that out given the levels we are at, though for me if the Dow does rally off of its weekly 200ema, this will be a pullback before the price pushes lower, not the next leg of the 2017 bull run.

What's certain is that the Trump administration will try to do everything it can to save these markets from collapsing, so I think interest rate cuts and more QE from the Fed could be in store for 2019, though whether even that will stop the rot remains to be seen.
  • #257
  • Dec 29, 2018 4:30am Dec 29, 2018 4:30am
Friday's Dow candle finished as almost a gravestone Doji ( a candle in which the open, low, and close are at the low, or in this case, near the low of the day ). It is the ultimate bearish candle.

But that's not just it, because on the weekly time frame, the price rose off of what was always likely to be very major support, which was the 200 exponential moving average, back up to, but not quite, its 100sma which it previously smashed through. From my own observations, the price on any market you can think of, will often rally off of its big 200 moving averages, back up to its 100 simple moving average, before falling again.

This is a pattern that repeats itself with strong regularity. I'm not saying it will definitely do so again here, but I am watching for it.
  • #258
  • Dec 31, 2018 5:23am Dec 31, 2018 5:23am
My thoughts are that equities have definitely peaked and there are only downside risks at the moment.

 

  1. FED is in a rate tightening cycle - negative equities
  2. Yield Curve is coming closer and closer to inverting - Signals a recession
  3. DT is enforcing negative economic polices through protectionism. Never have these worked out positively for a countries economy


On the COT you can see that equities have been going up but the large specs holdings have decreased sharply. This is the transfer of ownership process from the smart money to the dumb money. This is why in the press you will be seeing lots of advice to buy the stock market etc . This whole process takes time though. Once they have dumped their holdings there is no one left to buy and we should be seeing a 25% price correction.

  • #259
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:05am Jan 4, 2019 9:05am
Strong NFP and Dow is continuing its rally today. Anyone looking for resistance on this move may want to look from around 23,220-250 or so, which is the 76.4% taken from the January 2nd high. If it breaks above that, then today's R2 pivot is at 270, and then the H2 200sma is pretty much right on top of 400, so these for me are the levels to watch for today.
  • #260
  • Edited 5:48am Jan 5, 2019 4:25am | Edited 5:48am
A near 1000 pip move to the upside on the Dow yesterday, and I'm going to keep this on the technical side and not get into the NFP numbers or what Trump and Fed chairman Powell might be saying, which is all really nothing more than hot air.

SO WHAT! is my first sentiment on yesterday's move, and anyone now thinking this is the start of a new bull rally that is going to take stocks higher is in for a big disappointment in my humble opinion. This is a technical pullback after the big falls we saw in December, there was always going to be one from those sort of oversold levels, as traders we know nothing goes straight up or down in a bull or bear market, and US stocks now being in a bear market, are rallying up to resistance before the next leg down.

We may now be right up on that resistance on the Dow. If your weekly 100sma is where mine is, then you'll see the price got close to it last night, reaching 23,540 and my 100sma is around 23,590. The price rising off the 200ema back up to its 100sma before falling again is a pattern which repeats itself with great frequency in any market on any time frame, so Monday should be very interesting. If the Dow does break through this level, then I think the next level to watch is the one which acted as support in October and November before it was broken in December, and that's the 2 day 200ema which I have at 24,280 currently.

I'll post a chart if anyone wants one, otherwise I'll leave it there.
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