Cable Update (GBPUSD)

$ is bullish by the way

eu prime sell set up

if it goes to 722 you can whistle goodbye to that number

daily failed outright not the first

weeklies bearish

The forecasts are out and the headlines are in. Brexit will be an economic catastrophe – worse than the recession we didn’t have after the referendum.

It’s encouraging to see the newspapers talking about the economic cost of government policy.

If only they’d done so on the question of joining the EU in the first place…

Or the Iraq war, Afghanistan, the ERM, selling Britain’s gold, corporate taxes, the minimum wage, tariffs and subsidies, licensing laws, and the Labour Party.

I can understand that financial and economic forecasts are usually dry. But who knew economics could be so much fun, all of a sudden?

“No-Deal Brexit Could Wipe 10.7% Off U.K. Economy Over 15 Years” writes Bloomberg.

“Theresa May’s Brexit plan would result in 4% hit to GDP, says report,” writes the Financial Times.

The Guardian was the funniest:

The deal negotiated by May will probably end up somewhere between the two Chequers-based scenarios outlined, meaning the UK would be between 0.6% and 2.1% worse off in nominal GDP terms in 2035-36 than if it remained in the EU.

Always keen to do a little better we come up with this:

Brexit to wipe off 99.332% of UK GDP… over the next 824 years and 4 months.

It sounds stupid and implausible. But it’s not, at least not by the media’s mathematical standards.

The fraud is in the details. It’s a favourite factoid technique of the journos and their accomplices, the economists.

By calculating how much lower GDP growth will be each year under Brexit, the headline writers can write something that looks far more horrific than it really is.

A 10% wipe off of GDP over 15 years is really just a tiny amount of lower economic growth each year. It doesn’t even have to include a recession, necessarily…

Never forget, central bankers are better at causing recessions than predicting them.

Ironically, a recession or two is likely to happen during those 15 years anyway, no matter what. But the economists don’t take that particular eventuality, or reality, into account in their models… There are lots of straight lines in the GDP forecasts making the news today.

The point being, if you look far enough into the future, according to economists, Brexit would crush 99% of UK GDP. That doesn’t mean the economy won’t exist, as the journalists would like you to believe after reading their headlines. It means our economy will be much much smaller than it otherwise would have been. It will grow less, not shrink.

The way the media communicates these figures allows for some wonderful PR management. Economists only have to assume Brexit will be very moderately bad and they still get impressive results – huge chunks of GDP gone missing over very long periods of time.

A small adjustment to the rate of growth delivers all sorts of results over long enough periods of time. Our economy might grow a thousand per cent in coming decades, but as long as it grows slightly less under Brexit, that’s all that matters in the headline.

they don't know no one believes the scare stories by the gov or crazy carney
they built those models to suit their opinion

Take Out 1.2750 stops ?

bulls are gasping for breath
maybe the next one will work out

I overslept

Maybe

I have multiplied my account by 8 since 15 nov. doing little bits and pieces. AI does not want to hand me my 1.2722 gift. He has no alternative sooner or later. Not in a hurry. I can wait

Lack of new Brexit headlines keeps the Pound trading within the range under 1.2800 level, the pair continues under pressure and downside potential increase when the pair break below support level around 1.2720 handles.

support is 1.2662

maybe if it loses this structure to the downside, that will be that

The big question is that weekly doji the bottom ???? Any break below would I think be in the 2300 area so if if it goes then one would have to plan in that number . As posted .the month 10/20ema crossed .thats down but we know emas are after the move !!!! So we have to look at the bigger supply zone for direction. That's where the possible long will fail if if it does at all ? Big question to think about .?

mORNING.......all brothers . Let's make first +

going to bed see you in the morning

Today is Friday where anything can happen. But for all there is, the trend in GU is bearish.

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