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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #501
  • Nov 15, 2018 10:13am Nov 15, 2018 10:13am
Hello KeenPips,

Thought of sharing this in your thread.

XAUEUR

On weekly, the pair has big round bottom and seems will test the downward TL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURWeekly.png Size: 23 KB


On daily, we have a flag pattern on a weekly/Daily support

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURDaily.png Size: 18 KB


On H4, here comes the play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUEURH4.png Size: 23 KB


Now if you consider the breakout of the first upper boundary of channel then there is a retest and the pair is ready to be bought.

Another option is to wait for the break of the second boundary line and a clear bullish candle above the S/R zone which will coincide with the break of a neckline of a small inverse H&S.

It is really subjective on this TF.

Regards,
  • #502
  • Nov 15, 2018 10:35am Nov 15, 2018 10:35am
Appreciated. Well done!

KP

Quoting mtharwat
Hello KeenPips, Thought of sharing this in your thread. XAUEUR On weekly, the pair has big round bottom and seems will test the downward TL {image} On daily, we have a flag pattern on a weekly/Daily support {image} On H4, here comes the play. {image} Now if you consider the breakout of the first upper boundary of channel then there is a retest and the pair is ready to be bought. Another option is to wait for the break of the second boundary line and a clear bullish candle above the S/R zone which will coincide with the break of a neckline of a small...
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  • #503
  • Nov 18, 2018 2:24pm Nov 18, 2018 2:24pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish bias that kicked in on the EURNZD market in October 2018 continues to have a follow-through this month. On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick last week. Given the candlestick pattern on the monthly time frame, we may expect bears to attempt an exposure of the horizontal support around the 1.62370 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_W1_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


On the daily time frame, price action broke down an ascending trendline (black) from the low of February 2017. It is now respecting a descending trendline (red) from recent highs. As price action has moved far from the descending trendline and the mean value area, we are likely to see a northward pullback before any further bearish momentum. A likely area for such a pullback is the horizontal resistance around 1.68770.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_D1_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #504
  • Nov 18, 2018 2:38pm Nov 18, 2018 2:38pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The Kiwi is looking very strong and the NZDUSD appears to have more room to head further northward. We may see bulls attempt the 0.70430/0.72000 resistance area in the weeks ahead.

On the weekly time frame, price action continues to bear northwards after bulls seized control in October 2018. Technically, there is little barrier to the bulls’ northward drive until the 0.70430 area provided they are able to navigate the current location, the 0.68650 area, which is a horizontal S/R zone.

On the daily time frame, price action breached a descending trendline (red) on November 1, 2018 and is now respecting an ascending trendlne (black) from recent lows. As long as the trendline holds, we may see bulls continue their control of the market. However, as price action is presently located at a horizontal S/R area, we may see some sideways or a brief retracement to a value area before a bullish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_D1_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 52 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an inner ascending trendline (magenta), a sign of an increase in bullish momentum. A pullback to retest the trendline and perhaps a bounce off it, or a retracement to the 0.68200 area, the immediate horizontal support zone, is likely to kick in a bullish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H4_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #505
  • Nov 18, 2018 2:48pm Nov 18, 2018 2:48pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the GBPUSD market continues to operate in a descending channel (black) on the weekly time frame. The market ambivalence has resulted in recent price action trading in a consolidating, descending triangle (red). And we may see further sideways operation in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 43 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is rejecting the support line of the triangle (red) seen on the weekly time frame. The 1.30330 area is the immediate horizontal resistance. Should bulls control price action to successfully handle that area, we may see them target the triangle resistance or the horizontal resistance around 1.32580.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_Nov._18,_2018_001.png Size: 52 KB


The H4 time frame shows the market in consolidation and bulls may retest the recent high around the 1.30720 area. That area witnessed a strong drop on Wednesday last week. However, the area around the monthly pivot, 1.29000/1.29450, is likely to act as the immediate barrier for bulls to contend with. At any rate, I am not buying GBPUSD under the current market condition. I will step aside and look for a sell trading opportunity at an area of value after a temporary northward retracement or rally.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #506
  • Nov 18, 2018 2:54pm Nov 18, 2018 2:54pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market continues to amaze, no thanks to Brexit and the various issues affecting prominent countries in Europe. Operating in a long-term descending channel (black), price action on the monthly time frame continues to be ambivalent. The bearish tone of October 2018 is being check mated. Price action is now located at a horizontal support and near an ascending trendline (red) from the low of December 2016. We may see a further northward move this week, and the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.16000 area is suspect. A southward break of the ascending trendline (red) is lkely to give impetus to a bearish momentum. Of course, a retest of an alternative ascending trendline (yellowgreen) and its rejection is also likely to lead to a similar outcome.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_MN_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 57 KB


On the weekly time frame, price action is struggling near a congestion zone. The market mode is still ambivalent. The bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago has been countered by the print of a bullish candlestick last week. And we may see bulls making a retest of the broken down (former) horizontal support around 1.15900/1.16150. However, we may expect price action to struggle around the congestion area of 1.15000.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 55 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (gold) from recent highs. Recent price action is under the control of bulls and we may see a northward move to retest the trendline. In fact, we may see a northward break of the trendline before a southward turnaround.

I will not be taking a northward trade; I will be looking for a high-probability and good reward:risk bearish setup in this market. I will be watching how price action reacts at the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.16580/1.17940 (bound by magenta horizontal lines). A bearish setup in the area will pique my interest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1_Nov._18,_2018.png Size: 57 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #507
  • Nov 18, 2018 4:56pm Nov 18, 2018 4:56pm
Quoting KeenPips
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook... KP
Gapped down at the open of the market this week.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #508
  • Nov 18, 2018 5:00pm Nov 18, 2018 5:00pm
Good info, the technical sentiment is still intact.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting warrensapp
{quote} Gapped down at the open of the market this week.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #509
  • Nov 18, 2018 8:32pm Nov 18, 2018 8:32pm
Quoting KeenPips
Good info, the technical sentiment is still intact. Trade safe. KP {quote}
Hello KeenpPips,
NZDUSD gapped down at the open of the market.
Does it mean there will be a small correction to the south ? If so, what is your expectation?
Please reply.
Thanks
  • #510
  • Nov 19, 2018 5:07am Nov 19, 2018 5:07am
I am bullish on the NZDUSD. This means that I will be looking for a very good buy trading setup at an area of value..

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting mavilakandy
{quote} Hello KeenpPips, NZDUSD gapped down at the open of the market. Does it mean there will be a small correction to the south ? If so, what is your expectation? Please reply. Thanks
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #511
  • Nov 20, 2018 1:34pm Nov 20, 2018 1:34pm
A break below the support handle around 0.66900 on a daily closing basis will change my bias to bearish.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
I am bullish on the NZDUSD. This means that I will be looking for a very good buy trading setup at an area of value.. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #512
  • Nov 20, 2018 9:13pm Nov 20, 2018 9:13pm
Quoting KeenPips
A break below the support handle around 0.66900 on a daily closing basis will change my bias to bearish. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
KeenPips, thanks for your reply.
Regards,
  • #513
  • Nov 20, 2018 10:05pm Nov 20, 2018 10:05pm
Trade safe mate.

KP

Quoting mavilakandy
{quote} KeenPips, thanks for your reply. Regards,
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #514
  • Nov 25, 2018 2:21pm Nov 25, 2018 2:21pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURNZD market has experienced a downward price action for some weeks. Last week, bulls pushed price action northward but there was little momentum, so an insider bar was formed. Price action is located at an S/R reaction zone and we may still have a sideways of price action in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_W1_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has turned southward, respecting a descending trendline (red) from recent highs. Recent price action is within a horizontal support zone and operating sideways. It is important to wait for clarity of price action in this area before committing to a trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_D1_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending triangle (black), which seems to be a corrective phase of a predominantly downward trend. A breakdown of the triangle support is likely to result in a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_H4_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #515
  • Nov 25, 2018 2:33pm Nov 25, 2018 2:33pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, price action is operating around the channel support of an ascending channel (red) traceable to 2017. Two weeks ago, a bearish candlestick took price action southward to retest the channel support. But last week, bulls took price action further northward from the channel support; though being with limited traction resulted in the printing of an insider candlestick. Technically, bears are still favoured to be more influential in the market, particularly if they are able to breakdown the channel support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_W1_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (black) with recent price action in consolidation and located near the channel resistance. The 1.77700/1.79000 zone (bound by horizontal magenta lines) is operating as a broken down support and we may see a retracement to it before a further southward continuation. The zone is also the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_D1_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 60 KB


It is apparent from the H4 time frame that the 1.78600 area is a broken down minor support and it is in congruence with the 61.8 Fib retracement level. A mini ascending channel (blue) is seen on the H4 time frame and the consolidating mode in the channel may extend to a retest of the 1.77700/1.79000 area (bound by horizontal magenta lines) or the resistance of a major descending channel (black) seen on the daily time frame. Nevertheless, a breakdown of the mini ascending channel (blue) is likely to provide impetus for a southward momentum.

I am bearish GBPAUD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_H4_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 58 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #516
  • Nov 25, 2018 2:55pm Nov 25, 2018 2:55pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the GBPUSD has broken down an ascending channel (black) from 2016 and is now in consolidation within a descending wedge (red). We may have a temporary northward move to, perhaps, the wedge resistance before a southward turnaround. Overall, the simple wave pattern on the W1 time frame points to a likely southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 59 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a mini descending wedge (blue) but recent operation points to a consolidation mode. This may extend to a retest of the minor resistance around the 1.29270/1.29630 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #517
  • Nov 25, 2018 3:16pm Nov 25, 2018 3:16pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market continues to be sideways. On the weekly time frame, the bullish pinbar formed two weeks ago was countered by the printing of a bearish, pinbar-like candlestick last week. If bears seize control of price action they are likely to expose the low of the bullish pinbar printed two weeks ago, which is around the 1.12075 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


On the H4 time frame, last week Friday, price action broke down an ascending trendline (magenta). However, the southward momentum appears to be weak and we may see a retracement this week before a likely southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_Nov._25,_2018.png Size: 47 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #518
  • Nov 26, 2018 12:01am Nov 26, 2018 12:01am
Hello KeenPips,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. It is really valuable. Requesting you to include EURGBP too.
By the way, do you consider Elliott Wave principles in your analysis ? What is your opinion about that ?
Regards,
  • #519
  • Nov 26, 2018 3:59am Nov 26, 2018 3:59am
Thanks mate for your kind remark. My weekly technical analysis results from a scan of the pairs currently on my watch list. The EURGBP is not currently on the list as I dropped it a few months back. I will be watching it for a while to consider if it can make it back to the list. Regarding EW principles, I use them as a guide but I don't swear by them.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting mavilakandy
Hello KeenPips, Thanks for sharing your thoughts. It is really valuable. Requesting you to include EURGBP too. By the way, do you consider Elliott Wave principles in your analysis ? What is your opinion about that ? Regards,
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #520
  • Dec 2, 2018 2:45pm Dec 2, 2018 2:45pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In early November 2018, price action on NZDUSD broke northwards of a descending channel (blue) within which it has been operating for several months. It is now respecting a mini ascending trendline (red) on the daily time frame formed by recent lows and located around a horizontal resistance in the 0.68900 area. Attempts by bulls to take price action beyond the high created on November 16, 2018 have not met with much success and we may see a southward retracement, perhaps to the mini support around 0.67190. This may also extend to the 0.66600 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_D1_Dec._2,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


On the H4 time frame, recent price action has a top ‘wicky’ formation at a horizontal resistance area; which is indicative of a weakening of a bullish push through the area. Price action has failed to close above the high of November 16, 2018 in spite of several attempts by bulls. We can see a mini consolidation channel, a wedge pattern (magenta) formed around the present location of price action. A southward breakdown of the wedge is apparently imminent.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H4_Dec._2,_2018.png Size: 49 KB

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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