Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The northward retracement of price action on the weekly time frame around the multi-year ascending trendline (red) two weeks ago, continued last week. Technically, bulls are positioned to still take price action further northward and may expose the 1.16170 area before a southward turnaround. The 61.8/78.6 Fib retracdement zone of the most recent downward swing on the weekly time frame is located around the 1.16170/1.16830 area and may be a significant area to watch should a bearish setup develop there.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel (magenta). For much of last week, it has been constrained by a descending trendline (DarkGoldenrod) from recent highs. However, technicals still favour bulls to move price action beyond the trendline. A natural target of bulls is likely to be around the channel resistance.

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I am not trading this pair until a bearish setup develops in an area of value on a daily closing basis.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Wishing you all God's blessings for greater success in 2019.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since November 2018, price action on GBPUSD on the weekly time frame has been operating and constrained between an outer (red) and an inner (black) ascending trendlines traceable to January 2017. Presently, it is located around a minor horizontal resistance but we may see bulls take it further northward to test the inner ascending trendline (black) or the horizontal resistance around the 1.29670 area.

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The H4 time frame shows a GBPUSD market in consolidation. However, the technical pattern on the H4 time frame indicates that we may have some northward move to an area of value, usually a brokendown horizontal support, before any bearish turnaround. The 1.28000/1.29670 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) may yield itself for such a retracement and subsequent bearish turnaround. However, a significant southward breakdown of the mini ascending trendline (blue) on the H4 time frame is likely to produce a feasible sell trading opportunity. Such a breakdown may be in the shape of a bearish break on an H4 closing basis followed by a northward retest yielding a further bearish rejection of the trendline.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Wishing you all God's blessings for greater success in 2019.

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURJPY market experienced a strong bearish move in the latter part of last week. The weekly time frame printed a bearish candlestick with over 800 pips of southward move to the 117.850 support zone before a northward retracement of around 600 pips, leaving a long lower shadow. Price action is currently located in a breached support zone. Giving the swiftness of the northward retracement, we are likely going to see a retest of the 117.850 area in the next few days. Any attempt by bulls to take price action further northward is likely to meet resistance in the form of a descending trendline (magenta) from August 2018.



On the daily time frame, last week Wednesday, price action moved southward of a horizontal channel (gold), making over 700 bearish pips before bulls seized the initiative on Friday to move it back northward and about 140 pips to the channel support. Much likely we may see bulls take price action a bit further northward, perhaps to retest the channel support before any southward turnaround.



Price action on the H4 time frame is disposed northwards, respecting a minor ascending trendline (blue). Technically, the move appears to be corrective in nature. A break of the ascending trendline (blue) by price action on a 4-hourly basis plus its retest producing a bearish setup is likely to provide a feasible sell trading opportunity. On a short-term basis, bulls are favoured to control price action, but on a medium-term basis, bears are technically favoured.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The weekly time frame shows the GBPAUD market in consolidation. An ascending channel (blue) is discernible on the daily time frame for this corrective phase. A basic wave analysis indicates that a southward wave is in the offing after the correction. Last week, price action printed a bearish pinbar whose long upper tail nearly kissed the channel resistance and retested a resistance zone, the 1.86300 area, that has held as resistance for quite a while. We should also be aware of the two descending trendlines (red and blue) from June 2015 which seem to constrain recent price action, the outer trendline (red) is acting as resistance, while the inner trendline (blue) is acting as support.



The daily time frame technically indicates that the impulse wave or predominant trend is southwards. Although the bearish pinbar printed last week Thursday had little follow-through on Friday, the total bearish move on the two days strongly indicated that bears were rejecting the 1.86300 zone, being a strong resistance zone. If we have a bullish move in the early part of this week, it will likely be a corrective move. The bears are technically favoured to take control of price action on a medium-term basis.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the weekly time frame has moved further upwards from an outer ascending trendline (red) traceable to August 2017 and it is now operating within an ascending channel (blue). Last week, it printed a bearish candlestick. Given the recent pattern of price action on the weekly time framr, we may see a bearish continuation this week, which may eventually lead to a breakdown of the channel support.



On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating along an ascending channel (magenta) and is presently located near the channel support and a confluence of the horizontal support around the 1.33260 area. If there is a northward turnaround in that area this week, we may see bulls target the channel resistance or the horizontal resistance around 1.37500. Alternatively, a southward continuation is likely to result from the breakdown of the channel support, and may target the horizontal support around 1.31550.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the EURUSD is still operating within the ascending channel created from two ascending trendlines (red and blue) traceable to January 2017. Last week, price action printed an indecision candlestick which spanned both the channel resistance and channel support. Are we going to see further consolidation of price action within the channel this week?



The daily time frame shows a market in consolidation. However, from the technical pattern of price action on the daily time frame, we may see a further northward move this week, perhaps to the horizontal resistance around 1.15600, before a southward disposition.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bullish pinbar last week and we may see a follow through northward move this week. However, as price action is operating within two ascending trendlines (red and black) traceable to January 2019. Thus, we may see the inner ascending trendline (black) acting as resistance to further northward move. Of course, such a move has the potential of 200 pips. The 1.29400 area is a horizontal resistance to watch.



A descending channel (blue) is discernible on the daily time frame and price action is operating in it. Last week Thursday, price action printed a bullish pinbar and was followed up on Friday by a further northward move. However, the horizontal resistance around 1.27500 hindered the bullish drive. We may see bulls make further attempt to take price action northwards at least in the early part of this week. Technically, the disposition is northwards on the short term, and southward on the medium term.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is technically disposed northward. On the weekly time frame, price action since November 2018 has largely been under the influence of bulls. However, as it reaches a horizontal resistance around 1300.00 the bullish momentum is waning; reflected in the miniature candlesticks formed on the weekly time frame in the past two weeks. We may see a southward pullback this week.



On the daily time frame, price action is bearing northwards and respecting an ascending trendline (black) from the low of November 2018. Presently, price action is around a congestion zone that was last visited in June 2018 and, judging from the present candlestick pattern in the area, we may see a southward retracement.



Price action on the H4 time frame has moved further northward away from an outer ascending trendline (black) seen on the daily time frame and an inner one (red) is now in play. Presently, a wedge pattern (magenta) has been formed and price action is printing topping candlesticks within it. This may give way to a southward pullback in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, price action retraced northward after the flash crash that happened two weeks ago. Although we may see further northward move early this week, perhaps to the 126.180/127.800 area, this retracement should be seen as temporary in nature. On the medium term basis, the technicals on the weekly time frame are in favour of bears.



On the daily time frame, price action was in consolidation for much of last week, after a bullish move on Monday. Much likely, bulls may take price action to the immediate horizontal resistance around the 125.500 area in the early part of this week.

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I am bearish EURJPY in the medium term; so I will wait out the early price action this week – which is likely to be northwards and to a good value area for me to look for a sell trading opportunity.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The bullish candlestick which formed on the monthly time frame in November 2016, has in the main, been a reference or controlling candlestick for much of subsequent price action. The flash crash last week saw price action teasing the lower part of this same candlestick; much likely we may see a retest during the remaining part of this month. I am bearish USDJPY.



On the weekly time frame, the 104.050/114.230 zone has clearly provided a channel within which much of price action has operated since 2017. Within the channel, presently price action is largely disposed southwards. The long-tailed bearish candlestick formed two weeks ago is likely to be an opportunity for reprogramming price action to retest a value area northward and we may see a southward continuation this week.



The technicals on the daily time frame are favourable for a bearish continuation after a brief northward retracement. Thus, in the short term, price action is likely to head northwards. It may then yield to a southward turnaround at an area of value, e.g. a pivot area, resistance zone or within the short MAs. The monthly pivot, around 110.900, is likely an area to watch for such a southward turnaround.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is still in sideways operation. On the weekly time frame, presently price action predominantly operates in the 1.12660/1.15700 zone. The upper-tailed bullish candlestick printed last week indicated that bears were restraining momentum to the upside and we may see them maintain the pressure in the early part of this week.



The daily time frame shows a EURUSD market choppy and bears putting pressure on bulls to constrain any northward drive. We are likely to see bears push price action southward, at least briefly in the early part of this week, and then give way to further sideways operation.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has a positive tone. However, the bullish momentum is waning. On the weekly time frame, price action has struggled for three weeks to break out of a horizontal resistance zone that was last visited in June 2018. In fact, last week, price action printed a bearish candlestick in the area. The technicals on the weekly time frame are ambivalent.



On the daily time frame, on January 3, 2019, price action made a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from April 11, 2018. Thereafter, it entered a horizontal consolidation for several days. Last week Friday, price action moved southward, about 50 pips, below the area of consolidation. Technnically, there is still a likelihood of further northward move, but we may see bears take price action further southward in the early part of this week before a bullish turnaround. The inner ascending trendline (black) could act as support. However, we should watch out for a significant break of the outer ascending trendline (red), which will invalidate any bullish outlook.



On the H4 time frame, recent price action has broken down and invalidated a minor ascending trendline (magenta) from recent lows. We may see a southward continuation this week. The 1255.90 area is a horizontal support, which may be a target of bears.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The bullish move on the EURJPY market which kicked in two weeks ago is waning in momentum. On the weekly time frame, price action is inching towards a horizontal resistance around the 125.350 area but we may see bulls target the monthly pivot around 126.730.



The daily time frame shows that bulls are presently struggling to take price action further forward but a northward move is still in the works. The technical, however, show that bears re favoured to effect a southward turnaround after a brief northward move, perhaps to a mean value area. An inner descending trendline (black) from the high of September 24, 2018 is likely to act as resistance, while an outer one (red) from the high of February 2, 2018 is may play a role in the foreseeable future.



Price action is in consolidation on the H4 time frame. But the short-term technical mode is still northward, although this may be corrective in nature. Technically, we may see a southward turnaround after a northward correction.



I am bearish EURJPY.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outllook

The USDJPY has been consolidating for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, price action is operating in a triangular pattern (YellowGreen) and is being constrained towards the tip/apex of the triangle. In December 2018, bears took price action southward for over 500 pips.A follow-through was initiated in January 2019 when the flash crash took price action southward for over 500 pips. Although price action has retraced northwards, the technical pattern, looking left, indicate that bears are likely to make a further southward push. A break of the triangle support may see bears target the horizontal support around the 103.320 area (magenta).



The weekly time frame, shows a USDJPY market in a consolidation mode, which is likely corrective; apparently the impulse is towards the south. From basic wave analysis, we are seeing a complex correction which will likely give way to a southward continuation.



On the daily time frame, presently bulls are taking price action northwards.The horizontal resistance around 110.380/111.130 (bound by horizontal black lines) may be a natural target of bulls. However, a bearish setup in the area on a daily closing basis is likely to be followed up by a southward continuation.



On the H4 time frame, price action is heading northwards and apparently in a correction, from a technical point of view. A descending trendline (navy) is likely to be active as resistance. Also, we should be aware of the ascending trendline (red) from recent lows, which will have to be broken down by bears to sustain a southward momentum.



As a swing trader, I maintain a bearish outlook on USDJPY.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is in consolidation even though the technicals favour bears in the medium term. On the monthly time frame, price action is following through a 61.8 Fib retracement of the major downward swig that began in May 2014.



On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, a long-upper tailed candlestick was formed at a horizontal resistance around the 1.14300 area. This was followed through last week with a bearish continuation. As thee is a technical range 1.15650/1.11800 (bound by horizontal magenta lines), we may see bears drive price action towards the support zone this week.



On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating in a descending wedge/triangle (black) and a break out below is likely to spur a bearish continuation. However, as thee has been a bottoming pattern around the wedge support recently, we may see a northward retracement early this week, before a bearish southward turnaround. I am bearish EURUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Here's my view of the pairs that I'm looking at this week including rationale:
Top Left=W1
Top Right=D1

NZDUSD - Sell
DY: Price still indicating downward move
H4: Price reacting bearishly to 50MA as resistance level
H4: 20 MA crossing under 50 and 200MA


AUDNZD - Buy
WK: Bullish continuation,
WK: Price breaks above ascending trend-line since AUG 2016
DY: 20MA as support after breaking early JAN (old resistance, new support)
H4: Price in range expecting upward break once 20MA reaches
H4: Price above 20,50,200MA order, view as upward tren


NZDJPY - Buy
WK: Bullish engulfing pattern, followed by doji signifying some indecision however does not appear at any support or resistance zones
DY: MACD bullish cross over


AUDJPY - Sell
WK: Price didn’t break above the marked resistance area.
WK: rice below 20,50,200MA order, view as down trend
DY: Doji at short term resistance area
H4: Cloud cover pattern, Doji, shooting star,
H4: Price at top of BB
H1: Price below 20MA signifying potential to move down


USDJPY - Buy
WK: Doji, Bullish engulfing, Morning star
WK: Price at bottom of BB
DY: Price breaks short term resistance
DY: Price moves above 20MA
H1: Price reacting to 20MA as support



XAGUSD - Sell
WK: Dark cloud pattern
WK: Pattern at top of BB signifying over bought
WK: Price at 50% Fibonacci retracement area
DY: MACD cross under
DY: Price closed under 20MA

Good contribution mate. I am particularly impressed with your direct approach

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Good day to you,

Thanks, We'll see what happens over the next few days..

Sure, the medium-to-long term situation is more important than the temporary 'knee jerks' or the spur of the moment.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market continues to notch up. On the weekly time frame, last week, price action produced a relatively big bullish candlestick which shot away from a consolidation area. It is now nestled in a resistance zone and we may expect sideways, or a brief retracement, of price action in the early part of this week. At any rate, technically, the bulls are favoured to remain influential in the medium term.

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On the daily time frame, price action was respecting an outer ascending trendline (red) from November 2018 but has moved further northward to respect an inner ascending trendline (black), an indication of an increase in bullish momentum. Furthermore, looking left, we can see that a bullish break of the previous descending trendline (magenta) apparently gave way to an impulsive northward wave; and we are likely riding an impulsive rather than a corrective wave at the moment. At any rate, as long as the outer ascending trendline (red) holds on a daily closing basis, we can have confidence in a bullish drive.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has entered a resistance zone around the 1303.00 area. But bulls seem to have the momentum behind them and may head further northwards, exposing the 1321.00 handle, which aligns with the 78.6 Fib retracement of the southward drop from the high of April 11, 2018 to the low of August 15, 2018. I am bullish XAUUSD until we reach that zone. From there, I expect a southward retracement to retest the inner ascending trendline (black).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP