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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #481
  • Oct 21, 2018 3:04pm Oct 21, 2018 3:04pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The downward move on the AUDUSD market that started upon the break of the ascending channel (black) in June 2018 has not seen significant momentum. On the weekly time frame, even though the market is still disposed southward, there has been a series of northward corrections. Four weeks ago, price action printed a bearish candlestick after a northward pullback and was followed through with bearish continuation prints a week later. However, the candlestick printed two weeks ago was bullish, indicating bulls were giving bears a tough fight. Last week, price action printed a doji-like candlestick around an S/R zone but it is not within the mean area and so we may have to wait for a further upward pullback or sideways operation for the mean reversion zone to be activated. A likely area for a bearish turnaround is the monthly pivot, around the 0.72060 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_October_21,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is rotating upwards in a descending channel (chocolate). Based on the technical pattern on the daily time frame, we may see a period of sideways operation or a slight bullish move towards the channel resistance before a southward turnaround. At any rate, we are likely to see the channel resistance hinder further northward move. I am bearish AUDUSD. But I will wait for price action to give me a clear bearish setup, perhaps around the channel resistance or the monthly pivot (around 0.72060).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending flag pattern (magenta); a bearish potential in the context of the daily and weekly technical outlook. But it will take a a breakdown of the flag for a southward momentum to materialize.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_October_21,_2018.png Size: 58 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #482
  • Oct 21, 2018 3:33pm Oct 21, 2018 3:33pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is still largely disposed southward, operating in a multi-year descending channel (red). However, on the monthly time frame, presently price action is operating northwards and respecting a minor ascending trendline (black). Recent operation has lacked momentum, been mainly sideways and limited within a horizontal consolidation (bound by blue horizontal lines).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_MN_October_21,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating along an ascending trendline (black) seen on the monthly time frame. Presently, price action is disposed northwards and we may see bulls target the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.16470 area. A northward move is likely to be maintained as long as the ascending trendline holds on a daily closing basis. However, this should be seen in the context of a ranging market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, we should be wary of some barriers to a northward move: some minor horizontal resistance and a minor descending trendline (yellowish green) from recent price action. Nevertheless, a major worry is likely to be the longer descending trendline (magenta) from the high of April 17, 2018, particularly if we have a bearish setup in confluence with, or at, the horizontal resistance around the 1.17240 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_October_21,_2018.png Size: 51 KB



Personally, I am stepping aside from this market. I am not going to be taken in by any bullish mode. I will wait for a good bearish setup at an area of value.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #483
  • Oct 21, 2018 3:39pm Oct 21, 2018 3:39pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is disposed southwards and operating in a descending channel (red) on the weekly time frame. Presently, price action is on a northward correction but stuck in a wedge (yellowish green). A few wicky candlesticks formed in recent weeks point to the weakness of the bullish mode. And we are likely going to see a southward turnaround, particularly upon a breakdown of the wedge (yellowish green). An ascending trendline (blue) will likely act as a first support and the horizontal support around the 1.27240 area may be an initial target of bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_October_21,_2018.png Size: 55 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is in consolidation within the ascending wedge (yellowish green) seen on the weekly time frame. Presently, a northward mode is in operation. But we may see this move hindered by the minor horizontal resistance around the 1.32600 area. A minor ascending trendline (magenta) may also be instrumental as resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_October_21,_2018.png Size: 57 KB


Technically, and as a swing trader, I am bearish GBPUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #484
  • Oct 28, 2018 3:27pm Oct 28, 2018 3:27pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, price action has been operating in a descending channel (red) for quite a while. Presently, price action has moved to a confluence of a horizontal support (around 1.27600) and an ascending trendline (black) from January 2017.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A broadening ascending wedge (blue) can be seen on the daily time frame, with price action presently at the wedge support. Given the general technical outlook on the daily time frame, a simple wave analysis indicates that a corrective phase is in place, with three minor price waves already completed within the wedge. We may see a northward move of price action, perhaps to around the monthly pivot (1.30372), which is in confluence with the immediate horizontal resistance, before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_Oct._28,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #485
  • Oct 28, 2018 3:48pm Oct 28, 2018 3:48pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

While price action on the monthly time frame is broadly operating in a multi-year downward sloping channel (red), recent price action has moved to a confluence of a horizontal support (around 1.13780) and an ascending trendline (black) from December 2016.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action is basically disposed southwards. An outer trendline (blue) is likely to be important in case of a northward pullback, while an inner trendline (magenta) is presently in play as resistance. As price action is in a confluence of a horizontal support seen on the monthly time frame and an ascending trendline (black), we may see a northward correction, perhaps to the descending trendline (magenta), before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the H4 time frame printed a bullish outlook in the last two sessions on Friday. We may expect a further upward move in the early part of this week before a southward turnaround. A retracement of price action to a descending micro trendline (chocolate) resulting in a bearish setup may provide an impetus for a southward momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_Oct._28,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #486
  • Oct 29, 2018 5:07pm Oct 29, 2018 5:07pm
Hello KeenPips . I find my style of analysis is very similar to yours.
Happy I found your thread. It is a professional one.

My methodology of trading is to find entries near key swing points as close as possible after key rejection of an important HTF level (Pattern/S/R/TL).



CADJPY


Weekly TF: We in an upward direction of which price range is getting narrower with in a triangle formation reflecting the slope of the Highs.

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Daily TF: We have a smaller structure of which price touched an upward trend line for the third time and bounced from it. The key here is to think if price wants to test the weekly upward trend line or would find enough support from the smaller daily structure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H4 TF / H1 TFs: Price is finding support at a previous S/R zone (two small lime lines) of which I expect further moves to the upside.

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  • #487
  • Edited 9:36pm Oct 29, 2018 5:34pm | Edited 9:36pm
EUR CHF

Weekly TF: Price is clearly bullish as it tested an upward trend line and broke another downward trend line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFWeekly.png Size: 19 KB


Daily TF: We are in a rising pattern of which could be argued as a pre-attempt to break south and retest the weekly TL. However, I am interested in the immediate bounce of the lower line of the wedge to the upside for the time being. We also have a strong bullish engulfing daily candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H4 TF: My bullish bias is much clearer with long wick rejection of previous minor support congestion.

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  • #488
  • Oct 31, 2018 8:59am Oct 31, 2018 8:59am
I closed EURCHF at around 25 pips in profit for each of the two lots. I was not comfortable with the performance of Euro against other currencies.

CADJPY is doing very well.
  • #489
  • Oct 31, 2018 1:33pm Oct 31, 2018 1:33pm
Thanks mate! Remember, I mentioned this sometime ago when I posted on your thread.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting mtharwat
Hello KeenPips . I find my style of analysis is very similar to yours. Happy I found your thread. It is a professional one. My methodology of trading is to find entries near key swing points as close as possible after key rejection of an important HTF level (Pattern/S/R/TL). CADJPY Weekly TF: We in an upward direction of which price range is getting narrower with in a triangle formation reflecting the slope of the Highs. {image} Daily TF: We have a smaller structure of which price touched an upward trend line for the third time and bounced from...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #490
  • Oct 31, 2018 10:29pm Oct 31, 2018 10:29pm
Quoting KeenPips
Thanks mate! Remember, I mentioned this sometime ago when I posted on your thread. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}

Oh ya..

when I posted in your thread, I forgot you have before posted in mine..

I like the rules you set in your first post. Annotations and MTF charts together. I do the same as well.

Regrading refining and sniggering the entry, I am still in a hunt for the best way to do this. I now prefer breakout of small patterns on LTF. I tried pitchfork but did not really give me an edge. I sometimes consider MAs (a combination of 10, 20, 50 etc..) to pinpoint the entry on LTF when all MAS are very close to each other and price reject them.

I am looking for more variables now to consider. For example Currency Indices (non tradable and synthetic charts for individual currencies with average weighing against other currencies). I believe there is a gem in such indices. And also now considering Stock Indices that are correlated to the currency. For ex: Nikki for yen, ASX for Aid, Oil for canada, etc... This will give an edge in establishing the overall bias.

So far, I believe the extra confirmation those variables provide are giving me an edge but there is still work for improvement.

God luck mate. I will visit yours from time to another. You do the same as well.
  • #491
  • Nov 1, 2018 3:56am Nov 1, 2018 3:56am
An interesting post, mate.

It's important to have, know and use what gives you a competitive edge as a retail Forex trader.

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Oh ya.. when I posted in your thread, I forgot you have before posted in mine.. I like the rules you set in your first post. Annotations and MTF charts together. I do the same as well. Regrading refining and sniggering the entry, I am still in a hunt for the best way to do this. I now prefer breakout of small patterns on LTF. I tried pitchfork but did not really give me an edge. I sometimes consider MAs (a combination of 10, 20, 50 etc..) to pinpoint the entry on LTF when all MAS are very close to each other and price reject...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #492
  • Nov 4, 2018 2:02pm Nov 4, 2018 2:02pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bullish pinbar formed two weeks ago on the AUDUSD found a follow-through last week. On the weekly time frame, bulls took price action to the horizontal resistance around 0.72580 before bears checkmated their move. How price action reacts around the descending trendline (black) from recent highs in the early part of this week may be decisive. A northward breakout from the trendline will likely see bulls target the next horizontal resistance around 0.73080;while a bearish turnaround at the trendline may give confidence to bears to turn their attention to the 0.70300 handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 42 KB


On the daily time frame, price action broke out of a consolidation area on Thursday last week but there was little follow-through on Friday. Although the bearish candlestick with a doji-like feature which formed last Friday bounced off the descending trendline (black) seen on the weekly time frame, the recent price action pattern on the daily time frame indicates that we may have a retest of the trendline before we can have confidence in a bearish turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the AUDUSD is disposed northwards. Presently, price action is located around a minor support area, around 0.71900. Yet, the significant bullish candlesticks printed recently indicate that bulls are more likely to take price action further northwards, which is likely to be a temporary move. The horizontal resistance around 0.73080 is likely to be influential. A bearish turnaround in the area is likely to give impetus for a bearish momentum, which may eventually expose the handle around 0.70300. I am disposed to looking for a southward trading opportunity on the AUDUSD market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #493
  • Nov 4, 2018 2:37pm Nov 4, 2018 2:37pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

We are having a sideways or consolidating phase in the GBPUSD market. On the weekly time frame, we are dealing with two influential trendlines, an ascending trendline (red) from January 2017 and a descending trendline (black) from recent highs. They may have a restraining effect on the momentum of price action. As the candlestick printed last week is significantly bullish, we may see a further northward move in the early part of next week. But bulls have a few barriers to contend with; one of them is the horizontal resistance around 1.31350.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


On the daily time frame, two bottoms are distinct around the 1.26900 area. The second bottom was formed last week Thursday and a strong bullish continuation was witnessed on Friday. Technically, we may have a further bullish move, at least in the early part of this week. As my medium-term bias is bearish GBPUSD, I will wait out the Monday market; I rarely trade on Mondays. If a feasible bearish setup emerges upon the close of Monday market, particularly around an area of value, that will pique my interest.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #494
  • Nov 4, 2018 2:56pm Nov 4, 2018 2:56pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The ambivalence we have been witnessing in the EURUSD market in recent weeks has continued. Last week, price action printed an indecision candlestick on the weekly time frame. The print is located at a significant support zone, around the 1.13900 area. The zone has held as support since July 2017 and recent attempt by bears to breach it southwards has not been fruitful. We may see a northward retracement before bears make another attempt to break the zone. The 1.14800 area is likely to act as resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 44 KB


On the daily time frame, after a bearish mode last week Tuesday and Wednesday, bulls seized the initiative for a strong bullish drive. However, they were checkmated on Friday when a bearish counter force ended in a doji-like candlestick which nestled around a minor horizontal support, the 1.14120 area. Personally, I expect bulls to push price further northward before bears could seize the initiative. The descending trendline (red) from the high of September 24, 2018 may act as resistance. The 1.15900 area is technically an alternative resistance should bulls mitigate the descending trendline.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 45 KB


On the H4 time frame, recent price action is operating in a descending channel (magenta). Price action from Monday through Thursday last week headed northwards towards the channel resistance, and we may not have seen the end of a further northward move. But the channel resistance line and the descending trendline (red) seen on the daily time frame may hinder a bullish run. I expect price action to dispose southward after the present northward retracement. A southward breach of the minor ascending/counter channel or flag (black) on a daily closing basis is likely to give me a cue for a southward trade. Of course, I will see a surge of price action further northwards towards the significant horizontal resistance around 1.15900 as a good opportunity to look for a bearish setup.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_Nov._4,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #495
  • Nov 11, 2018 2:34pm Nov 11, 2018 2:34pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bigger technical outlook of the AUDUSD market is bearish. However, present market sentiment favours the bulls and so we may have a further northward move of price action in the early part of this week.

On the weekly time frame, price action is located around an area of congestion with the immediate horizontal resistance just a few pips northwards in the 0.73700 area. Last week, price action surged northwards as a follow-up to the bullish print of two weeks ago. However, bears stepped in to hinder the bullish move and a bullish candlestick with a long upper wick was printed. It is not a bearish pinbar in my reckoning and I expect bulls to still take price action further northwards, particularly in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


On the daily time frame, price action continues to operate in a descending channel (black) and presently, it is located near the channel resistance. Technically, bulls are favoured to take price further northwards but the momentum is likely to be hindered. Should price action breach the channel resistance, the horizontal resistancde around the 0.73100 area may constitute a strong barrier. We may see a southward turnaround soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 56 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is bearing southwards but the minor ascending trendline (magenta) from recent low swings is likely to act as support. And there is a minor horizontal support located around the 0.71800 area. I will be looking for a solid bearish setup should price go further northwards to an area of value or should there be a significant break of the ascending trendline (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 57 KB



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #496
  • Nov 11, 2018 2:43pm Nov 11, 2018 2:43pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The predominance of ‘wicky’ upper-tailed candlesticks around the 1.31100 area on the weekly time frame points to a bearish rejection of the area. Nevertheless, as there was a strong bullish print two weeks ago, the bearish pinbar printed last week may be followed up by a northward pullback, albeit to retest the 1.31100 area. Should there be a bearish setup on at least a daily closing basis in the area, we may see a momentum for a sustainable southward turnaround. This may expose the horizontal support around the 1.27100 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


On the daily time frame, price action has moved to a reaction area, the 1.29500 area, where we may expect a northward pullback judging from recent technical patterns. However, such a pullback may be hindered. For one, how price action reacts to a descending trendline (magenta) from the early part of this year should be of interest. A bearish setup around it is likely to give a southward momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #497
  • Nov 11, 2018 2:49pm Nov 11, 2018 2:49pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been technically erratic for quite a while. However, it is important to realize that apart from the uncertainties occasioned by fundamentals, price action is at an area of significant support on both the monthly and weekly time frames. So, anything can happen.

On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bearish candlestick at a horizontal support zone last week. But this zone that has held firmly for quite a while and we may still see some struggle in the zone between bulls and bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


On the H4 time frame, recent price action is in consolidation. But technically, bulls seem intent at taking it further northwards. However, they are likely to meet resistance around the 1.13580 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_Nov._11,_2018.png Size: 43 KB


I will use Monday to watch further price action on this pair.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #498
  • Nov 11, 2018 4:09pm Nov 11, 2018 4:09pm
Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The EURUSD market has been technically erratic for quite a while. However, it is important to realize that apart from the uncertainties occasioned by fundamentals, price action is at an area of significant support on both the monthly and weekly time frames. So, anything can happen. On the weekly time frame, price action printed a bearish candlestick at a horizontal support zone last week. But this zone that has held firmly for quite a while and we may still see some struggle in the zone between bulls and bears. {image}...
Thanks for the charts..do you have for gold if possible
  • #499
  • Nov 11, 2018 4:41pm Nov 11, 2018 4:41pm
I appreciate your remark. I have gold on my watch list but upon my pre-market analysis it does not meet my criteria for tracking this week. The XAUUSD market is still ambivalent (sideways).

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting anaskm1985
{quote} Thanks for the charts..do you have for gold if possible
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #500
  • Nov 11, 2018 5:05pm Nov 11, 2018 5:05pm
Quoting KeenPips
I appreciate your remark. I have gold on my watch list but upon my pre-market analysis it does not meet my criteria for tracking this week. The XAUUSD market is still ambivalent (sideways). Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
Thanks alot
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