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Trading Made Simple

  • #92,101
  • Oct 22, 2018 1:44am Oct 22, 2018 1:44am
Quoting VanTharp
{quote} I will go for Case #1 which has the minimum maximal drawdown. Saving your capital is the most important thing in trading.
You would be mad to trade any of those models with a draw down so high yet with a return that shows only a profit factor of 1.20.
However if we lowered the trade size to about 1/8 of the size and trade the 10 best pairs at the same time, we would probably get the same profit amount with only around a 10% drawn down. This would make an acceptable inclusion for a portfolio.
Result would be the same profit which is fine with lower risk spread out over many pairs.

You still can't get rich with TMS due to the very low profit factor.

However Emmanuels' showing us a Lotto style of high risk / high return TMS trading for those skilled traders who love to live in the fast lane.
Give me a profit factor around 3 and I may get interested.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #92,102
  • Oct 22, 2018 1:57am Oct 22, 2018 1:57am
Quoting RickM
You still can't get rich with TMS due to the very low profit factor.
You mean in case of an EA?
  • #92,103
  • Oct 22, 2018 2:40am Oct 22, 2018 2:40am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You mean in case of an EA?
Yes for an EA but we were looking at a MT4 tester were we.

But for for manual trading probably a lot higher if your good at PA and are very disciplined with your trading. I doubt however your talents should remain here with TMS if you reach that level of trading ability.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #92,104
  • Edited 3:50am Oct 22, 2018 2:44am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Yes for an EA but we were looking at a MT4 tester were we. But for for manual trading probably a lot higher if your good at PA and are very disciplined with your trading. I doubt however your talents should remain here with TMS if you reach that level of trading ability.
I tried different EA´s based on the TDI crossover signal. They all suck, no matter what time frame, no matter what markets. Best profit factor was 1.2 or so with as drawdown of 30-55%.

My manual profit factor trying to trade the TMS based on a 3k live account is: Profit Factor: 4.63.

Gain:+64.85% Abs. Gain:+64.85% Daily: 1.12% Monthly: 39.15% Drawdown: 23.34% Balance: €4945.44 Equity: (99.93%) €4942.09 Highest: (Oct 22) €4945.44 Profit: €1945.44 Interest:-€50.07 Deposits: €3000.00

I am just having a hard time with all these false signals. Even if i try to be very selective i have about 3 out of 5 losing trades only compensated through risk/reward.

I could imagine achieving much better results if i could reduce the massive amounts of false signals which in my case still leads into over trading. But so far found no solution here working for me.

Trying to concentrate only on one market/chart i don´t find enough trading signals at all or if market condition is not given also leads into picking trades not fitting the rules. Watching more charts so far works best but on M15-H1 like said it feels like getting hundrets of false signals during one week of trading.

And H4+ even if resulting into less false signals and a little better profit average, trades are so rare i can´t see any advantage over making my 3-5% monthly with an EA on very moderate drawdown. So there is no need to manual pick these 1-2 high probability H4 trades a month just to make a few hundret pips if i can achieve the same with something conservative fully automated in the end booking in same results..

Check out this for e.g GU H1

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Now how do you make sure to only pick (1) instead of (2) and (3) ? Looks like an easy job now. But in time of the TDI Cross you could not really see if signal marked by 2 and 3 will not end same as good as (1).

This is all the time for every chart and even on H4 or Daily. The cross over signals it self simply is inaccurate. The only way you be able to survive here is to be cherry picking looking behind the HA candles, having a detailed look at PA of candles, spot S/R correctly, beware of news and so on and so on.

So like 10 more things you need to check on each of these signals to have a better chance. Now you get a 30000 cross over signals each week looking at 8 markets on M15 you have to do this 30000 times for each stupid TDI crossover just to find the 1 out of 10 maybe moving 20-30 pips in your favour?

And for the H4 believers. Please show me these charts for 8 pairs over the last 30 days where such TDI crossover signal did a better job than 50% accuracy?

So thats what i mean, the signal it self is so bad you could ditch the TDI and trade a naked chart. Because tell me what it helps to have a fuck load of signals simply not saving you any time because you still have to draw your self the complete picture for each of them.

Now i can´t wait for Tekkies to jump in here posting a cherry picked TDI winner on M15-H1 without posting the many false signals he must got even with trading only Dax
  • #92,105
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:50am Oct 22, 2018 3:50am
Don't agree with this:
"You still can't get rich with TMS due to the very low profit factor."
Depends on how well you understand this method. Your level of self discipline to follow post#647.
---------
".......Trying to concentrate only on one market/chart i don´t find enough trading signals at all .......... getting hundreds of false signals during one week of trading............."
Really that bad?
With practice and chart time you will find those trade signals.
Bounce trade of M15 green
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  • #92,106
  • Edited 4:06am Oct 22, 2018 3:55am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting Tekkies
Don't agree with this: "You still can't get rich with TMS due to the very low profit factor." Depends on how well you understand this method. Your level of self discipline to follow post#647. --------- ".......Trying to concentrate only on one market/chart i don´t find enough trading signals at all .......... getting hundreds of false signals during one week of trading............." Really that bad? With practice and chart time you will find those trade signals. Bounce trade of M15 green {image}
Thats what i mean Tekkies. I don’t want to „find“ these and have to make the right choice I pick the 1 out of 10 that results in a win. From a „system“ or a „strategy“ with clear rules i expect to filter the shit out of it (at least it becomes a 60% win chance by default) so I don’t have do spend hours each day in front of the charts to do this my self.
  • #92,107
  • Oct 22, 2018 4:10am Oct 22, 2018 4:10am
Tekkies please look at the last 100 TDI cross overs for DE30 on M15 without cherry picking them on your personal experience.

Trade EVERY of them by a fixed 1:2 risk/reward as soon as the TDI cross happened with the close of the signal bars.

So if only 50 of them would have reached your profit target you should at least ended up positive.

Without having an idea of DE30 I guess your win rate here will be somewhere to 30% at best? And also tell me how many of them reached the profit target of 2 times higher than risk (stop loss).

i think then you will finally understand what I mean...
  • #92,108
  • Oct 22, 2018 5:01am Oct 22, 2018 5:01am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thats what i mean Tekkies. I don’t want to „find“ these and have to make the right choice I pick the 1 out of 10 that results in a win. From a „system“ or a „strategy“ with clear rules i expect to filter the shit out of it (at least it becomes a 60% win chance by default) so I don’t have do spend hours each day in front of the charts to do this my self.
You can't have your bread buttered on both sides. Either you decide to trade or not. Either you see trading as a job with fix hours ( 9 to 5) or have a good time with family.
-----------
I take a lot of small order's, every one a cherry pick. Break-even give every time a 1:2 profit. Always hoping that price will take orders from M15 to H1 to H4.
End of the day the profit is there.
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  • #92,109
  • Oct 22, 2018 5:09am Oct 22, 2018 5:09am
Quoting lddd
Tekkies please look at the last 100 TDI cross overs for DE30 on M15 without cherry picking them on your personal experience. Trade EVERY of them by a fixed 1:2 risk/reward as soon as the TDI cross happened with the close of the signal bars. So if only 50 of them would have reached your profit target you should at least ended up positive. Without having an idea of DE30 I guess your win rate here will be somewhere to 30% at best? And also tell me how many of them reached the profit target of 2 times higher than risk (stop loss). i think then you will...
Will do that with back testing later for you, not now. My way with M15 cross confirm by H1 green cross / direction
  • #92,110
  • Oct 22, 2018 5:19am Oct 22, 2018 5:19am
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Will do that with back testing later for you, not now. My way with M15 cross confirm by H1 green cross / direction
Thanks, i am also trying some backtests now.
  • #92,111
  • Edited 9:29am Oct 22, 2018 7:49am | Edited 9:29am
@Tekkies

DE30 H1 1 Year

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DE30 M15 30 Days

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EUR/USD M15 30 Days

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You see...

The TDI gives you an edge of flipping a coin. Actually flipping a coin is even more accurate

Now please give me a practical real life example of how you constantly trade M15/H1 profitable on a daily base?

Lets say you watch only 1 Chart (lets say DE30).

Now i see the following options you can do this:

A) By looking at your DE30 chart every 15 minutes
B) You set up the alarm and get a cross over alert for every 15 Minutes (worst case) the TDI red signal line crosses green...

This means maybe a 20-30 times a day you get a signal which is as accurate as a broken sniper of some 3rd world soldier :/

So you have to do all your manual observation and analyse a multiple times per day for every possible signal you get and make a decision if you trade it or not.

Pretty much the same i am doing so far but looking at far more markets than only DE30. And i don´t even trigger a lot of trades. From what i see here you have more trades on DE30 in 1 day sometimes as i have for 1 week watching 8-10 more markets

You can´t tell me that you are making constant good money like this without beeing stressed to the max.
  • #92,112
  • Oct 22, 2018 11:58am Oct 22, 2018 11:58am
A longer moving average may show things more clearly ie MA21 in addition to what is being used.
  • #92,113
  • Edited 1:14pm Oct 22, 2018 1:02pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting lddd
EUR/USD M15 30 Days.............. You can´t tell me that you are making constant good money like this without beeing stressed to the max.
Yes I do.
No I am not stress. (that is a lie - ate all my fingers, typing with toe's)
Yes, will have more trade's because a I see and treat it as day job. One that will and is putting food on the table and a bed to sleep in.
Only need a few trade's to make a profit. DE30 was ranging today. Post 820 (four accounts)
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---------------
What ever you used to do those back test are a bar late.
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-------------
Only entered a trade on M15 after H1 has completely crossed over. No stop loss, break-even or post#647.
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Did a similar back test from Jan 2017= Profit factor 9.27 Post 783 and Post 813 (use google translate)
--------
Iddd, so what if the alert call's you to the computer 20-30 times a day. From reading your post's you want to have it easy. Something like trends that run for 50, 100, 200 bar's with 1000 pips in each bar, a expert that does all the work. You want the money with out spending anytime in front of the computer, have no losing trade's, no serious study or chart time.
  • #92,114
  • Oct 22, 2018 1:24pm Oct 22, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Yes I do. No I am not stress. (that is a lie - ate all my fingers, typing with toe's) Yes, will have more trade's because a I see and treat it as day job. One that will and is putting food on the table and a bed to sleep in. Only need a few trade's to make a profit. DE30 was ranging today. {image} --------------- What ever you used to do those back test are a bar late. {image} ------------- Only entered a trade on M15 after H1 has completely crossed over. No stop loss, break-even or post#647. {image} Did a similar back test from Jan 2017=...
Thanks, yes possible that my entries with the EA for testing we’re late and some setting on it maybe too.

If you can send me the script you used for the MT4/5 strategy tester here for your results, this would be great so I can check this with my own tickdata.

And no I have no problems with losing trades but like said I can’t watch and cherry pick M15 setups like you do this perhaps.

You say DE30 is ranging but you still taking trades? You know it’s really hard to understand what you doing Tekkies, on one hand you always refer to Eric’s rules where one of it says, no trading ranging conditions on the other hand you post your trades here where exactly this is the case :-)

Please also try some backtest for 1-2 years for something like EU or GU.

If the results are good why do you still cherry pick trades and don’t give that EA a run?

For me time matters, so if you say the TDI automated in some way is able to generate a 2-3% monthly with no bigger drawdown than 10% I would not even think about trading this manual, why?
  • #92,115
  • Oct 22, 2018 1:58pm Oct 22, 2018 1:58pm
Quoting lddd
{quote}1If you can send me the script you used for the MT4/5 strategy tester here for your results, this would be great so I can check this with my own tickdata. And no I have no problems with losing trades but like said I can’t watch and cherry pick M15 setups like you do this perhaps. You say DE30 is ranging but you still taking trades? You know it’s really hard to understand what you doing Tekkies, on one hand you always refer to Eric’s rules where one of it says, no trading ranging conditions on the other hand you post your trades here where...
Did you not notice the expert to download in post#813
Have you forgotten a previous post that explained why a expert can not be profitable with this method.
How many times must member post over and over that when a higher time frame is ranging a lower time frame will have a trend to trade. BigE did not like to trade M1 to M30. I do like to trade those time frames with BigE's rules.

Time matters? Well if you have time to post in this thread. time does not really matter that much.
  • #92,116
  • Oct 22, 2018 2:23pm Oct 22, 2018 2:23pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} Did you not notice the expert to download in post#813 Have you forgotten a previous post that explained why a expert can not be profitable with this method. How many times must member post over and over that when a higher time frame is ranging a lower time frame will have a trend to trade. BigE did not like to trade M1 to M30. I do like to trade those time frames with BigE's rules. Time matters? Well if you have time to post in this thread. time does not really matter that much.
No, which previous post?

So you trade M15 if H1 is ranging or how to understand? If M15 is ranging you trade M5, if M15 is ranging you trade M1 ?

When a person to me says a market is ranging for 1-2 days I understand that’s its ranging for 1-2 days no matter for what time frame and not taking trades on it.

How can there be a „trend“, no matter for what timeframe you look at if the market I ranging for the entire day or longer.

These are no trends, these are little micro swings up and down for a few little pips.

If there were „real“ trends markets would move continuously on one direction for months without changing candle colors (that’s what a real trend in my eyes wood look like)

But okay, I understand so any expert on the TDI is giving at best 50% or will blow your account due to bigger draw down at some point.

And you results are more based on your personal experience and filtering out a dozens false signals each day manually. So this ja really not much to do with the TDI at all, can you tell me again where this helps you one bit?

Why do you even still look at the TDI if 90% of the decisions is made of your own eyes? Because you think the crossover is that what’s giving you momentum to push price with the start of the bar? That’s bullshit and you should know that too. It’s lagging you get late if you set up alerts + only a 50% chance the signal alone will give you a win. So sorry, still can’t see benefits here so far.

I could look at a naked chart without the TDI and would see no difference. Instead I would have the benefits of not getting screwed by 2 lines crossing over not giving one bit of extra trust to such naked trade.
  • #92,117
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:03pm Oct 22, 2018 3:03pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} No, which previous post? So you trade M15 if H1 is ranging or how to understand? If M15 is ranging you trade M5, if M15 is ranging you trade M1 ? When a person to me says a market is ranging for 1-2 days I understand that’s its ranging for 1-2 days no matter for what time frame and not taking trades on it. How can there be a „trend“, no matter for what timeframe you look at if the market I ranging for the entire day or longer. These are no trends, these are little micro swings up and down for a few little pips. If there were „real“ trends...
What previous post?
Hard time to understand this?:
Did a similar back test from Jan 2017= Profit factor 9.27 Post 783 and Post 813 (use google translate)

You should study that post by Emmanuel with the picture with the big green trend in to understand ranging and trending market.

Few little pips a day then this will change your mind:
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Those two lines crossing work just fine. Learn to use them. True TDI cross indicate a possible entry the rest is up to you. Are you serious about lagging. It only show how uninformed your are.
https://optimusfutures.com/tradeblog...ng-indicators/
https://www.tradeciety.com/is-price-...an-indicators/
http://www.smartmoneyforex.com/forex...-action-leads/
(it is a very old debate which will never end)

Iddd why do you bother to post in this thread? Every post you basically complain how bad TDI. You don't like TDI then find a method you do like.
  • #92,118
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:40pm Oct 22, 2018 3:40pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} What previous post? Hard time to understand this?: Did a similar back test from Jan 2017= Profit factor 9.27 Post 783 and Post 813 (use google translate) You should study that post by Emmanuel with the picture with the big green trend in to understand ranging and trending market. Few little pips a day then this will change your mind: {image} Those two lines crossing work just fine....
I am not complaining. I am trying to understand and from what I see I do at least understand that the TDI indicator it self doesn’t help finding an accurate entry.

All it does is showing a visual crossing of two lines like said, it doesn’t provide you with anything else you could find trust in, otherwise it would be better than a 50/50.

I understand that some indicator alone is not able to provide that but you don’t understand how to teach people how to use it properly, so I don’t understand why you still post some single picks of your TDI winners here.

Instead maybe show your daily routine, making videos of trading this , selecting your trades, tell us how to reduce so many false signals, and these
things.

All this would help people to see the bigger picture what’s involved in trading this strategy successfully.

If i try do to this like said following Erics rules and even try do avoid ranging conditions these setups works only for about half of the time.

I think i will give this topic a few more days until I am finally out of this place. As you said, it’s a waste of time here. No transparent help, only people starting little fights for no reason.

Nothing against you.
  • #92,119
  • Oct 22, 2018 3:56pm Oct 22, 2018 3:56pm
Quoting lddd
{quote}Instead maybe show your daily routine, making videos of trading this , selecting your trades, tell us how to reduce so many false signals, and these things.

All those things are already posted by BigE.
  • #92,120
  • Oct 22, 2018 5:18pm Oct 22, 2018 5:18pm
Quoting Tekkies
{quote} All those things are already posted by BigE.
No he gave only a few static rules and expected from TMS followers to already know about all the „basics“.

Where are his videos, money management rules, trading results over a series of trades over more than a few days and hand picked posted charts? I can’t find them, still not went through all his posts but I can’t find any.

Maybe anyone can do a video series for 1 month It even a week recording his daily routine with cherry picking TMS setups and after 1-2 months we will see what’s going on.

I think this could really bring in some benefits for newbies like me here. These are the really important things instead of posting random charts, not posting all the losing trades included and only on a random base. Sometimes, yes, sometimes not.

I think anyone can see what a TDI cross looks like, there is no need to discuss this over and over again like you said. However this is only like 2% of the strategy to make it constantly profitable.

Regarding the 5 Pips Strategy you refered to, 5 pips would be enough for me for 1 day but this guy, the OP of this topic not even has an exit plan. He sets no stop loss and therefor believes in a sniper accurate entry. But what if you internet connection is gone suddenly or you suffer from a heart attack and your one trade you could no close manual this time did you a margin call because of some large unexpected move or simply because you could not close it for days, weeks, monthes?

So even if I like the approach of doing little pips each day scalping or what you want to call it and run away as soon as possible if you hit one larger mistake you are gone. If you have a longer losing period like 10 losing for 50 pips you would need to make 10 more winning trade just to get back to break even if your SL was also a 5 pips so 1:1 risk/reward based on a 99% win rate accuracy here probably is the plan.
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