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Trading Made Simple

  • #92,081
  • Oct 19, 2018 12:17am Oct 19, 2018 12:17am
"traders lose significantly more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades"
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File Type: pdf TOST_3_0_Why_Do_Most_Traders_Lose_Money.pdf   1.5 MB | 970 downloads
  • #92,082
  • Edited 6:32am Oct 19, 2018 5:56am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} 1. Why oh why are the there so many people out there trying to turn this into a job? 2. In second and third world countries, a cent account will greatly augment their standard of living. Why do you think there are so many traders on here who do not speak good English? {quote} Ha! Cars crash because of a distracted driver 90% of the time, same reason that traders lose. The average( there are many above average) woman is not driven by logic, this has been well documented throughout the history of writing. Many times she does not understand...
1. Some people have hopes and dreams, their circumstances are personal and unique.

I think there are many reasons that traders lose. I am sure that many, given the right framework to operate in could be successful. But anybody who knows is not going to give that up easily, especially if it has taken them years to develop.

If you are fortunate enough to have had a good start in life, and had the good sense to capitalise on that then you have a level of 'comfort' most people dream of. Unfortunately, there are those that haven't but still they remain driven and aspirational. If they believe they can be successful at this, the biggest challenge I see is to cut through the bullshit that is so readily served up on the subject of 'trading'.

Yes, discipline is important. But if you apply that acting on BS information, you end up with an individual who doesn't know when to stick and when to quit.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #92,083
  • Edited 8:14am Oct 19, 2018 8:02am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting onejester
{quote} 1. Some people have hopes and dreams, their circumstances are personal and unique. I think there are many reasons that traders lose. I am sure that many, given the right framework to operate in could be successful. But anybody who knows is not going to give that up easily, especially if it has taken them years to develop. If you are fortunate enough to have had a good start in life, and had the good sense to capitalise on that then you have a level of 'comfort' most people dream of. Unfortunately, there are those that haven't but still they...
Well, to be honest, I thought I grew up poor. I did not realize any differently until I started to travel. Then I realized that I was part of the one percent in the world, just not in my country. The thing that a focused learner will realize is that trading is not that hard, it really isn't. We make it hard. Especially us males. We reinvent the wheel and then name it after ourselves. We rewrite indicators and then rename them. We talk about PA as if Japanese Candlesticks never existed.

Trading on the short term is nothing more than finding out where trapped bulls and bears are, and contribute to making them give up. Trading on the longer term is only being able to identify HL-HH and vice versa. What the heck is so hard about that? What is so hard about it is that it may take years to boil the sauce down to it's gravy when it comes to trading because there are so many rabbit holes to go down. To make it worse the gravy has to be your own recipe.

Fail fast.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #92,084
  • Edited 2:10pm Oct 19, 2018 1:02pm | Edited 2:10pm
The AUD/USD Short trade failed btw. There were again a lot of false signals even on the H4 the last week, not only for this pair.
  • #92,085
  • Oct 19, 2018 11:41pm Oct 19, 2018 11:41pm
Quoting lddd
The AUD/USD Short trade failed btw. There were again a lot of false signals even on the H4 the last week, not only for this pair.
Perhaps you can look into drawing chart patterns like wedges, triangles, channels and flags.
Those will give you an idea if a trade is available or not.
  • #92,086
  • Oct 20, 2018 3:32am Oct 20, 2018 3:32am
Quoting lddd
The AUD/USD Short trade failed btw. There were again a lot of false signals even on the H4 the last week, not only for this pair.
Maybe this just isn't your game.

You might be even better than the TDI. If Lddd takes a TMS trade, it is guaranteed to be in a trading range, or counter trend altogether. Fade the call.

Seriously though, if you look at closely correlated pairs, then you will have closely correlated results. Check out correlation. You could also wait to take a TMS signal near the top or bottom of a range. Do a search for Davit, he is a master at this and I have pivots on my charts.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #92,087
  • Oct 20, 2018 7:27am Oct 20, 2018 7:27am
Trading AUDUSD is like watching snails. Its slow moving and boring. Trading TMS requires a good average daily pip movement and there is no other pair better than GBPNZD.
In the first two weeks of October, GBPNZD has moved around 1600 pips.
In the first two weeks of October, AUDUSD has moved around 200 pips

Thats why I call GBPNZD the BEAST and its my DAX. I prefer to trade it on M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gn nnn.png Size: 279 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #92,088
  • Oct 20, 2018 11:33am Oct 20, 2018 11:33am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Maybe this just isn't your game. You might be even better than the TDI.


Fun fact: I have probably no idea what I am doing with the strategy but results are ok so far I think.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #92,089
  • Oct 20, 2018 11:33am Oct 20, 2018 11:33am
The GBPNZD is one of the best pairs to trade. I think it is becoming popular nowadays because its spread is now about 1 pip while it used to be about 5 or 6 in the past on the same broker.
  • #92,090
  • Oct 20, 2018 12:30pm Oct 20, 2018 12:30pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Fun fact: I have probably no idea what I am doing with the strategy but results are ok so far I think. {image}
Fantastic!

Now we know you are like another fond poster of the Factory by the name Mingary.

He would troll threads here saying FX does not work, only to find out he could trade just fine. I took a screenshot of this so all newcomers can see you are trolling and take it for what it is.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-10-21.png Size: 1.5 MB


You are a good troll Iddd, I like you.

Quoting RickM
Trading AUDUSD is like watching snails. Its slow moving and boring. Trading TMS requires a good average daily pip movement and there is no other pair better than GBPNZD. In the first two weeks of October, GBPNZD has moved around 1600 pips. In the first two weeks of October, AUDUSD has moved around 200 pips Thats why I call GBPNZD the BEAST and its my DAX. I prefer to trade it on M5 {image}
Here in the US the go to broker is OANDA. Spreads on the G/N is about 10 pips on a good day. It can get much higher on a spike. Then the pip value is bad. And heaven help you with that swap if you try to hold that sucker. Glad you guys over there can trade it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #92,091
  • Oct 20, 2018 1:05pm Oct 20, 2018 1:05pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Fantastic! Now we know you are like another fond poster of the Factory by the name Mingary. He would troll threads here saying FX does not work, only to find out he could trade just fine. I took a screenshot of this so all newcomers can see you are trolling and take it for what it is. {image} You are a good troll Iddd, I like you. {quote} Here in the US the go to broker is OANDA. Spreads on the G/N is about 10 pips on a good day. It can get much higher on a spike. Then the pip value is bad. And heaven help you with that swap...
Not sure what you mean, I am not trolling but okay what ever you say...
  • #92,092
  • Oct 20, 2018 6:21pm Oct 20, 2018 6:21pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Fantastic! Now we know you are like another fond poster of the Factory by the name Mingary. He would troll threads here saying FX does not work, only to find out he could trade just fine. I took a screenshot of this so all newcomers can see you are trolling and take it for what it is. {image} You are a good troll Iddd, I like you. {quote} Here in the US the go to broker is OANDA. Spreads on the G/N is about 10 pips on a good day. It can get much higher on a spike. Then the pip value is bad. And heaven help you with that swap...
My broker normally asks around 3 pips for G/N during the London session but who cares. Its current Average Daily Range over the last 10 days is 180 pips so it offers high reward. On the M5 chart, if you can trade each TDI cross to create a basket of 3 trades in a good up or down trend, the total pip win can easily hit 150 pips in two hours trading.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #92,093
  • Oct 20, 2018 7:29pm Oct 20, 2018 7:29pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} My broker normally asks around 3 pips for G/N during the London session but who cares. Its current Average Daily Range over the last 10 days is 180 pips so it offers high reward. On the M5 chart, if you can trade each TDI cross to create a basket of 3 trades in a good up or down trend, the total pip win can easily hit 150 pips in two hours trading.
Typical spread during the EU session for GBP/NZD is also around 3-3.5 for me. However i never considered trading this pair. Will have a look at it next week.

In any case i wonīt trade AUD/USD for longer. Never had good results with it, should have ditched it long before.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #92,094
  • Oct 21, 2018 6:22am Oct 21, 2018 6:22am
Quoting v2vboni
{quote} Hi Em, thanks for this sample chart set-up... I was wondering what would be your approach on this image below. It is the same setup as posted (big E's) with my modified and fused TDI (or TDZ) hybrid. On the chart you shared, with the original TDI, the entry would be on candle #2 for an aggressive entry. However, it seems with TDZ the conservative entry is candle #1, while candle #2 for conservative entry. {image} Now, with the current chart for EU H4 TF. I was thinking conservatively to wait for the price to break the lows of mother candle...

On chart 1, the entry candle #3 is still good since the Price Action shows momentum.

One chart 2, the breakout entry of Bar 2 is also good just following the Price Action with momentum.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #92,095
  • Oct 21, 2018 7:44am Oct 21, 2018 7:44am
According to that chart USDDKK is really the beast. I'll try it this week. Where do you access that chart?
  • #92,096
  • Oct 21, 2018 8:46am Oct 21, 2018 8:46am
Quoting spotrate
According to that chart USDDKK is really the beast. I'll try it this week. Where do you access that chart?
Its all about pip movement and quality of that move. A good move on GBPNZD is reliable and safe so I am happy to place my hard earned winnings on this pair. I know a good PA signal will turn into good green pips. I wouldn't like to gamble with USDDKK unless I had trialed all setup signals to see what percentage of them turned into profitable moves.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #92,097
  • Oct 21, 2018 6:31pm Oct 21, 2018 6:31pm
Quoting lddd
{image} What about this H4 trade? The H4 chart here is more like sideways than doing lower lows. But the Daily Chart making lower lows. So i took this short opportunity. However i was not checking for S/R either on Daily or H4. Also i didnīt care about the TDI green angle at the crossover or the levels of TDI or Stoch 68,32, 80,20 (Still do not really understand these, to me they just donīt tell much as price doesnīt seems to respect these levels more often than not). So i just took the trade mainly due to the facts "the market structure" looked...
The Weekly is narrow range sideways but to the downside. Selling with single entry/single exit will have many losing trades.

Quoting lddd
The AUD/USD Short trade failed btw. There were again a lot of false signals even on the H4 the last week, not only for this pair.

Quoting lddd
{quote} Typical spread during the EU session for GBP/NZD is also around 3-3.5 for me. However i never considered trading this pair. Will have a look at it next week. In any case i wonīt trade AUD/USD for longer. Never had good results with it, should have ditched it long before. {image}
Do not give up trading AUDUSD so quickly. You need to 'filter out' the market type condition where most of the trade setups will fail. You will have many losing weeks when the market is trading in narrow ranged sideways. The overall win rates are below 50%.

Of the three amigos, EURUSD ad GBPUSD are the better performers.
What I do is to trade all three pairs and including USDCAD as one pool over longer term.
AUDUSD did not have any major breakout so far this year.

If you simply take every mechanical rule trade 'signal' the end result can be different when you use a different exit method.

Below are 3 test results using H4 live data from Jan to Oct 19 2018.
Same mechanical rule for entry using the 5SMMA PAC and TDI.

Case#1 - using BreakEven BE move set to 25pips, and managing using CandleStick Trailing Stop Loss CTSL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Jan to Oct 19 2018 BE25 CTSL.png Size: 86 KB


Case #2 - using same BE 25pips, and managing with JumpingStop Loss JSL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Jan to Oct 19 2018 BE25 JSL.png Size: 87 KB


Case #3 - using same BE25pips and managing using Trailing Stop Loss TSL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Jan to Oct 19 2018 BE25 TSL25.png Size: 89 KB


What shall you do as the trader with this information?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #92,098
  • Oct 21, 2018 6:39pm Oct 21, 2018 6:39pm
Quoting spotrate
According to that chart USDDKK is really the beast. I'll try it this week. Where do you access that chart?

with a pip value of USD1.5 per pip????

better stick to trading EURUSD and GBPUSD @USD10.00 per pip.

https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/tools/pip-value


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDDKK volatility.png Size: 23 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #92,099
  • Oct 21, 2018 7:12pm Oct 21, 2018 7:12pm
Yes but adjustments could be made to lots to fix that. I just pull up a 1 minute chart, zoom all the way out and then compare the distance between bid and ask, with the distance of the movements. For USDDKK, it's not amazing but it's not bad either. It's very tradeable.
  • #92,100
  • Oct 21, 2018 11:56pm Oct 21, 2018 11:56pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
What shall you do as the trader with this information?
I will go for Case #1 which has the minimum maximal drawdown. Saving your capital is the most important thing in trading.
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