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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #181
  • Sep 21, 2018 9:37am Sep 21, 2018 9:37am
Looks like the Dow might have printed a double top (for now). But I don't think it's done yet. A pull back to either the 23.6 fib (from the Sept 18 low to today's high) or perhaps more likely the 38.2 level where it intersects with that major upper trendline and a bit of support at 26460 - sometime late next week - could be on the cards. Then a final leg up taking out today's high. Just my tuppence worth!
  • #182
  • Sep 24, 2018 9:56am Sep 24, 2018 9:56am
The Dow broke the all time high by 74 pips, but it is now south of it by 130. Right now therefore, we are looking at a double top situation, which is not to say that this is how it will stay, but for me, there is a 50/50 chance it will.

There will be an almost certain US interest rise of Wednesday, so we'll have to wait and see how the markets respond to that.
  • #183
  • Sep 24, 2018 10:10am Sep 24, 2018 10:10am
Over a 200 pip drop off the high and now at the 23.6 fib. Probably a bit more of a drop to go then it should start moving north again into Wednesday's Fed meeting.
  • #184
  • Sep 27, 2018 1:35am Sep 27, 2018 1:35am
So far at at least, everything is playing out. Dax is falling away from the 76.4% fib anbd the Dow is dropping away from its double top. Very hawkish Fed after last night's interest rate rise, so almost a dead cert for another rise in Dec and four more in 2019, unless of course, US stocks fall hard in response to last night's.

Dax H1 100sma is now over the top of the price just about the CP @ 373 so we might get a kick back up towards it before the price falls some more. Whether the Dax can now break through the narrowing apex of the pennant to the downside remains to be seen.
  • #185
  • Sep 28, 2018 1:50am Sep 28, 2018 1:50am
All this week, the Dow has been putting in consecutive lows, so we are definitely falling away from this double top, which for me until the price shows me otherwise, means that the crash has begun. When did the Dow Jones top out prior to the 2008/9 crash? October 11th, until which date US stocks were riding high and the only suggestion technically that they might start coming down was diversion on the 2 day up to weekly time frames. Now we have diversion on the S&P and double top on the Dow. This may amount to nothing, and there could be a lot more upside, so we'll have to see.
  • #186
  • Sep 28, 2018 3:55am Sep 28, 2018 3:55am
I think price action around the 76.4 level on this Dow retracement should provide the final "clue" as to whether the top is in or if there is further to go. I'd expect a very strong rejection around that level if the trend has now turned south.
  • #187
  • Sep 28, 2018 4:37am Sep 28, 2018 4:37am
Quoting tomase
I think price action around the 76.4 level on this Dow retracement should provide the final "clue" as to whether the top is in or if there is further to go. I'd expect a very strong rejection around that level if the trend has now turned south.
Yes, around about 26,520 or so should provide strong resistance if it gets there, which as you say, could well determine whether it goes higher or whether the start of the big Bear could be here.
  • #188
  • Sep 28, 2018 8:46am Sep 28, 2018 8:46am
Quoting cat
Gold is looking very strong to me, and we could see a move up towards 1,230 or so from today. With equities currently being pumped up as they are, this for me is a sign, no more than that right now, that equities may soon peak with very strong diversion now on the weekly S&P.
I think Gold is more correlated to AUDUSD for the time being, and USD's strength is not helping.
However, I think this is probably the soundest investment for the LT investor: https://www.forbes.com/sites/olivier.../#1b17437529bb
  • #189
  • Sep 28, 2018 8:55am Sep 28, 2018 8:55am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I think Gold is more correlated to AUDUSD for the time being, and USD's strength is not helping. However, I think this is probably the soundest investment for the LT investor: https://www.forbes.com/sites/olivier.../#1b17437529bb
With the price currently so low, I'd say it's the best LT investment there is.
  • #190
  • Sep 28, 2018 8:55am Sep 28, 2018 8:55am
Following this morning's pa on the Dow and now, almost 30 mins into the NY open, it looks as though a "flat" correction might be underway. So price could reach the 26560 area again before turning south. If it does get that far then I think a long hard drop will follow. Or it might just struggle to a nice round number - 26500 - before turning.
  • #191
  • Sep 28, 2018 9:16am Sep 28, 2018 9:16am
Quoting tomase
Following this morning's pa on the Dow and now, almost 30 mins into the NY open, it looks as though a "flat" correction might be underway. So price could reach the 26560 area again before turning south. If it does get that far then I think a long hard drop will follow. Or it might just struggle to a nice round number - 26500 - before turning.
I can't say now, it's all very much in the balance. All I know is that it has fallen away from its double top, and so we must wait and see whether it is going to attack it, or fall short and fall away. I agree with your level, 550-600 will be the big test if it gets back up there.
  • #192
  • Oct 2, 2018 8:35am Oct 2, 2018 8:35am
Looking as if this Dow double top area will hold the price again today. We'll find out soon.
  • #193
  • Oct 3, 2018 8:04am Oct 3, 2018 8:04am
Well, double top has gone. Dow looking really strong to push higher now with a lot of momentum behind it. However, the weekly tf is currentyl building a very nice looking diversion with my MACD ribbon, and this will improve as it goes higher, until of course, it goes so high that the diversion disappears, but 28,000 and I think it will still be in place. S&P also on weekly diversion as I noted earlier in the thread.
  • #194
  • Oct 3, 2018 2:45pm Oct 3, 2018 2:45pm
I think the final leg up on the Dow that I mentioned in post #181 may now be complete. But only this weeks candle will actually provide some indication as to whether a top is in.
  • #195
  • Oct 4, 2018 10:19am Oct 4, 2018 10:19am
Yes tomase, you may well be right. My last post had pretty much given up on the double top area, and Dow looked nothing but bullish, but here we are now, 370 pips down, which does show that the market is extremely uncomfortable up at this level, and as tomase says, US equities may well be putting in a top, and that rejection of 26,950 on the Dow was very severe indeed.

On this week's candle, I think a bearish shooting star which closes below last week's negative candle would be massive sell sign, from which Dow could drop at least 1000 pips very quickly.
  • #196
  • Oct 4, 2018 10:22am Oct 4, 2018 10:22am
Quoting cat
Yes tomase, you may well be right. My last post had pretty much given up on the double top area, and Dow looked nothing but bullish, but here we are now, 370 pips down, which does show that the market is extremely uncomfortable up at this level, and as tomase says, US equities may well be putting in a top, and that rejection of 26,950 on the Dow was very severe indeed.
I have a beautiful shooting star forming on Dow, down is the only way... at least to 26452-475 region as a minimum.
  • #197
  • Oct 4, 2018 10:27am Oct 4, 2018 10:27am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I have a beautiful shooting star forming on Dow, down is the only way... at least to 26452-475 region as a minimum.
Yep, I just amended my last post to include that. Yesterday's Dow shooting star was a beauty as well. I think we have the potential for some very big selling next week, with Dax dropping hard out of the pennant apex.
  • #198
  • Oct 4, 2018 11:09am Oct 4, 2018 11:09am
This trendline on the Dow - shown here on a 4HR - dates from the low on March 7th and has multiple touchpoints from above and below. It provided support in March and has contained all the highs on the way up and support again in this last "throwover". So it is a very significant marker. It's being touched again as I type this and once it is comprehensively broken - sometime between now and tomorrows NFP I would guess - there should, at some stage next week or the week after, be a last goodbye "kiss" from below before, as you say, the Dow falls several hundred pips.
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  • #199
  • Edited 10:50pm Oct 4, 2018 10:40pm | Edited 10:50pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I have a beautiful shooting star forming on Dow, down is the only way... at least to 26452-475 region as a minimum.
Pretty much produced a 4H hammer touching the 100MAs on Daily. It also touched the Daily 20sma, and closed above the 7sma on Daily.

It might try to push up again, but it should drop away I'm thinking with a lower high. Have to wait and see.
  • #200
  • Edited 3:19am Oct 5, 2018 1:39am | Edited 3:19am
Dax has been narrowing into the weekly pennant apex, and this is my projection, sometime next week, perhaps even today, for a significant breakdown to the south. How far it falls remains to be seen, and there is plenty of support, so the red arrow is merely directional and not an indication as yet as to how far Dax may fall. I may be wrong, but I'd say judging by the pa and the positioning of my moving averages, a breakdown to the south is the more likely scenario for me

Alternatively, there is still potential for more sideways movement lasting pretty much for the rest of the year, but ultimately, the further the price arrows into the pennant apex, the greater the likelihood of it breaking out.
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