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  • #1,502
  • Edited 1:13pm Sep 25, 2018 1:03pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} IMHO That is not correct Markets move in Swings, Thrusts etc more precisely you can name them by using the neutral word component a Wave has 2 Components : one Up , one Down a Cycle is made of at least 2 Waves of more or less equal Period (Time) and Amplitude (Price) That is the repetition of a Wave which generates a "Cycle" - no repetition , no Cycle
I am looking for the explanation and the context found in the source material……..
Here's a clue………..what does the source material say?

How do you know if your answer is correct or not if you didn't learn the rule by studying the source material? AMVA

If you didn't read about it in the source material… AMVA…….how do you know If you are applying something in the wrong/right "Context"…… AMVA……..

What is the "Rule" and why does this "Rule" exist…… AMVA….
According to the source material……..what does the source material say………… AMVA……………...
Your answers should be accompanied by the actual source of the information… AMVA…..

Otherwise you're just "guessing"( or assuming)… AMVA……..

What is the "Rule" and why does this "Rule" exist… AMVA…….


https://web.archive.org/web/20121229024027/http://www.cisco-futures.com/market_waves_and_tech_anal.html
  • #1,503
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:13pm Sep 25, 2018 1:13pm
Quoting mzvega
I am looking for the explanation and the context found in the source material…….. Here's a clue………..what does the source material say? How do you know if your answer is correct or not if you didn't learn the rule by studying the source material? If you didn't read about it in the source material……….how do you know If you are applying something in the wrong/right "Context"………….. What is the "Rule" and why does this "Rule" exist………. According to the source material……..what does the source material say………………………... Your answers should be accompanied...
Please post the rule from the source material.
  • #1,504
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:16pm Sep 25, 2018 1:16pm
It seems that on this thread some people are obsessed with "Rules" - naturally undefined

my description / definitions is not a "guess" but definitions of what is a Wave and what is a Cycle

if you have a better one do not hesitate to post a detailed explanation

as for "source material" it was written in plain english " Jim Hurst in his Cyclitec Course" - 1.500 pages
  • #1,505
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:22pm Sep 25, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} IMHO That is not correct Markets move in Swings, Thrusts etc more precisely you can name them by using the neutral word component a Wave has 2 Components : one Up , one Down a Cycle is made of at least 2 Waves of more or less equal Period (Time) and Amplitude (Price) That is the repetition of a Wave which generates a "Cycle" - no repetition , no Cycle Chart, courtesy of Jim Hurst in his Cyclitec Cycles Course {image}
We are not talking about "price waves"........we are talking about "Market Units" and "Balances"

Market Waves are NOT Cycles
Donald L. Jones
Copyright CISCO Futures March 25, 2005
A hope of many technical analysts is that markets have a cyclic component that can be used for predictive purposes. Belief in an underlying periodicity is implicit in moving average smoothing, since the moving average is expected to act as a filter. The same is true of oscillators, where two moving averages of different time frames are subtracted to find differences. The fact that oscillator differences often move smoothly and change fast in highly directional markets is taken as evidence that the resulting curves provide information that can be traded. An underlying but unspoken assumption of virtually all technical analysis is that market data is well conditioned (small errors in the data produce small errors in the result). In fact, as will be shown below, the fundamental assumption of essentially equidistant peaks in a set of market data is incorrect, and thus market data is poorly conditioned for most of technical analysis.

It is theoretically true (Fourier analysis) that several waves of varying amplitudes and periods can be combined to provide a display that looks like market flow (with rises, falls and periods of low amplitude). Unfortunately, it is also true that market flow can and does come from a complex, self-regulating process (aggregate decisions of a large number of traders). This process cannot be described by any known mathematical distribution. Specifically ruled out is the fourier process, the market is not (so far as anyone can tell) a combination of sine waves.

Many elements of normal life are cyclic; the 24 hour day, seasons, weather, ice ages and other natural phemonena. Some economic phenomena such as booms and busts are thought to follow some sort of wave, such as the Kondratieff 30 to 60 year wave. In markets, much has been made of the Elliott five wave up and three wave down proposition. While phemonena such a Elliott waves become apparent after the fact, proponents seem unable to agree on the present. Even if you could tell which leg of an Elliott wave you are in, that knowledge would be hard to use in day-to-day trading where your outlook is rarely more than just a few minutes or days.

Markets always display wave-like motion. Prices move up and down with some regularity, describing local highs and lows. This movement reflects the changes in the way the composite of all traders, their feedback, value the market. While clearer on longer term charts, the local highs and lows describe periods that vary from wave to wave. Prediction of the next high or low cannot be made in any reliable way. Incidentally, prediction is not a requirement of successful trading (see the section on the Market Unit).

The Market Unit

Because the source of market motion cannot be tied to any known distribution, a market surely cannot be described by a set of sine waves or helped in any real analytical sense by smoothing.

Some analysts describe market waves as cycles, imputing a regularity not supported by the data itself. Analyzing market waves to obtain any predictability is not simple and may well be impossible, due to wave irregularity. Some waves can be very short, comprising just a day or two from top to bottom, others may take twenty days to find a bottom. While market waves for predicting the future seem to be impossible to divine, it is possible to look to the past to study the obvious wave motion in past data, with the aim of better understanding markets. We show in figure 1 below how widely the SP market has varied through the years. Figure 1 shows that the wave ranges of the SP have been decreasing since 2002 and helps explain why it is harder to trade the SP profitably today, as compared to the past.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,506
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:22pm Sep 25, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting parisboy
It seems that on this thread some people are obsessed with "Rules" - naturally undefined my description / definitions is not a "guess" but definitions of what is a Wave and what is a Cycle if you have a better one do not hesitate to post a detailed explanation as for "source material" it was written in plain english " Jim Hurst in his Cyclitec Course" - 1.500 pages

More than anything friend is that this post is based on the theory of market auction and analisis, so I think it is appropriate to respect that rule, sure you can find more post that give foot to understand the cycles, the theories wolf and fibonacci, the material exposed here is a way to understand markets from a rational logic not from holism, which does not mean that it is right or wrong, but I understand that the great work behind this post is not worth destroying it with other theories, if we do not add we can not understand in a logical way what is really happening in the market..




Regards, Oscar
  • #1,507
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:33pm Sep 25, 2018 1:33pm
Quoting urusit
{quote} More than anything friend is that this post is based on the theory of market auction and analisis, so I think it is appropriate to respect that rule, sure you can find more post that give foot to understand the cycles, the theories wolf and fibonacci, the material exposed here is a way to understand markets from a rational logic not from holism, which does not mean that it is right or wrong, but I understand that the great work behind this post is not worth destroying it with other theories, if not add us and be able to understand in a logical...
Oscar

as far as I can remember I was quoting you - on this thread - : "

Quoting urusit
{quote} We begin by a simple examination of the structure of markets in general. Markets move in waves, from high to low and low to high etc., continuously. The time to complete a wave varies from wave to wave. One cycle might be 10 days and the next can be 30 days in a completely irregular manner. Likewise, the amplitude from top to bottom of a wave varies widely. For instance from April 7 to September 2003 for the SP there were 5 complete waves. The number of days per wave varied from 13 days to 28 days.

In your first sentence, You have used 5 Times the word Waves and 1 Time the word Cycle.

I do not think that answering your message and giving IMHOwhat is the correct definition of both terms and concepts I would "destroy" the great work(s) published on this thread

Regards
  • #1,508
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:35pm Sep 25, 2018 1:35pm
From Mediocristán to Extremistán
There are two types of uncertainty or two variants of chance. The first one could be called the utopian province of Mediocristan, where individual events do not contribute much individually, but only collectively. The supreme rule of Mediocristan can be formulated in these terms: "When the sample is large, no single element will change the total significantly." To illustrate, take the example of our calorie intake. Humans consume about eight hundred thousand calories a year. No particular day will be a large part of that amount.
Consider by comparison the net worth of the thousand people we randomly select at the exit of a football stadium. Let's add them to the richest person on the planet, for example Bill Gates. Let's suppose that his patrimony is of about 80 000 million dollars, being the capital of all the others a few million. This patrimony will represent 99.9% of the total wealth. That is the second variant of chance: Extremistan, where "inequalities are such that a single observation can disproportionately influence the total".
Let's look at the implications this has. Extremistan can produce Black Swans, and indeed it does, as in the case of rare events that have influenced colossally in history. But with chance in the style of Mediocristan, it is not possible to find the surprise of a Black Swan, the surprise that a single event can dominate a phenomenon.
What in Mediocristan can be learned from the data increases very rapidly as information accumulates. However, in Extremistán knowledge grows very slowly and erratically with the accumulation of data -some of them extreme-, possibly at an unknown rate.
Nicholas Taleb, the black swan
  • #1,509
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:39pm Sep 25, 2018 1:39pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Oscar as far as I can remember I was quoting you - on this thread - : " Quoting urusit {quote} We begin by a simple examination of the structure of markets in general. Markets move in waves, from high to low and low to high etc., continuously. The time to complete a wave varies from wave to wave. One cycle might be 10 days and the next can be 30 days in a completely irregular manner. Likewise, the amplitude from top to bottom of a wave varies widely. For instance...
Again, we are talking about MARKET UNITS..............you left out the "Context" of the post....................
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,510
  • Sep 25, 2018 1:50pm Sep 25, 2018 1:50pm
Quoting mzvega
I am not interested in a simple "description"……..the "description" does not explain the "context" in which it is used. What is the "Rule" and why does this "Rule" exist……….
What is the rule of a balancing market?
  • #1,512
  • Sep 25, 2018 3:28pm Sep 25, 2018 3:28pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} As you can see the SP500 is trending Up since march 2009 almost without a pause Since then almost ALL Price Action fluctuates within the Envelope 256 (brown) whose Amplitude is 312.5 points - this can be considered as the relevant "Market Unit " (I would rather say Gann Octave) for the corresponding period Shorter term fluctuations can be underlined by using sub-harmonics of 312.5 - 156,25 or 78.125 Then we can have a good approximation of the "Market Structure" but a key point to understand the "Market Structure" is to take into account...
Being that "Price Data" (Price Action as you call it) is the raw material for "technical Analysis" and this thread deals in "Quantitative Analysis"
We don't give a shit about a "price action" (series of prices)

Because Most technical analysis works off an underlying, belief that the market is "day to day" serial correlated therefore, you should be able use previous days prices (candlestick) to "predict" the current day's prices. There are many TA strategies, however they all subscribe to and have the same notion that price changes in period A have something to tell traders about price changes in period B......and period B have something to tell traders about price changes in period C and so on and so on along a series of prices............

It's not rocket science it's simple Math.....................
I can give you empirical proof .........NO SUCH CORRELATION EXISTS.....................

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post10638757
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10638051

There is little evidence when tested that price changes in period A have something to tell traders about price changes in period B, there is only evidence to the contrary. That should make someone question the validity of their trading methodology (TA). The data doesn't support the methodology......

No one here is trading "price action"...........................
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,513
  • Sep 25, 2018 3:41pm Sep 25, 2018 3:41pm
Quoting mzvega
What is the "Rule" regarding "Balances and why?................. will someone please provide the proper "Context".
AMVT is about locating fair value and profiting from a change in this value, this (value) can only be found in a balanced market. This means that a trader must always begin analysis from a balanced market. References below.

"A market in bracketing condition permits the location of value, an item of particular importance to the day trader" - VBPT pg. 63

"Markets do not trend up, then turn on a dime and begin a trend down. An upward-trending market auctions higher, balances, then either continues up or begins to auction downward. Similarly, a down trend ends in a bracketed market, then either continues down or begins a trend to the up side. In a bracket, both the other timeframe buyer and seller become responsive parties. As price nears the top of the perceived bracket, the seller responds and auctions price downward through the bracket or equilibrium range. In turn, the responsive buyer enters and rotates price back to the upside. This bracketing process indicates that the market is in balance and waiting for more information." - MOM pg.55

Auction Market Value Analytics(tm) Report
Copyright CISCO 2007
Auction Market Value Analytics (tm)


The key, obviously, is to track value. Value, strictly defined, is constant only in balanced markets. (Imagine a strongly trending market: value is constantly changing and hence is not defined in a measurable way.)

Value Analytics(tm) is the quantification of profile and market condition variables, providing the data for finding value The multi-day structure of Value Analytics is based on the discovery that a single day's data is inadequate to define the development of a balanced market condition. The minimum time is of the order of three days.

The first step for the serious trader is to understand value. In auction markets, value is an experimental measure: it is what the majority of traders think it is at that point in time. They vote by trading. Often overlooked in profile literature is the fact that value can generally only be found for a market in balance. Balance can be defined only in conjunction with a time frame: a 3 day balance, a 9 day balance, etc. Further, a market can be in a 10 day balance while trending in the 4 day time frame. Hence the beginning of market analysis must be an understanding of the market's condition (balance or imbalance).
  • #1,514
  • Sep 25, 2018 4:36pm Sep 25, 2018 4:36pm
Quoting sinqua
{quote} AMVT is about locating fair value and profiting from a change in this value, this (value) can only be found in a balanced market. This means that a trader must always begin analysis from a balanced market. References below. "A market in bracketing condition permits the location of value, an item of particular importance to the day trader" - VBPT pg. 63 "Markets do not trend up, then turn on a dime and begin a trend down. An upward-trending market auctions higher, balances, then either continues up or begins to auction downward. Similarly,...
Quoting sinqua
AMVT is about locating fair value ……..
and how is that accomplished?

Quoting sinqua
The key, obviously, is to track value….
And how is that accomplished?
Quoting sinqua
The multi-day structure of Value Analytics is based on the discovery that a single day's data is inadequate to define the development of a balanced market condition. The minimum time is of the order of three days…..
why is that? Why not one or two?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,515
  • Sep 25, 2018 5:51pm Sep 25, 2018 5:51pm
Quoting mzvega
and how is that accomplished?
Through an Overlay Demand Curve

Quote
And how is that accomplished?

Using reference points, beginning with the fairest price i.e POC

Quote
why is that? Why not one or two?

Markets lack day to day serial correlation, the experiment in VBPT pg. 21 Table 1-5 showed a minimum of 3 days is required for correlation
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  • #1,516
  • Oct 1, 2018 3:44am Oct 1, 2018 3:44am
Hello, do you know if the indicator exists for MT5, or you already know some method to extract the EOD, from an api?



regards
  • #1,517
  • Oct 1, 2018 4:55am Oct 1, 2018 4:55am
Quoting urusit
Hello, do you know if the indicator exists for MT5, or you already know some method to extract the EOD, from an api? regards
Hello urusit,

as far as i know there's no mt5 composite profile indicator written by Bandung.

Online you can find some api for forex but you get timeseries data.
  • #1,518
  • Nov 7, 2018 9:54pm Nov 7, 2018 9:54pm
Good morning people. Herewith my distribution list. Please let me know if yours differ.
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  • #1,519
  • Nov 8, 2018 4:10am Nov 8, 2018 4:10am
Thanks, we would also like an analysis of some pair, I will also publish mine with analysis.

Regards
  • #1,520
  • Nov 8, 2018 4:20am Nov 8, 2018 4:20am
Hi everybody,

I am new to this forum. kindly share all the concepts related to AMVT. My first doubt is how to calculate upper limit,lower limit, upper octant & lower octant. please explain clearly
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