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Trading Made Simple

  • #90,861
  • Sep 18, 2018 5:53pm Sep 18, 2018 5:53pm
Quoting eelfranz
Honestly be careful trading... the markets are going to be like this... {image}

With ongoing trade war and Brexit talks, stop trading those lower timeframes H1, M30, M15 and M5 is the right decision. Every hour 24 times a day is something happening which we do not read in FF calendar.

Big E being honest,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E post 641.png Size: 514 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #90,862
  • Sep 18, 2018 6:03pm Sep 18, 2018 6:03pm
USDCAD Week 19 Sep 19 4H swing trading

Today is sell bias.
Weekly is ranging but to the downside.
Daily is bearish, with that D1 Pop Gun and BEOB close bar/candle.

Use %Risk and do your trade Position Size.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 38 Sep 19 H4 sell bias.png Size: 46 KB


Trade Well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #90,863
  • Sep 18, 2018 6:32pm Sep 18, 2018 6:32pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Jmn I agree that Demo trading is great but you first need to established the correct settings for your strategy. Lazy traders don't want to put the hard yards in but all you need is a spread sheet and a quiet weekend. Simply start from January 2nd using a TDI that doesn't repaint and plot every possible setup for this year you see on ALL time frames you would like to trade. Come Monday morning you will know whether this system is worth the trouble. Trade size is irrelevant if you can't nail down a good profitability over a 12 month period....
What about overfitting?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #90,864
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:33pm Sep 18, 2018 7:33pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} What do you think of a profit factor of 3.7 with a win rate between 60% and 65% and maximal drawdown of 5%?
I would call him/her a “Diamond Trader” who has found their “Trading Edge” over the market.
To get those results with only a 5% draw back would be a remarkable achievement.
PM me if you want to tease me some more.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #90,865
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:56pm Sep 18, 2018 7:56pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} What about overfitting?
Yes, now you have hit on to a area where I spend most of my hours working with Forex.
You need to start with a in-sample time frame say 2017-2018 where there is at least 100 setups sighted.
If results look promising, you then need to test around 20 pairs to find which pairs show profitability. But you may find you only have around 12 pairs that would suit TMS trading.
Then we need to more to the next stage of testing these 12 pairs on out-sample time frame. Here I would maybe select 2013-2015 time period to see if the results show similar profitability. The end result may show 8-9 pairs that MAY be profitable trading with TMS. Many pairs will be not worth trading.
This process takes me a week at least even using a strategy tester but it will save you hundreds of wasted hours and dollars down the drain.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #90,866
  • Sep 18, 2018 11:58pm Sep 18, 2018 11:58pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} What do you think of a profit factor of 3.7 with a win rate between 60% and 65% and maximal drawdown of 5%?
Hi Emmanuel7788 ,
Sorry but I didn't understood your point . Someone able to reach such a level of trading (profit factor = 3.7 , win rate = 60% to 65% and drawdown max = 5%) is not far from reaching the graal or am I completely wrong ?
What is the purpose of your sentence ?
  • #90,867
  • Sep 19, 2018 1:32am Sep 19, 2018 1:32am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} @lddd, Very good question many have asked before in the last 7 years. You are not alone. Many are in the same situation but are shy to post and ask questions. They suffer in silence and will pay the higher price in trading this brutal retail spot forex market. We can make some money but do not expect making wheel barrows of pips/money. This is not a get rich quick type of business. It takes years to acquire the knowledge and experience to be able to trade consistently and that is really one of the keys to making money in the markets. Big...


would have to disagree with your Big E quote "Starting out you should be 60-65% successful."

sorry, but statistically i am pretty sure very few are that successful when starting out with this method, and the ones that are have been trading several years already....

That sentence was just marketing talk imo to push the supposid "simpleness" of the system..........

The problem with Big E's posts is that in that his attempt to simplify the method [and attract the masses who like something easy and simple which will make them $$$] ...he is very vague in his posts, to the extent ...that if you don't have a good amount of prior trading experience you're not going to get anywhere from reading the thread without assistance from those that do.
  • #90,868
  • Sep 19, 2018 2:09am Sep 19, 2018 2:09am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Yes, now you have hit on to a area where I spend most of my hours working with Forex. You need to start with a in-sample time frame say 2017-2018 where there is at least 100 setups sighted. If results look promising, you then need to test around 20 pairs to find which pairs show profitability. But you may find you only have around 12 pairs that would suit TMS trading. Then we need to more to the next stage of testing these 12 pairs on out-sample time frame. Here I would maybe select 2013-2015 time period to see if the results show similar...
Well done for the job done. So what are the pairs that suit TMS?
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #90,869
  • Sep 19, 2018 2:17am Sep 19, 2018 2:17am
kain775 -- I would have to disagree -- but with your statement.

I don't have the reference, but I think it has been shown elsewhere that (to a rough approximation) you need a win rate of around 0.60 in order to be profitable. Of course, that is a very general statement and there are strategies and approaches that are exceptions to that rule of thumb.

The instructions left within Big E's posts couldn't be more simple or clear. The problem is that 95% of traders (both new and experienced) are incapable of following instructions. It's human nature and a flaw (especially when it comes to reproducing a trading system). Read some of the posts from people who whine or complain -- it's so obvious they make up their own rules and then can't figure out why their trades perform poorly.

I'm new to this thread and was blown away by the number of posts and the fact it has been kept alive for many years by people who appreciated and valued what Big E left behind. And it's the same freaking system he described in post #1 over 7 years ago!!! Can you point to another blog or thread that has been carried along this long after someone has died? No way. Yet -- that fact clearly doesn't register with you. In your mind it can't possibly be simple and, therefore, it must be marketing hype. Unfortunately, you are in the majority and will never get it -- anything that follows the KISS principle is incomprehensible.

A very experienced and wise trading acquaintance of mine often has to remind me: "Sometimes we fall in love with the complexities and justify their necessity". Big E certainly appreciated that complexity frequently leads people down an empty rabbit hole -- and though he tried to warn us, most still prefer to go down the rabbit hole.
  • #90,870
  • Sep 19, 2018 3:47am Sep 19, 2018 3:47am
Quoting robots4me
kain775 -- I would have to disagree -- but with your statement. I don't have the reference, but I think it has been shown elsewhere that (to a rough approximation) you need a win rate of around 0.60 in order to be profitable. Of course, that is a very general statement and there are strategies and approaches that are exceptions to that rule of thumb. The instructions left within Big E's posts couldn't be more simple or clear. The problem is that 95% of traders (both new and experienced) are incapable of following instructions. It's human nature...
Hi Rotots4me

Win rate is the least important factor in determining profitability of a system. Even a 45% win rate is enough for some strategy's that use break even stops within a scalping system. The real factor here is any trader can find a chart that fits their strategy design and therefore can make that strategy look highly profitable all the time. I don't believe Big E ever posted any long term profitability results to back up his statements.
Therefore I feel its unfair to label 95% of traders incapable of following just a few simple rules by Big E himself. I am sure if given a cake box recipe, 80% of traders here could make a decent chocolate cake very well.

Why is it here that so many fail with TMS's Recipe?.

Can I suggest to you the cake box recipe needs some additional ingredients before it can be delicious?.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #90,871
  • Sep 19, 2018 4:11am Sep 19, 2018 4:11am
Hello RickM,

I agree -- other factors can determine profitability. However, in order to have a discussion someone has to begin by placing a stake in the sand. The win ratio of 0.60 isn't my invention and I did mention there are other approaches that are profitable. Also, if Big E figured that 0.60 was a good number to initially shoot for then that's good enough for me. We could refer to other metrics and stats, but then that complicates the issue. I think most people grasp what win ratio means, so it's a good reference point. Perhaps that's why Big E chose to make that statement. It was all in the spirit of keeping things simple.

Regarding the cake recipe -- sorry, I don't think 80% of traders would follow it. It's not that they couldn't but, rather, they wouldn't. It's a human nature thing. On one hand, we want to be profitable. But, on the other, we need to make it our own and feel we are smart enough to do this without someone holding our hand. So, I'll fiddle a little with the ingredients and assume the adjustments won't do any harm and then I can take credit and call it "my" cake recipe. If you don't believe me, read some of the silly posts here.

Quote
Can I suggest to you the cake box recipe needs some additional ingredients before it can be delicious?.
Your last sentence sort of makes the point -- you feel that in order to make it delicious you'll need to include some additional ingredients. My point is "no -- you don't need additional ingredients". The original recipe can work just fine as long as you follow the instructions.
  • #90,872
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:19am Sep 19, 2018 5:19am
Quoting ejiexe
{quote} Well done for the job done. So what are the pairs that suit TMS?
Hi Ejiexe

After performing this task 18 months ago, I discovered a more important factor that had more bearing over the profitability of TMS that deciding just what pair to trade. I thought it was going to be just a simple test of which pair is good or bad to trade. I also thought it was going to prove one time frame is far better than the other in regard to profitability. The answer was far more complex than that because it proved to me I needed to know the market type design first before I looked to take any trade. Emmanuel talks about this factor often and has posted the bottom chart before.
My results clearly indicated I need to trading in markets that were Bear Normal, Bear volatile, Bull Normal, Bull volatile. Trading in these market types was the biggest factor in profitability, not which pair.
However to get to your question, my results under my interpretation of Big E's rules plus trading in the correct market type showed some profitability for me on

EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, GBPAUD, GBPCAD

Without the stochastic indicator, all were loser's.
Please DYOR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market type.png Size: 772 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #90,873
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:24am Sep 19, 2018 5:24am
Quoting robots4me
kain775 -- I would have to disagree -- but with your statement. I don't have the reference, but I think it has been shown elsewhere that (to a rough approximation) you need a win rate of around 0.60 in order to be profitable. Of course, that is a very general statement and there are strategies and approaches that are exceptions to that rule of thumb. The instructions left within Big E's posts couldn't be more simple or clear. The problem is that 95% of traders (both new and experienced) are incapable of following instructions. It's human nature...

are you new to trading?

If so are you profitable trading this method?

Even our very own tekkies took like a year or two before he was profitable, and he spends more time reading Big E posts than mormons do reading the bible...

sorry but with what Big E has written, getting 65% constantly from the getgo and being profitable is not so "simple" ..unless you are an experienced trader
  • #90,874
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:25am Sep 19, 2018 5:25am
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDCAD Week 19 Sep 19 4H swing trading Today is sell bias. Weekly is ranging but to the downside. Daily is bearish, with that D1 Pop Gun and BEOB close bar/candle. Use %Risk and do your trade Position Size. {image} Trade Well.

USDCAD Sep 19 update:

This trade setup going well but as PA approaches RN 1.2950, be prepared for some reaction.
There is CONFLUENCE of 50EMA on Weekly and 200EMA on Daily with the RN 1.2950.

Question is how do you manage this trade(s)?

Some traders manage on H4 using the HA candle, while some traders manage using trailing previous bar high.

Anyone manage using the old fashion way using the PAC High-Low?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 38 Sep 19 H4 update D1 200EMA 12950.png Size: 43 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #90,875
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:45am Sep 19, 2018 5:45am
Quoting bodal
{quote} Hi Emmanuel7788 , Sorry but I didn't understood your point . Someone able to reach such a level of trading (profit factor = 3.7 , win rate = 60% to 65% and drawdown max = 5%) is not far from reaching the graal or am I completely wrong ? What is the purpose of your sentence ?

??? what is graal?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #90,876
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:50am Sep 19, 2018 5:50am
Quoting robots4me
Hello RickM, I agree -- other factors can determine profitability. However, in order to have a discussion someone has to begin by placing a stake in the sand. The win ratio of 0.60 isn't my invention and I did mention there are other approaches that are profitable. Also, if Big E figured that 0.60 was a good number to initially shoot for then that's good enough for me. We could refer to other metrics and stats, but then that complicates the issue. I think most people grasp what win ratio means, so it's a good reference point. Perhaps that's why...
I see your point, but before you can claim the original recipe is the the winner of the great British bake off, we need just one experienced trader to provide a full years results to proof the profitability of Big E's rules. I would love his recipe to be the winner but there is just no proof and I see many traders losing their hard earned wages on TMS.

I do hope TMS strategy works for you but I would ask you to review the big list of posters on TMS forum from August last year and compare that list to the primary posters here right now.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #90,877
  • Sep 19, 2018 6:02am Sep 19, 2018 6:02am
Quoting kain775
{quote} would have to disagree with your Big E quote "Starting out you should be 60-65% successful." sorry, but statistically i am pretty sure very few are that successful when starting out with this method, and the ones that are have been trading several years already.... That sentence was just marketing talk imo to push the supposid "simpleness" of the system.......... The problem with Big E's posts is that in that his attempt to simplify the method [and attract the masses who like something easy and simple which will make them $$$] ...he is very...

those words "Starting out you should be 60-65% successful. Within 1 to two months you should be 70-80% successful.. IF... you follow the simple rules and simple exits... 3-6 months... 85% successful. Don't complicate it... keep it simple. Buy your wheel barrow.."
are PFA.
but I know some traders have managed to achieve the win rate 60% to 65% during the past 7 years and they spend many years learning and lots of practice, practice, practice in live market. Reading all of Big E's 1485 posts here in FF is not enough to make one into a successful and profitable trader. .

Trading Made Simple 5-Method is not a one system fits all type of trading solution.

Learn how Big E started in 2008 and how he developed himself from 2008 till 2011.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #90,878
  • Edited 7:27am Sep 19, 2018 6:33am | Edited 7:27am
Quoting RickM
{quote} I would call him/her a “Diamond Trader” who has found their “Trading Edge” over the market. To get those results with only a 5% draw back would be a remarkable achievement. PM me if you want to tease me some more.
Quoting kain775
{quote} are you new to trading? If so are you profitable trading this method? Even our very own tekkies took like a year or two before he was profitable, and he spends more time reading Big E posts than mormons do reading the bible... sorry but with what Big E has written, getting 65% constantly from the getgo and being profitable is not so "simple" ..unless you are an experienced trader
Quoting robots4me
Hello RickM, I agree -- other factors can determine profitability. However, in order to have a discussion someone has to begin by placing a stake in the sand. The win ratio of 0.60 isn't my invention and I did mention there are other approaches that are profitable. Also, if Big E figured that 0.60 was a good number to initially shoot for then that's good enough for me. We could refer to other metrics and stats, but then that complicates the issue. I think most people grasp what win ratio means, so it's a good reference point. Perhaps that's why...
-------------
Kain has nailed it:
"sorry but with what Big E has written, getting 65% constantly from the getgo and being profitable is not so "simple" ..unless you are an experienced trader"

#495...................... Starting out you should be 60-65% successful.
BigE mention "BASIC" 22 times in various sentence. He referred members to go and learn Forex Basic over at Baby Pips.
Can only make the assumption that when BigE wrote that post he had in mind that traders:
- Study at Baby Pips.
- Been trading for a while, at least a year or two. (How long will it take to thoroughly understand / study / practise all the material at BabyPips?)
- Backtested his chart's
- Did not add other "stuff" to the method.
- Fine tuned it.
- Disciplined enough to follow the rules.
---
What happens in reality. Members read a few post's, thinking that every TDI crossover is a valid trade signal. They read "Starting out you should be 60-65% successful", Mind and body scream out: "Found the holy grail!!!!!!!" Jump in with everything they got and trade every cross. Thiere butt get's handed back to them on a silver platter. Now all of a sudden the member becomes a troll. TMS gets bad mouthed left, right and center.

Members alway want proof. Well you got the original recipe. Follow the steps, make the cake, bake the cake. Eat the cake.
The proof of the pudding (cake) is in the eating.

Took almost 2 1/2 years to apply the "steps" correctly, am baking the cake now. Can smell the cake already. Would say about one more year before I can eat the cake.
  • #90,879
  • Sep 19, 2018 8:53am Sep 19, 2018 8:53am
Quoting RickM
I see your point, but before you can claim the original recipe is the the winner of the great British bake off, we need just one experienced trader to provide a full years results to proof the profitability of Big E's rules.
I never said the original recipe was the Holy Grail or winner of the great British bake-off. Besides observing people resist following instructions (which is human nature and ingrained in all of us), a very painful part of attempting to participate in a forum is having words put into your mouth. I'm new to TMS, I want to learn more and I've done a fair amount of real trading with it to see its potential. I really admire the handful of members who patiently and painstaking and respectfully keep reminding all who will listen of Big E's recommendations.

Personally -- I get tired listening to contrarians. Life is too short...
  • #90,880
  • Sep 19, 2018 9:15am Sep 19, 2018 9:15am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} I never said the original recipe was the Holy Grail or winner of the great British bake-off. Besides observing people resist following instructions (which is human nature and ingrained in all of us), a very painful part of attempting to participate in a forum is having words put into your mouth. I'm new to TMS, I want to learn more and I've done a fair amount of real trading with it to see its potential. I really admire the handful of members who patiently and painstaking and respectfully keep reminding all who will listen of Big E's recommendations....
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