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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #141
  • Sep 14, 2018 1:20pm Sep 14, 2018 1:20pm
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} Bloomberg/Trump gave it a severe hammering but it came back off the bottom Prior to this hit new high on the daily chart and today/s movement is still less than the average daily range. I think it is still resilient. But whereas the institutions react within seconds to news, and they own most of the shares, it will be interesting to see what the mass of private investors and other people slow to respond will do to it next week It is all about risk On v risk Off
The Dow could well travel higher if this latest move down turns out to be just another pull back. I'm looking at the chart from an EW perspective and my reading of all that chop/range movement last week was that it looked like and was the typical pa of a fourth wave (which is a nightmare to try and trade). So once the move up which began on Sept 11th, broke the Aug 29th high, I reasoned that this was the final fifth wave higher and I can count 5 subwaves up on the 4HR ending in the final 5 of 5 around 8.30am UK today. I can also see very obvious divergence on the 4HR which also indicates to me a final wave. So there should at least be a deep pullback from here before a continuation higher or a change in the trend. I could be totally wrong of course - but that's my reading of it (for now...!)
  • #142
  • Sep 14, 2018 4:31pm Sep 14, 2018 4:31pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} The Dow could well travel higher if this latest move down turns out to be just another pull back. I'm looking at the chart from an EW perspective and my reading of all that chop/range movement last week was that it looked like and was the typical pa of a fourth wave (which is a nightmare to try and trade). So once the move up which began on Sept 11th, broke the Aug 29th high, I reasoned that this was the final fifth wave higher and I can count 5 subwaves up on the 4HR ending in the final 5 of 5 around 8.30am UK today. I can also see very...
Elliott Wave analysis is very dependent on the time frame. I'd say in context of D1 we are in w5 up since early July. In context of H1, Wave 3 up since Tuesday evening and H4 I would say it's a wave 4 (and yes they are horrible and can be long and choppy) since the start of September, and I'm thinking it will go higher soon with whatever oscillator eg MACD. awesome etc diverging with lower peaks. But not many EW pundits agree and see the same picture in this kind of analysis!
  • #143
  • Sep 15, 2018 9:23am Sep 15, 2018 9:23am
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} Elliott Wave analysis is very dependent on the time frame. I'd say in context of D1 we are in w5 up since early July. In context of H1, Wave 3 up since Tuesday evening and H4 I would say it's a wave 4 (and yes they are horrible and can be long and choppy) since the start of September, and I'm thinking it will go higher soon with whatever oscillator eg MACD. awesome etc diverging with lower peaks. But not many EW pundits agree and see the same picture in this kind of analysis!
I don't use Elliot Wave so won't comment on that, but the weekly tf is looking like the Dow will move higher to make new highs, perhaps 28,000 by the end of this year. Having said that, I opened this thread based on what I was seeing on smaller time frames, most notably the two day, and so far at least, the price is being held by the levels I posted above, so until 400 or so breaks conclusively, which is more or less where that trendline from April is coming through, there is still the possibility of it falling quite a long way. Once we get above the trend line, I don't think the price will double top, but keep on going. I said 28,000 perhaps by the end of the year, which is a big ask, but, once we are clear of this resistance, there is likely to be a lot of buying which will accelerate the upward movement, hopefully, to create what I have coined, as I have never seen anyone else use the term, a 'death throe ' move, usually an aggressive bout of buying or selling, far more frenzied than recent price movement, which normally leaves a very long, overextended candle. When this happens, everyone is screaming buy buy buy, when in fact, it is the end, or close to it of the move. We saw it with Bitcoin, and it is one of the first things I look out for in my trading as a place either to exit, or think about counter trading. If we get it with the Dow and S&P, and we have a classic MACD diversion pattern on the weekly tf, then that could well be the top. Just something to watch out for should equities push higher.
  • #144
  • Sep 17, 2018 10:17am Sep 17, 2018 10:17am
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} Elliott Wave analysis is very dependent on the time frame. I'd say in context of D1 we are in w5 up since early July. In context of H1, Wave 3 up since Tuesday evening and H4 I would say it's a wave 4 (and yes they are horrible and can be long and choppy) since the start of September, and I'm thinking it will go higher soon with whatever oscillator eg MACD. awesome etc diverging with lower peaks. But not many EW pundits agree and see the same picture in this kind of analysis!
That's why I like to use EW. Because even though you can be wildly wrong in the bigger picture, if you correctly identify a 5 up (or down) in the intermediate or near term then there is a very high probability of an ABC correction in that time frame. That's why I mentioned the 5 of 5 (on a D1 time frame) last Friday. Time will tell whether it plays out. Anyway here is my wave count on a 15M from Sept 12. I hope I don't have to swallow my reading of it!
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  • #145
  • Sep 17, 2018 10:44am Sep 17, 2018 10:44am
Quoting tomase
{quote} That's why I like to use EW. Because even though you can be wildly wrong in the bigger picture, if you correctly identify a 5 up (or down) in the intermediate or near term then there is a very high probability of an ABC correction in that time frame. That's why I mentioned the 5 of 5 (on a D1 time frame) last Friday. Time will tell whether it plays out. Anyway here is my wave count on a 15M from Sept 12. I hope I don't have to swallow my reading of it! {image}
Thanks tomase, wish I could comment but it's gobbledygook to me. Hopefully someone else will be able to offer feedback.

Dow still pretty ugly and still being capped by this resistance for now and Dax grinding higher, though not today. The H1 100sma looked like the support level for Dax early on, and it held, whilst today's CP, which I have at 12,112, though broken briefly this morning, seems to be the level to bail out of longs. As for the fib resistance, the 38.2% taken from the 28th Aug high is the one capping the price at the moment, that's if you take any notice of fib in your trading.

Where next? There is support coming in now, such as the H1 200sma and 100sma having curled round beneath the price, so it should rise further ( Dax ), but I wouldn't put any money on it right now that's for sure.
  • #146
  • Edited 12:50pm Sep 17, 2018 11:21am | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Thanks tomase, wish I could comment but it's gobbledygook to me. Hopefully someone else will be able to offer feedback. Dow still pretty ugly and still being capped by this resistance for now and Dax grinding higher, though not today. The H1 100sma looked like the support level for Dax early on, and it held, whilst today's CP, which I have at 12,112, though broken briefly this morning, seems to be the level to bail out of longs. As for the fib resistance, the 38.2% taken from the 28th Aug high is the one capping the price at the moment,...
I think EW is probably gobbledygook to most people and after the sort of pa that played out the week before last, I'm not surprised. But when you can identify a clear wave structure and combine it with Fibonacci and sometimes trendlines, it enables very precise entries and tight stops. That's another reason I like to use it. As a side note, if this particular trade does pan out and follow EW "rules" whereby wave A down (156 pips) is equidistant to wave B to C, then C should terminate in the 26020 area which is almost bang on the 1HR 200ema.
  • #147
  • Sep 18, 2018 1:15am Sep 18, 2018 1:15am
Quoting tomase
{quote} I think EW is probably gobbledygook to most people and after the sort of pa that played out the week before last, I'm not surprised. But when you can identify a clear wave structure and combine it with Fibonacci and sometimes trendlines, it enables very precise entries and tight stops. That's another reason I like to use it. As a side note, if this particular trade does pan out and follow EW "rules" whereby wave A down (156 pips) is equidistant to wave B to C, then C should terminate in the 26020 area which is almost bang on the 1HR 200ema....
Yes, that's always the key, a combination of signals never just the one. 200 should top it today on Dow if it gets back up that high.
  • #148
  • Edited 4:48am Sep 18, 2018 4:29am | Edited 4:48am
Sorry gentlemen, but I really don't see any incentive to go short for the moment, and that's only the daily chart, the weekly is even less ripe...
I learned the hard way that, irrespective of the timeframe you choose to trade, if the higher timeframes are not in agreement with you, it is an uphill battle.

Trade safe
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  • #149
  • Sep 18, 2018 5:29am Sep 18, 2018 5:29am
Quoting darko2010
Sorry gentlemen, but I really don't see any incentive to go short for the moment, and that's only the daily chart, the weekly is even less ripe... I learned the hard way that, irrespective of the timeframe you choose to trade, if the higher timeframes are not in agreement with you, it is an uphill battle. Trade safe {image}
I think you may have slightly misread the last few posts. No one is suggesting the dominant trend is anything but up. But when a pullback pattern reveals itself (for me it's an EW corrective pattern) then the (temporary) momentum is counter trend. That played out over last Friday and yesterday, but is now over by the look of today's pa. So the dominant trend is rejoined and it would be unwise to trade against it. The Dow (and the Dax) have deep pullbacks from the dominant trend and present these counter trend trading opportunities quite regularly - but of course they're on smaller timeframes than the daily.
  • #150
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:02am Sep 18, 2018 7:02am
Quoting tomase
{quote} I think you may have slightly misread the last few posts. No one is suggesting the dominant trend is anything but up. But when a pullback pattern reveals itself (for me it's an EW corrective pattern) then the (temporary) momentum is counter trend. That played out over last Friday and yesterday, but is now over by the look of today's pa. So the dominant trend is rejoined and it would be unwise to trade against it. The Dow (and the Dax) have deep pullbacks from the dominant trend and present these counter trend trading opportunities quite...
Thanks Tomase, that clarifies your previous posts.
  • #151
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:29am Sep 18, 2018 7:29am
Quoting darko2010
Sorry gentlemen, but I really don't see any incentive to go short for the moment, and that's only the daily chart, the weekly is even less ripe... I learned the hard way that, irrespective of the timeframe you choose to trade, if the higher timeframes are not in agreement with you, it is an uphill battle. Trade safe {image}
Remember darko, no one, least not me, is calling for anyone to go short, that is up to each individual take on things. What i hope we are doing on this thread is. or what I want to do, is to plot the big one, because I believe that a major market crash is coming, probably not this year, but next or perhaps 2020. Having said that, the Dow, not the S&P, but the Dow, still has to get back up to its Jan high, and it is at the level, right now, from which I believe it will break out to new highs, or fail and drop away significantly, which for me would signify that the build up towards a full 50% or higher market crash could well be underway, just as it was in mid 2007 when everyone was super bullish on stocks. The S&P has pushed higher, but it is forming a very strong looking diversion pattern with my MACD as I posted above, and so, I will be selling the Dow whenever I get the right signal on the smaller tfs, and because of where we are with the price, holding until I get knocked out, hopefully at no greater loss that BE. I continue trading the Dax intra-day as I always do.

BTW, anyone trading the S&P, watch 2,900-910, as it's looking like a very strong resistance level to me, which could send it back down to the H4 200ema, so 3-400 pips or more.
  • #152
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:38am Sep 18, 2018 7:38am
Quoting cat
{quote} Remember darko, no one, least not me, is calling for anyone to go short, that is up to each individual take on things. What i hope we are doing on this thread is. or what I want to do, is to plot the big one, because I believe that a major market crash is coming, probably not this year, but next or perhaps 2020. Having said that, the Dow, not the S&P, but the Dow, still has to get back up to its Jan high, and it is at the level, right now, from which I believe it will break out to new highs, or fail and drop away significantly, which for...
Crystal clear Cat, I understand how you trade which is different from how I approach it but I understand it.
I am exhausted from trading small TFs, that probably explains my perspective and why I am moving towards daily signals and above. I guess ageing got to me
  • #153
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:47am Sep 18, 2018 7:47am
I was just having a chuckle at this...definitely one former UK Chancellor who you will not find in the Forbes top 100 investors of all time list !
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  • #154
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:50am Sep 18, 2018 7:50am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Crystal clear Cat, I understand how you trade which is different from how I approach it but I understand it. I am exhausted from trading small TFs, that probably explains my perspective and why I am moving towards daily signals and above. I guess ageing got to me
Keeps me young!
  • #155
  • Sep 18, 2018 7:52am Sep 18, 2018 7:52am
Quoting cat
I was just having a chuckle at this...definitely one former UK Chancellor who you will not find in the Forbes top 100 investors of all time list ! {image}
He probably was advised by Goldman Sachs who was on the other side of the trade. Typical...
  • #156
  • Sep 18, 2018 8:03am Sep 18, 2018 8:03am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} He probably was advised by Goldman Sachs who was on the other side of the trade. Typical...
Either that or his mother!
  • #157
  • Sep 18, 2018 8:13am Sep 18, 2018 8:13am
Quoting cat
{quote} Either that or his mother!
Can anyone remember when Trump first initiated the trade war with China?
I need to see when charts started to react to it
Thanks
  • #158
  • Sep 18, 2018 8:27am Sep 18, 2018 8:27am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Can anyone remember when Trump first initiated the trade war with China? I need to see when charts started to react to it Thanks
I can't, but this is from March, so obviously it was already common knowledge.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...na-then-europe
  • #159
  • Sep 18, 2018 8:38am Sep 18, 2018 8:38am
Quoting cat
{quote} I can't, but this is from March, so obviously it was already common knowledge. https://www.theguardian.com/business...na-then-europe
Thanks!
  • #160
  • Edited 3:20am Sep 19, 2018 2:55am | Edited 3:20am
Dax pretty brutal so far this morning. cutting up and down between very clear support with those big 100 and 200 moving averages running up just beneath, and resistance which is just above around 12,200. Draghi later which should ignite things.

Big turnaround in US equities yesterday, but S&P held at my 2,910 level posted above, and the Dow is still in this make or break zone beneath the trend line coming through at around 12,400.

Here are the latest musings from Peter Schiff. He talks for 15 mins on the US/China trade war, the stock market vis-a-vis bond yields and interest rates, so pretty interesting. Then you can switch off as he goes onto US politics.

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