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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #121
  • Sep 11, 2018 9:27am Sep 11, 2018 9:27am
Quoting cat
{quote} Not sure what you mean here. My Daily 20ema is at 924, which was comprehensively broken today, though the price is back above it now. Actually, I don't use the 20ema but the 20sma, though I only use it as a central MA around which price moves, but never as an S&R ma.
Mine is at 846, strange...
  • #122
  • Sep 11, 2018 12:19pm Sep 11, 2018 12:19pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Mine is at 846, strange...
I don't think it matters much, as I don't see the 20sma /ema as important in terms of levels. More important are the big ones - the 100 and 200sma/ema. I was expecting the Dow to fall to the H4 200ema today, but it held up strangely, perhaps following the Dax which found support before New York opened. As it happened, it did actually find support on the H3 200sma, by coincidence or not is impossible to say, but it did, and I have my H3 200sma at 25,749 currently, and my H4 200ema at 25,690.
  • #123
  • Sep 11, 2018 2:04pm Sep 11, 2018 2:04pm
2159 BST close of Dax30 only 2 pips from where it started 2300 Monday night. Doji D1 candle. After a fairly deep excursion lower......

After all that it could well go up Wednesday.

Dow was more jittery towards the close and finished about 20 pips under where it had been 3 hours earlier
  • #124
  • Sep 11, 2018 11:34pm Sep 11, 2018 11:34pm
I think we climb from here judging by my 2 day chart. Here's what I think may happen more or less over the coming week or so, Dax to climb back towards the 61.8 or 76.4% fibs, to then fall again. We are narrowing into the wedge of the pennant, which usually produces a big move out of it, and I would say the greatest likelihood is a big break to the downside. All the cards seem to be stacked that way at the moment anyway.
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  • #125
  • Sep 11, 2018 11:50pm Sep 11, 2018 11:50pm
Previous candle hammer, along with RSI signal on Daily TF suggests up on Dax.

However, US Treasury yields rose a bit overnight by 10bps, suggesting more rate hikes, need to be careful with Equities Longs.
  • #126
  • Sep 11, 2018 11:53pm Sep 11, 2018 11:53pm
Quoting cat
I think we climb from here judging by my 2 day chart. Here's what I think may happen more or less over the coming week or so, Dax to climb back towards the 61.8 or 76.4% fibs, to then fall again. We are narrowing into the wedge of the pennant, which usually produces a big move out of it, and I would say the greatest likelihood is a big break to the downside. All the cards seem to be stacked that way at the moment anyway. {image}
Nice analysis.
  • #127
  • Sep 11, 2018 11:56pm Sep 11, 2018 11:56pm
Quoting cat
I think we climb from here judging by my 2 day chart. Here's what I think may happen more or less over the coming week or so, Dax to climb back towards the 61.8 or 76.4% fibs, to then fall again. We are narrowing into the wedge of the pennant, which usually produces a big move out of it, and I would say the greatest likelihood is a big break to the downside. All the cards seem to be stacked that way at the moment anyway. {image}
11986 must hold for upside scenario IMO.

If 11974 support breaks then its downside again.
  • #128
  • Sep 12, 2018 12:06am Sep 12, 2018 12:06am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} 11986 must hold for upside scenario IMO. If 11974 support breaks then its downside again.
I have 11,850 as my lowest level beyond which it should push lower, so pretty much at the same level as yesterday's low, but whereas yesterday the price broke down below the H1 100sma, it is now above it, just, which should be bullish, though there is plenty of resistance to get through, first up, the 30m 200ema @ 12,030. I do have some nice looking support on today's CP @ 965 if the price gets there.
  • #129
  • Sep 12, 2018 3:37am Sep 12, 2018 3:37am
Dax

Mid morning Wednesday

I have marked 11975 as an important level below which I'd say the recovery is in doubt for another day or two.

It's fickle really. In the first part of the day it attained new heights not seen since last Thursday. RSI was also as strong as I've seen it so far in September (
  • #130
  • Sep 12, 2018 4:11am Sep 12, 2018 4:11am
That ECB news spoiled what was looking like a nice push up to R2 today on Dax. Maybe we will still get there, but it will now depend on which was New York wishes to take stocks, but Dow is currently at the top of this range we have been in for over a week, so it is by no means certain that they are going to buy it higher, and the Dow being as it is, it really can do anything the way it has been moving of late, and I for one do not even want to attempt to call which way i think it is going to go. The Dax levels I posted earlier still stand.
  • #131
  • Sep 12, 2018 6:26am Sep 12, 2018 6:26am
Messy old day on Dax, stuck between that 30m 200ema I mentioned above, and the support around today's CP I also drew attention to. It still looks good to break higher though this week as per my chart also posted above, though today I'm really not sure, as Dow also looks very uncertain as to today's likely direction. If anyone out there can see something more conclusive, we'd like to hear from you.
  • #132
  • Sep 12, 2018 7:03am Sep 12, 2018 7:03am
US stock markets appear likely to pull back substantially due to the financial climate. Note inevitable profit taking on US Dollar as well as NASDAQ rallies. Emerging markets are oversold. Gold is undervalued.
  • #133
  • Edited 8:29am Sep 12, 2018 8:18am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting keycurrency
US stock markets appear likely to pull back substantially due to the financial climate. Note inevitable profit taking on US Dollar as well as NASDAQ rallies. Emerging markets are oversold. Gold is undervalued.
Watching gold closely, and expecting a big move up imminently. As you'll see from the 2 weekly chart, the 76.4% fib is a strong support level which held last time, and just as strong is the 200sma resistance which has been capping gold since early 2016. I'm now expecting a move back up towards it.
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  • #134
  • Sep 12, 2018 8:56am Sep 12, 2018 8:56am
Quoting cat
{quote} Watching gold closely, and expecting a big move up imminently. As you'll see from the 2 weekly chart, the 76.4% fib is a strong support level which held last time, and just as strong is the 200sma resistance which has been capping gold since early 2016. I'm now expecting a move back up towards it. {image}
Funny you should mention it, I just bought gold based on weekly and monthly charts.
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  • #135
  • Sep 12, 2018 9:44am Sep 12, 2018 9:44am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Funny you should mention it, I just bought gold based on weekly and monthly charts. {image} {image}
The H4 200ema is just above now, so don't be too worried if it comes back off that again as it has been doing since the 28th August, because to me it looks like a fantastic level to buy, especially if you're prepared to ride through the rough weather. Having said that, it may break straight through this resistance level and climb strongly, I certainly have more bullish weight behind it on this current break out to the north than previously. If it does come all the way back, watch the 1,190 level for support.
  • #136
  • Sep 12, 2018 9:55am Sep 12, 2018 9:55am
Quoting cat
{quote} The H4 200ema is just above now, so don't be too worried if it comes back off that again as it has been doing since the 28th August, because to me it looks like a fantastic level to buy, especially if you're prepared to ride through the rough weather. Having said that, it may break straight through this resistance level and climb strongly, I certainly have more bullish weight behind it on this current break out to the north than previously. If it does come all the way back, watch the 1,190 level for support.
I agree, for both technical and fundamental reasons. Look at 2008.
I haven't held LT positions in years, I hope this one takes me to 2019
  • #137
  • Sep 12, 2018 1:09pm Sep 12, 2018 1:09pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I agree, for both technical and fundamental reasons. Look at 2008. I haven't held LT positions in years, I hope this one takes me to 2019
  • #138
  • Sep 13, 2018 4:19am Sep 13, 2018 4:19am
Dax seems to have got legs this morning

If there's something to go by, the 25EMA has crossed up through the 100EMA on H1, (using 23hr/day price feed), and I would call that a reasonably bullish signal
  • #139
  • Sep 14, 2018 9:19am Sep 14, 2018 9:19am
Looks as though the Dow might finally have broken south after almost reaching the top of the drop on Feb 2nd. Hope this time it follows through.
  • #140
  • Sep 14, 2018 11:03am Sep 14, 2018 11:03am
Quoting tomase
Looks as though the Dow might finally have broken south after almost reaching the top of the drop on Feb 2nd. Hope this time it follows through.
Bloomberg/Trump gave it a severe hammering but it came back off the bottom Prior to this hit new high on the daily chart and today/s movement is still less than the average daily range. I think it is still resilient. But whereas the institutions react within seconds to news, and they own most of the shares, it will be interesting to see what the mass of private investors and other people slow to respond will do to it next week

It is all about risk On v risk Off
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