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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #101
  • Sep 6, 2018 6:23am Sep 6, 2018 6:23am
Quoting cat
{quote} Small thinking never got anyone anywhere!
Yes but kidding aside, we are being constrained by arithmetic biology in a geometric financial world. No matter how much money we make, we are finite in size, life expectancy, sleep deprivation, appetite etc. Therefore I value my finite time (and lack of stress) more than whatever wealth I create by sacrificing my finite resources.

Also, what would I do with a billion?? Even my wife couldn't spend all that !
  • #102
  • Sep 6, 2018 6:32am Sep 6, 2018 6:32am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Yes but kidding aside, we are being constrained by arithmetic biology in a geometric financial world. No matter how much money we make, we are finite in size, life expectancy, sleep deprivation, appetite etc. Therefore I value my finite time (and lack of stress) more than whatever wealth I create by sacrificing my finite resources. Also, what would I do with a billion?? Even my wife couldn't spend all that !


Mine would have a bloody good go at it!!
  • #103
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:32am Sep 7, 2018 1:32am
Those of you wondering what might be in store for equities today, Dax is sitting on a big support trend line, and if you haven't drawn it in yet, go back to 11th Feb 2016, and connect the low on that day to the low on 24th June 2016, and putting an extension on it, you'll see the price hit it yesterday and held.

Dow is in a hell of a range, but looking technically like it might just break out of this to the north, and it is NFP day, so one has to be careful as it can whip all over the place when the figures come out as you will know.

So, looking like we may get a decent rebound on the Dax, and a break to the north on the Dow, but we'll have to wait and see. If Dow does break north, then the 76.4% from the 29th August high held yesterday, and if that breaks, then we have the trend line running through, which now I have at about 26,275 if it gets above the 29th Aug high. To the south, there is strong support in the form of the H2 200ema/sma, so those have to go first if the price is to break out of this range to the south.
  • #104
  • Sep 7, 2018 9:43am Sep 7, 2018 9:43am
Donald Trump farting into the microphone would have moved the markets more than that NFP today, so unless there's a late rally, it's all even stevens with Dow stuck in this horrible range and Dax still sloshing around the trendline.

Everything to play for next week.
  • #105
  • Sep 9, 2018 2:58am Sep 9, 2018 2:58am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} 25800 held so far and the daily seems to be on the way up, I will watch closely the re-test of the 26150 area but I really don't see anything on the weekly that encourages me to consider selling for the time being. Trade safe {image}
I was quite surprised of the buy-up after the Dow dropped close to 200pts on Friday, it was sitting under the 1H 200sma, where it rejected beautifully at the BRN of 26k. I thought here comes a nice trend change. Need to watch this closely this week/month.
  • #106
  • Sep 9, 2018 6:06am Sep 9, 2018 6:06am
Quoting cat
Those of you wondering what might be in store for equities today, Dax is sitting on a big support trend line, and if you haven't drawn it in yet, go back to 11th Feb 2016, and connect the low on that day to the low on 24th June 2016, and putting an extension on it, you'll see the price hit it yesterday and held. Dow is in a hell of a range, but looking technically like it might just break out of this to the north, and it is NFP day, so one has to be careful as it can whip all over the place when the figures come out as you will know. So, looking...
I would not put any trust in the extension of a couple points in time more than 2 years ago 4 months apart, the sensitivity to a few pips in the length of either wick has a massive effect on where the lines might fan out as of now. Difficult to see where the support for Dax stands right now, because it has broken down levels seen for several weeks and 11700 is key.
  • #107
  • Sep 9, 2018 6:20am Sep 9, 2018 6:20am
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} I would not put any trust in the extension of a couple points in time more than 2 years ago 4 months apart, the sensitivity to a few pips in the length of either wick has a massive effect on where the lines might fan out as of now. Difficult to see where the support for Dax stands right now, because it has broken down levels seen for several weeks and 11700 is key.
Should be a bit of historical support around 11790 and 11750, followed by 11700.

If she really tanks, I'd be looking at 11500 BRN, or 11406-400 on Weekly 20sma, will be solid there.

I wouldn't be surprised if we hit the Weekly 200sma within the next few months.
  • #108
  • Sep 9, 2018 7:24am Sep 9, 2018 7:24am
Quoting wiseambition
{quote} I would not put any trust in the extension of a couple points in time more than 2 years ago 4 months apart, the sensitivity to a few pips in the length of either wick has a massive effect on where the lines might fan out as of now. Difficult to see where the support for Dax stands right now, because it has broken down levels seen for several weeks and 11700 is key.
I never said I was putting any trust in it, I was just pointing it out as something to be aware of, nothing more.
  • #109
  • Sep 9, 2018 7:30am Sep 9, 2018 7:30am
Big weekend in Sweden, and perhaps the whole of Europe, because if there is a shock result with the anti-immigration parties doing a lot better than anyone expects them to, as I suspect, then this could send shock waves through Europe as Sweden is considered to be a beacon of Liberal democracy, but per capita it has taken in the greatest proportion of migrants during the past couple of years than any other European nation. Expect the markets to plummet if the nationalists do better than expected, because there is currently an anti-immigrant surge across Europe, and a shock result in Sweden will have far reaching ramifications for the entire eurozone.
  • #110
  • Edited 1:57am Sep 10, 2018 1:40am | Edited 1:57am
Quoting cat
{quote} I never said I was putting any trust in it, I was just pointing it out as something to be aware of, nothing more.
Unusual that we have had about 7 trading days on the losing side though. But there's no law to stop it. However in the last couple days it does show signs of levelling out
  • #111
  • Sep 10, 2018 11:37am Sep 10, 2018 11:37am
The Dow still in the range, but I am beginning to get confirmation on my two day chart of a significant move south within the next few days. I apologize for not being more specific, but it does synchronize with the resistance levels I have already posted on this thread, and so will merely be confirmation of what I have already predicted. The Dow has moved sideways for almost two weeks since it peaked at 26,170, and now that range looks to me as if it is about to break down.

Dax rose a little today, but nothing spectacular, and it can easily drop straight through the trend line on its way towards 11,000 once the Dow makes a move.

As I always say, this is only my own reading of things, and I may well be completely wrong, so as always, trade only what YOU see, and not what anyone else sees.
  • #112
  • Sep 10, 2018 11:43am Sep 10, 2018 11:43am
Quoting cat
The Dow still in the range, but I am beginning to get confirmation on my two day chart of a significant move south within the next few days. I apologize for not being more specific, but it does synchronize with the resistance levels I have already posted on this thread, and so will merely be confirmation of what I have already predicted. The Dow has moved sideways for almost two weeks since it peaked at 26,170, and now that range looks to me as if it is about to break down. Dax rose a little today, but nothing spectacular, and it can easily drop...
Dow looks like its in Sell mode IMO.... If I was trading this now, I would short and place a SL at 25955... Just my 2 cents.
  • #113
  • Sep 10, 2018 1:00pm Sep 10, 2018 1:00pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Dow looks like its in Sell mode IMO.... If I was trading this now, I would short and place a SL at 25955... Just my 2 cents.
It's been in a 200 pip or thereabouts range for the last 7 trading days. It's at the bottom of this range right now, so I wouldn't sell here. I'd wait until it gets back up to the top of this range again before selling, with a stop above 26,100. It may already be too late to sell for those who want to but missed today's high. There may be another chance later today or tomorrow. To where? Well, a 1000 pip move or more could be on the cards.
  • #114
  • Sep 10, 2018 1:14pm Sep 10, 2018 1:14pm
Take a look at the 2007-8 daily structure, if this fractal pans out its going to lead to a higher high b4 the final leg down, months more speculation left but I've taken a short around here and slightly in the red ATM. So what do I know....
scale in, scale out
  • #115
  • Sep 11, 2018 1:16am Sep 11, 2018 1:16am
Quoting rotherwell
Take a look at the 2007-8 daily structure, if this fractal pans out its going to lead to a higher high b4 the final leg down, months more speculation left but I've taken a short around here and slightly in the red ATM. So what do I know....
I would agree, it can go higher, but this 170 level is important for me, because if it can now fall 1000 or so, it is going to be difficult for it to make new highs. I'm hoping it falls from here.
  • #116
  • Sep 11, 2018 3:07am Sep 11, 2018 3:07am
Dax currently falling nicely away from its 30m 20sma, and Dow to me looking like it should put in a 200+ drop from here today, if it can get below this H2 200ema support level though which has been holding it up for the past week.
  • #117
  • Sep 11, 2018 4:31am Sep 11, 2018 4:31am
Dax just hit some support at 862, so it may rise a bit now. It can go lower today, but i think it needs to lift a bit and form a rollover pattern first.

Dow just broke the 30m 200ema support level. Next support level for me is the H4 200ema @ 690ish
  • #118
  • Sep 11, 2018 10:35am Sep 11, 2018 10:35am
It seems that the Daily EMA20 is doing its job for the moment.
  • #119
  • Sep 11, 2018 11:02am Sep 11, 2018 11:02am
Quite a turnaround on equities this afternoon. I have Dow resistance on 026-30, and if that breaks, 26,100 should be a big test if it gets there.
  • #120
  • Sep 11, 2018 11:25am Sep 11, 2018 11:25am
Quoting darko2010
It seems that the Daily EMA20 is doing its job for the moment.
Not sure what you mean here. My Daily 20ema is at 924, which was comprehensively broken today, though the price is back above it now. Actually, I don't use the 20ema but the 20sma, though I only use it as a central MA around which price moves, but never as an S&R ma.
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