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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #81
  • Aug 23, 2018 10:53am Aug 23, 2018 10:53am
Dow support holding for now on the h1 200ema. What the price often does ( not only on Dow, anywhere ) when it reaches the 200ema/sma with the 100sma above, is pull back up towards the 100sma before falling again to make new lows. Let's see what it does this time.
  • #82
  • Aug 25, 2018 8:37am Aug 25, 2018 8:37am
Watch the S&P 500 potential weekly MACD diversion. It is setting up beautifully right now. It's double topping but can easily move up to 3,000. A confirmed weekly MACD diversion would be a massive short signal for me.
  • #83
  • Aug 26, 2018 9:22am Aug 26, 2018 9:22am
By the way, it was the weekly diversion between July and October 2007 which set the top of the market before the crash. The Dow is on for potential diversion as well if it pushes to new highs, clearly see on the 2 weekly chart.

Diversion can be a massive exhaustion signal, so watch for it on US equities. As yet, there is none, which is a sign at least that there may be more upside before they begin to come down.

27,500-28,000 would be a perfect level for solid MACD diversion were the Dow to get to that level and then stall.
  • #84
  • Aug 27, 2018 4:02pm Aug 27, 2018 4:02pm
If you've been following this thread, you'll know that the Dow Jones is now up at the levels I was anticipating when I began it a few weeks ago, but also up at the levels I am watching closely for a potential top - I said 26,000 up to 26,300-400 or so, so we are there or close if I am right.

Tonight, the financial news is full of today's strong performance in the stock markets - big gains on the Dow, record highs on the S&P, and the Nasdaq continuing to power towards the heavens. All those, like me, who have followed price movement over the years, know that crashes are always preceded by big moves northward. Then, as if out of nowhere, down they come. I am not expecting a Bitcoin style crash, but I think the chances that we are nearing the top are pretty high. Amidst all this extreme bullishness, many will wonder what the hell I'm talking about, and they may be right, but one doesn't survive ten years in this business without having gained some knowledge.

I also said that there would need to be some kind of a catalyst that will shock the markets and bring them down from the current levels. What could this be?

I have been following the Syrian conflict closely for several years, and believe that we have not seen the end of it. As it type, more US warships are gathering in the Mediterranean, as are Russian. I do not, and have never believed, that Washington has any intention of allowing President Assad to remain in power. Could the final Syrian act be just around the corner, and will this be the catalyst that will send global stock markets south? I think we may know fairly soon.

https://www.rt.com/news/436933-us-fake-attack-syria/
  • #85
  • Aug 29, 2018 10:09am Aug 29, 2018 10:09am
Regarding what actually moves markets, this link might be of interest to some. It's by Robert Prechter at Elliot Wave International and is a one off 11 page article (costing $20). It's a closely argued and sometimes heavy going case for the socioeconomic/Elliot wave model versus the fundamental/News driven model as to what constitutes the real catalyst for market turns amongst other things.

https://www.elliottwave.com
  • #86
  • Aug 30, 2018 2:19am Aug 30, 2018 2:19am
I think that may well have been a significant fail to get above the trend line ( see 2 day chart above ) on the Dow last night, and now it looks set to fall further for the remainder of this week at least. Whether this is the top of the retrace before it comes down significantly remains tro be seen, but I was looking at between 26,000 - 26,300 or so, and so yesterday's high of 26,168 fits nicely within that.

If it comes down today, then the H1 100sma at 26,000 may provide some support, sending it back up a bit, but I would expect it to turn and fall to lower levels, my next one being potential support on the H1 200ema at around 25,878.

If you're trading Dax today, then you don't need me to tell you that it has come down overnight and currently sits on 30m 200ema support @ 12,509, from which it is lifting slightly, but only to sell back down I would say.
  • #87
  • Aug 31, 2018 1:29am Aug 31, 2018 1:29am
I'm expecting a pullback on the Dow Jones today to one of the fib levels, perhaps the 50% & 26,050, or higher to the 61.8% @ 080. The 76.4% is @ 26,112, and I would not expect higher than that unless the price is going to put in a really strong performance and break the week's highs. On both the Dax and Dow I'm anticipating the price to rise from present levels and to fall back again without making new highs, and to finish the day somewhere between the two. We'll see.
  • #88
  • Aug 31, 2018 12:15pm Aug 31, 2018 12:15pm
Today's downward pressure has been a lot stronger than I anticipated today on the Dow and Dax, with the Dow unable to hold onto its earlier gains. This means that this selling pressure could now really be building into next week from the 26,168 rejection this week. As I type, the weekly Dow candle is close to forming a strong looking shooting star, and although this is not necessarily significant on its own, combined with my resistance level which has held so far, I believe it could be.

If we do come down heavily from here next week, I'm looking at a support level around 25,500 initially, and this should be quite strong as it has the H4 200sma/ema on it and it is a nice round number.

There is still plenty of support so short of nuclear war or some other global disaster, no crash yet, and that 26,168 is now the level Dow is going to have to crack to move to new highs I feel.
  • #89
  • Sep 4, 2018 6:57am Sep 4, 2018 6:57am
Quoting cat
I'm expecting a pullback on the Dow Jones today to one of the fib levels, perhaps the 50% & 26,050, or higher to the 61.8% @ 080. The 76.4% is @ 26,112, and I would not expect higher than that unless the price is going to put in a really strong performance and break the week's highs. On both the Dax and Dow I'm anticipating the price to rise from present levels and to fall back again without making new highs, and to finish the day somewhere between the two. We'll see.
Good call Cat, I didn't take any position as I wasn't comfortable with the PA for now. Better be outside and miss out rather than be in and ride the pain train.
Trade safe
  • #90
  • Sep 4, 2018 9:28am Sep 4, 2018 9:28am
Quoting cat
Today's downward pressure has been a lot stronger than I anticipated today on the Dow and Dax, with the Dow unable to hold onto its earlier gains. This means that this selling pressure could now really be building into next week from the 26,168 rejection this week. As I type, the weekly Dow candle is close to forming a strong looking shooting star, and although this is not necessarily significant on its own, combined with my resistance level which has held so far, I believe it could be. If we do come down heavily from here next week, I'm looking...
Selling selling selling, how many shorts have been burned I wonder. They have fiscal boost and good economy, why to fall? where to run? Let's ask this question first before trying to take a clue from technical picture which is actually scary (Calling on peaks looks really dangerous)
  • #91
  • Sep 4, 2018 10:23am Sep 4, 2018 10:23am
Quoting dispersion
{quote} Selling selling selling, how many shorts have been burned I wonder. They have fiscal boost and good economy, why to fall? where to run? Let's ask this question first before trying to take a clue from technical picture which is actually scary (Calling on peaks looks really dangerous)
You are not me, do not see what I see, so what may be scary for you may not be for me. Offer something objective, or stay away from this thread.
  • #92
  • Sep 4, 2018 10:31am Sep 4, 2018 10:31am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Good call Cat, I didn't take any position as I wasn't comfortable with the PA for now. Better be outside and miss out rather than be in and ride the pain train. Trade safe
No worries, there will be many more opportunities to go short. My top level held well, but Dow is only 350 pips down from the 29th Aug high, and I think it can still pull back to 26,000 or so, though hopefully not much higher. I'm in this one for the long haul anyway whilst I trade intra-day as normal. If it works out, great, if not, no big deal. The biggest threat I see right now is contagion from the emerging markets, so we'll see what happens there.
  • #93
  • Sep 5, 2018 2:23pm Sep 5, 2018 2:23pm
Quoting cat
{quote} You are not me, do not see what I see, so what may be scary for you may not be for me. Offer something objective, or stay away from this thread.

I would really like to see objective thoughts from you (fundamental one preferably) about why it has to fall. I cited some reasons what are your counter-arguments?
  • #94
  • Sep 6, 2018 1:11am Sep 6, 2018 1:11am
Quoting dispersion
{quote} I would really like to see objective thoughts from you (fundamental one preferably) about why it has to fall. I cited some reasons what are your counter-arguments?
Look through this thread. I have posted my charts and given my levels, and as you will see, I am correct in my analysis, the Dow and Dax have come down from the levels I predicted. I use TA for my trading, and only TA, for the reasons you would have seen had you read through the thread. That is all I have to say to you.
  • #95
  • Sep 6, 2018 1:31am Sep 6, 2018 1:31am
Just to reiterate for dispersion and others, this is a thread tracking the movements of mainly the Dow and Dax from the opening post when I gave some levels I believed may be significant as major resistance. So far, they have held and Us and EU stocks are currently falling. I did not post any fundamental analysis for two reasons, a/ because I never use it in my trading, and b/ because it is impossible to know what may transpire. This does not mean we should be ignorant of developments in the world economy, but for me anyway, what happens is beyond my control and so does not inform my trading decisions, especially as I am for the most part, an intra-day, so fundamentals play a zero % role in my trading. I believe everything we need to know as traders can be seen in the charts. If this does not apply to you, then you probably have plenty more work to do.

What I did ask for above however, is for anyone tp post any of their own thoughts about where the global economy may be headed in the short to medium term, as there always gas to be a catalyst as there was in 2008 despite the technicals screaming SELL long before the shit hit the fan in the US with the sub-prime mortgage debacle. At the moment, I believe we are seeing some contagion from the emerging markets crises spill into the core, hence the selling.
  • #96
  • Sep 6, 2018 2:42am Sep 6, 2018 2:42am
Quoting cat
Just to reiterate for dispersion and others, this is a thread tracking the movements of mainly the Dow and Dax from the opening post when I gave some levels I believed may be significant as major resistance. So far, they have held and Us and EU stocks are currently falling. I did not post any fundamental analysis for two reasons, a/ because I never use it in my trading, and b/ because it is impossible to know what may transpire. This does not mean we should be ignorant of developments in the world economy, but for me anyway, what happens is beyond...
I haven't been tracking GDP numbers across the globe, but I do know based on looking at the charts that with the price of Iron Ore and Copper (Dr Copper as its known), suggests a slow down to one of the greatest construction programs in history, and also a slowdown in manufacturing we know China demand for these two base metals is quite high, from a global point of view (perhaps as high as 40% or more each). Having said this, this will spark a slowdown in countries that export heavily to China, including Australia. In Australia, we are also on the cusp of large corporate restructures, which can leave many unemployed, and the housing market is showing major signs of dropping in the major capital cities. So there is plenty of fundamental risks, not to mention Brexit, and the currency crisis in select EM's where they've borrowed heavily in USD (which is rising, along with US rates, a double whammy for those repaying foreign USD denominated loans). Plenty of risks around, its just whether the Western media will give these risks adequate air-time to foster market panic further.
  • #97
  • Sep 6, 2018 5:30am Sep 6, 2018 5:30am
Quoting cat
{quote} No worries, there will be many more opportunities to go short. My top level held well, but Dow is only 350 pips down from the 29th Aug high, and I think it can still pull back to 26,000 or so, though hopefully not much higher. I'm in this one for the long haul anyway whilst I trade intra-day as normal. If it works out, great, if not, no big deal. The biggest threat I see right now is contagion from the emerging markets, so we'll see what happens there.
25800 held so far and the daily seems to be on the way up, I will watch closely the re-test of the 26150 area but I really don't see anything on the weekly that encourages me to consider selling for the time being.

Trade safe
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  • #98
  • Edited 6:12am Sep 6, 2018 5:57am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} 25800 held so far and the daily seems to be on the way up, I will watch closely the re-test of the 26150 area but I really don't see anything on the weekly that encourages me to consider selling for the time being. Trade safe {image}
On the weekly you are right, loads more upside potential, but watch this trend line because it held and a break of it will see Dow reach for 26,500 where I have another level of potential resistance. Watch the S&P weekly divergence with MACD which is showing up at the moment. Ideally I'd like to see divergence on the Dow as well, so this is something to watch out for if US equities push higher.
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  • #99
  • Sep 6, 2018 6:10am Sep 6, 2018 6:10am
Quoting cat
{quote} On the weekly you are right, loads more upside potential, but watch this trend line because it held and a break of it will see Dow reach for 26,500 where I have another level of potential resistance. Watch the S&P weekly divergence with MACD which is showing up at the moment. Ideally I'd like to see divergence on the Dow as well, so this is something to watch out for if US equities push higher. {image}
Let's see how the weekly candle closes, I learned the hard way that higher time frames speak louder than smaller ones. Once the weekly tells me to sell, I won't care if I missed out on 100 or even 500 pips, but if I sell and the market keeps going up, I will be in a wishful thinking mode I never want to be in ever again in my life. I realize at my age that I don't need billions to be happy, millions will suffice
  • #100
  • Sep 6, 2018 6:15am Sep 6, 2018 6:15am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} ...... I don't need billions to be happy, millions will suffice
Small thinking never got anyone anywhere!
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