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NFP 10/6

  • #121
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:34am Oct 6, 2006 10:34am
Time to think/rethink.

Did you know that with the recent USD rally, some currency pairs had reached record highs?

Im talking about USDJPY. This pair is now 119ish. USDJPY has not reached this level since January 2006... Sure is RIPE for a south move.

But what do you all trully think of the revision? I personally think that with the revision, USD should drop! Like some people have said, if the previous month is 188K and now is 50K, that is totally USD bear! I wonder how Asia would react monday?
  • #122
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:36am Oct 6, 2006 10:36am
Damn herd of Elephants just trampled my garden! could it get any worse?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #123
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:42am Oct 6, 2006 10:42am
Hehe, i try to explain earlier on this thread that teh revisions is the key de-facto that made the dollar stronger, yet people are still looking for something to blame, but by brushing off the revisions, you are ignoring one of the key factors of this market. As readers can see, this thread is full of people who loss on this trade, so they vent for something looking to blame, some blame this precise FF rather than their education in understanding the markets. I lost alot on this trade, but that doesnt bother me (even on limited income). Successfull traders are always winners in the long runs, WITH LOSSES on their journey to becoming a great trader. No one can win them all, this isnt pokemon where the hero always win, rather this is high volitile investment that can either pay off or you pay them off. Dont blame others for the mistakes that you made in trading. I take losses and learn from them, just like chess, if you make a mistake now, you will limit those mistakes in the future. Trading isnt easy, but it is easier than working a shitty job, so now, i am dedicating myself to this market by learning news and HOW it moves and reading books that help the trader out in the long run, with expierences to boot with it.


to sum up:

Learn the market, understand the market, have a good risk management (dont just build build build, if you keep building your account, then even a small pip loss with all of your leverage can add up to big money loss compared to the opening balance, so manage your account and tweek it at the end of the month, not before or after a trade) AND the right attitude. I have learned my lesson, i plan to do this in the long term, so i cant just gamble every trade. I hope other learn their lesson too, rather than blame outside factors for the numbers that came out today.


Oww, btw, from bloomberg tv-online, some floor trader said that 60k revision is worth 120k today, so if you add that to the 51, then its over 171k, which means that this is WAY better than expected at 120k.
  • #124
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:52am Oct 6, 2006 10:52am
Quoting summitfx
We all mistakes- You write so intelligently about the subject and then this...
Well u took on yourself to call me a "joker" after I stated that my opinions were wrong-didn't really get that...

All I was saying was that after spending many hours looking everywhere I could-there was nothing out there regarding revisions and what they could mean-I'm not looking to blame anyone for anything-just pointing out that a very important piece of information was missing and how important experience is here...

Good lesson learned though...
  • #125
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:52am Oct 6, 2006 10:52am
Quoting Narc
no trades for me today. am going to spend times doing other things to clear my mind of forex. this scarred me LOL trades will start again next week
I am absolutely crying right now over lost opportunity and uncertainty about my methods. My system broke down on me today and then I allowed emotion to take over.

My impulse is to get right back on the horse, but I don't trust myself.

Arrrggghhh...I feel like the kicker who missed the game winner in OT. I want to play the next game NOW.
  • #126
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:56am Oct 6, 2006 10:56am
Quoting DePastino
Arrrggghhh...I feel like the kicker who missed the game winner in OT. I want to play the next game NOW.
The absolute Worst reason I can think of to place a trade.
  • #127
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:58am Oct 6, 2006 10:58am
Oww, btw, from bloomberg tv-online, some floor trader said that 60k revision is worth 120k today, so if you add that to the 51, then its over 171k, which means that this is WAY better than expected at 120k.[/quote]

Exactly my point-there was nothing anywhere about possible revisions-BB radio explained it well also-with plenty of time to make an excellent profit...
  • #128
  • Oct 6, 2006 11:02am Oct 6, 2006 11:02am
BB Radio?

Are you referring to the Online BB radio?
  • #129
  • Oct 6, 2006 11:03am Oct 6, 2006 11:03am
No, just plain old BB radio-they explained it very well...
  • #130
  • Oct 6, 2006 11:07am Oct 6, 2006 11:07am
[quote=BurgerKing]Time to think/rethink.

Did you know that with the recent USD rally, some currency pairs had reached record highs?

Im talking about USDJPY. This pair is now 119ish. USDJPY has not reached this level since January 2006... Sure is RIPE for a south move.

I give you the EUR/USD October 2004. All time high, to an even larger all time high. (lost lots of pips on that one).

Food for thought.
  • #131
  • Oct 6, 2006 11:18am Oct 6, 2006 11:18am
It's still very negative that september jobs came in 70k less than expected. Maybe we are in for another huge revision next month?
  • #132
  • Oct 6, 2006 2:37pm Oct 6, 2006 2:37pm
Quoting Bemac
The absolute Worst reason I can think of to place a trade.
Which is why I didn't.

Lesson learned. I'll just mentally debit today towards the $3-5k in forex courses that I never took. It could have been a LOT worse than it was.
  • #133
  • Oct 6, 2006 2:49pm Oct 6, 2006 2:49pm
Quoting DePastino
Which is why I didn't.

Lesson learned. I'll just mentally debit today towards the $3-5k in forex courses that I never took. It could have been a LOT worse than it was.
Glad to hear it DePastino. Come Monday, you're still in the game.
  • #134
  • Oct 6, 2006 3:57pm Oct 6, 2006 3:57pm
Quoting XLInvestor
I give you the EUR/USD October 2004. All time high, to an even larger all time high. (lost lots of pips on that one).

Food for thought.
Damn! I already shorted; Hmm... Perhaps, i'd hedge this position with a BUY a few pips above just in case.
  • #135
  • Oct 6, 2006 4:42pm Oct 6, 2006 4:42pm
Quoting DePastino
I am absolutely crying right now over lost opportunity and uncertainty about my methods. My system broke down on me today and then I allowed emotion to take over.

My impulse is to get right back on the horse, but I don't trust myself.

Arrrggghhh...I feel like the kicker who missed the game winner in OT. I want to play the next game NOW.
I wanted to make a couple of comments in the aftermath of today's NFP report. I think a lot of traders feel the same way DePastino feels. Even though I approached things correctly and had a good result from the report, I'm evaluating my methods and strategies for keeping risk under control. Days like today make me realize how little I really know, and how slight the difference between huge profits and huge losses. After doing this for a long time I still get emotional after the type of movement we had today. My saving grace was that I had a plan and I was able to execute it. I don't claim any special prescience or knowledge about what the markets "should" do on such and such a number but I realize the fact that when it comes down to it we are really not trading the news report. We are trading other traders' reactions to the news. This is a key distinction. Rather than looking for logical reasons as to why it moved as it moved, think in terms of a gameplan that can help you capture the movement that the market offers as a result of the news. For instance, if the market gaps up, do X, if it gaps down do Y. Think it through and analyze past situations to make sure your reasoning is sound. Having a plan will help overcome the freezing up or uncertainty though you still need to discipline yourself to act. The speed and sheer magnitude of the moves on a news day like NFP tends to put the brain in a kind of numbed state of paralysis, so you need that plan worked out in advance so that you don't have to think, you can just act when the time comes.

One other comment on confidence: it takes a high degree of confidence to execute a method quickly and flawlessly in the heat of a highly volatile market. I would suggest reviewing your method in detail, making adjustments where necessary and papertrading it until you feel confident again that you can execute it with money on the line. While not all confident traders make money, a trader who lacks confidence has already lost the battle before it has begun.
  • #136
  • Oct 6, 2006 4:53pm Oct 6, 2006 4:53pm
NFP, great giver of pain. I interpret this as sign from above to completely abandon news trading and convert to trendism.
  • #137
  • Oct 6, 2006 5:33pm Oct 6, 2006 5:33pm
Quote
NFP, great giver of pain. I interpret this as sign from above to completely abandon news trading and convert to trendism.

I diversified into Mouteki + Carry Trade strategy.

Its working for me. The profit may be slow, but steady nonetheless. Comes handy during "newsless - boring" week
  • #138
  • Oct 6, 2006 6:09pm Oct 6, 2006 6:09pm
BK,

Any particular pair under consideration for carry trading?

Lou
  • #139
  • Oct 6, 2006 7:47pm Oct 6, 2006 7:47pm
Quoting pipscooper
One other comment on confidence: it takes a high degree of confidence to execute a method quickly and flawlessly in the heat of a highly volatile market. ...... While not all confident traders make money, a trader who lacks confidence has already lost the battle before it has begun.
My Fellow Newstraders,

I'm amazed at the carnage wrought by NFP this month. And Mr. Trend my friend, you too? Say it ain't so.

Would anyone believe I made a very, very healthy profit? As usual? On all my trading platforms? Despite one broker adding a 20 pip premium (or was it 25?) on buy/sell stops? Despite slippage? 'Tis true indeed, true indeed.

It's why they call me "MoneyMa$ter"; everything I touch prospers.

Maybe I'll post my accounts jus' fo' da haters, doubters and naysayers. Posting accounts and results for hundreds of dollars is cool; posting at my level I think is tacky which is why I don't do it.

Pipscooper makes an excellent point. In order to adapt, improvise and dominate, one must have confidence, without which thou shalt surely perish.
  • #140
  • Oct 6, 2006 8:09pm Oct 6, 2006 8:09pm
Show me the Money Master

Quoting MoneyMa$ter
My Fellow Newstraders,

I'm amazed at the carnage wrought by NFP this month. And Mr. Trend my friend, you too? Say it ain't so.

Would anyone believe I made a very, very healthy profit? As usual? On all my trading platforms? Despite one broker adding a 20 pip premium (or was it 25?) on buy/sell stops? Despite slippage? 'Tis true indeed, true indeed.

It's why they call me "MoneyMa$ter"; everything I touch prospers.

Maybe I'll post my accounts jus' fo' da haters, doubters and naysayers. Posting accounts and results for hundreds of dollars is cool; posting at my level I think is tacky which is why I don't do it.

Pipscooper makes an excellent point. In order to adapt, improvise and dominate, one must have confidence, without which thou shalt surely perish.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
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