NFP 10/6

What is the forcast for this month? The FF calendar says 125K; however Burger's sticky reads 120K. By the way, awesome job on that thread! Heres to a happy friday.

Hi, I'll post the Reuters estimate shortly. In the meanwhile, here is a link to NFP responses through 2005. A chap called Stevegee kindly posted them on Oanda a long time ago. They are a nice compliment to BK's excellent charts.

http://stevegee58.fortunecity.com/fx_news_study/

PS - Reading the Oanda chat rooms now, many types of news trading strategies aren't so viable on their platform as spread widening has increased to 20pips+ sometimes on many news releases....looks like its making a lot of people angry...I think as traders migrate to the fewer and fewer platforms that still make straddling via, so they too will have to adapt.

i thought BK's charts where here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8618

Yeah, that shows the consensus to be 120K. Just trying to narrow it down.

Hi Merlin, they are but the thread is closed to further comment. :S

The Reuters forecast for the NFP is 125k.

That is the median forecast of 125 polled analysts. Flicking through the list the majority are shooting for between 110 and 150, so anything out of this could generate a big move.

The median forecast for the unemployment rate is 4.7%. Nobody is calling for les than this, but a handful are going for 4.8%. I also recommend keeping an eye on the average hourly earnings and work week, and for revisions, as these details sometimes overide the headline.
According to the derivatives auctions, the NFP estimate 122,880 jobs. (If the market estimate of the number changes between now and Friday, this will show up in the derivatives prices)

1. 130+ and previous month revised higher.
2. nice spike higher on cable (60-90pips) then reverse
3. opportunity to long dollar next week

I got the 120K from Dailyfx; FF has it listed at 125K and IFR has it at 105K... I personally prefer a larger "gap" even on this "estimate vs previous" number to get higher volatility.

Lets watch ADP tommorrow 8:15 and draw some conclusion afterwards.

As far as straddling, I tried it a few times and lost my ass! Now I try to get the number as fast as I can and trade on it. You need a big move to do it that way, and I do it on Oanda, but even with a 15 pip spread on an 80 pip move, it makes money. What they're doing is charging a commission, really...

Ok I get the forcast is 120-125 but what does that mean? it that good for dollar? or should I short it I trade the EUR/USD mainly so whats expected a strong dollar or weak dollar any guess Im new to this NFP I have traded it two times once profit one loss any stratagy to get a good profit?

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=econo-summaryboxtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=270 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtitle colSpan=2>Nonfarm Payrolls, M/M change </TD></TR><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=left>Consensus</TD><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=right>125,000 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><!--End First BOX--><!--IF THERE IS MORE DATA: Begin Second BOX--><TD><TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=econo-summaryboxtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=270 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtitle colSpan=2>Unemployment Rate, Level </TD></TR><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=left>Consensus</TD><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=right>4.7 % </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=econo-summaryboxtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=270 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtitle colSpan=2>Average Hourly Earnings, M/M change </TD></TR><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=left>Consensus</TD><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=right>0.3 % </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=econo-summaryboxtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=270 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtitle colSpan=2>Average Workweek, Level </TD></TR><TR><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=left>Consensus</TD><TD class=econo-summaryboxtxt align=right>33.8 hrs </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!--End of Data Charts-->off of the bloomberg website.

happy trades everyone!

What about unemployment? Will that be the big mover if NFP is flat to expectation?

Looking at past charts does not give the complete info-I havn't looked thru what was posted here-but after the ADP today I really believe you would have to see something below their number-75k-or something well above the consensus-150k or above-to have any real movement.

You need to see how far off consensus previous reports were-and you need to know how the currency moved in the days prior to the report. You also need to know the overall "feeling" in the market.

The ADP number is extremely low-yet not only was there no effect-the $ has actually strengthened. I believe that the market feels that with lower oil prices, a heating up of the economy will occur and once that happens, prices inevitably rise. I think they are going to basically ignore the lower readings as a monthly "blip", because as consumers start to spend more, companies, retailers, etc will ramp up employment and output to meet the new demand.

The ecomomy is booming. It survived the higher oil prices and recession is nowhere in site. If oil prices stay where they are or go lower-you'll see much higher numbers in jobs, retail, manufacturing, housing, etc in the nest few reports-perhaps to the what the Fed percieves as as "unsustainable rate". Basically, the lower oil prices will have a short term effect of lowering prices and a longer term effect of a heating up of the economy. I think this is the thinking that is driving currencies at this time.

here is an interesting view

Thanks for the post, Owen. There is a wealth of info there to research and follow up on-indices that I didn't even know existed. I hope everyone gets a chance to read this.

Any last minute market chatter?


GBPUSD dropped earlier to S2 (1.8720s) of a Fibonacci Pivot Point twice.

In the fourth of five economic derivatives auctions (yesterday), the estimate of NFP has been downgraded modestly to 116,210 jobs.

With all the record highs that were going on in September, doesn't it seem that the perception of the economy is getting stronger work into this? How critical is the Non-Farm reports to the fact that gas prices are lower, the economy seems to be getting stronger with record trading highs, the holiday season is here and temp workers are coming back into the work force?

For example, if we trade the GBP/USD would not the Pound go down in light of these events?

New guy here so I'm curious as to what others think.

Thanks,


Sklar

Hello Traders,

Most important today:
US NFP data

What we could see after?

In my opinion every number above 120.000-150.000 should push usd on higher levels and 1,2450-1,2500 will be on the cards,

but what could happen if number will be below 100.000?

we could see usd sell-off, ok, but how long? to 1,2740 or 1,2800 and after this another round of buing usd?

Propably number below 50.000 will see strong sell-off usd on the boards...

At this moment dont want to trade against usd, propably better to put sell order eur-usd ahead NFP, maybe will see surprise number?

Good Luck

Piotr

Its a tricky one this one. I am lucky to be long cable from 8740 so I will stick through the NFP and hope for a weak number below 100k and possible an unemployment rate of 4.8%. Let's see how the dices roll...

ahh, the smell of NFP day! i love it:

well the ADP NFP was lower than expected, thats about all we have to go on for predicting official NFP. employement is the first consumer based indicator of the month and thats why it is usually so far off concensus, theres so little to use for predictions.