Cable Update (GBPUSD)

H4 is bullish to me, and it is holding on, consolidating whatever you call it and this could be the key for the higher timeframe D1 to make a break in clearing the previous LH. May take awhile or may just dash through.

The risk of a “no deal“ Brexit, i.e. Great Britain leaving the EU without any fixed agreements, is still being underestimated by the market, as the British government has spent most of the past two years creating obstacles for itself and dealing with its own issues rather than shaping the relationship with the EU following 29th March 2019. Is the market naïve? I don’t think so, as during the euro zone crisis we experienced often enough how agreements were suddenly reached overnight to ensure the continued existence of the euro zone. But perhaps hope simply dies last. After all there is still plenty of time for a last minute agreement. If this was going to be reached, it would probably be initiated by the EU. The market saw an indication of this happening when the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier yesterday hinted during a press conference that the EU was willing to offer Great Britain a partnership like none ever offered to another country before. Although it was not the first time Barnier said this, Sterling was able to appreciate. After all, if the EU caved in that might mean that we would be spared nerve-wrecking trading days and nights as we saw during the euro zone crisis. Both sides are trying to take a constructive approach, probably also as a result of the time constraints - and are hoping that they will be able to achieve something during the next seven weeks that they were unable to achieve over the past two years. An agreement is allegedly now going to be reached by mid-November rather than in time for the EU summit on 18th October. The message I hear well, my faith alone is weak. I find it difficult to imagine that Barnier will suddenly give in, will accept that some of the EU’s “red lines” will be breached and now allow the UK to cherry-pick. But of course I would welcome a surprise; the negotiations will continue tomorrow. Over the past few weeks EURGBP has appreciated notably, that is mainly due to the strength of the euro rather than Sterling. To my mind that means that Sterling has considerable depreciation potential should the horror scenario of a no-deal Brexit turn out to be a real possibility due to a lack of concrete negotiation results.

What is the matter with you guys?...it is crystal clear which way this is heading....

what moving average is that Beyfor?

1.2985-68 will be the zone to watch for support. If solid like a rock then like what Nala says its crystal clear which way it will be going down

Anyone with good knowledge of continuation patterns can keep watch here while I go take a dump... lol

Look at the white 5 min chart and note the EMA has failed to make the HH of 3032 so it then tests the opposite side of 3024.

We don't know the targeted price because the next average is way down low so we look to the 1 hour to close at the EMA.

Get it Kev?

1.2952 next. few more pips below if PA so wishes (1.2930ish even) and back into the saddle for the next move up.

Whos kev? The next average could also be the new one currently being developed?

H4 has cleared MA200, lets see if support can be found in the wide zone, this is going to take quite awhile, the longer the more assuring it will be D1 will clear to positive territories - assessing based purely on technicals

That's right TG...this pullback forms the next average swing low so when price stops it and breaks it the average only has to climb back to the 3032 for the price to reach the 3054.

Kev is a Kiwi, I think he may be in bed now.

So until that happens I now sell the tops

Stopped out for BE on that short...always a tad risky going against the 1h trend but one never knows it could have broken the EMA a made a bit of profit.

Channels never last, it will have to breakout at some stage. Here is a chart showing the down channel on D1. Early Aug it breakout of the channel to the downside because the Double Top breakout objective has yet reached. (1.2450 yes but its another story) Using the support region of 1.2763 it made a turn around formation with its objective near the target. What is interesting is that although it clears the original down channel mid, it still has the channel resistance to overcome. Until 1.3079 is cleared successfully we then have an increased in hope to make a full turn around. On the hindsight the breakdown objective in all honesty is not yet achieved so this move up could either be temporal or this bullish turn around is the real deal. Daily support to keep this turn around fully functional 1.2793. Over to you guys to add in your views.

BF could your wave 5 been done? the way I see it although I don't use EW.

I am a novice trader so don't take my words too seriously lol

Ok the region seems supported for now, if it shoots up its the higher timeframe at work so either let the Elephant stomp you or you stomp the Elephant.

50 exp disp

count adjustment , but will see if the mkt will continue in the same momentum today to make sure that it is not an exaggerated move on positive news (EU's Barnier offers upbeat Brexit ) fueled by stop washing but it is a solid change.
A clear close above the moving average and higher monthly close means count needs adjustment

It is a no brainer, and like what I said before, if UK is not that strong an economy which has no to less impact to EU - why dont they just let the UK go? There was no noise when UK was joining the UE, now they want out there is too much of not just noice but all these fear mongering.

People in the UK are no mug - they know better that is why we voted to LEAVE. 50 Billion is a lot of money for us to pay - why waste it on something we can get from other countries without paying for "household bills"