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Attachments: NFP 10/6
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NFP 10/6

  • #101
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:37am Oct 6, 2006 9:37am
Ah, yes...the quintessential "what the news means" market...

To those of you speculating on North Korea...the dollar strength against the YEN DID start at the beginning of the speculation.

NFP number speculators - the revision was big...on CNBC this morning, they were talking about how the revision will have a larger impact because now there will be some doubt as to the viability of the released numbers. 51K could very well be revised upwards as well...plus, a lot of you alluded to it that 51K + ~60K was about 111K...The real pricing affect has to do with whether or not the feds were going to actually cut interest rates in october. The strength of the AUGUST numbers, despite showing a substantial decrease in September, means that the fed will probably NOT cut interest rates in October. This is my guess as to where the "strength" is coming from. In other words, the fed gets to remain a little hawkish a bit longer.

This is purely my speculation on the matter.

As for trades...I was sooo ready to push that BUY the GBP/USD button but as I was waiting for the news trade service to spit the numbers, I saw 20 pip spike, which made me hesitate when the numbers were actually spewed. When I heard the upwards revision number (and the guy talked REALLY fast), I literally froze thinking to myself: what the hell do I do with that??? Literally in that second as it hovered right at the 1.8875 mark, the price started coming down, so I realized that buying was probably not going to be an option. 20 seconds later, we were at equilibrium and hovering. My initial thought was that we were going to stay there as, for me, the numbers kind of nullified each other. Then the price moved towards the magic 00 at 1.8800. So I got ready my SELL button. Right as it broke 1.8800, I pushed the SELL button and immediately got requoted...Thinking that was cosmic Karma, I packed it in feeling VERY fortunate that I didn't push the BUY button when the price moved and WAITED to actually HEAR the numbers. I could have easily been whipped on this one.

In retro-spect, I wish I could have analyzed the numbers more quickly. Unfortunately with a huge upwards revision and a big miss on the estimate to the downside, I couldn't help but feel too neutral on the trade...which probably should have led me to not even waste my time waiting for the push below 1.8800...but I figured if there was going to be movement, the momentum was down...so I figured I'd try to catch the break.

So, lessons learned:
- the audio news was no faster than sirius CNBC...they were literally talking at the same time. What I did like was that audio news guy was giving a countdown. (about 5 minutes left, folks...we're 20 seconds away...etc)
- the headline stream was actually 10 seconds faster than the guy could talk as the stream posted the numbers and revision WHILE the guy was still reading the initial sentence.
- It's better to have a positive revision AND inline estimates - or - a downwards revision and strike below estimates for a more confident trade

Do I regret not being in? sure...but i just as easily could have gone the other way.
  • #102
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:42am Oct 6, 2006 9:42am
Quoting experiment_bg
FF today: 15:31 (GMT+3)
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>3:30pm</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Nonfarm Employment Change</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...sc/mi_high.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>51K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>125K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>128K</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_2738 align=middle>[read]</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>

CNBC TV - 188K (15:30:20sec) (GMT+3) realtime!!!

SORRY, NEVER AGAIN I WILL NOT BELIEVE TO FF!!!
IF You want to trade the news, DON'T believe to this data, they are NOT RELIABLE!!!!!!!!!!
Dude...you're SOOOO not cool by bashing this place on your first post, my angry brother.

BK already addressed the issue...you need to be a little more attentive. I think a public apology is in order to the hard working folks at the FF who even provide this information to you, free of charge, mind you...
  • #103
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:42am Oct 6, 2006 9:42am
Quoting BurgerKing
Who else made a win? Seems that all the trade report were negatives.

Not to brag about it but conservative TP made big difference.

It was unfortunate that I dont know the "power" of a revised number. I was totally UNAWARE of the revision either and was simply dumbfounded when I saw it reversing. Then I remembered a month or two ago of a news wire agency making wrong broadcast of a number causing everyone to reverse. So I thought - WTF did I see the release number wrong? was it really 50K (as announced at TTN)? I quickly turned to CNBC TV, saw it 50K; I asked my wife what does she see - "50 thousand"...

Hindsight: "If I only know, I should have pursued shorting GBPUSD till it hurts.."

Oh well... Lucky, conservative TP saved the day.
Good for you BK! I was also unaware of revisions being published at the same time of the new NFP data. I'm just glad that I didn't have to learn this the hard way. This morning I was considering skipping some classes in order to be able to trade the NFP. I don't know why I didn't skip classes, but I feel good for having done the "right" thing... LOL!

I'll be looking to short the $ if this wild run ends.
  • #104
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:46am Oct 6, 2006 9:46am
What does +/- 50,000 jobs mean to a country of 300million? Nada!
Look at the daily chart (trend) of the GBP/USD before today~
Attached Image
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #105
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:49am Oct 6, 2006 9:49am
hello, i made 51 pips from the report. 30+ on the upward spike and then saw that there was a huge -ve spread on the broker, so i made 20 something pips simply buy buying and then selling immediately.
i think the thing is to get in before the spike and ride the wave. How to do it though, is the difficult part .I saw that there was slight upward movement on the Euro a few sec before the release so I went long on EUR/USD at 8:29:50 (10 seconds before the news), and was able to ride the whole wave of aprox 30 pips. should have stayed and cashed in on the wave down but the platform froze!!!!
just wanted to share what happened to me.
thanks
faddy.
learn something everyday
  • #106
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:50am Oct 6, 2006 9:50am
Quoting danegg7
hmmmm, if August was 188k and September was 51k, isn't this substantial deceleration in job growth?
So after turning in for the night I realised I could not sleep over NFP.

So I read the news BEFORE checking prices... my first thought was...

OK, so they revised last month... so now, instead of an over 50% drop in employment... now this 51k figure means the figure dropped over 80%!

So I thought excitedly: gosh this must mean the dollar must have suffered a beating... and in optimistic scenario, everything retraced back to equilibrium and it's back at where I saw it before NFP.

So logged into my Northfinance, and ... well you know the story.

I don't get it This isn't optimism on the market, this is... well this is forex so glad I didn't go long! but whoever foresaw all of this. Well, hundreds of pips to profit from!
  • #107
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:54am Oct 6, 2006 9:54am
experiment_bg - REVISIONS!! Something you should learn about before trading something like NFP. FF figures were spot on.

MBT got me in the trade immediately, but wouldn't let me out when started to head south!! Managed to exit with only 10pip loss, so not too bad. Then went short so made it back and some more.... phew
  • #108
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:55am Oct 6, 2006 9:55am
Well, this one hurts. I'm kicking myself because I actually shorted the pound and then got out after it spiked up...only to see it drop for what would have been 120+ pips.

I'm in anguish right now and I'm a non-drinker.

Tough lesson today. Tough week over all. Monday's cable spike had my thinking all screwed up.
  • #109
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:55am Oct 6, 2006 9:55am
today is a terrible day for my trade !!!
  • #110
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:59am Oct 6, 2006 9:59am
Quoting forexprincess
experiment_bg - REVISIONS!! Something you should learn about before trading something like NFP. FF figures were spot on.

MBT got me in the trade immediately, but wouldn't let me out when started to head south!! Managed to exit with only 10pip loss, so not too bad. Then went short so made it back and some more.... phew
That's what I should've done too. But I compounded my itchy trigger finger with numb inaction afterwards.

For the record, I don't hold FF responsible for the screwed up previous - they're just reporting what they get from their sources.

Anyone buying cable yet? Will it even retrace?
  • #111
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:00am Oct 6, 2006 10:00am
Halloween came a little early for all you trick or treaters.

Hal·low·een also Hal·low·e'en <dl><dd>October 31, celebrated in the United States, Canada, and the British Isles by children going door to door while wearing costumes and begging treats and playing pranks.</dd></dl>
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #112
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:03am Oct 6, 2006 10:03am
It paid to be listening to Bloomberg radio. They explained what the revision meant-myself-I didn't know what was going on. If a trader had been listening and followed them, there was plenty of opportunity to make a healthy profit.

To me, the revision meant an even more negative jobs report-just the opposite of what it really meant.

As far as traders buying into this rumor-well that didn't happen. I guess the NFP is just too risky of a report to do that with. It's probably too hard for serious investors to research, as the BLS surveys over 400,000 businesses to get their number. So, I will still watch for traders buying into the consensus prior to a report being released, just not for the NFP. We'll see how that goes...
  • #113
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:06am Oct 6, 2006 10:06am
Quoting forexprincess
experiment_bg - REVISIONS!! Something you should learn about before trading something like NFP. FF figures were spot on.

MBT got me in the trade immediately, but wouldn't let me out when started to head south!! Managed to exit with only 10pip loss, so not too bad. Then went short so made it back and some more.... phew
What's interesting here-is that another broker's performance was exactly the same-getting in was easy, but getting out was another question. Probably, all of these retail broker's performance is pretty much the same...
  • #114
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:07am Oct 6, 2006 10:07am
Smart money will watch the 100 day moving average to see if it holds.

Jokers like Newstraderfx are already trying to explain themselves and getting ready ready for next month. Laughable!


Quoting NewstraderFX
It paid to be listening to Bloomberg radio. They explained what the revision meant-myself-I didn't know what was going on. If a trader had been listening and followed them, there was plenty of opportunity to make a healthy profit.

To me, the revision meant an even more negative jobs report-just the opposite of what it really meant.

As far as traders buying into this rumor-well that didn't happen. I guess the NFP is just too risky of a report to do that with. It's probably too hard for serious investors to research, as the BLS surveys over 400,000 businesses to get their number. So, I will still watch for traders buying into the consensus prior to a report being released, just not for the NFP. We'll see how that goes...
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #115
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:10am Oct 6, 2006 10:10am
Quoting forexprincess
experiment_bg - REVISIONS!! Something you should learn about before trading something like NFP. FF figures were spot on.

MBT got me in the trade immediately, but wouldn't let me out when started to head south!! Managed to exit with only 10pip loss, so not too bad. Then went short so made it back and some more.... phew
Thank you forexprincess, i understand that the mistake is with me, and my broker, so my great apology to ForexFactory.

p.s. The anger in me is because NorthFinance close my connection when i was 50pips+ and can't exit, so when they came back, my real account was 0.00USD, and my stop order was NOT executed. This is why i react like that.
I trade for a living and this was very..........bad...........
  • #116
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:15am Oct 6, 2006 10:15am
Quoting summitfx
Smart money will watch the 100 day moving average to see if it holds.

Jokers like Newstraderfx are already trying to explain themselves and getting ready ready for next month. Laughable!
Nothing to explain here-my opinion was wrong. I'm not blaming that on anything but my own inexperience. Looking back at all the info, there was nothing about revisions to the prior number being released at the same time and no explanation of what a revision could mean. Maybe I missed it-but did you post that anywhere?
  • #117
  • Edited 10:22am Oct 6, 2006 10:18am | Edited 10:22am
experiment bg - bad luck, but stories like that are far too common when taking trades like NFP. It's a dangerous game, which sometimes goes bad - I'm sure the same has happened to all of us on here at some point. NFP days are typically days when fortunes are made and lost - sorry you lost yours.
  • #118
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:22am Oct 6, 2006 10:22am
We all mistakes- You write so intelligently about the subject and then this...

Quoting NewstraderFX
Nothing to explain here-my opinion was wrong. I'm not blaming that on anything but my own inexperience. Looking back at all the info, there was nothing about revisions to the prior number being released at the same time and no explanation of what a revision could mean. Maybe I missed it-but did you post that anywhere?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #119
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:24am Oct 6, 2006 10:24am
no trades for me today. am going to spend times doing other things to clear my mind of forex. this scarred me LOL trades will start again next week
  • #120
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:26am Oct 6, 2006 10:26am
Are you not a trader?


[quote=NewstraderFX] If a trader had been listening and followed them, there was plenty of opportunity to make a healthy profit.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
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