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US and Euro stocks mounting one more rally before crashing?

  • #61
  • Edited 10:37am Aug 21, 2018 9:51am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I wish you were right but a 9-year bull run will take a bit more than 10 days to get shut down I am afraid. I would rather not catch the top and use my capital elsewhere while the weekly/monthly PA shows the beginning of a down swing. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent...
In case you hadn't noticed, it wouldn't be ten days, Dow peaked on the 29th Jan. This, if it gets back up to around 26,000 give or take a couple of hundred pips or so, would be the testing of an important potential lower high resistance level, from which, it is possible if it holds, equities would begin their next leg down, not to see these dizzy heights again for a very long time. It is a possibility, going by my own analysis, nothing more.

I ain't selling anything...just putting it out there.
  • #62
  • Aug 22, 2018 2:05am Aug 22, 2018 2:05am
Dow dipped back sharply off of its weekly 76.4% last night. It'll be interesting to see if it can get above that today, or continue to come down!
  • #63
  • Aug 23, 2018 3:40am Aug 23, 2018 3:40am
No, it couldn't, at least not yesterday.

For me, this weekly 76.4% is a massive level for the Dow, and if it fails to break above it this week, and leaves a bearish weekly candle, we could see some big selling for the final week in August. There is still room for it to move up to my higher resistance levels posted above, but for now anyway, the big money is watching this 76.4%, and will be ready to sell hard once the resistance is confirmed.

Anyone else want to add their views, whether you think US stocks are poised for new highs or whatever, don't be shy.
  • #64
  • Aug 23, 2018 4:06am Aug 23, 2018 4:06am
Quoting cat
No, it couldn't, at least not yesterday. For me, this weekly 76.4% is a massive level for the Dow, and if it fails to break above it this week, and leaves a bearish weekly candle, we could see some big selling for the final week in August. There is still room for it to move up to my higher resistance levels posted above, but for now anyway, the big money is watching this 76.4%, and will be ready to sell hard once the resistance is confirmed. Anyone else want to add their views, whether you think US stocks are poised for new highs or whatever, don't...
I agree that the 76.4% seems to be of interest to big money, I am on the sidelines for now in any case and will wait for a weekly confirmation even if I don't get at the top and have to incur some serious DD depending on how the Dow starts its fall when the time comes.

On a side note, there seems to be some correlation between the Dow and JPY as JPY is viewed as some kind of safe heaven. I consider it my canary in the mine for lack of a better proxy for now and I thought it would be worth bringing it up here.
  • #65
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:21am Aug 23, 2018 8:21am
Looks like the Dow damn is about to burst. 1000 pips southward could be on from here, and then we'll see whether it looks set for further falls.
  • #66
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:27am Aug 23, 2018 8:27am
Quoting cat
Looks like the Dow damn is about to burst. 1000 pips southward could be on from here, and then we'll see whether it looks set for further falls.
Waiting for reaction on EMA20 H4
  • #67
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:30am Aug 23, 2018 8:30am
Though they might jack it up at the open...always a possibility with the Dow.
  • #68
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:42am Aug 23, 2018 8:42am
Quoting cat
Though they might jack it up at the open...always a possibility with the Dow.
Still some juice left for buyers to squeeze in my opinion... 850-870 deserves to be retested
  • #69
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:45am Aug 23, 2018 8:45am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Still some juice left for buyers to squeeze in my opinion... 850-870 deserves to be retested
Oh definitely, but it's peering over the edge of a cliff right now...it just needs a kick from behind!
  • #70
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:49am Aug 23, 2018 8:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} Oh definitely, but it's peering over the edge of a cliff right now...it just needs a kick from behind!
It seems to me that Trump's trade wars with China is favorably perceived for equities for now. Unless evidence shows otherwise, it may continue this way until it doesn't. The weekly looks solid, I would actually buy at these levels if I wasn't that prejudiced against the Dow
  • #71
  • Aug 23, 2018 8:58am Aug 23, 2018 8:58am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} It seems to me that Trump's trade wars with China is favorably perceived for equities for now. Unless evidence shows otherwise, it may continue this way until it doesn't. The weekly looks solid, I would actually buy at these levels if I wasn't that prejudiced against the Dow
Well I wouldn't be buying to hold long term up here that's for sure. The weekly looks solid yes, but we are now at or close to a make or break level which the Dow will either break through to either form a double top, or make new highs, or it will be held, not to suddenly collapse, but to continue the build up to the collapse which I believe will be during the Trump Presidency, collapse being from 40-60% I would say. My top level posted above is 26,200-300, and above that we are into either double top or new high territory, so there is still room for some more upward movement for me. This 76.4% is a big test though.

We do need some catalyst though to drive this down hard, because although the technicals are favourable, or soon will be, it needs something to send it on its way.
  • #72
  • Aug 23, 2018 9:00am Aug 23, 2018 9:00am
The Dow's retrace to the 76.4 fib level off the Feb low and yesterdays retrace to the 76.4 level from the overnight low on Tues/Weds before price turned south again yesterday has a nice symmetry to it. Totally meaningless of course but it would be a shame to spoil the picture!

The daily pinbars on Tues and Weds this week also look to have formed at the culmination of a 5 wave move up from the June 28th low. But who knows? If all the price action since early Feb this year has been corrective, it's been a very tortuous wave pattern. Any Ellioticians around to do an analysis?
  • #73
  • Aug 23, 2018 9:04am Aug 23, 2018 9:04am
Quoting cat
{quote} We do need some catalyst though to drive this down hard, because although the technicals are favourable, or soon will be, it needs something to send it on its way.
Something like this perhaps..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45285585
  • #74
  • Aug 23, 2018 9:07am Aug 23, 2018 9:07am
Quoting cat
{quote} Well I wouldn't be buying to hold long term up here that's for sure. The weekly looks solid yes, but we are now at or close to a make or break level which the Dow will either break through to either form a double top, or make new highs, or it will be held, not to suddenly collapse, but to continue the build up to the collapse which I believe will be during the Trump Presidency, collapse being from 40-60% I would say. My top level posted above is 26,200-300, and above that we are into either double top or new high territory, so there is still...
EURJPY and USDJPY are on the rise on the weekly, it may sound naive but I would expect some weakness on either pair before considering a short on the Dow. Let me know if my thinking is flawed, but it is what happened in Jan/Feb this year
  • #75
  • Aug 23, 2018 9:17am Aug 23, 2018 9:17am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} EURJPY and USDJPY are on the rise on the weekly, it may sound naive but I would expect some weakness on either pair before considering a short on the Dow. Let me know if my thinking is flawed, but it is what happened in Jan/Feb this year
I can't really help, as I'm not big on correlation, I just trade what I see in front of me as the soundest rule to follow. You may be right though.
  • #76
  • Aug 23, 2018 9:23am Aug 23, 2018 9:23am
Quoting cat
{quote} I can't really help, as I'm not big on correlation, I just trade what I see in front of me as the soundest rule to follow. You may be right though.
Correlation only makes sense if the guy with the most money believes in it, which is not my case...
  • #77
  • Aug 23, 2018 9:35am Aug 23, 2018 9:35am
Quoting cat
{quote} Something like this perhaps.. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45285585
"Correspondents say it is unlikely Mr Trump's opponents would try to impeach him before November's mid-term elections."

I tend to agree on November, although I wouldn't rely on Trump's impeachment to really move the market. Pence wouldn't change Trump's course of action, so not the catalyst I would expect. Some big corporation or asset class needs to take a big hit to change the tide in my opinion
  • #78
  • Aug 23, 2018 10:00am Aug 23, 2018 10:00am
For those viewing this thread for perhaps the first time, I for one am not expecting the big market crash imminently, as I did stress above. For me this is a sort of 'count down to the big one' thread, so I see the build up as having begun on Jan 29th this year, and so as long as the price on the Dow does not make new highs, the process I see as having begun. This is why the current level, up to and a bit beyond 26,000, is so crucial, because if it holds and falls 1000 pips or so, I think it will be pretty difficult to get up to these current levels again.

Catalyst? Who knows, there are any number of things that could rock the markets right now, but from past observation, the technicals lead the way, as they did in 2007/8, and then you get something that shocks the markets which confirms the technicals. As traders we know this, though those who are not familiar with charts will always say ' no one could have foreseen it ', which is never true. The 2008 collapse was screaming sell long before Layman Bros and Bear Stearns collapsed.
  • #79
  • Aug 23, 2018 10:10am Aug 23, 2018 10:10am
Well this degree of excess should tip the balance if there's nothing else to provide a catalyst:

ifhttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-22/san-francisco-poop-patrollers-make-185000
  • #80
  • Aug 23, 2018 10:28am Aug 23, 2018 10:28am
Quoting tomase
Well this degree of excess should tip the balance if there's nothing else to provide a catalyst: ifhttps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-22/san-francisco-poop-patrollers-make-185000
Plan B i reckon.
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