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Attachments: NFP 10/6
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NFP 10/6

  • #81
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:45am Oct 6, 2006 9:45am
Quoting africanpip
"Just when I started gettiing all the answers the questions changed" I can't remember who said that.
And the point is....?
  • #82
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:46am Oct 6, 2006 9:46am
smart move is to not risk your capital during major news releases. unless you had a 100 point SL, being short was not wise either.


Quoting raczekfx
I'm sure you wouldn't call it stupid, if you were short both fiber and cable right after the news. Why weren't you.?
Market can't be that stupid after all if it 'outsmarts' 95% of intelligent people.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #83
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:48am Oct 6, 2006 9:48am
Quoting DePastino
How'd you fare today AP?
Not too good...I straddled the market and the initial long took me up but just missed my TP and I couldn't change in time. Then on the way down picked up my short but because all the talk was a long Euro I never really put much of a Profit limit on the short so that closed out giving me about $350 but I am still sitting in the red with my initial long position. Sweating out the last hours of an African Friday!

How'd you do?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #84
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:50am Oct 6, 2006 9:50am
Quoting raczekfx
I'm sure you wouldn't call it stupid, if you were short both fiber and cable right after the news. Why weren't you.?
Market can't be that stupid after all if it 'outsmarts' 95% of intelligent people.
I think I have read somewhere that after a shock, market/price will get back to its equilibrium level... and then countinue with its old movement like there was no shock at all...

See... market shocked by the 50k number and then saw the revisions...
Maybe the large speculators think that the 50k employment is a rubish...?
  • #85
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:50am Oct 6, 2006 9:50am
Quoting summitfx
smart move is to not risk your capital during major news releases. unless you had a 100 point SL, being short was not wise either.
No doubt. But it's not the whipsaw that bothers me so much as the "revision" that caused all this in the first place. The brokers are lighting their cigars with rolled-up c notes this morning.
  • #86
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 9:58am Oct 6, 2006 9:58am
Excuse me guys .. Will someone tell me logicaly :

" Why is the dollar UP while the news was BAD for the dollar " ???!!!

Need answer plz so i can understand how it goes in the future .

Thanx .
  • #87
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:00am Oct 6, 2006 10:00am
The revision is obviously an attempt to make President George W. Bush and the republican party look good due to recent bad news surrounding a sex scandal of congressional pages. I guess if the last 2 years of the presidency has a positive outcome (gain in the USD), the country might want a republican candidate for the next term??

I didn't trade the NFP this month. I overslept.

Anyway, revisions don't usually get announced so soon. Strange that the United States should accuse another country of manipulating currency prices when the United States revise data to manipulate its currency.
  • #88
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:04am Oct 6, 2006 10:04am
Quoting coolhell
Excuse me guys .. Will someone tell me logicaly :

" Why is the dollar UP while the news was BAD for the dollar " ???!!!

Need answer plz so i can understand how it goes in the future .

Thanx .


Last months number was revised up 60k to 188K. So the two months combined average out to about 120k. Anything over 100k is usually thought of as dollar positive. So this months number isn't all that bad...
  • #89
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:05am Oct 6, 2006 10:05am
Quoting coolhell
Excuse me guys .. Will someone tell me logicaly :

" Why is the dollar UP while the news was BAD for the dollar " ???!!!

Need answer plz so i can understand how it goes in the future .

Thanx .

Sorry chap. I don't believe logic applies here so I don't think there is a logical answer. People will speculate on the reasons to satisfy there own questions. Unless some credible information emerges as to the reason for this behaviour I suggest you join me with a bottle of JW black (second neat) and solve the world's other problems.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #90
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:12am Oct 6, 2006 10:12am
hmmmm, if August was 188k and September was 51k, isn't this substantial deceleration in job growth?
  • #91
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:16am Oct 6, 2006 10:16am
I am short the GPB from 1.88 and 1.8740. I predicted the breakout to the downside (Thursday morning) and can post my IM 's with my trade buddy if someone can help me do it. My reason is simple. With the stock market moving into new territory and oil and gold coming down it is a no brainer that big money will find its way to where the returns are greater than can be found anywhere else currently. The flow into the US equities markets will create a large demand for dollars thus the move down. A breakout of the range will further fuel the move. Thus we have volitility that we all want and need to trade this market.

Sorry to all who got whipsawed in the NFP it has happened to all of us who have ever traded NFP.

Just my opinon and subject to change without notice or a huge reversal whichever comes first.
  • #92
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:16am Oct 6, 2006 10:16am
lol calm down everyone!

ever heard of buy the rumour sell the news?

thats exactly what it was.

oh, that an all the other reasons given :

i managed to clock in 15 pips after a mad dash to get out so, meh,...

on to the next one
  • #93
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:21am Oct 6, 2006 10:21am
Before Forex Factory turns in to a Ministry of Misinformation here is a quick note to all on this thread:

The price action is very volatile, yes, but please don't t attribute this to collusion, manipulation, or any thing else mysterious. Ngdaniel - the report is not created or influenced by political will - unless this is a metaphysical implication ?...that would be way cool though. Anyway, revisions also come out at exactly the same time as the main labour report, and this is always the case.

The NFP is a complex report - you have to look at the headline, the revisions, hours worked, pay, and the unemployment rate (this is determined by the household report, and so can diverge with the headline numbers).

This is why HSBC say:' A very mixed and confusing report - it was both very weak and very strong.'

For your information HSBC conclude with:

Overall, this report has news for both economic bulls and bears - big time!
The revisions clearly point to a stronger job creation machine in the past (and more consistent with the declining trend in the unemployment rate, which is not affected by the revisions because it is calculated from the household survey which is not being revised), and bulls can extrapolate this trend by noting that initial claims are still low and tax receipts are still surging so the underlying firm trend remains well in place.
The bears can point to the significant loss of momentum in this report (with all the other recent data too), and on a broader point, can argue a boom-bust case: yes, the jobs party was much better that we thought, but that means the hangover is now going to be a lot worse - a harder landing will be the end result.

Hope this is useful. Sorry if I sounded a little annoyed to start with, but there is so much unsubstantiated crap on the internet on the topic of forex - it's easy for experienced traders to ignore it, but new traders can be easily misguided by this neverending stream of nonsense.
"Always bet on black"
  • #94
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:24am Oct 6, 2006 10:24am
Also, this may be interesting:

However, the BLS announced that the benchmark revisions will raise the level of payrolls by 810,000 for March 2006 (the adjustment will be formally implemented in the Jan 2007 report). This is an unusually big upward revision (+0.6%). This means that the 2 million jobs that were created over the year to March 2006 will be revised up to 2.8 million - around double the trend rate - a monthly average of 236,000 jobs instead of 169,000.
"Always bet on black"
  • #95
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:28am Oct 6, 2006 10:28am
I was at college up until now and I thank the heavens I was unable to trade at the time the news was announced. Looking at the chart of the GBP/USD I think it's safe to say there is a high probability I would have gotten burnt today.

Is it customary to release the revisions at the same time with the new NFP data?

Also, can anyone confirm that there was no lock out of the entry orders before the news announcement at FXCM? Someone told me about this and I find it hard to believe.

Anyway have a nice day trading everyone! Also enjoy your well deserved weekend!

EDIT:

I see abobtrader already answered my first question. Thanks!
  • #96
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:30am Oct 6, 2006 10:30am
Quoting abobtrader
Before Forex Factory turns in to a Ministry of Misinformation here is a quick note to all on this thread:

The price action is very volatile, yes, but please don't t attribute this to collusion, manipulation, or any thing else mysterious. Ngdaniel - the report is not created or influenced by political will - unless this is a metaphysical implication ?...that would be way cool though. Anyway, revisions also come out at exactly the same time as the main labour report, and this is always the case.

The NFP is a complex report - you have to look at the headline, the revisions, hours worked, pay, and the unemployment rate (this is determined by the household report, and so can diverge with the headline numbers).

This is why HSBC say:' A very mixed and confusing report - it was both very weak and very strong.'

For your information HSBC conclude with:

Overall, this report has news for both economic bulls and bears - big time!
The revisions clearly point to a stronger job creation machine in the past (and more consistent with the declining trend in the unemployment rate, which is not affected by the revisions because it is calculated from the household survey which is not being revised), and bulls can extrapolate this trend by noting that initial claims are still low and tax receipts are still surging so the underlying firm trend remains well in place.
The bears can point to the significant loss of momentum in this report (with all the other recent data too), and on a broader point, can argue a boom-bust case: yes, the jobs party was much better that we thought, but that means the hangover is now going to be a lot worse - a harder landing will be the end result.

Hope this is useful. Sorry if I sounded a little annoyed to start with, but there is so much unsubstantiated crap on the internet on the topic of forex - it's easy for experienced traders to ignore it, but new traders can be easily misguided by this neverending stream of nonsense.
Thanks for taking the time to post this. But it just seems as though something has been manipulated today.
  • #97
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:30am Oct 6, 2006 10:30am
Who else made a win? Seems that all the trade report were negatives.

Not to brag about it but conservative TP made big difference.

It was unfortunate that I dont know the "power" of a revised number. I was totally UNAWARE of the revision either and was simply dumbfounded when I saw it reversing. Then I remembered a month or two ago of a news wire agency making wrong broadcast of a number causing everyone to reverse. So I thought - WTF did I see the release number wrong? was it really 50K (as announced at TTN)? I quickly turned to CNBC TV, saw it 50K; I asked my wife what does she see - "50 thousand"...

Hindsight: "If I only know, I should have pursued shorting GBPUSD till it hurts.."

Oh well... Lucky, conservative TP saved the day.
  • #98
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:34am Oct 6, 2006 10:34am
FF today: 15:31 (GMT+3)
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>3:30pm</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Nonfarm Employment Change</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...sc/mi_high.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>51K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>125K</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>128K</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_2738 align=middle>[read]</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>

CNBC TV - 188K (15:30:20sec) (GMT+3) realtime!!!

SORRY, NEVER AGAIN I WILL NOT BELIEVE TO FF!!!
IF You want to trade the news, DON'T believe to this data, they are NOT RELIABLE!!!!!!!!!!
  • #99
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:36am Oct 6, 2006 10:36am
Ok.. News frenzy is over.. .Time for Mouteki...
  • #100
  • Quote
  • Oct 6, 2006 10:37am Oct 6, 2006 10:37am
Quoting experiment_bg
FF today: 15:31 (GMT+3)
<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1">3:30pm</td><td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td><td class="alt1">Nonfarm Employment Change</td><td class="alt1" align="center">http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...sc/mi_high.gif</td><td class="alt1" align="center">51K</td><td class="alt1" align="center">125K</td><td class="alt1" align="center">128K</td><td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2738" align="center">[read]</td></tr></thead><tbody></tbody></table>

CNBC TV - 188K (15:30:20sec) (GMT+3) realtime!!!

SORRY, NEVER AGAIN I WILL NOT BELIEVE TO FF!!!
IF You want to trade the news, DON'T believe to this data, they are NOT RELIABLE!!!!!!!!!!
?? what are you barking at?

51K IS the real number.
188K was for the September 1's revised number.

Get some education. Get a dictionary and understand what "revision" mean.
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