USD/JPY Discussion

Usd/Jpy is consolidating within the range between 110.56 to 111.50 ahead of BoJ this week. Only break out will determine the direction of the pair.

I'd be happy if UJ consolidated itself up to 111.5, that's a $1800 profit trade for me. I'm keen for it to sustain above 111.140, that's my next main resistance using TL on hour chart.

well it's taking it's pretty time making up its mind. I will TP or short based on the blow out
NB.Closed my longs at 111.060

I'm short US/JP
using VSA as visible in the chart..

Closed at BE

Long US/JP
VSA as in the chart..

I hope we get to see clear direction by tomorrow.

Interesting developments in the JPY bond market over the short term, and with todays BOJ policy statement, should be interesting to see how the market responds.

From this chart seems the cross of 10 year and 30 year treasuries signals JPY weakness. But I suppose only time will tell. This could also explain the huge YEN shorts.

So everyone gets stopped out is the way it works....grrr

potential inverted head and shoulders

2¨18 Just shorted at 111.30

Yea.. I got stopped.. thereafter, re-entered :-)

I have pending to short at 111.50 . Previous shorts are intact and red fttb...

hoping this does not get creamed again!

The Bank of Japan confirmed last week’s rumours today and announced a change to its yield curve control strategy. It will now allow larger volatility of the 10y yield around its 0% target, while it still plans to counteract excessively rapid increases in the yields. However, the market reaction to last week’s media reports probably showed the central bankers that this adjustment left alone would result in an appreciation of the yen. This is probably why they not only made the yield target more flexible, but also introduced a forward guidance on their interest rates. It looks very much as if they followed the ECB’s example, as their European counterpart was faced with a similar dilemma only a short while ago. Back then, the ECB planned to reduce its bond purchases – a step which, we believe, was necessary for legal reasons – without, however, at the same time fuelling market expectations of a quick normalisation of monetary policy. The solution to this, as we know, was that it strengthened its forward guidance and explicitly ruled out rate hikes before summer 2019. And it successfully dampened market rate expectations (apparently too much for the taste of some Council members) and caused the euro to depreciate. In a bid to learn from this winning strategy, the BoJ has chosen a similar path. It, too, is now explicitly stating that it will keep its interest rate at the current, low level “for an extended period of time”. At first sight, the BoJ’s strategy seems to have paid off: the yen depreciated shortly after the decision. However, the joy was short-lived. USD-JPY has returned to its pre-decision level by now. I believe the reason is clear. The BoJ’s more flexible yield target suggests that the bank is concerned about the banking sector, which is suffering from the flat yield curve. That is why it is now willing to permit a stronger increase in 10y yields, which will, in turn, prop up the JPY. Critical observers may argue that the BoJ will also accept stronger downward movements. However, there have not been any problems from that side so far, which is why it is clear that yields – if anything – will rise. Not least as the adjustment is an obvious invitation to speculators, who will now test the BoJ’s pain threshold. As a result, the bank will be repeatedly obliged to intervene in the market in order to prevent a quicker rise in yields. As I see it, the BoJ has made life more difficult for itself with today’s decision.

still waiting on this for scalp....not seeing anything new on the board....

took little profit, strongly think it was too early..

i think it is time to buy YEN..Fake resistance moves over 111.50 for my view.

Fed may change the language at next week.i am following TRUMPS words.

Im still bullish bias from last week, long got stopped out, maybe entered the trade too early. Could be a long opportunity soon.

Uj drop 109 soon

I suggest better start to make shorts from 111.85. Its exit from daily fibonacci. I was waiting three days when USD/JPY reachs 111.50 from 110.90 and now its there.