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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #463,041
  • Jul 27, 2018 10:17am Jul 27, 2018 10:17am
Quoting akim0895
{quote} nice up move now a speech from trump lets wait..
close for some green pips
till monday
just for a cup of coffee...
  • #463,042
  • Jul 27, 2018 11:09am Jul 27, 2018 11:09am
Quoting thir13enth
{quote} Fell asleep, lol. Updated GU and EU charts below. Bias is short and will change once both 3230 and 1745 are broken. GU: 3105 is annoyingly holding, it was broken but a quick reaction up is there. Depending on US data later, I'm expecting 3000 before this week ends (3170-3180 level needs a clean pass). Else, waiting game to re-position mini sell lots. Normal lots reserved around 3220-3230 level. But seems 3200-3220 might be the highest we can go now, above 3230 is watching game for me as 3260-3280 is still there to resist. {image}...
Sad 3000 was not in sight.

3130 starts resisting, my ideal close for the week is below 3105.
Next week, will still be looking for bears.
First clues I'm looking at are the weekend gap and the 3130 level.

Happy weekend!
  • #463,043
  • Jul 27, 2018 11:13am Jul 27, 2018 11:13am
Quoting masudsardar
{image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.USD.TRADE.jpg Size: 65 KB
to err is human
  • #463,044
  • Jul 27, 2018 11:26am Jul 27, 2018 11:26am
Quoting aa4fx
I just sold 3129
I took this out and the one from 3113 while I was away ...
  • #463,045
  • Jul 27, 2018 12:21pm Jul 27, 2018 12:21pm
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} I took this out and the one from 3113 while I was away ...
sold 3106
  • #463,046
  • Jul 27, 2018 2:08pm Jul 27, 2018 2:08pm
Quoting navk
{quote} The probability I am looking. It has made a bottom and moved up by 40 pips. The ADR for this pair is 100 pips. It is friday so it should move up by atleast 30 pips to make it a day. For 70 pips ADR to complete, if it wants to go down, it has to test bottom of the day and break..... on a dead friday.
Thanks for telling the market how to arrive there as I am not that technical
I currently have two new sell @ 3106/16 so that the market will not fill useless going to 1.3054 where my tp is.
  • #463,047
  • Jul 27, 2018 2:21pm Jul 27, 2018 2:21pm
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} Thanks for telling the market how to arrive there as I am not that technical I currently have two new sell @ 3106/16 so that the market will not fill useless going to 1.3054 where my tp is.
it starts to get crowded, another sell @ 3111, will see ...
  • #463,048
  • Jul 27, 2018 3:47pm Jul 27, 2018 3:47pm
I just closed the latest sell ...
Maybe it's a general issue, my flight from tonight has delay too.
  • #463,049
  • Jul 27, 2018 5:53pm Jul 27, 2018 5:53pm
Quoting aa4fx
I just closed the latest sell ... Maybe it's a general issue, my flight from tonight has delay too.
  • #463,050
  • Jul 27, 2018 7:09pm Jul 27, 2018 7:09pm
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} Thanks for telling the market how to arrive there as I am not that technical I currently have two new sell @ 3106/16 so that the market will not fill useless going to 1.3054 where my tp is.
you will slowly understand many things.

Until you learn , blow minimum no. of accounts. ( in any case retailers like us will blow away some accounts ).

After you feel confident in whatever you follow ( systems ) keep bigger capital, trade small lots with no stop loss ( only emergency stop to face brexit kind of situations )
Intraday only.
  • #463,051
  • Jul 28, 2018 3:41am Jul 28, 2018 3:41am
Quoting navk
{quote} you will slowly understand many things. Until you learn , blow minimum no. of accounts. ( in any case retailers like us will blow away some accounts ). After you feel confident in whatever you follow ( systems ) keep bigger capital, trade small lots with no stop loss ( only emergency stop to face brexit kind of situations )
Interesting.

Personally I would never trade without a stop, in fact the stop is the first thing I write on the order ticket.

When we write stops we know exactly what our risk is and the sooner we adjust them to break even the better. If the stop is hit then the trade was wrong in the first place.
  • #463,052
  • Jul 28, 2018 7:15am Jul 28, 2018 7:15am
Quoting navk
{quote} you will slowly understand many things. Until you learn , blow minimum no. of accounts. ( in any case retailers like us will blow away some accounts ). After you feel confident in whatever you follow ( systems ) keep bigger capital, trade small lots with no stop loss ( only emergency stop to face brexit kind of situations )
I understand where you might be coming from.
I trade smaller lots and rely on market structure to tell me when my analysis is wrong.
When daily, (although more usually weekly) barriers are broken on a candle closed basis and the structure is no longer relevant to my market bias, then I know to get out.
I still struggle at times with getting greedy and placing too many trades (meaning I sometimes bail out early on what would have been a successful trade), but that will come with more experience trading this approach.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #463,053
  • Jul 28, 2018 7:40am Jul 28, 2018 7:40am
This is quite astonishing

Except for a couple of days in late Feb, early March...,
The red line on the 18th Dec, represents where the majority of FF traders began shorting the Pound.
The blue line on the 20th April shows where most starting going long.




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #463,054
  • Edited 10:09pm Jul 28, 2018 11:34am | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Interesting. Personally I would never trade without a stop, in fact the stop is the first thing I write on the order ticket. When we write stops we know exactly what our risk is and the sooner we adjust them to break even the better. If the stop is hit then the trade was wrong in the first place.
Theoretically yes, I agree with you.

But then can one find accurate entry? Some experts advise that fix stop loss, and if you loose 4 trades and win 7 trades you will end up as winner overall.

Is that possible consistently ?

In my opinion, one experienced trader can find out a reversal point at least with 50 % accuracy.

I can find out reversal is nearing, may be now or may be after 30 pips or may be after 70 pips or may be after 100 pips ( only some times )

If this being the case, why should I fix stop loss and give my money to broker ? Personally I have given more money to brokers by fixing stop loss ( accurate entry )

My account is big, I manage risk, start with small lots to trade, why should I fix stop loss and give my money to broker ? I know very well, supports and resistances have no meaning and bound to be broken. I also know that at some point of time, it has to make reversal but not necessarily at support and resistance.

Of late ( by not fixing stop loss ) my trades have been sucessful.

Only time will tell. But emergency stop ? I would say yes.

Brexit is known volatility , but CHF ? hmm..
Intraday only.
  • #463,055
  • Jul 28, 2018 11:41am Jul 28, 2018 11:41am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I understand where you might be coming from. I trade smaller lots and rely on market structure to tell me when my analysis is wrong. When daily, (although more usually weekly) barriers are broken on a candle closed basis and the structure is no longer relevant to my market bias, then I know to get out. I still struggle at times with getting greedy and placing too many trades (meaning I sometimes bail out early on what would have been a successful trade), but that will come with more experience trading this approach.
My answer is buy the over sold and sell the over bought with out stop.

I have been able to find over sold and over bought with 20 to 100 pips + or -.

As long as I trade small lots with bigger capital, why should I fix stop loss and get it hit , and give my money to broker?
Intraday only.
  • #463,056
  • Edited 12:15pm Jul 28, 2018 12:00pm | Edited 12:15pm
A mentor to me said :

1) I will not loose my money if I trade with 1: 10 leverage. In fact he challenged me to loose all of my capital with 1 : 10 leverage.

2) I should trade with bigger capital with smaller leverage and lots for not loosing my money.

Considering the amount of time we spend and internet, electricity charges etc higher capital is required to make reasonable income.

Not 400 $ profit with 1000 $ capital on the first day of trading and then loosing all on the second day.

My mentor advice :

Systems make 20 % success.
Risk management makes 30 % success.
Emotion control ( fear and greed ) makes balance 50 % success.
Intraday only.
  • #463,057
  • Jul 28, 2018 1:32pm Jul 28, 2018 1:32pm
Quoting navk
A mentor to me said : 1) I will not loose my money if I trade with 1: 10 leverage. In fact he challenged me to loose all of my capital with 1 : 10 leverage. 2) I should trade with bigger capital with smaller leverage and lots for not loosing my money. Considering the amount of time we spend and internet, electricity charges etc higher capital is required to make reasonable income. Not 400 $ profit with 1000 $ capital on the first day of trading and then loosing all on the
second day. My mentor advice : Systems make 20 % success. Risk management...
Very good guidelines. In a business where 100th of a cent could mean thousands up or down conservative money management will gain consistently over time as opposed to one huge gain and then gone.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #463,058
  • Jul 28, 2018 10:20pm Jul 28, 2018 10:20pm
Interesting points of view, mostly 100% different from my perspective.

In this business it is more a matter of what you can stop yourself from losing rather than what profits you can make.
  • #463,059
  • Jul 28, 2018 10:30pm Jul 28, 2018 10:30pm
It is 100 % different from many traders perspective, not only you. In fact many experts will view my perspective as newbie thinking. But remember, some ( only some ) experts will agree with my views.

How many of them teach you to trade with 1 : 10 leverage? If one can find out 7 times accurate entry out of 10, what is wrong in trading with 1 : 1000 leverage ?

As I said, consistent winning is not possible, this week 7 out of 10 winners will turn out to be 4 out of 10 winners next week.

The winning and loosing is based on certain systems we follow?

The systems can contribute to success only 20 %.
Intraday only.
  • #463,060
  • Jul 28, 2018 11:12pm Jul 28, 2018 11:12pm
Well one could argue these mute points all day long so we'll have to agree to disagree. You stick to your views and I'll stick to mine.

I will go to the grave saying it is a very dangerous practice to add to losing positions.
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