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  • #1,201
  • Jul 12, 2018 3:49am Jul 12, 2018 3:49am
i just love the try
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  • #1,202
  • Jul 12, 2018 4:15am Jul 12, 2018 4:15am
I m short too from 4.79 after b.albayrak's words....not a good entry though..he says cb independence is important...inflation is first priority..bla bla...

Hope that i profit this time i m in a losing streak from yesterday..

http://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/...alarda-bulundu
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,203
  • Jul 12, 2018 5:29am Jul 12, 2018 5:29am
Quoting blackwinter
I m short too from 4.79 after b.albayrak's words....not a good entry though..he says cb independence is important...inflation is first priority..bla bla... Hope that i profit this time i m in a losing streak from yesterday.. http://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/...alarda-bulundu

macd is turning up its hitting bottom
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  • #1,204
  • Edited 6:54am Jul 12, 2018 5:54am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} macd is turning up its hitting bottom
I hedged at 4.815...and 15m start to drop again

Edit: now going up..4.82
Edit 2: exited hedge buys for a few pips..dont like hedging strategy..usually i lose..but no down momentum now unfortunately..see how
Edit 3: closed my shorts too at 4.825 with loss..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,205
  • Jul 12, 2018 6:22am Jul 12, 2018 6:22am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I hedged at 4.815...and 15m start to drop again Edit: now going up..4.82 Edit 2: exited hedge buys for a few pips..dont like hedging strategy..usually i lose..but no down momentum now unfortunately..see how
yep mate i will watch and i still have sell limits in place
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  • #1,206
  • Jul 13, 2018 4:13pm Jul 13, 2018 4:13pm
Fitch Downgrades Turkey to 'BB'; Outlook Negative
https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10038017

This is bad news but i think it is already priced in..so, i dont expext more up because of this news..now around 4.86..i sold some from 4.8640..expecting some down in foolowing days..4.80s..maybe 4.70s until CB meeting..

Weekly and monthly chart are very bullish..as i said in my previous posts i m very bullish in usdtry in medium and long terms..but was expecting some correction in july after huge up movement..i was assuming Central bank and government will do necessary things to curb lira's drop..and despite my bullishness, i mistakenly shorted the pair this week many times somehow convinced that responsible people will do something, because weak lira make everthing worse in the economy..however so far they just watched and talked..no action from CB..and new economy minister is not choosen from market familiar politicians..it was like a shooting at his own foot..anyway, it was a bad week for my account..start very well..finish badly..anyway still survive and in profit overall...

I expect some bearish correction after huge weekly up and before CB meeting of 24 july..after that our direction is up again i think..i dont think government's priority is inflation..they dont want to sacrifice growth..and inflationist growth is ok for them..just look at monthly chart from 2012..you will see what i mean..inflationist growth model..so, due to higher inflation comparing to Usa each year, lira will be less valued every year against US dollar..as a result, we may see some correction but main trend is up..day trading shorts may be profitable sometimes, but swing shorts may lose a lot in usdtry and eurtry in following months..

Lastly, i expect some correction next week before central bank meeting but i may be wrong..this week, i lost in many short trades because of this expectations..we re expecting that politicians and CB will act responsibly and timely..but unfortunately, they dont and maybe wont..CB may not increase interest rates sufficiently..maybe 4.80s 4.90s are new normals for a few months then above 5.00..i dont know..i was expecting to reach these levels in august/september..but we came early thanks to dormant CB and careless politicians..4.50s and 4.60s looks too far..hope we go there so that we long again safely..but seems less likely..4.70 seems more possible for down correction..after CB meeting up again..my road plan..things are getting messy..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,207
  • Jul 15, 2018 10:53am Jul 15, 2018 10:53am
I have some shorts from this lvls.. we will see. I think EUR/USD could go up this week so we could see some down correction on TRY
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  • #1,208
  • Jul 15, 2018 5:01pm Jul 15, 2018 5:01pm
Quoting blackwinter
Fitch Downgrades Turkey to 'BB'; Outlook Negative https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10038017 This is bad news but i think it is already priced in..so, i dont expext more up because of this news..now around 4.86..i sold some from 4.8640..expecting some down in foolowing days..4.80s..maybe 4.70s until CB meeting.. Weekly and monthly chart are very bullish..as i said in my previous posts i m very bullish in usdtry in medium and long terms..but was expecting some correction in july after huge up movement..i was assuming Central bank and...
Closed my shorts at 4.8522...i will be waiting for Turkish unemployment data which will be out at London open today..then i may sell highs again depends on price action..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,209
  • Jul 15, 2018 5:29pm Jul 15, 2018 5:29pm
What data do u expect ?
  • #1,210
  • Jul 15, 2018 5:52pm Jul 15, 2018 5:52pm
Quoting LukaszH
What data do u expect ?
I dont know..but link below says previous unemployment rate %10.1 is lowest since May 2016..so, some increase is more possible..it may cause some up movement in usd try..if bears will take control, probably happen after this data results..unemployment increase make interset rate hike more difficult for Central bank next week..for this reason, if unemployment rate increase significantly, we may see up spike..if unemployment rate drop sognificantly, central bank will be more room to increase rates..so, possible usdtry drop..see how..

"The unemployment rate in Turkey fell to 10.1 percent in March of 2018 from 11.7 percent a year earlier, reaching the lowest rate since May of 2016. The non-agricultural jobless rate also decreased to 11.9 percent from 13.7 percent. Among youth, the rate dropped to 17.7 percent from 21.4 percent. Unemployment Rate in Turkey averaged 10.06 percent from 2005 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 14.80 percent in February of 2009 and a record low of 7.30 percent in June of 2012."
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/unemployment-rate

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,211
  • Jul 16, 2018 1:28am Jul 16, 2018 1:28am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I dont know..but link below says previous unemployment rate %10.1 is lowest since May 2016..so, some increase is more possible..it may cause some up movement in usd try..if bears will take control, probably happen after this data results..unemployment increase make interset rate hike more difficult for Central bank next week..for this reason, if unemployment rate increase significantly, we may see up spike..if unemployment rate drop sognificantly, central bank will be more room to increase rates..so, possible usdtry drop..see how.. "The...

The main reason for increase rates in Turkay is inflation. It is rocketing last months. Unemployment if do not go UP i mean it will be stable aroung 10% I think this is a good news for currency.
  • #1,212
  • Jul 16, 2018 2:01am Jul 16, 2018 2:01am
Unemployment 9.6% forecast 10.2%
  • #1,213
  • Jul 16, 2018 2:01am Jul 16, 2018 2:01am
Looks like unemployment better than expected - 9.6%.
  • #1,214
  • Jul 16, 2018 2:31am Jul 16, 2018 2:31am
Quoting MisterWhite
Looks like unemployment better than expected - 9.6%.
Yes..quite better data..i sold some at 4.83..now us index is rising..eurusd is dropping..when they slow down, usdtry may continue down..we may break 4.80 today..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,215
  • Edited 6:29am Jul 16, 2018 5:53am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Yes..quite better data..i sold some at 4.83..now us index is rising..eurusd is dropping..when they slow down, usdtry may continue down..we may break 4.80 today..
I m tired of shorting usdtry..annoyingly not dropping..

Edit: closed at 4.85..no more shorting..if drop, i go long..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,216
  • Jul 16, 2018 6:38am Jul 16, 2018 6:38am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I m tired of shorting usdtry..annoyingly not dropping.. Edit: closed at 4.85..no more shorting..if drop, i go long..
Good luck.. I will wait, with positive swaps there is no reason to close shorts.
  • #1,217
  • Edited 7:09am Jul 16, 2018 6:48am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting LukaszH
{quote} Good luck.. I will wait, with positive swaps there is no reason to close shorts.
Opened long at 4.8473..see how

Edit: closed at 4.8585..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,218
  • Edited 8:20am Jul 16, 2018 8:06am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Opened long at 4.8473..see how Edit: closed at 4.8585..
Long again at 4.8348..suddenly dropped at last hour..didnt see any news..anyway, i long..100-200 pips maybe today

Edit: closed ard 4.84..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,219
  • Jul 16, 2018 10:34am Jul 16, 2018 10:34am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Long again at 4.8348..suddenly dropped at last hour..didnt see any news..anyway, i long..100-200 pips maybe today Edit: closed ard 4.84..
My short I opened last week is still open (and negative), and I added another short today (which is also negative). I am going to hope for something that scares the EURTRY bulls and causes a flurry of stop triggering.

I am trading EURTRY not the USDTRY because the swap is better.
  • #1,220
  • Jul 16, 2018 12:46pm Jul 16, 2018 12:46pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Long again at 4.8348..suddenly dropped at last hour..didnt see any news..anyway, i long..100-200 pips maybe today Edit: closed ard 4.84..
Tomorrow we will get another part od economic data from TR: Industrial Production YoY MAY

What is your expectations about this ? Any thoughts about possible impact on USD/TRY ?
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