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  • #961
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:37am Jun 29, 2018 3:37am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} mate think you are correct regarding up ,
yes..but usd try is not dropping
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #962
  • Edited 4:01am Jun 29, 2018 3:44am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} yes..but usd try is not dropping
ok..my patient has finished..i closed all with a few pip loss..probably it will drop..but dont wanna risk more..after such a euro surge, i was expecting some drop in usd try..

this week was very profitable for me

all the best
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #963
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:50am Jun 29, 2018 3:50am
lastly, there is an important event at next tuesday for Try pairs..monthly inflation rate..

have a good weekend !!

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #964
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:00am Jun 29, 2018 4:00am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} are you short Try or Usd/try ???

short usdtry Hovering around -100 pips, but it is still following the trend around the volatility.

My apologies if my statement threw ya off. I really hate that. What's horrible is, it's true. Today just wasn't one of those days. Anyway, I had a very wide stop because of the volatility and wasn't watching it close and it ate my shorts. The wide stop was correct as the bucket shop's dynamic spread hit 215 pips at one point and wiped out stops. sheesh!

I've been sitting here this last hour writing down everything I did wrong and all the clues I didn't pay attention to. Horrible. I'm grounded for a week.

I'll be in the check the news, but no trading. I need to step back and cut some rigid rules.

  1. If dynamic spread reaches wide, volatility can be expected?
  2. Don't enter trade before allotted time.
  3. Don't visit forum during active trade unless risk has been eliminated.
  4. Don't trade Last Day of Month. (I think it's the quarter end too, no?)
  5. Don't trade volatile news spread at 30 min - 1hr intervals (If I had listened to myself, I would have gone to bed.)
  6. Don't trade tired.
  7. Don't trade anything more than trade setup for the next 3 months. Nothing. Nada. Nowhere. Zilch.

  • #965
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:04am Jun 29, 2018 4:04am
still bouncing on 0 fib for the last 3hours
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #966
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:06am Jun 29, 2018 4:06am
Quoting Aussi
still bouncing on 0 fib for the last 3hours
Meanie pair!
  • #967
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:14am Jun 29, 2018 4:14am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} short usdtry Hovering around -100 pips, but it is still following the trend around the volatility. My apologies if my statement threw ya off. I really hate that. What's horrible is, it's true. Today just wasn't one of those days. Anyway, I had a very wide stop because of the volatility and wasn't watching it close and it ate my shorts. The wide stop was correct as the bucket shop's dynamic spread hit 215 pips at one point and wiped out stops. sheesh! I've been sitting here this last hour writing down everything I did wrong and all the clues...
it is ok..nothing to apologize..sorry for your loss..today early up movemnet of eur and gbp spoiled the regular movements of TRY pairs and confused us a bit..

i usually dont use stoploss and watch positions carefully.. and try to close trades in hours.. i use 1/10 leverage usually, but maybe 1/5 is better (less stress, better to decide without fear).. my positions in usd/try can bear until 4000 pips in loss..maybe a bit risky without stoploss, but i just follow the positions and close manually ..

what is your broker ?? i use pepperstone..not bad so far..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #968
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:14am Jun 29, 2018 4:14am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} short usdtry Hovering around -100 pips, but it is still following the trend around the volatility. My apologies if my statement threw ya off. I really hate that. What's horrible is, it's true. Today just wasn't one of those days. Anyway, I had a very wide stop because of the volatility and wasn't watching it close and it ate my shorts. The wide stop was correct as the bucket shop's dynamic spread hit 215 pips at one point and wiped out stops. sheesh! I've been sitting here this last hour writing down everything I did wrong and all the clues...
dont beat your self up mate i have been trading for a long long time i am 67 have got it wrong many times but the thing i say to my self is """" thats gone now what """" 99% of the time i do not look at news , just a note on news the aud/usd can have bad news and go up it also can go down on good news so thats the reason i dont trade news , i dont know how many pairs you trade mate , i learnt from trading one pair and one pair only i had in the end a 94% success rate , then i moved to more pairs well good luck mate and i would have grounded you for 2 weeks keep smiling
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #969
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:42am Jun 29, 2018 4:42am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} it is ok..nothing to apologize..sorry for your loss..today early up movemnet of eur and gbp spoiled the regular movements of TRY pairs and confused us a bit.. i usually dont use stoploss and watch positions carefully.. and try to close trades in hours.. i use 1/10 leverage usually, but maybe 1/5 is better (less stress, better to decide without fear).. my positions in usd/try can bear until 4000 pips in loss..maybe a bit risky without stoploss, but i just follow the positions and close manually .. what is your broker ?? i use pepperstone..not...

forex.com

Small acct. I set a hard stop to protect it. Their leverage can be dynamic according to fine print. I leave it to 50 lev and adjust my lots instead. Since 2 weeks ago from volatility, I limited trading to 1/2 normal size. No sweat. Same as you. At any given time, 4-5000 pips max without hard stop. Mental stop loss for risk management. 30 trades for trade setup to be determined a wash. Usually 5 or 6 trades in, I look at myself to see what's wrong.

whew a lot wrong today
  • #970
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:49am Jun 29, 2018 4:49am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} dont beat your self up mate i have been trading for a long long time i am 67 have got it wrong many times but the thing i say to my self is """" thats gone now what """" 99% of the time i do not look at news , just a note on news the aud/usd can have bad news and go up it also can go down on good news so thats the reason i dont trade news , i dont know how many pairs you trade mate , i learnt from trading one pair and one pair only i had in the end a 94% success rate , then i moved to more pairs well good luck mate and i would...


Thanks partner. Yeah... AUDUSD is a LOT of work. I never traded that one short where I saw the pattern. Pair baffles me. What you write makes sense as to why.

Maybe 2 weeks.
  • #971
  • Jun 29, 2018 5:51am Jun 29, 2018 5:51am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} forex.com Small acct. I set a hard stop to protect it. Their leverage can be dynamic according to fine print. I leave it to 50 lev and adjust my lots instead. Since 2 weeks ago from volatility, I limited trading to 1/2 normal size. No sweat. Same as you. At any given time, 4-5000 pips max without hard stop. Mental stop loss for risk management. 30 trades for trade setup to be determined a wash. Usually 5 or 6 trades in, I look at myself to see what's wrong. whew a lot wrong today
forex.com are b book they will chase your stop they go against you trade , i traded with them years and years ago they cheat then i see no reason why they dont cheat now , JUST TYPE IN FOREX.COM IN SEARCH AND A VERY VERY LOT OF BAD NEWS COMES OUT
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #972
  • Jun 29, 2018 8:07am Jun 29, 2018 8:07am
I think this pair is getting ready to pop.
  • #973
  • Jun 29, 2018 8:14am Jun 29, 2018 8:14am
No. Maybe not. Market isn't keen on a direction.


Yeah, partner. Theyr'e all crooks Unfortunately, I don't have much choice other than Oanda. Same stuff. I did my homewok and understood then when I began practicing. All my trading accounts for a ten pip spread, because that's what I deducted when I started learning. That spread amount is just for entry points. When I'm trading regular pairs, it's as if I don't really need a stop except for protection from odd situations.

I can draw a line on the chart, trade it and stay profitable. Not easy at all. I practiced hard.

I read the fine print. I looked up all the US regulated brokers at the SEC site and denoted every infraction, fines and fees. It has been a few years and I should do it again. All brokers have been fined for something. After research, a pattern evolves as to the infractions and bad behaviors. Then, I checked financials. FXCM was the biggie and greatest at the time. Remember that? The financials were better for Gain Capital (forex .com).

Fat and happy. If they're crooked, you want to pick one that is already fat and happy. Like with FXCM becasue they didn't manage well they became desperate.

So, I work around it. The greatest edge against crooked exposure is to trade in a way that you are not trading much. The key is not to overtrade and to know what you're doing well and in my case, I prefer a high probability, high risk to reward trade and also a high win ratio. That's hard to beat and might have enough tolerance for any shenanigans they try to pull off.

Then, I also have a plan for staying under the radar. It's all in good risk management.
  • #974
  • Jul 1, 2018 4:41am Jul 1, 2018 4:41am
Quoting 2dollardog
Turkey's Objective in the Presidential Era - Daily Sabah - 2 hours Turkey has an Immense and Impressive Economic Potential Hurriyet Daily News - 6 hours Erdogan hasn't spoke with any slip=ups so the general sentiment should still be upbeat. {image}
Turkey has an Immense and Impressive Economic Potential..Yes, that is exactly true..Turkey has a great potential with a great history and people..However, current administration's performance of last 5 years is not giving good hopes for near future..to be clear, i expect a full scale economics collapse in one year time..next autumn or winter, it may happen..it is on the path of Argentina..summer can be relief for a short period..

also note that media has been contolled by politicians now.. they have been purchased or confiscated in last 3 years..so, int. sources are more reliable..Ahval is ok, they are abroad living journalists mostly..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #975
  • Edited 6:53am Jul 1, 2018 5:03am | Edited 6:53am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} i heard that..i dont trust them (fund managers), maybe they want to buy cheap usd/try..i dont see any reason for significant usd/try drop..i think we are just having correction after big surge in recent months before election.. in summary, why i am so bullish in medium and long terms in usd/try.. 1) companies have big amount of fx debts which are increased with dollar surge..and to curb dollar surge Central Bank has belatedly increased interest rates which makes new loans expensive for corporations...as a result, private sector is vulnerable...
a lot of things can be written here but i ll just add one more risk and finish this matter for now..
it is a energy dependent country..importing oil and natural gas from Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asian countries, Algeria etc...there are two risk related to energy regarding economics..
one is oil and gas prices has increased significantly at recent years..at the same time lira has been depreciated for different reasons..as a result, energy import expenses has been increased a lot..and due to oil's inflationary effect into economics, inflaiton risk has risen in near-medium terms..and of course foreign trade balance-current account balance has been deteriorated..
second is about Iran.. new oil sanctions are declared by Trump.. almost half of oil import is coming from Iran now..sanctions will be in effect by 4 Nov.. so, it looks, this will add another tension to ongoing diplomatic tensions around country.. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ori...-iran-oil.html
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #976
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:19am Jul 1, 2018 5:19am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} forex.com are b book they will chase your stop they go against you trade , i traded with them years and years ago they cheat then i see no reason why they dont cheat now , JUST TYPE IN FOREX.COM IN SEARCH AND A VERY VERY LOT OF BAD NEWS COMES OUT
i m happy with pepperstone but even in pp, it happen sometimes.. crazy spreads such as 500 pips..thats why i dont prefer to use stoploss..instead i follow trades closely..and close trades in a short time, win or lose..especially, when NY close (swap times), spreads are opening..so, first and last hour candlesticks of day can be misleading due to widened spreads..these wide spreads are normalizing later on..so, if leverage are proper and you are familiar with this issue, you can endure that and profit..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #977
  • Edited 6:51am Jul 1, 2018 6:32am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting blackwinter
i would like to share you guys some other charts today.. you may find these useful.. Eur/Usd is at Monthly 50 MA and after 2 days strong drop, it is closed up today..it may reverse to higher tom.. Gbp/Usd is at Weekly 100 MA.. after 3 days strong drop, it may turn up tomorrom.. USD index is around Weekly 200 MA..after 2 strong up and 1 day almost doji, it may drop tomorrow.. Gbp/Jpy has visited today Weekly 100 MA around 143.70 and bounce up to 144.50 ..and daily candlestick has a nice pin after 2 days drop..it may reverse higher tomorrow.. of course,...
ok, some more charts and thoughts now..

June ended ..and now July and August..summer trading..usually volumes decrease..holiday season..there is Fed meeting in september with hike expectation..

so, briefly i guess that, we will see some corrections in main trends in remaining summer season and when we approach to september Fed meeting, also end of holiday season, we will mostl likely see of resuming main trends.. main trends are Eur/Usd down, Gbp/Usd down, US index up and Usd/(emerging market currencies) up..lets look at monhtly, weekly and daily charts of eur, gbp and Us index..

Eur/Usd has been bounced up from Monthly 50 MA..when we look at weekly chart, the support is 4 times tested and it has returned up from that support..even monthly chart looks quite bearish, considering summer trading and weekly rejects of break through, it is highly likely we ll see some correction in Eur in july and august..then resuming downtrend to 1.10..for this week, daily chart is quite bullish, but 4h chart is at resistance of 200 MA..so, after some pull back in 4h chart, probably we ll continue up in daily..if we break down 1.15 decisively, story changes..

Us index has been turned down from Weekly 200 MA..when we look at weekly chart, the resistance is 4 times tested and it has turned down from that resistance..even monthly chart looks bullish and we have ended the month above Monthly 50 MA, monthly up movement looks lack of momentum and ready to some correction..especially, weekly chart implies some correction is imminent in july..up trend may likely resume at second half of august or in september..if we break up 95.50 decisively, story changes..

Gbp/Usd has been bounced up from Weekly 100 MA..weekly chart looks bullish and monthly chart looks bearish..considering euro and usd index and summer trading..i expect also some correction in Gbp in july..and resuming trend in second half of august or in septmeber.. if we break down 1.30 decisively, story changes..

in accordance with Us index correction, highly likely some corrections will happen at Usd/Try and other emerging market currrencies in july and maybe in august..by ending august or in september, main trends will probably resume with approaching Fed hikes..(note that specific political or economical problems of emerging countries may prevent this expected correction)..

those are just my humble observations from charts..and reflects some past years' experience..

hope you enjoy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd monthly - 1 july.jpg Size: 406 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd weekly - 1 july.jpg Size: 380 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd daily - 1 july.jpg Size: 403 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 4h - 1 july.jpg Size: 388 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd monthly - 1 july.jpg Size: 404 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd weekly - 1 july.jpg Size: 367 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd daily - 1 july.jpg Size: 399 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd 4h - 1 july.jpg Size: 383 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index monthly - 1 july.jpg Size: 375 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index weekly - 1 july.jpg Size: 370 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #978
  • Edited 7:26am Jul 1, 2018 7:11am | Edited 7:26am
My outlook for correlation trading: really bad. Only short term trades on high prob of a dollar bull to be beneficial.

The biggest push to the dollar might be GBP given Brexit sentiment, presidential tweets notwithstanding.

Both DXY and EUR are rangebound according to moving average on higher time frames.

For USDTRY, I should only scalp with a clear bullish dollar within range and only if the Lira is weak and lately it has some strength.

Conclusion: It's a good week to not trade and I will not be. ha

The dollar index is likely to push down to the support area before continuing its bullish trend (my bias). It can do this within a rangebound environment. It might take a while to return to the trend. Likewise, EURUSD might be forming a right shoulder throughout this. I'm hoping to get in on a potential bearish EURUSD trend and it would push the dollar mightily for our USDTRY bullish trades. About the time DXY returns is the time Lira should show some weakness fundamentally, imo, as the election honey moon wears off and the Turks roll up their sleeves to battle Turkey's economic struggles.

Of course, I could be completely wrong.

edited: corrected info
  • #979
  • Jul 1, 2018 7:13am Jul 1, 2018 7:13am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} ok, some more charts and thoughts now.. June ended ..and now July and August..summer trading..usually volumes decrease..holiday season..there is Fed meeting in september with hike expectation.. so, briefly i guess that, we will see some corrections in main trends in remaining summer season and when we approach to september Fed meeting, also end of holiday season, we will mostl likely see of resuming main trends.. main trends are Eur/Usd down, Gbp/Usd down, US index up and Usd/(emerging market currencies) up..lets look at monhtly, weekly...
briefly i guess that, we will see some corrections in main trends in remaining summer season and when we approach to september Fed meeting, also end of holiday season, we will mostl likely see of resuming main trends..

so, my guesses are at attached charts..approximately..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index weekly forecast - 1 july.jpg Size: 365 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd weekly forecast - 1 july.jpg Size: 374 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd weekly forecast - 1 july.jpg Size: 361 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try weekly forecast- 1 july.jpg Size: 344 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #980
  • Jul 1, 2018 7:19am Jul 1, 2018 7:19am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} ok,
Fabulous. It's attention-getting to see another analysis with moving averages. I haven't the detail as you, but my forest view matches what you see. Fascinating.
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