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  • #901
  • Edited 7:35pm Jun 25, 2018 2:52pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting blackwinter
hourly chart turning bearish.. 4h 200 MA (moivng average) at artd 4.56.. above that level looks good buy area to me.. if not broken below decisively... {image} {image}
Usd/Try Daily chart looks quite bullish to me..4h chart 1h charts also looks bullish i think.. What interesting is Us Dollar index has been dropped today..look at daily chart..in such a day Usd/Try completing daily candlestick higher than friday...post election optimism seems vanished already..

i am more bullish than yesterday..i was bullish in this pair in medium and long term but daily and 4h charts imply that also in short term (days to one month) usd/try is bullish..probably after swap time (NY close) i buy usd/try..

Edit: i am also adding borsa istanbul stock exchange daily chart..it has opened quite high today and close in negative comparing to last friday..
Edit 2: even in such a day that Us Dollar index has dropped, Usd/try has completed day up..that shows lira's weakness and negative future expectations after election..when Usd index start to rise again, lira may lose more and more..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try daily.jpg Size: 390 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 4h.jpg Size: 389 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try hourly.jpg Size: 389 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index daily.jpg Size: 388 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: bist 100 daily.jpg Size: 115 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #902
  • Jun 25, 2018 3:35pm Jun 25, 2018 3:35pm
blackwater, thank you for that DXY analysis. I came here to post my only ammo. I did a crude Wyckoff Analysis back in April for the dollar. It suggests a dollar bull for a couple years that might fulfill the overall channel.

I'm week on fundamentals and some aspects of trading. I see the dollar trying to reverse and wondered if it was going to break the pattern. Yet, despite any bad news (or attempts to manipulate) against the dollar, it still seems bullish in the long run.

This is bad news for the Turkish Lira even if it tries to gain ground. It's bad news for emerging markets and I'm looking into the Peso or the South African Rand to short scalp over the next coupe of years.

I guess there's a lot of money to be made on exotic currency pairs in at least this year!

DXY Chart

I am actually surprised the Lir lost ground so quickly.
  • #903
  • Edited 9:04pm Jun 25, 2018 4:00pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting 2dollardog
blackwater, thank you for that DXY analysis. I came here to post my only ammo. I did a crude Wyckoff Analysis back in April for the dollar. It suggests a dollar bull for a couple years that might fulfill the overall channel. I'm week on fundamentals and some aspects of trading. I see the dollar trying to reverse and wondered if it was going to break the pattern. Yet, despite any bad news (or attempts to manipulate) against the dollar, it still seems bullish in the long run. This is bad news for the Turkish Lira even if it tries to gain ground. It's...
i think you re talking to me..blackwinter i am you re welcome..

for us index, i expect us dollar will be in uptrend in medium and long terms because fed is ending its monetary expansion policies gradually and us economy is doing better than eu and japan..for now it seems, this uptrend will continue a few years..but daily and weekly us index charts suggest some correction..it is quite normal because there are 2 strong resistance which daily prices encountered..100 weekly MA and 200 weekly MA...correction may last a few weeks, more or less..but main trend is up, i think..

on the other side, Turkish lira has its own peculiar problems..maybe, i can write a short summary about risks of Turkish lira and economy later on..i think usd/try is strongly bullish in medium and long terms..

edit: btw i forgot to say, your Wyckoff Analysis in April is very successful..i m not familiar with that method but your guess before up move has started is great..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: us index weekly.jpg Size: 373 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index daily.jpg Size: 388 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #904
  • Edited Jun 26, 2018 2:12am Jun 25, 2018 4:04pm | Edited Jun 26, 2018 2:12am
i just bought usd/try at 4.6855..see how..today i expect to test 4.74-4.75 levels..

Edit: closed at 4.6975..i will try to buy again from good places (ard. 4.67-4.68)

Edit 2: bought at 4.6895 again..

Edit 3: Closed at 4.6990..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #905
  • Jun 25, 2018 5:08pm Jun 25, 2018 5:08pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote}{quote} presidency and parliament are won by same political bloc (akp+mhp)..now prices at 4.639(https://www.bulliondesk.com/fx-prices-charts/ ).. usd/try may drop more today and this week.. in medium (1-6 mnths) and long term (6months to years) i am bullish.. by the way, i m day trader, i dont hold positions more than a day..i dont recommend usd/try swing buy position due to high swaps...for swaps shorts looks attractive but in medium-long term dangerous i think, because of political and economical reasons..inflation seems to increase...
for election results, i want to add one important detail.. presidency and parliament are won by same political bloc (AKP+MHP) but for the first time, AKP has lost his majority in the parliament..last week, president, prime minister (with ministers cabinet) and parliament majority are hold by AKP..but system has changed, now there is a strong presindency.. and ministers cabinet will work under the President..and there will be no Prime Minister in the new system..in the new system, laws let parties go to election with allies..and AKP choose to be ally with MHP in this election..CHP+IYI Party+SP was the other bloc..and HDP went to election alone..

at the end of elections, yesterday, AKP+MHP bloc has won Presidency (ministers cabinet) and Parliament Majority (344 out of 600 parliament members)..but AKP have 295 parliament members and MHP have 49 parliament members..So, AKP,alone, doesn't have parliament majority and will be dependent on MHP by making law amendments, etc.. AKP was ruling the country alone in last 16 years, but now must take consent of MHP almost in every issue..so, it is more like a coalition, i think..everybody will realize the intial problems in coming months..as a result, imho, despite all the strong win headlines, AKP is weaker than last week..this de facto political coalition will likely cause more instability in politics and economics which are already troublesome..

note: even AKP would win parliament majority alone, i wouldn't be optimistic in economics..because we encounter this worsening economic conditions due to their wrong policies..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #906
  • Jun 25, 2018 6:29pm Jun 25, 2018 6:29pm
Thank you for this. I apologize for getting your name wrong. My monitor sits far from my face. I am weak in eyesight and short on attention span. ha

Your analysis sound knowledgeable and reasonable along with much common sense. I keep reading. The more I read, the more it makes sense. Erdogan made a lot of promises and it would seem the only one that we can be reasonably assured for him to follow through is lowering interest rates. He admittedly won't be quiet about it, either. ha

How does one know when the Turkish Bank changes the interest rates? I found their site, but do they announce it somewhere?

So sorry I don't know.

Me: 4 years trading on and off, mostly off because I don't know what I'm doing outside of this pair and don't want to blow up. I Scalp this pair during volatility.

It's good to see you use moving averages. So many have told me not to use them stating various reasons, but every time I try to give them up I see big movements in and around them on every pair, especially exotics that haven't solid support and resistance zones on a daily basis.

Speaking of, so many have told me not to trade this pair. I stopped argument and only respond with

I can smell your fear.

followed by maniacal laughter

heeh
  • #907
  • Jun 25, 2018 8:12pm Jun 25, 2018 8:12pm
Quoting 2dollardog
Thank you for this. I apologize for getting your name wrong. My monitor sits far from my face. I am weak in eyesight and short on attention span. ha Your analysis sound knowledgeable and reasonable along with much common sense. I keep reading. The more I read, the more it makes sense. Erdogan made a lot of promises and it would seem the only one that we can be reasonably assured for him to follow through is lowering interest rates. He admittedly won't be quiet about it, either. ha How does one know when the Turkish Bank changes the interest rates?...
Happy to hear that my analysis are useful..thanks

i use 50, 100, 200 Moving Averages in all timeframes to understand possible resistance and supports..it is useful to get idea where possibly movement may stop, return etc. it works well..but i dont open trade just with them..usually i take into consideration of candlesticks (all timeframes), MAs and fundamentals and trader sentiments to open trades..

Turkish Republic Central Bank regular meeting dates (for interest rates)
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/conne...ments/Calendar
nearets meeting at 24 july..

You may follow Turkish economic events from this website..quite useful..from Filters you can choose Turkey as a country..
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

You may follow Turkish 2y, 5y, 10y bond interest rates from this website..this is useful to understand foreign investors' risk sentiment about Turkey..it is Turkish but easy to follow with google translate..
http://www.bloomberght.com/tahvil/faiz

Try pairs are not easy to trade..i lose a lot sometimes..but there are a lot of movements which means opportunities..with proper leverage anyone can earn a lot..following main trend and cutting loss in time are important, i think..

actually no earning in forex without some fear
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #908
  • Jun 26, 2018 2:49am Jun 26, 2018 2:49am
Thank you! I have some homework to do. Sometimes better to study than trade, like this morning ha
  • #909
  • Jun 26, 2018 3:27am Jun 26, 2018 3:27am
it went to resistance and fell again , so i wait to see what happens have a sell right here
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people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #910
  • Jun 26, 2018 4:04am Jun 26, 2018 4:04am
usd/try it just arrived at the 68 fib 30 min support we see if it breaks down or up
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #911
  • Jun 26, 2018 5:26am Jun 26, 2018 5:26am
went down
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #912
  • Jun 26, 2018 6:03am Jun 26, 2018 6:03am
I'm playing with a major pair at the moment - shorting usdcad. I absolutely must have the momentum on USDTRY to overcome my broker's dynamic spread. Price action is pretty firm and with some volume this morning but just not quite enough. I keep trying to other things with USDTRY, but I get burned. I am just about at the pain threshold for proper discipline. lol
  • #913
  • Jun 26, 2018 8:49am Jun 26, 2018 8:49am
I closed my short at 4.6250 now waiting for new opportunity to buy new shorts at 4,68-4,71
  • #914
  • Jun 26, 2018 3:10pm Jun 26, 2018 3:10pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Usd/Try Daily chart looks quite bullish to me..4h chart 1h charts also looks bullish i think.. What interesting is Us Dollar index has been dropped today..look at daily chart..in such a day Usd/Try completing daily candlestick higher than friday...post election optimism seems vanished already.. i am more bullish than yesterday..i was bullish in this pair in medium and long term but daily and 4h charts imply that also in short term (days to one month) usd/try is bullish..probably after swap time (NY close) i buy usd/try.. Edit: i am also...
Today was another interesting day for lira Usd index has increased daily but usd/try dropped nicely.. i was expecting to test 4.74-4.75 levels after yesterday's strong daily up..we just have visited 4.71..it seems 4h 50 MA hold nicely above.. daily, 4h ,1h charts looks quite bearish now despite Usd index rise..we may see range trading a few weeks between 4.50-4.70..i m not planning to short but now it looks bearish..i ll be waiting for good places to long..

In Usd index we are above monthly 50 MA now..

Congratulations to shorts today
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usd try h4 26 jun day end.jpg Size: 391 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try h1 26 jun day end.jpg Size: 396 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index daily 26 jun day end.jpg Size: 400 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index monthly 26 jun day end.jpg Size: 351 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: bist 100 daily 26 jun day end.jpg Size: 107 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #915
  • Edited 10:55pm Jun 26, 2018 5:33pm | Edited 10:55pm
Some opinions about economy..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-after-his-win

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...turing-demands

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/stat...742530?lang=en

https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/stat...76216787542016

edit:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-by-investors
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #916
  • Jun 27, 2018 4:05pm Jun 27, 2018 4:05pm
i just bought some usd/try at 4.623 after swap time..see how..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #917
  • Jun 27, 2018 4:51pm Jun 27, 2018 4:51pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Today was another interesting day for lira Usd index has increased daily but usd/try dropped nicely.. i was expecting to test 4.74-4.75 levels after yesterday's strong daily up..we just have visited 4.71..it seems 4h 50 MA hold nicely above.. daily, 4h ,1h charts looks quite bearish now despite Usd index rise..we may see range trading a few weeks between 4.50-4.70..i m not planning to short but now it looks bearish..i ll be waiting for good places to long.. In Usd index we are above monthly 50 MA now.. Congratulations to shorts today...
We have ended the day almost at same price in usd/try..despite awesome Usd index rise today usd/try didn't rise at all, just in midday we have visited 1h 50 MA at 4.6550 and dropped back.. also considering yesterday's bearish close in daily, we haven't gone below significantly, barely it has touched to 4h 200 MA at below ard 4.5920 and bounce back..

so, when looking daily, 4h ,1h charts at the end of day, i think, bearish movement doesn't have much momentum..and considering Us index rise, decrease of global stocks and other risks of Try, it is good to long now..4h 50MA (ard 4.6950) can be visited at above..

note that if we break decisively 4h 200 MA (ard 4.5930) below, story changes...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try daily 27 june day end.jpg Size: 403 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 4h 27 june day end.jpg Size: 398 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 1h 27 june day end.jpg Size: 417 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #918
  • Edited 10:30pm Jun 27, 2018 10:10pm | Edited 10:30pm
According to Ahval, Mark Mobius recommended buying the Lira.

Erdogan Victory Takes Turkey ETF to 9 Year Low
– Nasdaq

Two international finance institutions, the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, have provided $1.2 billion in loans for the expansion work on Turkey's Lake Tuz underground gas storage facility
Turkey's ever-growing energy industry continues to draw investments from international institutions.
– Daily Sabah

Erdogan’s MHYP allies will influence foreign policy
- Ahval

Troulbe Looms for Turkey’s Transatlantic Ties
- The German Marshall Fund of the United States
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Turkey – another country significantly raising its gold reserves
-Sharps Pixley
Turkish economy facing major challenges
-Deutsche Welle
Turkey: There is Still Room For Regaining Invetors Confidence
-Investing.com
Moody’s says awaiting Turkish economic reforms
-Ahval

“EU is HYPOCRITICAL and DISHONEST!” Erdogan claims. EU ministers published a report which condemned Mr Erodgan and called for a stop to ascension talks on Turkey becoming a member state.
Turkey is “moving further away” from the EU and European values, according to the report which added Ankara's membership bid had juddered to a standstill.

Turkey detains 324 Security Staff and 192 military personnel within 24 hours of re-election of Erdogan.


Adam Schiff swifts his hatred from Putin to Erdogan in his “war of words”.
  • #919
  • Edited 11:32pm Jun 27, 2018 10:42pm | Edited 11:32pm
Quoting 2dollardog
According to Ahval, Mark Mobius recommended buying the Lira.
i heard that..i dont trust them (fund managers), maybe they want to buy cheap usd/try..i dont see any reason for significant usd/try drop..i think we are just having correction after big surge in recent months before election..

in summary, why i am so bullish in medium and long terms in usd/try..

1) companies have big amount of fx debts which are increased with dollar surge..and to curb dollar surge Central Bank has belatedly increased interest rates which makes new loans expensive for corporations...as a result, private sector is vulnerable and bankruptcies may rise.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...turing-demands

2) this may be useful to have an idea about expectations..Central Bank is selling fx with 1 month and 3 months maturity.. so, banks are buying us dollar at a higher prices than now..so most of banks are not expecting usd/try drop.. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/conne...230293-mh1BGzW

3) expectations about inflation are not good.. and worse, people are losing their faith to declared data numbers.. as a result, most of the foreign investors are hesitating to buy cheap stocks and lucrative bonds.. moreover, dollarisation has started among local people to protect themselves from melting power purchase.. https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/stat...76216787542016

4) of course, Usd index also makes things worse for Lira.. Usd index is in uptrend and it seems it will break soon MA resistances above..

5) country has a problem of F.Trade Deficit and Current Account deficit..and tries to balance foreign trade deficit with tourism..but, tourism is not enough to close gap and has decreased recent years under emergency situation laws..so, the country is vulnerable to currency shocks..since Central Bank hasn't accumluated big enough fx reserves in the past, CB cannot defend certain levels for a long time..i believe they sold some dollar before election to calm down market but they won't do it again probably (i mean, they will sell with regular auctions, no target any level)..because fx reserves aren't enough and no immediate reason to defend any level..



i lll add some more stuff here later.....................
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #920
  • Jun 28, 2018 12:21am Jun 28, 2018 12:21am
Caution. Media releases statement that he/they agreed to lift the state of emergency next month.
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