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SAFE - KISS

  • #1,141
  • Jun 14, 2018 2:49am Jun 14, 2018 2:49am
Quoting alexgvr
This is how market punish when you enter a trade on lower TF very close to important news . Just hit your SL and rapidly move to the right direction. {image}
Ahaa. But if you had placed your SL as per the rules you would not have been stopped out & now in profit by +50 pips
I know I know. I did the same thing & look where it got me.
Let this be a lesson to all including myself. Don't break or even bend the rules.

Welcome to the commercial forum. Pity TWEE is so gullible & easily manipulated. Never mind. It is what it is & lets face it FF is governed by the brokers who hit the panic button whenever someone comes up with a winning system.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,142
  • Jun 14, 2018 2:51am Jun 14, 2018 2:51am
Quoting 4xu2
{quote} Haha, I still use Magnetic lines. My second favorite thread.
Haha. Me too. Combine that with this & reap those pips.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,143
  • Jun 14, 2018 2:55am Jun 14, 2018 2:55am
Quoting Plasma
Is it you KiwiOz ?
Of course!!! I'm also god.!!! Correction. Gods brother. Well according to my wife anyway. Whenever she calls out Ohh god Ohh god. I say. I'm not god. I'm his brother.. Ralffe...
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,144
  • Jun 14, 2018 3:34am Jun 14, 2018 3:34am
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Ahaa. But if you had placed your SL as per the rules you would not have been stopped out & now in profit by +50 pips I know I know. I did the same thing & look where it got me. Let this be a lesson to all including myself. Don't break or even bend the rules. Welcome to the commercial forum. Pity TWEE is so gullible & easily manipulated. Never mind. It is what it is & lets face it FF is governed by the brokers who hit the panic button whenever someone comes up with a winning system.
Sure, but still good to get such learnings on demo.

Could you adise if at least entry point was according to the rules?

thanks !
  • #1,145
  • Jun 14, 2018 3:58am Jun 14, 2018 3:58am
Quoting alexgvr
{quote} Sure, but still good to get such learnings on demo. Could you adise if at least entry point was according to the rules? thanks !
Yes. In fact it was almost identical to your trade. Lesson learnt. Lets all take it aboard.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,146
  • Jun 14, 2018 9:46am Jun 14, 2018 9:46am
Letting the lines do the talking
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  • #1,147
  • Jun 14, 2018 10:10am Jun 14, 2018 10:10am
Quoting lordbanks
Letting the lines do the talking {image}
Could you advise what was the reason to keep short trade? The downtrend line was broken and signal appeared to switch for long trade although before today EU news it was quite risky.
  • #1,148
  • Edited 1:25pm Jun 14, 2018 1:12pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting alexgvr
{quote} Could you advise what was the reason to keep short trade? The downtrend line was broken and signal appeared to switch for long trade although before today EU news it was quite risky.
correct, was considering the daily also for my exit. Again looking from my pc,the down trend hadnt been disqualified yet
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  • #1,149
  • Jun 18, 2018 12:31am Jun 18, 2018 12:31am
Quoting lordbanks
Letting the lines do the talking {image}
Well done lordbanks. You were the only one to catch the EU drop & so far you are the best of the bunch.
Just a word of warning to all. Using pending orders either stop or limit, do not work well with the Hinged line system. Better to miss out than to have a pending order go wrong.
These are the very things the market makers look for. The target the pending orders triggering them, then send the market in the opposite direction hitting your SLs.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,150
  • Jun 18, 2018 12:34am Jun 18, 2018 12:34am
Todays trading will be one of those where the 1H & 4H come into play. Expect 50% retraces but let the lines do the talking.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,151
  • Jun 18, 2018 12:36am Jun 18, 2018 12:36am
Well now guys n gals. Here we are in the commercial section. That being so we all may as well turn this system into a business.

Stand by... I'm working on it.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,152
  • Edited 6:14am Jun 18, 2018 3:47am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting Ralffe
Well now guys n gals. Here we are in the commercial section. That being so we all may as well turn this system into a business. Stand by... I'm working on it.
Without Forex education & a successful trading system strictly adhered to, How many would survive with the rules below.

Rules


SL must be used on every trade.


SL values must not exceed 3%


DD must not exceed 3%

Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,153
  • Jun 18, 2018 6:19am Jun 18, 2018 6:19am
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Without Forex education & a successful trading system strictly adhered to, How many would survive with the rules below. Rules SL must be used on every trade. SL values must not exceed 3% DD must not exceed 3%
With Forex education & a successful trading system strictly adhered to, is a 90% win rate possible.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,154
  • Jun 18, 2018 9:55am Jun 18, 2018 9:55am
I just found this thread last week and would like to thank you for sharing your system with everyone. I find this way of thinking and trend following very interesting and simple. I found a couple of good setups following you plan and currently I am in EUR/AUD D1. Here is my chart and wondering if you can tell me if I was correct in when I assumed the previous downtrend was broken and if my hinge trend line is appropriately drawn? Thanks so much for your insight and sharing of your system.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,155
  • Jun 18, 2018 10:55am Jun 18, 2018 10:55am
Any trading system which has a 90% long-term win rate has SERIOUS draw-downs with the other 10% where one loses.

You can readily see this from all of those ZuluTrade dot com systems which go "POOF!" given enough time, reporting 90%+ winners. Even 80% is C-R-A-Z-Y as it requires upside-down risk (the culmination of all of your trades will show that you had to, on average, risk up to 2x MORE per trade than you could possibly gain).

That 10% where you lose can and will END YOU as a trader.

Just because someone is on a daily chart, taking "10 mins a day" to make a trading decision for such stats, does not shelter one from the horrific downsides one can experience. If someone happens along to declare, "Well, I only risk 2-3% of my account, have 90% long-term winners and my average reward to risk is 2:1 AND better!". Well, no, it most likely isn't. That person is either not from this planet or is such an oddity in the realm of trading as to be truly unique or, most likely 99.9% of the time, has not experienced his/her moment of truth where all is revealed to what I have stated is the end of the road to one's full understanding of reward/risk ratios and winning pcts in a world of trading where countless methods by big and small entities are applied in an effort to come out ahead in the end.

Anyone can have 90% win rate "moments" WITH high reward to risk ratios in their trading: streaks of days, weeks, even months. But the Central Limit Theorem is fully alive, well and kicking and WILL educate anyone who thinks otherwise IN THE LONGER TERM.

That's the general truth in trading.

Specific to this thread:

I like the way these trendlines are drawn. I am learning something new. I consider it beneficial information. I have no problem that this can be a winning system.

But no one can and will ever snow job me (American expression, but I'm sure any native English speaker understands) on the relationship of long-term average winners to losers and their correct relationship to a long-term average winning pct.
  • #1,156
  • Jun 18, 2018 12:00pm Jun 18, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting CLTrader
Any trading system which has a 90% long-term win rate has SERIOUS draw-downs with the other 10% where one loses.
That 10% where you lose can and will END YOU as a trader.
What do mean? Why should it have serious draw-downs?
If you have at least 1:1 r/r, then why should this 10% end you as a trader?
As far as I could understand, this strategy doesn't suppose many small wins to several possible huge losses.
  • #1,157
  • Jun 18, 2018 4:38pm Jun 18, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting antisystem
{quote} What do mean? Why should it have serious draw-downs? If you have at least 1:1 r/r, then why should this 10% end you as a trader? As far as I could understand, this strategy doesn't suppose many small wins to several possible huge losses.
He hasnt read the thread to understand what the strategy is all about, so dont waste your breath trying to explain it
Thank You James16, Fijitrader, Mbqb1, ghous, Pinbar and Jarroo. cpfleger
  • #1,158
  • Jun 18, 2018 7:10pm Jun 18, 2018 7:10pm
[quote=CLTrader;11177691]Any trading system which has a 90% long-term win rate has SERIOUS draw-downs with the other 10% where one loses./quote]

With "Normal" circumstances & the "average" trader I would agree. However we are not talking normal here. Read the post before the one you commented on to see the MM involved. The rest comes down simply to Patience, discipline & following the rules diligently, without which no system will survive.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,159
  • Jun 18, 2018 7:15pm Jun 18, 2018 7:15pm
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} With Forex education & a successful trading system strictly adhered to, is a 90% win rate possible.
Possible. Yes.
Probable. Only for those willing to learn & apply that learning with dedication & discipline.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,160
  • Jun 18, 2018 7:27pm Jun 18, 2018 7:27pm
Common belief is that 99% of traders are losers. No-one knows the exact figure.
With the right approach, right group, right system & application, I believe that figure could be drastically reduced.
Conventional trading is for losers
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