Hi,
I have watched the videos and read all the posts and am wondering where this thread will go next. I have also analysed the strange around news events, and how stop hunting is a real thing (or, like has been said earlier, movements down towards a bunch of stop losses which will provide SM sell trades with liquidity to exit as stop loss orders convert in to buy market orders). I am not (yet) a successful trader, but am interested in learning more about how markets truly operate. I use price action to structure trades and some order flow knowledge to help increase their chances of success.
I will share my trade this week to see if this thread and I are on similar wave length:
Chart 1 shows GBPJPY at close of day 21 May 2018. I have only added the 38.1% fib retracement level and 100, 150 and 200 moving averages to show that there will be a fair range of short to mid term traders going short here. So I assume there are a significant number of traders short, who can't be allowed to make money. If SM can buy in large volume against so many open sell market orders. SO I would like to sell here, but would be wary of the guessing that there will also be a large volume of sell orders in the form of stop loss levels above past few bars (some above previous bar and some above 2 bars ago). I would like to sell here if I felt that we could knock out at least one of these in the next bar or two...
Chart 2 shows the next day knocks out the previous high by 6.7 pips. This ought to knock out open sellers as their stop losses are hit. Maybe we will also get some new breakout buyers (always a consideration but not massively likely here, but is sometimes an added bonus).
Now I can sell here, and will hopefully be allowed to get a successful trade, as price no longer needs to go up, and that I am part of the threshold of traders allowed to sometime make a buck.
If this thread is to become a thread for a collection of like minded people, it would be nice if they could also contribute their thoughts, and current beliefs about the market. And hopefully we can progress the mindset, which Fractal Freak appears to wish.
Thanks for the posts Fractal Freak.
I have watched the videos and read all the posts and am wondering where this thread will go next. I have also analysed the strange around news events, and how stop hunting is a real thing (or, like has been said earlier, movements down towards a bunch of stop losses which will provide SM sell trades with liquidity to exit as stop loss orders convert in to buy market orders). I am not (yet) a successful trader, but am interested in learning more about how markets truly operate. I use price action to structure trades and some order flow knowledge to help increase their chances of success.
I will share my trade this week to see if this thread and I are on similar wave length:
Chart 1 shows GBPJPY at close of day 21 May 2018. I have only added the 38.1% fib retracement level and 100, 150 and 200 moving averages to show that there will be a fair range of short to mid term traders going short here. So I assume there are a significant number of traders short, who can't be allowed to make money. If SM can buy in large volume against so many open sell market orders. SO I would like to sell here, but would be wary of the guessing that there will also be a large volume of sell orders in the form of stop loss levels above past few bars (some above previous bar and some above 2 bars ago). I would like to sell here if I felt that we could knock out at least one of these in the next bar or two...
Chart 2 shows the next day knocks out the previous high by 6.7 pips. This ought to knock out open sellers as their stop losses are hit. Maybe we will also get some new breakout buyers (always a consideration but not massively likely here, but is sometimes an added bonus).
Now I can sell here, and will hopefully be allowed to get a successful trade, as price no longer needs to go up, and that I am part of the threshold of traders allowed to sometime make a buck.
If this thread is to become a thread for a collection of like minded people, it would be nice if they could also contribute their thoughts, and current beliefs about the market. And hopefully we can progress the mindset, which Fractal Freak appears to wish.
Thanks for the posts Fractal Freak.