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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #601
  • May 7, 2018 12:24pm May 7, 2018 12:24pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I think we'll more likely get an outcome from the Iran situation first before NAFTA, right? But then, how much actual damage to Oil will a collapse of the Iran deal cause? Is it probably a more solid trade to play it from the risk-off angle?

Well less output means more demand which means higher prices.

Nafta is very very tricky. I have heard so many dates I could not really say.

Oil is in a good place right now I would say and the demand matches the value.

It is risk off hence why I am long oil but the Saudis wanting $80 per barrel is what has it moving also.
  • #602
  • May 7, 2018 12:27pm May 7, 2018 12:27pm
Quoting shettytushar
{quote} Have you ever tried FXWatcher and FXWW Connect? Any views you have about them as they both provide fundamental reports.
Nope never tried them.

At this stage I couldn't really add anymore news sources.

Ransquawk
bloomberg
reuters (on weekends if i am honest)
Forex factory news is good if you subscribe
forexlive.com (I only use as it comes direct to my phone. If you go on their website via your mobile you can subscribe and receive news like you would do a whatsapp message)
  • #603
  • May 7, 2018 12:58pm May 7, 2018 12:58pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Well less output means more demand which means higher prices. Nafta is very very tricky. I have heard so many dates I could not really say. Oil is in a good place right now I would say and the demand matches the value. It is risk off hence why I am long oil but the Saudis wanting $80 per barrel is what has it moving also.
Yeah, what I meant is that I am not so sure by how much it will affect oil's output. But I am sure it will turn global risk sentiment sour, hence its probably a more solid trade to go long Yen instead.

Do you think the Saudis' wanting oil at $80pbl is strong enough driver on it's own?
  • #604
  • May 7, 2018 1:02pm May 7, 2018 1:02pm
The fundamental analysis is the one that determines the general direction of the currency, because in the end the Forex is an investment. Therefore, the investor's confidence in the market must be affected
The fundamental analysis is concerned with the strength of the real currency, depending on the economic situation of the countries
The combination of fundamental analysis and technical analysis gives you a comprehensive view of the market
  • #605
  • May 7, 2018 1:18pm May 7, 2018 1:18pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I think we'll more likely get an outcome from the Iran situation first before NAFTA, right? But then, how much actual damage to Oil will a collapse of the Iran deal cause? Is it probably a more solid trade to play it from the risk-off angle?
Well with Iran the deadline is for the 12th of May so that is set in stone, but NAFTA can be rushed so we could potentially see something occurring this week (or the next!), that is why I will be playing it safe.

And if the Iran deal were to collapse that would send the price of Oil skyrocketing! The CAD will go up as well, we could potentially see $80 a barrel not to mention the effects of risk aversion on the markets.

And taking a risk off approach is best in my opinion, however you do have other events in the markets that may suddenly increase the risk appetite of the markets e.g. if North Korea meeting gets confirmed, US-China trade talks start to go well, NAFTA agreements start to go well. So as you can see there are many factors to take into consideration when choosing to profit from gauging a risk approach, which is why I have decided to just stick to the EUR/GBP which will not be changed by any unexpected factors this week.
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #606
  • May 7, 2018 1:23pm May 7, 2018 1:23pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I think CAD/CHF is a safe bet. AUD/CAD does not move enough and you'll be wondering why you dont have double in your account. NZD/CAD is also an option.
Are these assuming that the NAFTA deal does not go through? I am confident that the deal will go through. And that is interesting about China, I was not aware that the US had the upper hand in the negotiations
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #607
  • May 7, 2018 1:47pm May 7, 2018 1:47pm
6 PM GMT TOMORROW, TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE HIS IRAN DECISION - BRACE YOURSELF

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/trump-to-announce-iran-nuclear-deal-decision-tuesday-at-2-pm-et-20180507
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #608
  • May 7, 2018 2:30pm May 7, 2018 2:30pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I agree with you on cable as it is a pair that you can solely make a living on as it has a good range and can be quite news driven. GBP is fairly simple. Focus on what the central bank says. Brexit has been to pushed to one side for now and traders dont even respond that much to the news on it anymore. The USD side of cable is another job in itself but you just have to adapt. GBP VS CHF is alot more quieter pair to trade.
respectfully disagree. central banks & rates are not everything. look at the eurusd 2nd half of last year. people are still debating what was going on. but i guess if i hold onto the pair for 6 months, i would still come out ahead.
  • #609
  • May 7, 2018 3:07pm May 7, 2018 3:07pm
Quoting forexin101
US TRADES
SUMMARY

- 9 pips, all in all, could have been very different if I had not been stopped out by a pip so I could capitalise on the Trump announcement today, but that's part of trading, on to tomorrow
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #610
  • May 7, 2018 8:47pm May 7, 2018 8:47pm
Do you think the AUD Retail Sales new release just now affected EURUSD? Had a big move down at the same exact time as the release.
  • #611
  • May 7, 2018 8:54pm May 7, 2018 8:54pm
Quoting bojack34
Do you think the AUD Retail Sales new release just now affected EURUSD? Had a big move down at the same exact time as the release.
Yep it had an affect on quite a few currencies as dollar buying took place.

Chinese trade balance still to come as well which could affect the AUD.
  • #612
  • May 7, 2018 8:57pm May 7, 2018 8:57pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Yep it had an affect on quite a few currencies as dollar buying took place. Chinese trade balance still to come as well which could affect the AUD.
I honestly didn't know that that was possible. I didn't think AUD news releases could/would affect USD currency like that. I learn something new everyday
  • #613
  • May 7, 2018 8:59pm May 7, 2018 8:59pm
Quoting forexin101
6 PM GMT TOMORROW, TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE HIS IRAN DECISION - BRACE YOURSELF https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/trump-to-announce-iran-nuclear-deal-decision-tuesday-at-2-pm-et-20180507
Make sure your Squawk is on full volume
  • #614
  • May 7, 2018 9:04pm May 7, 2018 9:04pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Yeah, what I meant is that I am not so sure by how much it will affect oil's output. But I am sure it will turn global risk sentiment sour, hence its probably a more solid trade to go long Yen instead. Do you think the Saudis' wanting oil at $80pbl is strong enough driver on it's own?
Saudi overpower Iran when it comes to oil Lol.
  • #615
  • May 7, 2018 9:07pm May 7, 2018 9:07pm
Quoting baldmonk
{quote} respectfully disagree. central banks & rates are not everything. look at the eurusd 2nd half of last year. people are still debating what was going on. but i guess if i hold onto the pair for 6 months, i would still come out ahead.

People are debating whats going on because of the ECB!!

With the recent EU & German data things are not looking to good.
  • #616
  • May 7, 2018 9:34pm May 7, 2018 9:34pm
Hey Samson,

Mostly break even for the 1st half of April. Took 7 trades mid month-ish after price on USD pairs FINALLY broke tech levels.

AUDUSD - SHORT Entry 0.77235 April 20th, Exit 0.75235. No Add-Ons. +200 PIPS. 9 Trading Days. Closed position because price TRIPLE TAPPED around the 0.75000 Level. Same level price did not break through in early December 2017. That bounce was followed by a huge 500 pip move over the following 2 months.

EURUSD - SHORT Entry 1.22794 April 23rd, No Exit Yet. No Add-Ons. Current Stop 1.19603. +319.1 PIPS Secured. 12 Trading Days and counting. Looks like it is slowing down. Price is currently playing with January's lows. If it breaks, it still has space to fall until around 1.16000. Wait and see.

GBPUSD - SHORT Entry 1.40772 April 20th, No Exit Yet. No Add-Ons. Current Stop 1.35876. +489.6 Secured. 11 Trading Days and counting. It will probably hit SL before I finish posting this. Price is currently playing with January's lows same as EURUSD. Either way, a retrace or continuation, I want to see price get to 1.30000.

NZDUSD - SHORT Entry 0.73151 April 19th, Exit 0.70433. No Add-Ons. +271.8 PIPS. 10 Trading Days. Closed position because price TRIPLE TAPPED around the 0.70000 Level. This is a prime example of how Support turns into Resistance and vice versa. This same level, 0.70000, was major Resistance in December 2017. Now this same level is Support as price has bounced it for the last 6 trading days.

USDCAD - LONG Entry 1.26286 April 19th, Exit 1.28374. No Add-Ons. +208.8 PIPS. 6 Trading Days. Closed position because price TRIPLE TAPPED around the 1.29000 Level. That is about the same level as the end of March before a nice 250ish down move.

USDCHF - LONG Entry 0.96558 April 17th, No Exit Yet. No Add-Ons. Current Stop 1.00000. +344.2 PIPS Secured. 18 Trading Days and counting. I really thought price would not make to parity, but it seems to want to keep going. I don't think it will. The techs do not favor it. November 2017 the USDCHF made it to parity level but then dropped over 800 pips over the next 4 months. We shall see.

USDJPY - LONG Entry 108.699 April 23rd, Exit 108.897. No Add-Ons. +19.8 PIPS. 7 Trading Days. USDJPY has been rather messy. A lot of fundamentals seem to be messing with tech analysis. Mixed fundamental results and BOJ Policy Rate decided to stay at -0.10 added to a weaker Yen but it was not a smooth upward move. It was very choppy.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #617
  • May 7, 2018 10:15pm May 7, 2018 10:15pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Yep it had an affect on quite a few currencies as dollar buying took place. Chinese trade balance still to come as well which could affect the AUD.
Its the asian session, only the asia players (which is little compare to the Euro and UK players) are in play. It is not surprising to see USD strengthen on the bad AUD data. The reason could be many, such as people exiting their carry trade or the change in the DXY index.... etc. However I feel its only temporary, the real move will probably come later.

I am still not convinced by the USD strength if any fundamentally FED cant do rate hike and balance sheet unwinding at the same time. That will kill the world economy, and it will probably lead to a recession. That's the last thing FED wants to do, which is to undo what it has been doing for the past decade... Which is also why they added in symmetric for their minutes on the last meeting. We can still be stuck with 2 hikes instead of 4, the market is definitely overpricing for 4hikes.
  • #618
  • May 7, 2018 10:26pm May 7, 2018 10:26pm
Quoting TheOnion
{quote} Its the asian session, only the asia players (which is little compare to the Euro and UK players) are in play. It is not surprising to see USD strengthen on the bad AUD data. The reason could be many, such as people exiting their carry trade or the change in the DXY index.... etc. However I feel its only temporary, the real move will probably come later. I am still not convinced by the USD strength if any fundamentally FED cant do rate hike and balance sheet unwinding at the same time. That will kill the world economy, and it will probably...
Im curious as to why you think the fed hiking rates and doing balance sheet unwinding at the same time will kill the economy?
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #619
  • May 7, 2018 10:45pm May 7, 2018 10:45pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} Im curious as to why you think the fed hiking rates and doing balance sheet unwinding at the same time will kill the economy?
First of all it will mean those holding on to debt will have to pay more, and that means fewer earnings for the company. That will have a chain effect from company to the producer to consumer to market.

Also emerging market will be hit the hardest, and its starting to show already. It is a global world so whatever happens on the other side of the world has repercussion on the US side too, albeit it might trickle back slowly not immediate.

I am still trying to figure out and understand where it is all going so feel free to discuss and critique me, cause I am just a newbie at the moment
  • #620
  • May 7, 2018 10:46pm May 7, 2018 10:46pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey Samson, Mostly break even for the 1st half of April. Took 7 trades mid month-ish after price on USD pairs FINALLY broke tech levels. AUDUSD - SHORT Entry 0.77235 April 20th, Exit 0.75235. No Add-Ons. +200 PIPS. 9 Trading Days. Closed position because price TRIPLE TAPPED around the 0.75000 Level. Same level price did not break through in early December 2017. That bounce was followed by a huge 500 pip move over the following 2 months. EURUSD - SHORT Entry 1.22794 April 23rd, No Exit Yet. No Add-Ons. Current Stop 1.19603. +319.1 PIPS Secured. 12...
Ric,

I agree with all those trades fundamentally, but the only issue is that if the dollar goes against you then you're in for some pain because all those trades are dollar pairs. I try to never trade more than 2 of the same currencies.

So you can add the JPY, CHF, CAD & MXN in there to replace a few USD's

AUD/JPY < short

NZD/CAD < short

GBP/AUD << Long.

Personally I wouldn't be shorting Cable due to boe meeting on Thursday. Also it could impact EUR/USD.
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