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  • #561
  • May 6, 2018 8:37pm May 6, 2018 8:37pm
SUMMARY FOR LAST WEEK

I took 590.8 pips out of the market last week, this goes to show the power of fundamentals, it could have been more however on Thursday I let my emotions get the better of me and fired my trigger (trading) finger TOO early

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I will be making my post for this week more clearer and easier to follow by doing 3 edited posts a day (will be edited during the day):

 

  1. Bias for both the UK (+ the US if it changes)
  2. All the trades I took in the UK session
  3. All the trades I took in the US session


I may change this format if I feel something else is better, otherwise happy trading and good luck

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #562
  • May 6, 2018 9:00pm May 6, 2018 9:00pm
Quoting forexin101
SUMMARY FOR LAST WEEK I took 590.8 pips out of the market last week, this goes to show the power of fundamentals, it could have been more however on Thursday I let my emotions get the better of me and fired my trigger (trading) finger TOO early {image} I will be making my post for this week more clearer and easier to follow by doing 3 edited posts a day (will be edited during the day): Bias for both the UK (+ the US if it changes) All the trades I took in the UK session All the trades I took in the US session I may change this format if I feel something...
Nice to see your gains havin a hard time here but still learning towards fundamental analysis. Do you trade fundamental by long term?
  • #563
  • May 6, 2018 9:02pm May 6, 2018 9:02pm
Why not post a Trade explorer as well?
  • #564
  • May 6, 2018 9:19pm May 6, 2018 9:19pm
Quoting neko1234
{quote} Nice to see your gains havin a hard time here but still learning towards fundamental analysis. Do you trade fundamental by long term?
Cheers, ! And I intraday trade the fundamentals
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #565
  • May 6, 2018 9:21pm May 6, 2018 9:21pm
Quoting clemmo17
Why not post a Trade explorer as well?
Yes I will do in the future, it is only this week that I have started to find a nice groove with my fundamental analyses, I was not expecting to get to grips with it so soon, I'll see how this week goes just to make sure that it is not beginners luck
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #566
  • May 6, 2018 10:00pm May 6, 2018 10:00pm
Quoting forexin101
{quote} Cheers, ! And I intraday trade the fundamentals
How do you trade intra- day using fundamentals? it seems harder cuz harder would you mind to teach some basics?
  • #567
  • Edited 1:42am May 7, 2018 1:22am | Edited 1:42am
Hi All,

Now I did not intend to take a trade today as I still have my GBP/JPY short running. I also took a short during the NFP release on GBP/USD (Currently in 15 pip draw-down) which I decided to let run until up to Thursday if possible.

I did in fact take Long early hours of this morning on WTI which spiked up 50+ pips after I took it Reason for this trade is US may pull out Iran deal, Saudi's want to see $80 per barrel and possible war tensions and oil cuts have been stated for the future. I have not decided how long I will hold this as we could get a very strong rally. The downside to trading oil is that it can go against you quite fast if you're not plugged into the news.

The only annoying thing is that I closed my EUR/USD & CABLE trades the day of NFP which was the right thing to do because the big banks crushed everyone who tried to buy VS the dollar even though we had negative numbers lol

Also Barclays recommend recommend shorting AUD/JPY 80.501 with a stop at 83.10. AUD & JPY are the most sensitive currencies to global risk (in opposite directions). The trade is based on the tensions between Iran & US.
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  • #568
  • May 7, 2018 4:19am May 7, 2018 4:19am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Hi, These videos explain it perfectly how it can be done in terms of exit and entry. Please give me feedback and I'll send you similar vids. Thanks https://youtu.be/80eJbVhxWlI https://youtu.be/SsQBjHK-SH4
Hi Samson85,

Thank you for the videos. They are great! Could you also provide me some ideas that how I should learn the fundamental trading strategy in a systematic way? Like, are there any recommended articles, books, or video series that can help me build up a complete fundamental trading system (including short-term and long-term setups)?

Sincerely,
Neo
  • #569
  • Edited 8:10am May 7, 2018 6:09am | Edited 8:10am
I was not able to trade during the UK session but these would have been my analyses going into the session

BIAS UK SESSION

BUY

 

  1. CAD: Oil strengthening
  2. JPY: Safe haven flows due to the trade dispute, however, this could be offset by the North Korean meeting set to take place
  3. AUD: Generally neutral pair, however, there was some good business data released in the Asian session


SELL

  1. EUR: Slowdown in inflation meaning the QE programme will continue
  2. GBP: No rate hike expected due to poor data
  3. CHF: New sovereign banking system threatens the safe haven status of the currency

Pairs I would have chosen going into the session are:

  1. BUY: CADCHF - Reached most of its max potential going into the US session
  2. SELL: EURAUD - Still some more sell potential going into the US session

BIAS US SESSION (compared to UK bias)

BUY

  1. I will be dropping my buy recommendation for AUD as there are other pairs (JPY and CAD) that have stronger fundamental reasons to buy


SELL

  1. CHF will be dropped because of the risk-averse environment that will stem from the Iran oil deal if the worse case scenario takes place, with CHF being a safe haven this would most likely strengthen the CHF over time

New trading pairs:

  1. Short: EURJPY
  2. SHort: GBPCAD

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #570
  • Edited 3:03pm May 7, 2018 6:12am | Edited 3:03pm
US TRADES

TRADE 1 (EURAUD short)

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re-edit: instead of CHF it should be: AUD neutral pair, however, there was some good business data released in the Asian session

This bias was from the UK session, fundamentals look like they will stay the same throughout the session and there is still some downside to go based on its ATR for the day

UPDATE (14:03 GMT+1): The AUD is not a strong enough pair I find to use as a pair of strength, I will be slowly closing this position and choosing other pairs (short EURJPY and GBPCAD)

UPDATE (14:18 GMT+!): Closed out this position for a loss of -14 pips, I am confident I will make this back from my new pairs (may have been a bit too boastful which can be detrimental to trading)

TRADE 2 (GBPCAD short)

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Based on the UK bank holiday, this has led the GBP pairs to become severely overbought, after reaching a technical test I feel it is a good entry to go short

UPDATE (19:51 GMT+1): Left the trade early based on news that the Trump deal will be announced (-8.3 pips)

TRADE 3 (EURJPY short)

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Still, some pips for this pair to go based on its ATR

UPDATE (21:00 GMT+1): Closed out for a 20 pip profit

TRADE 4 (GBPCAD long)

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Unfortunately got stopped out from a tight stop loss (you win some you lose some!) This trade was based on the bias that the Iran deal will go through okay tomorrow making the price of the CAD to decrease (-6.4 pips)
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #571
  • May 7, 2018 6:40am May 7, 2018 6:40am
Quoting forexin101
I was not able to trade during the UK session but these would have been my analyses going into the session BIAS UK SESSION BUY CAD: Oil strengthening JPY: Safe haven flows due to the trade dispute, however, this could be offset by the North Korean meeting set to take place AUD: Generally neutral pair, however, there was some good business data released in the Asian session SELL EUR: Slowdown in inflation meaning the QE programme will continue GBP: No rate hike expected due to poor data CHF: New sovereign banking system threatens the safe haven status...
Manufacturing data was a shocker this morning from Germany. Made the main headline in the currency section at Bloomberg.
  • #572
  • May 7, 2018 6:46am May 7, 2018 6:46am
Quoting neothegreat
{quote} Hi Samson85, Thank you for the videos. They are great! Could you also provide me some ideas that how I should learn the fundamental trading strategy in a systematic way? Like, are there any recommended articles, books, or video series that can help me build up a complete fundamental trading system (including short-term and long-term setups)? Sincerely, Neo
Do you mean in terms of executing the trade?
  • #573
  • May 7, 2018 7:01am May 7, 2018 7:01am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Manufacturing data was a shocker this morning from Germany. Made the main headline in the currency section at Bloomberg.
I'm just seeing it now on the FF calendar as a low impact event. I currently just follow high and medium impact events, however, I do feel to get the most out of fundamental trading it is best to follow all the news.

How do you follow the economic calendar?
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #574
  • May 7, 2018 7:11am May 7, 2018 7:11am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} I'm just seeing it now on the FF calendar as a low impact event. I currently just follow high and medium impact events, however, I do feel to get the most out of fundamental trading it is best to follow all the news. How do you follow the economic calendar?
On the CMC Market calendar it is a high impact event, but remember manufacturing is massive in Germany just like the UK.

You can sign up to the demo account for CMC markets and use their calendar as its really good. They release the numbers instantly on the calendar and I trade it as soon as i see it. I only trade CPI, GDP, interest rate & Employment figures as they do up to 100 pips, but you need to be careful as certain currencies dont always react to the data depending on where they are up to economically. For example JPY, CHF, EUR does not really react to any data instantly. Aud is tricky as well as sometimes it will reverse when its released. On CMC they categorise German data in its own bracket as this can move the EUR as Germany is basically the EU.

Jarrat and Nick trade the numbers this way as they are easy pips and what they call risk events.

For example I traded the UK employment release as soon as I saw the numbers ON CMC within 1 second of seeing it.

Does this makes sense?

This should help: https://www.jarrattdavisacademy.com/how-to-trade-economic-indicators/


PS. CAD/CHF could do like 800 pips in the next month if we get good nafta news also which means it would reach the high on the 1 week chart from where the CHF crashed
  • #575
  • May 7, 2018 8:00am May 7, 2018 8:00am
Quoting Samson85
Hi All, Now I did not intend to take a trade today as I still have my GBP/JPY short running. I also took a short during the NFP release on GBP/USD (Currently in 15 pip draw-down) which I decided to let run until up to Thursday if possible. I did in fact take Long early hours of this morning on WTI which spiked up 50+ pips after I took it Reason for this trade is US may pull out Iran deal, Saudi's want to see $80 per barrel and possible war tensions and oil cuts have been stated for the future. I have not decided how long I will hold this...
So I just closed my GBP/USD & GBP/JPY trades. Reason being is that dollar has pressured every pair but pound has been resilient and pressured the other currencies. 27 pip loss on cable & 12 pips lost gbp/JPY. With that said traders could be waiting until Thursdays BOE to really let loose on pound.

GBP/AUD has done over 100 pips today and is currently on a double bottom via the 1 day chart. With AUD currently being soft it maybe ideal to trade this tomorrow as it is on a pullback via the 1 day chart

My trades for tomorrow could be to buy against the AUD & CHF with the use of GBP or USD.

My oil trade though has done more than 80 pips today
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  • #576
  • May 7, 2018 8:04am May 7, 2018 8:04am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} So I just closed my GBP/USD & GBP/JPY trades. Reason being is that dollar has pressured every pair but pound has been resilient and pressured the other currencies. 27 pip loss on cable & 12 pips lost gbp/JPY. With that said traders could be waiting until Thursdays BOE to really let loose on pound. GBP/AUD has done over 100 pips today and is currently on a double bottom via the 1 day chart. With AUD currently being soft it maybe ideal to trade this tomorrow as it is on a pullback via the 1 day chart My trades for tomorrow could be to buy...
Very impressive stuff Samson. I hope to be the quality trader that you are one day. Txs for all your help Samson! P.S. My FA notes just keep growing......I have A LOT of good notes now....I read them over and over again hoping that they become second nature. Now only reading the articles everyday and watching how the market reacts to them will help now.
  • #577
  • May 7, 2018 8:07am May 7, 2018 8:07am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} So I just closed my GBP/USD & GBP/JPY trades. Reason being is that dollar has pressured every pair but pound has been resilient and pressured the other currencies. 27 pip loss on cable & 12 pips lost gbp/JPY. With that said traders could be waiting until Thursdays BOE to really let loose on pound. GBP/AUD has done over 100 pips today and is currently on a double bottom via the 1 day chart. With AUD currently being soft it maybe ideal to trade this tomorrow as it is on a pullback via the 1 day chart My trades for tomorrow could be to buy...
Hi,

Was reading most of the posts in this thread and I too do believe fundamentals form the major part as it does help know the strongest and the weakest currencies, but do fundamentals help the day traders? I have been Eikon users for 3 years but never tried it for Forex though as it isn't filtered that properly, apart from that tried bankersfx, EFX but hasn't helped me know. Does Ransquawk give news that isn't available usually apart from the economic calendar? I am a day trader, trading strongest against weakest using S/R and pivots that has been my strategy. Your insight would be helpful.
  • #578
  • May 7, 2018 9:07am May 7, 2018 9:07am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Very impressive stuff Samson. I hope to be the quality trader that you are one day. Txs for all your help Samson! P.S. My FA notes just keep growing......I have A LOT of good notes now....I read them over and over again hoping that they become second nature. Now only reading the articles everyday and watching how the market reacts to them will help now.

Dont get into the idea of taking too many notes as thats what I use to do.

What you have learnt needs applying and testing so do it on a demo account.

I will give you a head start:

The pairs good to buy are:

 

  1. USD/CHF
  2. CAD/CHF
  3. GBP/AUD
  4. OIL buying
  5. USD/MXN


shorting:

AUD/CAD
AUD/JPY
EUR/USD

The fundamnetal reasons will be available on forexlive.com in the central bank are I should imagien.

See how you get on and at the end of the week check your results.

Use this video to help to help you with your point of entry:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz6-8nQLRHM&t=312s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFnqSAnFrks


TBH as I am typing this to you it is making me realise that I am leaving alot of money on the table by not swing trading the above lol so Thanks

  • #579
  • May 7, 2018 9:11am May 7, 2018 9:11am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Dont get into the idea of taking too many notes as thats what I use to do. What you have learnt needs applying and testing so do it on a demo account. I will give you a head start: The pairs good to buy are: USD/CHF CAD/CHF GBP/AUD OIL buying USD/MXN shorting: AUD/CAD AUD/JPY EUR/USD The fundamnetal reasons will be available on forexlive.com in the central bank are I should imagien. See how you get on and at the end of the week check your results. Use this video to help to help you with your point of entry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz6-8nQLRHM&t=312s...
Great advice....thanks yet again! Practice Practice Practice.
  • #580
  • May 7, 2018 9:17am May 7, 2018 9:17am
Quoting shettytushar
{quote} Hi, Was reading most of the posts in this thread and I too do believe fundamentals form the major part as it does help know the strongest and the weakest currencies, but do fundamentals help the day traders? I have been Eikon users for 3 years but never tried it for Forex though as it isn't filtered that properly, apart from that tried bankersfx, EFX but hasn't helped me know. Does Ransquawk give news that isn't available usually apart from the economic calendar? I am a day trader, trading strongest against weakest using S/R and pivots that...
Lol the economic calendar is just the small part of the story.

Ransquawk makes you aware of:

 

  1. Trade wars between USA VS CHINA
  2. IRAN issues
  3. Nafta deal
  4. They provide central bankers speeches as they access to it just as about they begin to speak (This can cause a 100 pip move but you need to know how to interpret the speech)

and much more.


Livesquawk also offer the same service and both are available on a trial So you can have both combined for a month although my bias is with Ransqauwk of course lol

TBH swing trading does make more sense when trading fundamentals as it provides less headache but take into account sentiment comes in so one could argue you avoid more drawdown if you day trade.

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