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  • #581
  • May 7, 2018 9:27am May 7, 2018 9:27am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol the economic calendar is just the small part of the story. Ransquawk makes you aware of: Trade wars between USA VS CHINA IRAN issues Nafta deal They provide central bankers speeches as they access to it just as about they begin to speak (This can cause a 100 pip move but you need to know how to interpret the speech) and much more. Livesquawk also offer the same service and both are available on a trial So you can have both combined for a month although my bias is with Ransqauwk of course lol TBH swing trading does make more sense...
Thanks for guidance. Yes, I don't know if I would be right in interpreting the news very well. But will give it a try.
  • #582
  • May 7, 2018 9:38am May 7, 2018 9:38am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Dont get into the idea of taking too many notes as thats what I use to do. What you have learnt needs applying and testing so do it on a demo account. I will give you a head start: The pairs good to buy are: USD/CHF CAD/CHF GBP/AUD OIL buying USD/MXN shorting: AUD/CAD AUD/JPY EUR/USD The fundamnetal reasons will be available on forexlive.com in the central bank are I should imagien. See how you get on and at the end of the week check your results. Use this video to help to help you with your point of entry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz6-8nQLRHM&t=312s...
I have a feeling that if I have too many notes then I have too many sites/links that I visit for my FA. Here is a list of all the links I have saved for my FA. Maybe you could help me narrow down my list to only a select few that I could use on a daily basis so that I can avoid the "paralysis by analysis". Maybe others can also find this list of sites useful for their FA.......

https://www.forexlive.com/
https://www.fxstreet.com/
http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/
https://www.investing.com/analysis/forex
https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news
https://www.investing.com/analysis/
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies
https://www.bloomberg.com/
http://www.centralbanknews.info/
https://www.babypips.com/news
https://www.ft.com/markets/currenciestps://zerohedge.talking-forex.com/live.html
https://www.ft.com/
https://www.livesquawk.com/
https://www.wsj.com/news/types/central-banks
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/03/feds-qe-unwind-accelerates-sharply-2/
https://tradingeconomics.com/
https://tradingeconomics.com/stream
https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/inflation-targets.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180502a.htm
https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
http://www.miningweekly.com/page/latest-news
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/forex
https://www.forexsource.co/category/currency-market-analysis/
https://www.forexsource.co/
  • #583
  • May 7, 2018 9:42am May 7, 2018 9:42am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I have a feeling that if I have too many notes then I have too many sites/links that I visit for my FA. Here is a list of all the links I have saved for my FA. Maybe you could help me narrow down my list to only a select few that I could use on a daily basis so that I can avoid the "paralysis by analysis". Maybe others can also find this list of sites useful for their FA....... https://www.forexlive.com/ https://www.fxstreet.com/ http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/ https://www.investing.com/analysis/forex...

Loooool


https://www.forexlive.com/
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies <<<< But use the mobile app as you get way more articles
https://www.bloomberg.com/
https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
  • #584
  • May 7, 2018 9:45am May 7, 2018 9:45am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Loooool https://www.forexlive.com/ https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies <<<< But use the mobile app as you get way more articles https://www.bloomberg.com/ https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
LOL....I told you.....Paralysis by Analysis. Thanks for the MUCH SHORTER list! You're the man! The Cat's Meow! lol.
  • #585
  • May 7, 2018 9:49am May 7, 2018 9:49am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} LOL....I told you.....Paralysis by Analysis. Thanks for the MUCH SHORTER list! You're the man! The Cat's Meow! lol.
Trade those pairs I mentioned and see how you get on.

Also look at Forexin101's analysis on this page as it is very good
  • #586
  • May 7, 2018 9:55am May 7, 2018 9:55am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} So I just closed my GBP/USD & GBP/JPY trades. Reason being is that dollar has pressured every pair but pound has been resilient and pressured the other currencies. 27 pip loss on cable & 12 pips lost gbp/JPY. With that said traders could be waiting until Thursdays BOE to really let loose on pound. GBP/AUD has done over 100 pips today and is currently on a double bottom via the 1 day chart. With AUD currently being soft it maybe ideal to trade this tomorrow as it is on a pullback via the 1 day chart My trades for tomorrow could be to buy...

See I was right to close those shorts for GBP/USD (Broke today's high and up 30 points) & GBP/JPY (Up 50+ points)

There are rumours of the BOE having a hawkish tone come Thursday interest rate release, but dollar could still crush pound so may have to wait until Thursday to see the true picture. Articles can been on reuters and bloomberg for this stating a potential hike in August.
  • #587
  • May 7, 2018 9:59am May 7, 2018 9:59am
definitely agree that macro / fundamentals are what drive the market.

one question: how would you decide tp when you trade fundamentals?
  • #588
  • May 7, 2018 10:21am May 7, 2018 10:21am
Quoting baldmonk
definitely agree that macro / fundamentals are what drive the market. one question: how would you decide tp when you trade fundamentals?
For day trading using pivot points for targets works best and the previous days high as a target as well.

For swing trading you'll need to use the higher time frames as a target, in terms of the support and resistance, but it will depend how powerful the fundamental is.

If the central banks says we are hiking rates then expect 400-800 pip rally.

If a central bank announces Quantitative easing then expect the currency to tank possible 1000 pips.

Hopes this helps.
  • #589
  • May 7, 2018 10:25am May 7, 2018 10:25am
Quoting Samson85
{quote}Does this makes sense? This should help: https://www.jarrattdavisacademy.com/how-to-trade-economic-indicators/ PS. CAD/CHF could do like 800 pips in the next month if we get good nafta news also which means it would reach the high on the 1 week chart from where the CHF crashed
Yes, it makes sense, I will check out the CMC calendar. And yes the NAFTA will present some great oppurtunites to trade, I think it is this week when they will come to an agreement but I am guessing it will be a surprise announcement, how are you planning to take the trade?

And also there is the Iran deal on the 12th (Saturday) so literally, here just buy the rumour and sell the announcement!
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #590
  • May 7, 2018 10:38am May 7, 2018 10:38am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} Yes, it makes sense, I will check out the CMC calendar. And yes the NAFTA will present some great oppurtunites to trade, I think it is this week when they will come to an agreement but I am guessing it will be a surprise announcement, how are you planning to take the trade? And also there is the Iran deal on the 12th (Saturday) so literally, here just buy the rumour and sell the announcement!

The issue for me is this, I'm not sure if nafta will cause a big rally because poloz said its not nafta holding them back from hiking but I just hope the markets throw that comment in the bin as a lie and USD/CAD falls, but then again I think CAD/CHF makes the most sense to trade or AUD/CAD.

I will likely dive in as soon as I hear it via the squawk or if too late I will buy it in the morning because market drivers like that dont pull back too often. It will hit a R3 Pivot point as well so as long as its not too close to the pivot then I will buy it asap.

The Iran one is tricky because you never know with trump
  • #591
  • May 7, 2018 10:41am May 7, 2018 10:41am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Full article: https://think.ing.com/articles/our-bank-of-england-crib-sheet-may-rate-hike/
  • #592
  • May 7, 2018 11:12am May 7, 2018 11:12am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The issue for me is this, I'm not sure if nafta will cause a big rally because poloz said its not nafta holding them back from hiking but I just hope the markets throw that comment in the bin as a lie and USD/CAD falls, but then again I think CAD/CHF makes the most sense to trade or AUD/CAD. I will likely dive in as soon as I hear it via the squawk or if too late I will buy it in the morning because market drivers like that dont pull back too often. It will hit a R3 Pivot point as well so as long as its not too close to the pivot then I...
I think it is best to combine the NAFTA and Iran deal together based on how the pairs are so interlinked.

I will be going for bias that the NAFTA deal will go through and be trading off the rumour that the Iran deal will not go through by its deadline the 12th

Therefore the main pairs are a buy for the CAD and a weak pair would be the EUR/GBP based on its poor data/fundamentals of recent

Can I ask how the USD/CAD will fall on a good NAFTA deal if both countries are going to benefit, CAD/CHF will be very good however I am anxious of the risk sentiment sorounding the break down of the Iran deal, Iran is making some extreme threats and we all know how Trump deals with threats , AUD/CAD another good pair as well especially as the AUD is in a neutral stance in terms of raising interest rates but again the countires tie to Gold is a concern for changing risk sentiment, if think the challnege this weak will be trying to find the weak currency to compliment the CAD
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #593
  • May 7, 2018 11:23am May 7, 2018 11:23am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} ....poloz said its not nafta holding them back from hiking....
Did he explicitly state this? Or did he indicate by what he said in his speech last week?

Quoting Samson85
{quote}I think CAD/CHF makes the most sense to trade or AUD/CAD
I see why it may not be practical to pair against USD, but can you kindly say why you choose AUD?

Thanks.
  • #594
  • May 7, 2018 11:30am May 7, 2018 11:30am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} I think it is best to combine the NAFTA and Iran deal together based on how the pairs are so interlinked. I will be going for bias that the NAFTA deal will go through and be trading off the rumour that the Iran deal will not go through by its deadline the 12th Therefore the main pairs are a buy for the CAD and a weak pair would be the EUR/GBP based on its poor data/fundamentals of recent Can I ask how the USD/CAD will fall on a good NAFTA deal if both countries are going to benefit, CAD/CHF will be very good however I am anxious of the risk...
Canada needs this NAFTA deal much more than the US does hence why the US are strong arming them. If the NAFTA deal were to fall through then the BOC would have to cut rates because it would lead to lack of investment, loss of skilled workers and a drop in inflation. America are hiking rates right now regardless of a Nafta deal because at the end of the day everyone needs america due to their level of consumption hence why china are begging forgiveness.

I watched a seminar 2 weeks ago and the rates china have on the current tariffs is peanuts. China have been getting a bargain. I cant remember what the exact figures were but it was enough for trump to say the previous presidents had 0 clue. China will have to pay up!!

I think CAD/CHF is a safe bet. AUD/CAD does not move enough and you'll be wondering why you dont have double in your account. NZD/CAD is also an option.
  • #595
  • May 7, 2018 11:34am May 7, 2018 11:34am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Did he explicitly state this? Or did he indicate by what he said in his speech last week? {quote} I see why it may not be practical to pair against USD, but can you kindly say why you choose AUD? Thanks.
He said something along those lines at the press conference for the interest rate release a few weeks back. It was due to him not liking one of the figures for the CPI.


AUD is sensitive right now. They wont be hiking for a long time they have confirmed. With all the trade wars going on Australia is at serious risk. Who do they choose to surrender to China or USA lol. Australia is a commodity driven currency as well linked to copper, gold, oil etc.
  • #596
  • Edited 11:51am May 7, 2018 11:39am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} For day trading using pivot points for targets works best and the previous days high as a target as well. For swing trading you'll need to use the higher time frames as a target, in terms of the support and resistance, but it will depend how powerful the fundamental is. If the central banks says we are hiking rates then expect 400-800 pip rally. If a central bank announces Quantitative easing then expect the currency to tank possible 1000 pips. Hopes this helps.
Thank you sir. How many pairs are you trading with fundamentals?

I mainly trade cable. I find that there is an overwhelming amount of news and readings to cover just for this one pair. Boe, brexit, econ indicators, news, MP's take on whatever.... oh mine, i haven't touched USD side yet? I feel that the more I read, the wider my sl can be.

I'm interested to know your thoughts on this?
  • #597
  • May 7, 2018 11:52am May 7, 2018 11:52am
Quoting baldmonk
{quote} Thank you sir. How many pairs are you trading with fundamentals? I mainly trade cable. I find that there is an overwhelming amount of news and readings to cover just for this one pair. Boe, brexit, econ indicators, MP's take on whatever.... oh mine, i haven't touched USD side yet? I feel that the more I read, the better my sl can be. I'm interested to know your thoughts on this?

I agree with you on cable as it is a pair that you can solely make a living on as it has a good range and can be quite news driven.


GBP is fairly simple. Focus on what the central bank says. Brexit has been to pushed to one side for now and traders dont even respond that much to the news on it anymore. The USD side of cable is another job in itself but you just have to adapt.

GBP VS CHF is alot more quieter pair to trade.
  • #598
  • May 7, 2018 11:55am May 7, 2018 11:55am
I would recommend watching this Fundamental trade example. Although the guy is trading shares, how he carried out the trade is the exact same way a fundamental trader would apply it in Forex. So if you want to know how to enter a trade based of the news this is a good example.

The execution on the trade was really good in terms of support/resistance, profit taking, interpreting the news and adding to it

Let me know what you think of it and whether it helps.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5a4wMJEF4Do
  • #599
  • May 7, 2018 12:10pm May 7, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting forexin101
{quote} I think it is best to combine the NAFTA and Iran deal together based on how the pairs are so interlinked. I will be going for bias that the NAFTA deal will go through and be trading off the rumour that the Iran deal will not go through by its deadline the 12th...
I think we'll more likely get an outcome from the Iran situation first before NAFTA, right?

But then, how much actual damage to Oil will a collapse of the Iran deal cause? Is it probably a more solid trade to play it from the risk-off angle?
  • #600
  • May 7, 2018 12:12pm May 7, 2018 12:12pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Loooool https://www.forexlive.com/ https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies <<<< But use the mobile app as you get way more articles https://www.bloomberg.com/ https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
Have you ever tried FXWatcher and FXWW Connect? Any views you have about them as they both provide fundamental reports.
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