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Predictions on the JPY news today?

  • #21
  • Oct 1, 2006 7:25pm Oct 1, 2006 7:25pm
Hi Merlin, I don't know about this BoJ/MoF intervention. In the monthly statistics their hasn't been any intervention for over two years minimum (at least no active buying of euros or dollars). With the yen so cheap as it is (see chart), the new gvt are unlikely to ruffle international feathers by further cheapening the currency - the yen is already very cheap, and with the economy pulling out of the doldrums quite nicely, intervention at this stage prob can't be justified.

http://www.economist.com/images/20060930/CFN357.gif

Net net, I like the yen, and I think the report is generally pretty supportive but I'll never understand the yen as say the EUR, USD or GBP ... but judging by Fin Min's Omi's recent comments, he doesn't get it either !

"Always bet on black"
  • #22
  • Oct 1, 2006 7:29pm Oct 1, 2006 7:29pm
abo the US and Euro governments have been hassling the hell out of the BOJ to let their currency rise for the past year. Secretary Snow made explicit comments a few weeks back about them. and the BOJ even admits they manipulate the currency, check out this link...
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/schedule/kohyo.htm

see where it says "Bank of Japan Operations in the Money Markets"? that means SELL YEN! LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #23
  • Oct 1, 2006 7:42pm Oct 1, 2006 7:42pm
seems to be going pretty strong at the opening of the trading today. I know that i shorted as much as i could at 118.20. looks like it is heading back that way though.
  • #24
  • Oct 1, 2006 8:26pm Oct 1, 2006 8:26pm
talk about taking off
  • #25
  • Oct 1, 2006 8:32pm Oct 1, 2006 8:32pm
I don't know what to expect but I've been bouncing all over with the EURJPY -- I'm ashamed to admit I'm still doing trades that amount to "uh, looks like a down trend to me, let's short"....so I was shorting when it spiked down, then realized there was a news release just in time to watch it spike up, then I tried a counter trade and watched the two duke it out a bit, only to mistakenly decide to keep the short and dump the buy -- after which of course it really shot up.

So after a bit (during a down trend) I dumped the sell and did another buy shortly thereafter, and making a modest profit at the moment. Thankfully this is all in a demo account.

I am learning that I really do better as a trader if I set up the trade and then remove myself from the room. Oh, I have nowhere to go but up.

(diallist don't read this...)
  • #26
  • Oct 1, 2006 8:42pm Oct 1, 2006 8:42pm
Quoting gmv
I don't know what to expect but I've been bouncing all over with the EURJPY -- I'm ashamed to admit I'm still doing trades that amount to "uh, looks like a down trend to me, let's short"....so I was shorting when it spiked down, then realized there was a news release just in time to watch it spike up, then I tried a counter trade and watched the two duke it out a bit, only to mistakenly decide to keep the short and dump the buy -- after which of course it really shot up.

So after a bit (during a down trend) I dumped the sell and did another buy shortly thereafter, and making a modest profit at the moment. Thankfully this is all in a demo account.

I am learning that I really do better as a trader if I set up the trade and then remove myself from the room. Oh, I have nowhere to go but up.

(diallist don't read this...)
That's right. Don't watch it. Before you know it, 117.00 will be on the screen again, at which point you'll have already gotten out because you at least broke even, then wish you'd stayed short on it. I am short at 118.10.
  • #27
  • Oct 1, 2006 9:32pm Oct 1, 2006 9:32pm
i thought i was going to get hosed. i left my orders in and now seems to be coming down a little. needs to break support at 118.20 now
  • #28
  • Oct 1, 2006 9:52pm Oct 1, 2006 9:52pm
Quoting bmwboyee
i thought i was going to get hosed. i left my orders in and now seems to be coming down a little. needs to break support at 118.20 now
Well you can always choke it up to a failed trade, take the loss, and sleep better (if you are in the US).

I have a hint now it may try for 118.60 before retracing.
  • #29
  • Oct 1, 2006 9:59pm Oct 1, 2006 9:59pm
i don't believe that 118.60 before retrace. that is just me. i am not going to take the loss yet. if i would have before i would have been 1/2 down what i am now. i think that it turns and will fill my t/p. Just need the RSI to fall
  • #30
  • Oct 1, 2006 10:08pm Oct 1, 2006 10:08pm
Quoting bmwboyee
i don't believe that 118.60 before retrace. that is just me. i am not going to take the loss yet. if i would have before i would have been 1/2 down what i am now. i think that it turns and will fill my t/p. Just need the RSI to fall
I didn't think the 118.60 would be possible either. I hope you are right.
  • #31
  • Oct 1, 2006 10:12pm Oct 1, 2006 10:12pm
I don't know Beemer! The weekly looks like it has some running room. A break above 18.50 will trigger some buying. Of course, it will eventually return to your level. Might need an Ambien tonight though!
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Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #32
  • Oct 2, 2006 5:46am Oct 2, 2006 5:46am
Quoting merlin
abo the US and Euro governments have been hassling the hell out of the BOJ to let their currency rise for the past year. Secretary Snow made explicit comments a few weeks back about them. and the BOJ even admits they manipulate the currency, check out this link...
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/schedule/kohyo.htm

see where it says "Bank of Japan Operations in the Money Markets"? that means SELL YEN! LOL
It's so true that the rest of the world want the yen to reduce in value, but I don't think the G7 members aren't barking up the cheaper yen tree so much as they are calling for the inflexible regimes to move toward a more mkt orientated approach (ie they want China to get a move on with the peg - personally, I think their gradual appreciation approach is not too bad). I look at these statistics when judging whether any intervention is taking place: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/e1c021.htm because the direction comes from the MoF at all times. I think money market operations refer to the injection and withdrawal of liquidity into the system primarily through fixed income instruments (that's how the BoE does it). So, even though the yen has been getting cheaper, the G7 can't rightly complain, as it is a free mkt price. The other reason I think the MoF/BoJ are not intervening is that when they used to step in the market, it would be blatently obvious in the price action as well as traders screaming 'intervention' at the tops of their voices. The pattern back then was for verbal intervention to be followed actual intervention - hence making it a credible threat - but despite creating short-term spikes, all they seemed to do was to slow the trend for yen appreciation, not reverse it. As central banks have learned to their cost, you can't fight the market price.
"Always bet on black"
  • #33
  • Oct 2, 2006 9:11am Oct 2, 2006 9:11am
Gang, I have to tell you, i was sweating bullets. I left my orders open and was down pretty pretty bad. but it finally broke just like I thought and my t/p was filled at 117.78. I had 10 mini lots out on it might not be much for some, but it was a lot for me My lowest entry was 118.09 and my highest was 118.35.
  • #34
  • Oct 2, 2006 9:24am Oct 2, 2006 9:24am
Nice Trade Beemer


Quoting bmwboyee
Gang, I have to tell you, i was sweating bullets. I left my orders open and was down pretty pretty bad. but it finally broke just like I thought and my t/p was filled at 117.78. I had 10 mini lots out on it might not be much for some, but it was a lot for me My lowest entry was 118.09 and my highest was 118.35.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #35
  • Oct 2, 2006 9:29am Oct 2, 2006 9:29am
Thanks man, I think it continues downward but I just wanted out with my profit after I about had a heart attack I think it could see low 117's. IMO
  • #36
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:56pm Oct 3, 2006 6:56pm
Hah, our talk of intervention seemed rather prescient. EUR/JPY got whipped about earlier on talk of MoF intervention, but this was talk of intervention to strengthen the yen, not weaken it! What I didn't mention before is that intervention generally fails unilaterally but is more effective mulilaterally, and the rumour was that the ECB were also monitoring EUR/JPY. If both ECB and MoF/BoJ acted in concert, this would create havoc. Its all just trader rumours reinforced by a Jiji newswire story (no official names cited, mind!).

I really see no pressing need for intervention at current prices, not even to dampen volatility. After all the G7 talk and commitment to mkt prices, this would be a real about face. Until we see real rhetoric on this topic, best bet is to fade these kinds of rumours.
"Always bet on black"
  • #37
  • Last Post: Oct 3, 2006 7:06pm Oct 3, 2006 7:06pm
Japan has soo much money. We face a dilemna:

Dilemna 1: Weak Yen
If yen weakens, that will be favorable to their economy. Their export industry would kick harder than a bull.

Dilemna 2: Strong Yen
If yen strengthens, they can easily go out buying US, Europe businesses at dirt cheap price! They own a movie outfit (Paramount?); whats next? Boeing? Ford?

Best choice: (just for laugh )
Yen = 0 USD
Yen = 0 EUR
Yen = 0 GBP
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