This weeks GBP/JPY Analysis & Predictions

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We had a good strategy trade on Last Friday NY around 232.80 area. I personally did not take the trade simply because it was a Friday NY I'm hoping for a weekend dip to go long for 200 pip trade. My target is 234.80. However since we have the daily support (QQE daily crossed upwards and confirmed) we may see the price will reach 235.80 (300 pips from the entry) area on Monday or Tuesday before it comes down for a retracement.

Posted by Hakuna Matata http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...0582&page=1036

Posted By Hakuna Matata http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...0582&page=1036

Posted by Zoran 08/24 Friday @ 07.55 AM GMT http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...0582&page=1033

Posted by brucehvn 08/23 Thursday @ 11.36GMT

Interesting idea for a thread. I hope it works out and thanks for including me on the list.

I have noticed a couple of important news items which may impact traders actions next week. First is the news that the federal reserve waived the rules that limited the amount of reserves that citigroup and bank of america could lend to their brokerage affiliates. Citibank and BOA can lend up to 25 billion each to their affliantes. these loans will be for mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities, and other securities which have questionable value at this point. This is potentially a big deal, as it puts the two largest US banks at much more risk from the current mortgage crisis.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/24/maga...ion=2007082417

The second important news story is the apparent agreement to sell the german state lender SachsenLB, as a direct result of the financial crisis the lender is having. This is unprecented in Germany and is likely to create an interesting week in Europe.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070825/...lb_subprime_dc

I think it is a given that there will be a lot of uncertainty in the currency markets this week, and this is not a time to be making large or risky trades. I personally am still very bearish, and I am still targeting 210 for GJ in the very near future.

Posted by MAJD on 08/26 Sunday @ 8.52 am GMT http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...0582&page=1039

Posted by MAJD on Sunday 08/26 @ 8.56am GMT. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...0582&page=1039

Yup, interesting idea for a thread, thx for the invite, Auslanco.
I'll pass on my ideas when I can.

4hr channel: top 236.85, middle 233.58 (bottom of this channel is d least of my concerns right now, we have the 38.2 fib b4 we get there).
Also based on a couple systems (Simple Daily System, Mouteki) here on FF lining up @ mkt close on friday. Plus 5SMA is acting as a super support guidance looking at the last 13 1hr candles on Auslanco's system. A long play is definitely worth a shot.

Good luck and skill to all (but of course, luck mostly have nothing to do with it .

JPY FIRMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TOKYO MORNING AS JAPANESE EXPORTERS START BUYING THE CURRENCY - WIRE CITING TRADERS


FED RATE OUTLOOK: TRADERS KEEPING AN EYE ON BERNANKE'S SPEECH ABOUT HOME FINANCING ON FRIDAY, TO LOOK FOR HINTS ON WHETHER FED WILL HAVE A RATE CUT ON SEP 18

USD TRADING FOR THE REST OF 2007: OVERALL THE DOLLAR HAS RISING CYCLES THROUGH TO THE END OF THIS YEAR AGAINST BOTH THE YEN AND THE EUROPEAN CURRENCIES - IAN COPSEY AT GFT


DOWNSIDE TARGET: CHARTISTS SAYING THAT IF USD/JPY DIPPED BELOW 115.57 THAT IT WILL INDICATE THE USD/JPY REBOUND HAS POSSIBLY BEEN COMPLETED - WIRES


UK) LONDON'S BANKING SYSTEM HAS A GROWING BACKLOG OF SHORT-TERM LOANS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT $25B - SUNDAY TELEGRAPH

Wednesday 29/August

1hr , 30 min QQE in oversold level.. Both those indicators have to cross up (off the oversold level) and cross back down for a another big bearish move.
If the 1 hr cross upwards we will see the price retracement up to daily 5 SMA(231.40 area) to find more sellers before it's shooting down again.. If the 4hr QQE cross upwards during the retracemnt , then it's a short term trend change

29th Wednesday

Update for August 29.

I started to write some big long discussion about how this situation is unique, but I don't have a week to spend on it. Basically, we have been running a 35 year experiment in fiat currencies and trade policies aimed at minimizing labor, capital and raw material costs. This experiment, at least in the developed countries, has benefited the rich, the banks, and the major corporations.

The system required exponential growth of both currency and energy in order to sustain itself. We have peaked in oil production (40% of global energy usage), and the exponential growth of currency has peaked and now must crash. The best case outcome from this crash will be a depression, currency collapse of all major currencies, and a drastic reduction in global trade. A worst case outcome is going to war, civilization collapse, the death of 90% of the worlds population, and a return to a middle ages standard of living for most of the remaining 10%

As far as what is going to happen the rest of the week, stock markets will be down and we are going to see increasing signs of panic. The steady drop in the US markets from opening to closing, with no retrace efforts, showed to me that a significant pullback from the equity markets has begun. This money will not come back into the market quickly.

Hi Aus.

I saw my ID on the list on the first post. I am not sure if i deserve to be there as I noticed no one or very few were actually interested in EW Counts for this Pair.

Anyway, I am posting a chart here and if you feel that I should remove it.... just let me know by PM or here. And that wuld still be fine with me.

This is specially because I know in the main thread that your position is for a Long Trade. This Chart i am posting is more of the Short Trade.

EG

Here's the daily chart with the fibs, the first try to break the 50% level failed, we have a bullish engulfing candle, we might be going for another try and if it successfully breaks, we will see 238.80 which is my 2nd TP.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/1627/gjlk5.gif

thanks for the invitation aus

would like to add to karmo's chart. here's another one with a fibo drawn from 244.07 towards the bottom 219.32.

take a look at how many attempts there was to close over the 61.8 line...

i guess a close over that line would mean up up up... way up...

I posted this on the main discussion thread, but it will be 30 pages back in an hour, so I thought I would post over here also.

I've been thinking about this plan that bush and the feds are dreaming up. Obviously they are carefully rolling it out try and maximize the short term impact on stock and currency markets. My guess is that it will work and we will see a big rally tomorrow. But lets think about what they can actually do.

As best I can tell, they are looking at the following items.

Utilize FHA to allow distressed homeowners to refinance mortgages that they otherwise could get out of. This might help the people that have high interest ARMs that they can't get out of because of credit problems, and who are living in houses that they could pay for at a lower interest rates. Unfortunately, that is a very small fraction of the people in trouble. Most of the people in trouble owe substantially more than the current value of the house. They will not be able to get a loan to pay of their current loan. Then there is the second problem. Even if the government loans them more than the current value of their home, they couldn't pay even the principle back on the loan. They have only kept their houses up to now because prices have been increasing 10% a year and they have pulled cash out every year.

The second item is tax forgiveness for short sales, and forclosures. That is a great idea, for Joe Citizen. Right now, even if he declares bankruptcy and turns over the keys to his house to the bank, he gets hit with a big tax bill for whatever loss the bank has on his loan. With tax relief, it becomes a lot, lot easier for people to just walk away from their house. That is bad for home prices, bad for banks and bad for government revenues. Therefore, this provision absolutely will not happen.

The third item is talking about developing new loan programs. The goal is obviously to try and keep home prices up. What they will be looking at are things like 50 year loans, and loans where a portion of the principal is not paid back until the house is sold and where the bank takes a portion of the appreciation at the end of the loan. These ideas only work if home prices keep appreciating at rates well above the inflation rate. In other words, they can't work.

Sorry about the long rant, but it is obvious to me that they cannot fix this problem. It all goes back to my arguement that our economy only works as long as the supply of money increases exponentially. In the case of housing, our current system only works if home prices always increase faster than the rate of inflation. We have only had one year where home prices havent increased, and you can see that our home lending/banking system is already falling apart. One more year, and it will have basically collapsed.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif