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GBP/USD predictions for today upon upcoming news-Is this analysis right?

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  • First Post: Sep 6, 2012 3:20am Sep 6, 2012 3:20am
  •  Arav007
  • | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
For GBP:

1. 7.00 a.m.- Asset Purchase Facility.

For previous 5 months, it remained Unchanged. Today, also forecasted to be Unchanged
Possible Actual(Forecasted): 375B-Previous: 375B.

Possible Change - No Major Change is expected.

2.
7.00 a.m.- Official Bank Rate.

For previous 5 months, it remained Unchanged. Today, also forecasted to be Unchanged
0.50%-0.50%

-No Major Change is expected.

3.
7.00 a.m.- MPC Rate Statement.
More hawkish than expected = Good for currency

For USD:

1. 8.15 a.m. -ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

Though July and August seen a growth in Actual amount, today is forecasted to be declined in Actual. Probably the recent US economical condition is encouraging this decision.
142K-163K


- USD will be weaken, so a Bull can be expected.

2. 8.30 a.m.- Unemployment Claims.

Though previous Two months seen a growth in Actual amount (which is BAD for currency), today it's forecasted to be lower than Forecasted (which is GOOD for currency).
369K-374B

- A Bullish nature can be expected that time.

3.
10.00 a.m.-ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

A slight declined changed is forecasted (52.5-52.6), so, it's not GOOD for USD.

-If the Actual comes out higher than 53, then a strong Bullish change can be expected.

So, from the upcoming news and their importance, it can be expected that from 7-8 a.m. GBP-USD pair will be Bullish. Then after the USA releases, a Decline can be expected. Especially, if the Unemployment Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI come out in the Favor of USD, then a Strong decline will be seen.

So, what do you think? Have you already any data that can change the Forecasted values totally Opposite direction? Let us know your thoughts.
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