Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

Down we go hopefully.

A word of warning. Dax of late has become even more ' fakey ' than it normally is, meaning that the overall majority of the main moves are beginning with a vicious kick the other way. We saw it this morning at the Frankfurt open, and we saw it again just now with that little kick up to 590. You need to have reliable S&R levels to get them and to recognize them for what they are, but if you can spot them, they are a fantastic give away and a great entry opportunity.

My support level just to repeat was and still is around S2 today, at 504, with the 30m 200ema just above @ 520. That's if it can break below this 15m 200ema which continues to be very stubborn.

If anyone is wondering what this support is, I've got S1 @552, and I've got the 20m 200sma @ 550, both of which can act as temporary support usually, but not permanent. The way it looks right now, this should go lower. even though it may pull back a bit from here.

Looks like it's going to that kind of day. She wants drop, but the support is just too strong.

My two day Dow chart is looking prettt bullish actually, and it is showing Dow likely to lift to around 450, 500, if not this week, then next. If this is the case, then obviously the Dax is not going to drop.

What did I say above about those sudden counter Dax moves to S&R levels. How to tell whether they are genuine moves, or fakes? As I said, you've got to be strong with your S&R levels, because if you don't have levels you can trust, then you are lost anyway. If you do have these levels, then I've already identified today that today's CP areas was the most likely resistance level. So when these sudden counter moves happen, wait until the move shows signs of exhaustion, and you'll need a time frame down to 1m for this, so if your smallest is 5 or 10 mins, you're not going to be able to time an entry on any of these very accurately. Wait until there have been two or three negative candles following the white ones, but before these, wait until you get a bit of sideways movement irrespective of candle colour, just beneath the resistance level. Then look at candle formation, as a shooting star or two coming off resistance is a great place to go short.

You can also wait until the 20sma is breached by the first candle, and put your stop above the Bollinger.

Hope that helps some people a little bit . Good luck.

and for those wanting more information on those resistance levels today, that combination of the 100 and 200sma on the 10m tf is always going to provide very strong resistance coming over the top of the price like that. If you're on the 30m tf, then look at the 100sma - the price came off that with pinpoint precision.

Today's support for me is much less well defined, and I'm not really sure what is holding it up, which usually means that it has further to fall, even today.

GER30_19_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4jedX8pA/

Horrible pa, but I'm bullish today up to around 607-620. Support so far, both yesterday and continuing today, has been my H1 100sma.

I should add that's if the 15/20m 200sma moving average which has come over the top to act as resistance ( 580 on the 20m tf ) can break. Once resistance is reached, the price could drop back again quite fast.

GER30_20_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UqOUZKfW/

GER30_23-APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RqrSeYrC/

If Dax can get above where it is right now ( 595 ) I've got potentially strong resistance on today's R1 @ 624, and above that around R2 @671.

Hi Barao, I guess others have asked the same question. What indicators are you using on your charts?

GER30_24_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8AHmkfJ/

I've got Dax entering a support zone now at around 350-336, but watch Dow, because if that breaks yesterday's low, these markets could tumble some more.

Dow double bottomed, but can it hold?

No. .a pullback and break in play.

Why don't you also trade the Dow in the afternoon?

Oh I do, not always , but often.

Hanging on by the skin of their teeth aren't they, but on the weekly, both Dax and Dow have a lot further to fall. Any pull back now is likely to be only temporary.

For all those not too familiar with the Dow, big pips can be made trading it, but often technicals go out of the window as it has a habit of rallying hard out of nowhere, especially of late, so be careful.

You also don't need me to tell you that you need a much bigger SL for the Dow, so minimum 30 if entering on just a 1m tf, as opposed to the Dax which requires normally a minimum of 15 pips. Dow just rallied 180 pips from the low, which demonstrates just how far it moves in no time at all.