Cable Update (GBPUSD)

waiting for lower now 142 looks like a break even trade potentially one of three so going to wait for lower and the second position trade then the third .. if it heads north then there is always tomorrow ..

confused

Just see PA go down mrpresident

Will hopefully know more end of day.
May not touch for rest of this month and just wait for May to come around.
March was a bullish setup but currently have conflicting signals.
Exercising patience.

Hi Nala, just watching where you draw your horizontal lines, it seems to me there are many peaks and troughs you could draw them from.
It's unclear to me why you select the ones you do. You often draw them from mini peaks and trough and not necessarily the major ones such as in this quoted example of yours.
Personally, I still don't know what you are referring to when you say the average or average price, (is it a moving average?).

Although, the daily is certainly bearish.
Likely to see a retest of the recently broken 4hr TL.

Yeah, looks like bull trap triggered.
If we see 3965 again, then structurally, sub 37 on the cards IMO.

No not just any peak or trough it has to a be specific one where the bulls or bears FIND support.

Everyone seems to have trouble with the notion of FINDING support because they are conditioned to believing a top is resistance and a bottom is support, which they are of course but not the specific levels I am looking for, If tops and bottoms were S/R then we would see a great deal of double or triple tops but we don't see that at all and when we do it is most often down to some other reason. By looking left we can see a kind of range regarded as a S/R zone and often this is true but not quite.

I keep saying the bulls or bears have to FIND support for their action and the opposition is always trying to stop this action by taking out the support and so it becomes a resistance level to be defended. Thus support and resistance has nothing to do with with being on top or below, just as in a soccer match both sides have defense which put up resistance and both side have attacks which have targets or goal objectives. I know that when we see GBP/USD the former tops are regarded as resistance and the latter bottoms are regarded as supports. This is where I differ from the rest of the world, I regard this as a nonsense, the soccer analogy works far better for me.

Now as for these specific FOUND supports... When price crosses the EMA (which is exactly the same as crossing the RSI 50% level), it then makes a retest pull back and if this retest fails then they have found support regardless of whether they are bulls or bears, United or City, Red shirts or Blue i.e the center forwards are on the attack with a goal in mind. So this is not just any pivot it is a specific one, it may take two or more down bars to form the pivot support for the bulls like the half backs looking for an opportunity to pass to the forwards.

Below is an example marked by a vertical black line. The bears passed below and the bulls failed to get back so the bears have FOUND support. Now it doesn't matter from this point on Price cannot get back above it yet even though the RSI (circled) passes above and below the 50% level, the bulls cannot FIND support and hold onto it.

Now we look to what the bears are trying to achieve i.e. where is the goal. Well the first thing is to destroy the oppositions defense so they take out the bull support dragging the EMA along with the price we see the average is trying to make the LL and will not let the bulls make an average HH just yet. We watch for the bulls turning to attack and would see them FIND support above the average and then attempt to take out the oppositions defense. All this time the EMA is creeping lower and lower and will often suddenly spring to life and shoot for goal (the impulse bar)

So now we see indeed price has made the average and now the bulls go on the defense to try and stop the EMA making the LL, no signals for entries now, this would have just been the exit from the short where the bears found support, a long and tiring journey for 30 pips or so.

This is precisely why it is better to trade during the more volatile times when the action is much faster.

I forgot to mention there is another bull support below (green line) so a break to the down side would be headed for that.

For today looking at the 1 hour chart we would be looking for the bears to make an attack on the 40832 bear support as it attempts at the same time to make the average LL by dragging the EMA behind it. Price hasn't closed below this average yet so no commitment just yet.

Or are the bulls going to stop the EMA and target the 43226.

The story will unfold and give signals.

Notice how the major moves tend to begin at the same time each day.

Whoops! I have missed off a bear support 42389 so that tells me this bull support will be taken out.

Cleared 1.4210 and went up to 1.4240 region which became resistance. 1.4203 as weekly pivot staying as support should see it bounce from here, otherwise it will contend with 1.4187 region which it did.... a decision will soon be made for the next move, statistically a low compared to yesterday could be in the making either today or tomorrow.

As long as 1.4208 remains as strong resistance, more downside likely

GBPUSD for today

GU H4

The majority of central banks is struggling with the continued slow rise in inflation. An interesting trend has now been emerging recently: in the US inflation has picked up moderately as expected. In wide parts of Europe on the other hand inflation disappointed last month. Should this divergence in the development in prices continue that would be a strong argument in favour of the US dollar. As Sterling’s reaction to the weaker price data yesterday demonstrated: an emerging monetary policy normalisation constitutes strong support for many currencies at present, which would disappear though if inflation did not rise sufficiently. Overall I consider monetary policy to constitute a stronger underlying driver than it may seem at present in view of the eventful (geo) political situation. The development of rate expectations also partially explains the recently comparatively weak performance of the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc. Of course there are always different factors as well that overshadow monetary policy developments and thus also drive exchange rates, as the oil price for the Norwegian krone or the NAFTA negotiations for the Canadian dollar. I nonetheless see an important driver of exchange rate developments in monetary policy.

In addition to the weak inflation data there was also good news for Sterling yesterday. The British House of Lords yesterday voted in favour of a change to the EU exit bill according to which remaining in the customs union is to remain an option for the UK. Even though the decision was a hard blow for the government, as it had excluded this option beforehand. The market on the other hand is likely to have received it positively as remaining in the customs union would constitute a smaller change to the status quo, so that the economic consequences of Brexit would also be more limited. Moreover it would also constitute a solution to the question of the Irish border, an issue on which the British government has so far failed to provide an alternative solution. The government does not now have to actively promote membership in the customs union in the negotiations with the EU but the pressure applied by those who favour a “soft” Brexit is likely to rise further as a result.

Ok thx Nala, I understand more now.
Cheers.

It was a good opportunity to short the pair this week.

Tried to close above 1.4208 on the H1 failed, and it did made a lower low compared to yesterday.

Statistics has its use....hahaha

Likely to test region at 1.41895 to see if resistance is there. Need hourly to close low for more downside