Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

GER30_11_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7KZpd964/

GER30_12_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JYV2nr0J/

Could be a big turnaround coming up on Dax around 550-580...600, or actually anywhere from here, though it may rise a bit more up to those levels. Be vigilant!

Hi Cat, was it the resistance on the daily that led you to expect the turnaround or something else I fail to see?
Thanks
D

Two things. Firstly the Daily 200ema resistance. I'd been expecting that to be challenged all week. The second was on my smaller charts, most notably my H1, where my moving averages were positioned in bearish fashion, with a smaller one crossing above a higher one which is always bearish, even if the price continues to rise a bit. The next thing i look for for confirmation is if there is any MACD diversion going on anywhere, and the price was rising as my 5 and 10m MACD was falling. The next thing I look for is candle formation. As a multi time frame trader I can hone in on an entry from the larger time frames to the smaller. Again, moving average positioning helps me do this, and they give me clear signals when and when not to consider taking a trade. I think going further than this will only confuse, as I do take my entires off a 20 second time frame, much smaller than most, but it may help you just to say that whilst the price remained well above the 10m 20sma, I would not take any shorts, but as it drops close to it, aided by my smaller time frames, I get a confirmation of a trade. So, if you look, there was a very nice shooting star which closed just above the 10m 20sma, closing 14.20 UK time, and this was a very strong sell signal, not just for me, but for other traders as well. The next candle was a doji, and then the price plummeted.

Exit? Again, I use my moving averages to gauge momentum and volume, and then I pick the big ones, so the 200s, to exit. The 10m 200ema was the one I wanted today, because I wasn't expecting a massive fall, unless of course, some news on Syria came out, so when it stalled on the 10m 200ema, I cut my position.

Quite a long answer to your question I know, but yes, the main resistance level was that Daily 200ema which I have at 555-560.

ps - Dax can fall a lot further from here, but, the trend on the higher frames, above H2, is still up, so it could continue higher through that Daily resistance. Looking at my weekly chart, there is definitely room for more up movement, up to around 650 in fact, so we'll see next week. There is still time for further down movement tonight, as the Dow is looking a bit precarious, but short of any news, there shouldn't be too much happening on a Friday evening.

However, if war kicks off in Syria anytime over the weekend, then I'll wish I kept my short open. Dangerous times!

Thanks Cat, I appreciate the detailed answer. I barely touched the Dax and it is comforting to see it is traded as FX give or take a few specifics I guess.

Have a great weekend
D

Dax30 (Monthly)

Hello everybody ...

just an opinion of mine : I don't see red arrows on the horizon yet

... said otherwise ...

if correct ...
... (it remains to be seen) ...
... the Elliottian chart would say that ...
... we are inside the third wave (3co) mother of bull market,
... inside the third one (3co (3co)),
... inside its fifth one (5 (3co (3co))) ,
... within its fourth one (4 (5 (3co (3co))))

and waiting for its fifth one (5 (5 (3co (3co)))) @ 11K approx (TP 14k)

here the template

Dax30 (Daily)

we are inside an AbC correction = a(a)+b(a)+c(a)+b1+b2+b3co+b4+b5+a(c)+b(c)+c(c)
(precisely in b5 wave : if the wave will end @ 12.8k,
the fifth one alias (5 (5 (3co (3co)))) would start @ 11.2K)

GER30_13_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IAFeDJFJ/

Dax has a bullish technical set up as I look at it now on Sunday evening. I actually never like to post TA for Monday over the weekend, as you just never know what can happen, and of course the Syria strikes may well affect what happens, and there's the chance of a big gap down or perhaps even up.

I'd say though, going on just the technicals, that 500 will be challenged tomorrow, and I have pretty strong potential resistance around that level if it gets there.

You are welcome darko. Yes, it can pretty much be traded the same way. Every pair or indecis has its own personality of course, but for me they all conform more or less to the same technical parameters.

Any Daxers wondering what it is going to do now after gapping up 100 pips, the resistance on Friday evening was my 15m 200ema @ 12,404, so that is still the one to watch if it comes down. Potential resistance now I have multiple levels, beginning with where the price is now on the 23.6% fib, next one being the 38,2% @ 512, and the most likely one being the 61.8% @ 530 if it can get back up there. I'm not ruling out higher, but those are my levels for now. I think there's a very good chance it could come down today, even if it pops up at the London open. I'll post lower potential support levels if it does.

Next potential support level for me if this 15m 200ema/sma ( 430 ) breaks will be today's S1 @ 390.

GER30_16_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sr1J00UD/

GER30_17_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uB8kZfvs/

GER30_18_APRIL_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Ncktf6u/

Dax caught on my 15m 200ema support currently. I'm expecting it to go lower today, to around today's S2 pivot which I have @ 503. I'm watching the Dow as well, because as long as the Dow keeps rising, Dax can continue to ramp up as it has been doing as soon as it falls a little bit. The level I am watching on the Dow is the Daily 100sma @ 25,000, and I have been expecting it to reach that marker all week. Whether it does or not remains to be seen. From there is can fall back, or go higher I think to 25,500. Dax though is right up there at the moment among what should be some pretty formidable resistanc, and it is really just Dow bullishness which is keeping it propped up.

In short, a big fall is building, it's just a ? of when, but I'm watching the Dow closely.

Dow looks set to drop atm, and Dax looks to be clinging on by its fingernails. We may get a rally by the Dow later, but it has to drop first surely?

Dax H1 candle is closing in 7 mins, and right now, it's a big , fat shooting star, so price could plummet upon its closure?

God this slow market is killing me!

Today's CP ( 596 ) is the resistance level atm, and I have a whole heap of R just above it, so longs beware of that level I would say.