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Never Go Against the Trend?

  • #81
  • Apr 10, 2018 1:37am Apr 10, 2018 1:37am
Quoting redoktober
{quote} hahaha , a "programmer" as clown Master-Mind that gives his judgment about a serious indicator like Awesome Oscillator ... Please, look at some Master-Mind's chaotic & useless indicators : {image} {image} FF members , please don't pay any attention to this mentally deficient person.
Could you please share the first indicator/dashboard?
Thank you.
  • #82
  • Apr 10, 2018 7:08am Apr 10, 2018 7:08am
Quoting hanover
{quote}Respectfully disagree with both you and HiddenGap; unless some physical bias (unbalanced wheel, the way croupier releases the ball, etc) exists, all spins are independent, random events, and past streaks are predictively meaningless; the house edge always remains 2/38 (5.26%) for wheels with both 0 and 00, or 1/37 (2.70%) for wheels with only 0, no matter what strategy you use. Which is why the casino will always win eventually (more here)....
Interesting conversation. Totally agree, I lost the last time I sat down and played until the house had an edge. Therefore the best plan is to play only until you win!

Okay, so by mathematical advantage, you are referring to the BET SELECTION part of the process and not the actual BET amount eg. Martingale, correct?

I'm not claiming any mathematical advantage or even know how that might work; only suggesting a more logical method of BET SELECTION

As I said before, betting on the 2nd previous number will have you winning when a streak come up; that alone will increase your odds over the casino - in the short run!

Here is a spreadsheet up to illustrate that and how it works. Real spins results are available, no need for number generators.

Column A - Numbers 1 to 1,000,000
Column B - Actual spin results, 1 million of them
Column E and F = Table to define Red or Black according to roulette number
Column H - Test Runs, 100 spins only
Column I - Choose first number of the test run, from Col. A
Column J - The spin results from that starting number
Column K - The result Color
Column L - The Color to bet on after 2 spins
Column M - The result - Win or Lose
Column N - Start Bank of 100 units, and balance after betting

I highlighted the 2 successive streaks of RED which occurred quite soon into this set of numbers, I did not search for this!

Now, as mentioned before, and I have seen it, human instinct is to start betting on the opposite because the logic is BLACK must come out!

But, as you can see, the bets start winning there with this method. Also, I have Excel highlight in green the highest bank number in the run of 100

So, logically, a gambler should stop when he up 50% of his bank from spin 19 to 21, agree? This is the only math he needs to know

Over to you

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #83
  • Apr 18, 2018 1:14pm Apr 18, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey patterncode...... grand daughter..... no she doesn't... she's 8...... her 500$ account is up almost 400$ now and the 1000$ account is up over 500..... i believe her win/loss ratio is just under 95 on both accounts..... both accounts will double before the month is out..... her win/loss ratio should stay above 80.... they have 4 more newer accounts..... all accounts combined, there should be nearly 600 trades per month averaging 3$ per trade..... or 1800 a month..... their up over 2000 combined now..... the private ea i was referring...
Cool, to start that young.

Thanks for reply.
  • #84
  • Apr 18, 2018 1:35pm Apr 18, 2018 1:35pm
Quoting swTrue
Trading is relative, probably one of the great lessons you can learn. Trend is relative to how you define/quantify it whether it be structure, MAs, TLs, HH/HL etc. Keep in mind, your "trend" may just be the pullback of a greater "trend" and that greater "trend" may just be a pullback in the greater greater "trend". See what I mean. So buyiny/selling tops and bottoms is often just buying/selling deep pullbacks that you're not aware of.
Nicely stated mate....
People like you are the reason we have middle fingers
  • #85
  • Apr 20, 2018 4:34am Apr 20, 2018 4:34am
Quoting patterncode
{quote} Cool, to start that young. Thanks for reply.
//-----

cooler still is that they do what many say can't be done......h
//------
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #86
  • Apr 20, 2018 4:43am Apr 20, 2018 4:43am
Any trend experiences some retracement along the way. Trading the retracement is going against the trend but it can be done, e.g. by scalping. You get in and you don't linger in the trade. Although this is not my cup of tea.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87
  • Apr 20, 2018 4:56am Apr 20, 2018 4:56am
Quoting KeenPips
Any trend experiences some retracement along the way. Trading the retracement is going against the trend but it can be done, e.g. by scalping. You get in and you don't linger in the trade. Although this is not my cup of tea. Trade safe and prosper. KP
//----

hey keen..... and it is those retracements that many trend traders long for..... they can produce the largest pip gains...... or losses.....

in the case of shorting which is your preference, when the downtrend reverses, if someone was to have trailing sell stops riding the psar, bband lines or any such indicator, when the reversal ended and downtrend resumed your trailing sellstops would get you back in at the seemingly perfect time.......

little waves on big waves......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #88
  • Apr 20, 2018 7:40am Apr 20, 2018 7:40am
Hi hay! I'm not talking about entering a trade in the trend direction after retracement but about trading the retracement; which is a focus of the thread.

KP

Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey keen..... and it is those retracements that many trend traders long for..... they can produce the largest pip gains...... or losses..... in the case of shorting which is your preference, when the downtrend reverses, if someone was to have trailing sell stops riding the psar, bband lines or any such indicator, when the reversal ended and downtrend resumed your trailing sellstops would get you back in at the seemingly perfect time....... little waves on big waves......h
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #89
  • Last Post: May 1, 2018 3:00pm May 1, 2018 3:00pm
Quoting Torontoman
Does this mean that the probability is that I will lose money going against the trend? If that is true is my expected value is positive if I go with the trend whatever trade I make? Do you get my point? If my expected value is negative if I go against the trend, it is positive if I go with it! OR It does not matter if you go with the trend. There are no trends. All trades are 50/50 chance of profit!
Trading with reversal pattern is always challenging, so reversal trading setups are not suitable for the new traders since the probability is too low. On the other hand, more than 70% times, market follow it’s previous trend, that’s way; trading according to the market trend is much reliable than reversal trading.
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