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Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

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Attachments: Never Go Against the Trend?
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Never Go Against the Trend?

The question in itself does not exist.if everybody is seeing "The trend"through there individual perspective which is conflicting then surely the trend does not exist as a collective.

I'm not disputing the fact that price travels between two points but labelling it with this silly confusing title does nothing but add confusion and destructive tendency to trade it .
People need to look at this from a different perspective

How many traders here actually sit waiting days .weeks months for price to actually TREND to it's New fair value .
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //------ hey alastor....... your probably correct again, but if you have the time, why do think that is...... //----- on a side note, seeing how we're all just friends here, and all trying to learn from each other...... just suppose someone did claim to trade 'primarily' with the trend , is there any metric on forex factorys explorer that might hint it's a viable method...... i'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, just wondering that's all.......h
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why do think that is
1. Widespread false/misleading information/myths.
2. False beliefs/mentality about trading/market.
3. Unhealthy focus on money making.
4. Lack of capital.


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just suppose someone did claim to trade 'primarily' with the trend , is there any metric on forex factorys explorer that might hint it's a viable method
Any strategy that is popular/widely available through media/press/internet/books and widely used by the average retail traders, chances are they suck (money out of people's trading accounts).

A profitable trader is proven to be one by his positive P&L, not by claims. Parroting deliberate marketed misinformation that come from 'professional traders' doesn't prove anything except blind ignorance.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} A profitable trader is proven to be one by his positive P&L, not by claims.
//-----

hey alastor..... thanks for the reply...... ........

//-----

fwiw, for those that might be interested......... just to put undeserved pressure on her, i'll post peytons 500$ account on prince's thread once she has traded it 30 days.....

predictions in advance using forex factorys explorers metrics,

1. her win to loss ratio will be greater than 80%......

2. her profit to loss ratio will be greater than 2 to 1......

3. her average profit will be close to 1% per day non-compounded.....

4. her largest profit should be around 20$.....

5. her largest loss should be less than 10$......

6. her maximum winning trades in a row should be greater than 10.....

7. her maximum losing trades in a row should be less than 3........

8. her maximum consecutive profit should be 100$......

9. her maximum consecutive loss should be less than 10$.....

10. her average profit will be twice her average loss......

//------

of those 10, i feel comfortable betting a diet coke at least 7 will be....... that little rug rat better not let me down............h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey alastor..... thanks for the reply...... ........ //----- fwiw, for those that might be interested......... just to put undeserved pressure on her, i'll post peytons 500$ account on prince's thread once she has traded it 30 days..... predictions in advance using forex factorys explorers metrics, 1. her win to loss ratio will be greater than 80%...... 2. her profit to loss ratio will be greater than 2 to 1...... 3. her average profit will be close to 1% per day...
Then what was the trading strategy? I am really interested to know the name.
look, this statement with the trends is a bit tricky. because, the price, in a longer period time frame could be in a down trend, but in a smaller period of time could be in an up trend. how do you trade that?
Quoting Torontoman
Does this mean that the probability is that I will lose money going against the trend? If that is true is my expected value is positive if I go with the trend whatever trade I make? Do you get my point? If my expected value is negative if I go against the trend, it is positive if I go with it! OR It does not matter if you go with the trend. There are no trends. All trades are 50/50 chance of profit!
AO indicator i think it is a good tool to tightly narrow the trend!!

you can change 50/50 to 70/30
Forex Philosopher
Quoting hayseed
{quote} ------ of those 10, i feel comfortable betting a diet coke at least 7 will be....... that little rug rat better not let me down............h
//-----

we're workin 13 on and 1 off, 14 hours a day..... so my time is limited...... i really did not check how many of the 10 she did ...... here is her live account which started with 500$.....

no one in this entire world took me up on the coke bet...... so i'll put more pressure on her ....... more on that later......h
//-----
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
Quoting Master-Mind
{quote} AO indicator i think it is a good tool to tightly narrow the trend!! you can change 50/50 to 70/30

hahaha , a "programmer" as clown Master-Mind that gives his judgment about a serious indicator like Awesome Oscillator ...
Please, look at some Master-Mind's chaotic & useless indicators :

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FF members , please don't pay any attention to this mentally deficient person.
[quote=hayseed;10876337]{quote} Everyone is a Hayseed but not not everyone is the Hayseed
Quoting Torontoman
Does this mean that the probability is that I will lose money going against the trend? If that is true is my expected value is positive if I go with the trend whatever trade I make? Do you get my point? If my expected value is negative if I go against the trend, it is positive if I go with it! OR It does not matter if you go with the trend. There are no trends. All trades are 50/50 chance of profit!
I feel that it all depends on how you define the current trend at the time you are trading. It's a lot different to just looking at the highs or lows over time.

One word from an experienced trader I know that really helped me was CONTEXT

Define the current context of the market
Quoting LuizGuilher
{quote} Then what was the trading strategy? I am really interested to know the name.
//----

hey luiz..... sorry, only now noticed your post..... the strategy has no formal name..... the girls are simply trend trading.... albeit a somewhat complex version..... and that is where i come in.....

you'll notice throughout forex factory people holler 'proof proof' or 'explorer explorer' or 'in advance in advance'.....

my post was just giving proof in advance of forex factory explorers numbers i expected....... even before the trades were ever made.....

as an another example, peyton should roll past 50% on that 500$ account before 2 months is up with a 95% win rate..... her newest 1000$ account should be close behind but with better overall numbers..... makayla's 1000$ account, which is less than 2 weeks old, should conservatively clear 25% before this month is out with 0 losses.....

that's not derived from a crystal ball.... it's derived though intensive code doing data type mining.....

i will open increasingly larger accounts for them every 2 weeks until they cry mommy..... multiple accounts, with varying balances, opened over time, is a tough row to hoe......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
Quoting redoktober
{quote} hahaha , a "programmer" as clown Master-Mind that gives his judgment about a serious indicator like Awesome Oscillator ... Please, look at some Master-Mind's chaotic & useless indicators : {image} {image} FF members , please don't pay any attention to this mentally deficient person.
if i was looking for a trade with this i would have missed it
ONE MUST LEARN, DO IT AND IT WILL BE KIND TO YOU
Quoting haydo147
{quote} I feel that it all depends on how you define the current trend at the time you are trading. It's a lot different to just looking at the highs or lows over time. One word from an experienced trader I know that really helped me was CONTEXT Define the current context of the market
Exactly.......trading the NOW is paramount and not otherwise. That's why they always mentioned in forex that past performances are no guarantee for future success. 20/20 trades always perfect for now but not for the future.

Hehe
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Some years back, Vegas installed digital displays on the roulette tables. These displays would show the last numbers for x amount of spins. If the space the ball landed on was red, the number displayed was red. If the space the ball landed on was black, the number was black on the display. These new displays resulted in an immediate and large increase in the revenue roulette brought in for the casinos. Why? Because the "gambler or novice" would see 3 red numbers in a row on the display, and immediate place a bet on black. After all, leaving...
There is a betting method that will ensure that you are always on the correct side of those long streak

Simply bet on the 2nd previous outcome

Examples:

Red, Red = bet on Red

Red, Black = bet on Red

Black, Black = bet on Black

Black, Red = bet on Black

So when it comes Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red = you win every time

And so on, the only time you will lose consistently is a case where each color is repeated, then it swaps to the other for 2 times

Ergo, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black, Black

But that is unusual situation; this works for the other 50/50 (almost) bets on High / Low and Odd / Even

Have fun
Maximize wins, minimize loss, stay in the game as long as you can
Quoting Erebus
{quote} There is a betting method that will ensure that you are always on the correct side of those long streak Simply bet on the 2nd previous outcome Examples: Red, Red = bet on Red Red, Black = bet on Red Black, Black = bet on Black Black, Red = bet on Black So when it comes Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red Red = you win every time And so on, the only time you will lose consistently is a case where each color is repeated, then it swaps to the other for 2 times Ergo, Red, Red, Black, Black, Red, Red, Black,...
Been to casinos half of my life and i can tell you red, red, black, black comes up a lot more often than you think. This is even more true with baccarat. Forget about using any systems in casinos. Bet big when you are winning and bet small when you are losing. Cash out when you feel that you are not having a good run already and most importantly, have fun!
Quoting CrocodileRex
{quote} Been to casinos half of my life and i can tell you red, red, black, black comes up a lot more often than you think. This is even more true with baccarat. Forget about using any systems in casinos. Bet big when you are winning and bet small when you are losing. Cash out when you feel that you are not having a good run already and most importantly, have fun!
Been to casinos half of my life - Good for you

i can tell you red, red, black, black comes up a lot more often than you think - Yes, but nobody ever notices like the time I saw 23 RED come out

This is even more true with baccarat - don't know the game, never mentioned it

Bet big when you are winning and bet small when you are losing. - Never mentioned any betting or size thereof, totally different topic

***Note: with gambling there are 2 requirements: 1st, a selection method for the bet, and 2nd, how much to bet***

People often get confused and mixed up between the 2.

And also, please note, I never stated this would always be a winning method, although it really does improve the win, only that when those long streaks come, you will be betting on the winner every time; people will look at you like you are crazy betting on the same color every time!

Maximize wins, minimize loss, stay in the game as long as you can
Going against the trend is for idiots only. Been there already. Realized, same trades, placed counter trend, can be placed with the trend a little later when the direction changes. So placing trades prior the new trend is simply stupid. For the hobby traders...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
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fwiw, for those that might be interested......... just to put undeserved pressure on her, i'll post peytons 500$ account on prince's threadonce she has traded it 30 days.....



Who is Peyton? Do they post here?


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as an another example, peyton should roll past 50% on that 500$ account before 2 months is up with a 95% win rate..... her newest 1000$ account should be close behind but with better overall numbers..... makayla's 1000$ account, which is less than 2 weeks old, should conservatively clear 25% before this month is out with 0 losses.....

that's not derived from a crystal ball.... it's derived though intensive code doing data type mining.....

what EA/indicator is that?
Quoting patterncode
{quote} Who is Peyton? Do they post here? {quote} what EA/indicator is that?
//----

hey patterncode...... grand daughter..... no she doesn't... she's 8...... her 500$ account is up almost 400$ now and the 1000$ account is up over 500..... i believe her win/loss ratio is just under 95 on both accounts..... both accounts will double before the month is out..... her win/loss ratio should stay above 80....

they have 4 more newer accounts..... all accounts combined, there should be nearly 600 trades per month averaging 3$ per trade..... or 1800 a month..... their up over 2000 combined now.....

the private ea i was referring to predicts those numbers and a lot more, not me..... it is not a trade placing ea..... it simply data mines all time frames and selects the trades with the highest chance of success.... the numbers i mentioned in post 63 will be...... and on every account......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
Quoting Erebus
although it really does improve the win
Respectfully disagree with both you and HiddenGap; unless some physical bias (unbalanced wheel, the way croupier releases the ball, etc) exists, all spins are independent, random events, and past streaks are predictively meaningless; the house edge always remains 2/38 (5.26%) for wheels with both 0 and 00, or 1/37 (2.70%) for wheels with only 0, no matter what strategy you use. Which is why the casino will always win eventually (more here). Any belief that the player can gain any kind of mathematical advantage is grounded in gambler's fallacy.

To prove this, it's easy enough to write a computer simulation (assuming you have a decent RNG) that tests any number of different strategies over millions of 'spins'. The end result always converges toward the house edge, no matter what strategy (or even betting system/progression) you use.

I'm talking about roulette only, i.e. I'm not saying that this necessarily applies to markets, as their underlying mechanism is different.
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