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Never Go Against the Trend?

  • #41
  • Feb 28, 2018 11:13am Feb 28, 2018 11:13am
Trend is the biggest illusion you need to over come .

And is responsible for most traders failings
  • #42
  • Feb 28, 2018 11:19am Feb 28, 2018 11:19am
Quoting tomorton
{quote} But what I like most of all about trends is the opportunity to pyramid and increase your r:r parabolically. This is not a feature of a counter-trend and/or short-term move and certainly doesn't work in a range.
//-----

hey tom...... exactly...... and that is the major key to 100's and 100's of winning trades in a row...... proper placement of proper lot sized trades can multiply those numbers easily times 10......

the four hour trend can easily erase or add 1% to someones account on most pairs.... if my trades are riding the daily and weekly trend, i look forward well in advance for those 240 trend changes..... by using the abc correction wave theory, i'll double or triple the 4 hour atr and use that as a guidepost for the trend retracement ......

those head end trades might be safe but the tail end trades, if any, will invariably go underwater during the abc retrace.....

//-----

for anyone struggling with forex, what helps me the most is going with the flow..... ride big the wave knowing you will have to adjust your feet for those smaller counter waves.....

for anyone dead serious on forex, learn to code before even attempting to trade...... that ability opens doors that few can imagine.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #43
  • Feb 28, 2018 11:37am Feb 28, 2018 11:37am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey tom...... exactly...... and that is the major key to 100's and 100's of winning trades in a row...... proper placement of proper lot sized trades can multiply those numbers easily times 10...... the four hour trend can easily erase or add 1% to someones account on most pairs.... if my trades are riding the daily and weekly trend, i look forward well in advance for those 240 trend changes..... by using the abc correction wave theory, i'll double or triple the 4 hour atr and use that as a guidepost for the trend retracement .........
The coding aspect is real talk...
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #44
  • Feb 28, 2018 11:56am Feb 28, 2018 11:56am
Quoting diceman555
Trend is the biggest illusion you need to over come . And is responsible for most traders failings

Strange you say that - following trends never comes up amongst the top reasons why retail traders fail. most traders don't even accept trend-following as a viable form of trading.
  • #45
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:15pm Feb 28, 2018 1:15pm
Quoting tomorton
{quote} Strange you say that - following trends never comes up amongst the top reasons why retail traders fail. most traders don't even accept trend-following as a viable form of trading.
Following the trend like following an illusion...
  • #46
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:26pm Feb 28, 2018 1:26pm
Good market entry is about market timing, not about following some beliefs that fail half of the time.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #47
  • Edited 4:15pm Feb 28, 2018 1:49pm | Edited 4:15pm
Wtf? More baffling, face palm, stupidity...

Identify if there's a daily trend in existence, is it bullish or bearish? Take trade in the direction of daily trend. You will be 'right' in terms of probability and stats, more times than you're 'wrong'.

Quoting diceman555
Trend is the biggest illusion you need to over come . And is responsible for most traders failings
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #48
  • Feb 28, 2018 2:26pm Feb 28, 2018 2:26pm
Quoting AlastorFate
Good market entry is about market timing, not about following some beliefs that fail half of the time.
//-----

hey alastor...... your quite possibly correct...... good market entry is all about timing..... personally , a belief that failed half the time would not appeal to me either......

but one that failed on less than 14% of the 3400 total trades, with the total profit being double the total loss, over 11 years would...... that's not an illusion..... that's a pattern.......

oanda's accounts do not work right with forex factorys explorers..... this appears to be the way oanda handles interest instead of swap...... otherwise i would make public a few accounts running in the 90% area......

in any event, to each his own...... what works for me might be just an illusion to someone else......done here.... yall take care......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #49
  • Feb 28, 2018 2:51pm Feb 28, 2018 2:51pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Wtf? More baffling, face palm, stupidly. Identify if there's a daily trend in existence, is it bullish or bearish? Take trade in the direction of daily trend. You will be 'right' in terms of probability and stats, more times than you're 'wrong'. {quote}
Not many here know how to do that .

So I repeat it's confusing to 99 % OF all retail.the illusion of time frames and price construction .price trends from a to b and generally missed by all retail.there entries are feeding profit.

The middle class pay for everything. The money sets the trend .the bottom feeders react and feed of the the middle class so called trend followers.

I don't believe you are as stupid as you sometimes claim to be

Your daily trend is validated at which point during the day .when it begins or when it has ended.its all horse shit unless your trading from the front
  • #50
  • Feb 28, 2018 3:04pm Feb 28, 2018 3:04pm
Clueless drivel, desperately masquerading as knowledge.

Quoting diceman555
{quote} Not many here know how to do that . So I repeat it's confusing to 99 % OF all retail.the illusion of time frames and price construction .price trends from a to b and generally missed by all retail.there entries are feeding profit. The middle class pay for everything. The money sets the trend .the bottom feeders react and feed of the the middle class so called trend followers. I don't believe you are as stupid as you sometimes claim to be Your daily trend is validated at which point during the day .when it begins or when it has ended.its...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #51
  • Feb 28, 2018 3:41pm Feb 28, 2018 3:41pm
Quoting faryne
{quote} Following the trend like following an illusion...

Trends aren't an illusion, they are the most persistent and powerful patterns in charting. They are in fact the basis if all successful trades as when a trader takes a position off a reversal or any kind of chart pattern, what makes the money is the trend that price then forms. Even if you're not a trend follower, you must be hoping that once you're in a position price forms a trend and brings you the extraordinary profits we all hope for. What else can do this?
  • #52
  • Feb 28, 2018 3:44pm Feb 28, 2018 3:44pm
Quoting AlastorFate
Good market entry is about market timing, not about following some beliefs that fail half of the time.

Trends don't fail half the time or else there would never be a trend. A trend does not have to be some price movement in a single direction which lasts forever. It is a progression of price action in a given direction which, at any given point along its path, will be found to continue more frequently than it reverses. Obviously all trends end at some point in time: if for you they fail as soon as you enter, that says more about your trend identification and your entry points than it does about trends.
  • #53
  • Feb 28, 2018 5:25pm Feb 28, 2018 5:25pm
Quoting tomorton
Trends don't fail half the time or else there would never be a trend. A trend does not have to be some price movement in a single direction which lasts forever. It is a progression of price action in a given direction which, at any given point along its path, will be found to continue more frequently than it reverses. Obviously all trends end at some point in time: if for you they fail as soon as you enter, that says more about your trend identification and your entry points than it does about trends.
Trending markets can be easily identified.

The problem with trend following strategies is by the time you have identified a strong trending market, is it already too late to jump into it? It might be too late because you didn't get in during the early phase of the trend.

Why most traders couldn't get in at the early phase of the current trend? Because at that given time (the early phase), the market was trending in the other direction!
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #54
  • Feb 28, 2018 5:37pm Feb 28, 2018 5:37pm
Interesting post!!

Quoting hayseed
{quote} //----- hey tom...... exactly...... and that is the major key to 100's and 100's of winning trades in a row...... proper placement of proper lot sized trades can multiply those numbers easily times 10...... the four hour trend can easily erase or add 1% to someones account on most pairs.... if my trades are riding the daily and weekly trend, i look forward well in advance for those 240 trend changes..... by using the abc correction wave theory, i'll double or triple the 4 hour atr and use that as a guidepost for the trend retracement .........
  • #55
  • Feb 28, 2018 5:38pm Feb 28, 2018 5:38pm
The story of of my life!

Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} Trending markets can be easily identified. The problem with trend following strategies is by the time you have identified a strong trending market, is it already too late to jump into it? It might be too late because you didn't get in during the early phase of the trend. Why most traders couldn't get in at the early phase of the current trend? Because at that given time (the early phase), the market was trending in the other direction!
  • #56
  • Mar 1, 2018 1:41am Mar 1, 2018 1:41am
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} Trending markets can be easily identified. The problem with trend following strategies is by the time you have identified a strong trending market, is it already too late to jump into it? It might be too late because you didn't get in during the early phase of the trend. Why most traders couldn't get in at the early phase of the current trend? Because at that given time (the early phase), the market was trending in the other direction!

Trend identification is step 1 in TA. Its step 1 because everything else is more complicated. If you are unable to do this, you will be unable to make money trading.

Of course there are alternative ways and some will make dramatic returns per trade. But the best returns come when your entry signal is followed by a strong trend in your selected direction. Meanwhile, trend following has lowest risk and greatest opportunity to pyramid, and that's what separates professionals from amateurs.
  • #57
  • Edited 8:14am Mar 1, 2018 7:50am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting tomorton
{quote} Trend identification is step 1 in TA. Its step 1 because everything else is more complicated. If you are unable to do this, you will be unable to make money trading. Of course there are alternative ways and some will make dramatic returns per trade. But the best returns come when your entry signal is followed by a strong trend in your selected direction. Meanwhile, trend following has lowest risk and greatest opportunity to pyramid, and that's what separates professionals from amateurs.
Definition from Investopedia
'Technical analysis is a trading tool employed to evaluate securities and attempt to forecast their future movement by analyzing statistics gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.'

Quote
Trend identification is step 1 in TA

Where did you get the concept that trend identification is the absolute first step in trading analysis?

Quote
Its step 1 because everything else is more complicated.

What do you mean by everything else is complicated?

Quote
If you are unable to do this, you will be unable to make money trading.

I would say that practically all traders who know a bit or two about trend related theories know how to identify a trend.

But the part where you mention traders who can identify trends are able to make money from the market. That is complete nonsense. 9 out of 10 traders statistically lose consistently. These consistent losing traders are mostly technical based traders who know how to identify trends.

Quote
But the best returns come when your entry signal is followed by a strong trend in your selected direction.

Bro, your entry is crap by the time you decide enter a trade in an ongoing strong trend. The risk of losing is extremely high. You might be buying in an area where traders who got into the early phase of the trend decide to dump their positions, which would make the price go against your positions.

Quote
Trend following has lowest risk and greatest opportunity to pyramid

There is no such thing as lowest risk in Forex trading. The worst scenario can happen many times in a row to any trader, including trend followers.

Quote
and that's what separates professionals from amateurs.

'A trader who trades with the trend is qualified as a trader trading at a professional level?' What???

No, wait, the trader's P&L is still in a drawdown mess.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #58
  • Mar 1, 2018 8:12am Mar 1, 2018 8:12am
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} Definition from Investopedia 'Technical analysis is a trading tool employed to evaluate securities and attempt to forecast their future movement by analyzing statistics gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.' {quote} Where did you get the concept that trend identification is the absolute first step in trading analysis? {quote} What do you mean by everything else is complicated? {quote} I would say that practically all traders who know a bit or two...

All my own individual opinions of course. You're free to disregard what I say.
  • #59
  • Mar 1, 2018 8:24am Mar 1, 2018 8:24am
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} 9 out of 10 traders statistically lose consistently.
//------

hey alastor....... your probably correct again, but if you have the time, why do think that is......

//-----

on a side note, seeing how we're all just friends here, and all trying to learn from each other...... just suppose someone did claim to trade 'primarily' with the trend , is there any metric on forex factorys explorer that might hint it's a viable method...... i'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, just wondering that's all.......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #60
  • Mar 1, 2018 8:42am Mar 1, 2018 8:42am
Quoting LuizGuilher
{quote} Is this YouTube channel is about any specific trading system? Or anything else?
Yes, ICT still has stuff for free at that link. He is a counter-trend trader that buys at Support, sells Resistance. This can make good money if you can recognize trend vs range markets but if you stay too long against a trend, can wipe you out.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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