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Bank Currency Strength

  • #141
  • Mar 29, 2018 9:06pm Mar 29, 2018 9:06pm
Hi Angela,
I'm thankful to JayRai for opening this thread and to you for posting your trades.
I have to admit that I'm a little confused .... You are saying that you like to use Trading Floor Volumes with Limit orders. Problem is that it could take a few candles before your limit order gets fullfiled. How you know what the volume is going to be 3, 4 or more candles ahead? You can see this problem in your trades, for ex: in USD/JPY trade you are going long, but at the time it took you on market the volume indicator shows short positions.
USD/CAD you are going short, but the volume indicator shows buy volume ...
I would be grateful if you could explain this. Maybe I'm missing something?
Thank you so much for your help.
  • #142
  • Mar 29, 2018 11:43pm Mar 29, 2018 11:43pm
Quoting Angela1985
{quote} It depends on how your style of trading is. But taking students... i got asked a few times but haven't really thought about it. Maybe opening my own topic would be more interesting? But normally i use volumes and s&r only. Paid data is what i use though. No mixed retail data or whatsoever. So to trade a bit like me it requires having quality data from quandl, bloomberg, bankersfx, alphavantage etc etc for instance.
Hi Angela. Wasn't aware you are subscribed to so many data providers!
I thought you were exclusively using bankersfx, while waiting for your quandary subscription to run out.

Well if you change your mind about taking on students please remember me
Starting your own thread might be a good idea so as not to overtake JayRai's thread. Sorry JayRai!

But I am interested in reducing my screen time on the 15min charts and sounds like your way of trading is achieving this consistently. Not sure if your method can be transposed onto higher timeframes also?
JayRai's strategy might be better suited for higher time frames as it is more "Fundamentals" based, although I am also curious if it can be adapted on lower ones.

Anyway, happy Friday!

factormyfx
  • #143
  • Edited 5:16am Mar 30, 2018 5:06am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting cojub
Hi Angela, I'm thankful to JayRai for opening this thread and to you for posting your trades. I have to admit that I'm a little confused .... You are saying that you like to use Trading Floor Volumes with Limit orders. Problem is that it could take a few candles before your limit order gets fullfiled. How you know what the volume is going to be 3, 4 or more candles ahead? You can see this problem in your trades, for ex: in USD/JPY trade you are going long, but at the time it took you on market the volume indicator shows short positions. USD/CAD...
Hello cojub! It looks like i am ahead of things but the answer is more correlated. If you look closely on the charts i start my day during london session. in the first couple of candles (m15) you can see this: eu, gu, au is getting strong selling pressure and you can see this as well: ucad and uchf getting strong. This means that usd getting strong over the other currencies. So when 5 agree out of 6 that is a strong confirmation to me. that is why i am going long on uj as well. Regarding ucad i did not go short but long as well. The ea places arrows like this: blue arrow means buy position and red arrow means sell position on opening price. When position get closed it always show a red arrow on the closing price no matter win or lose. You can see it also on the tiny small red and green lines above and beneath my opening positions. Green is target price and red is stop loss price. I cant change those colors because i dont have the option in the ea. Sorry. Maybe this helps a bit in understanding how i use volumes and correlation
  • #144
  • Mar 30, 2018 5:13am Mar 30, 2018 5:13am
Quoting factormyfx
{quote} Hi Angela. Wasn't aware you are subscribed to so many data providers! I thought you were exclusively using bankersfx, while waiting for your quandary subscription to run out. Well if you change your mind about taking on students please remember me Starting your own thread might be a good idea so as not to overtake JayRai's thread. Sorry JayRai! But I am interested in reducing my screen time on the 15min charts and sounds like your way of trading is achieving this consistently. Not sure if your method can be transposed onto higher...
Hello factormyfx! Yes i tried many data sources but currently i am only using bankersfx. I have still a subscription at quandl but that one expires in a few because i paid for a year ahead back then. But what i meant was that to trade like i do you need quality data filtered to exclude retail trader data and other no trade floor data. I will start a new thread. Better i think. Maybe asking ff first where the thread must be placed since i use a paid service and a paid ea on my chart
  • #145
  • Mar 30, 2018 6:59am Mar 30, 2018 6:59am
Quoting Angela1985
{quote} Hello factormyfx! Yes i tried many data sources but currently i am only using bankersfx. I have still a subscription at quandl but that one expires in a few because i paid for a year ahead back then. But what i meant was that to trade like i do you need quality data filtered to exclude retail trader data and other no trade floor data. I will start a new thread. Better i think. Maybe asking ff first where the thread must be placed since i use a paid service and a paid ea on my chart
Well done Angela.. when do you plan to start a new thread?

Cheers
  • #146
  • Mar 30, 2018 10:03am Mar 30, 2018 10:03am
Quoting Angela1985
{quote} Hello factormyfx! Yes i tried many data sources but currently i am only using bankersfx. I have still a subscription at quandl but that one expires in a few because i paid for a year ahead back then. But what i meant was that to trade like i do you need quality data filtered to exclude retail trader data and other no trade floor data. I will start a new thread. Better i think. Maybe asking ff first where the thread must be placed since i use a paid service and a paid ea on my chart
Hi Angela. Thanks for confirming your data sources.
Look forward to your new thread!
  • #147
  • Apr 5, 2018 1:08pm Apr 5, 2018 1:08pm
H JaiRai/Angela1985,

Really disappointed to see that you guys have stopped contributing to this thread anymore. Hope, you will come back soon with more info.

Thanks for pointing out the right and easy techniques to trade retail forex.

Roy
  • #148
  • Apr 6, 2018 5:52pm Apr 6, 2018 5:52pm
Hi all! I was of for a couple of day (traveling) and i sent a message to the forexfactory staff regarding starting a new thread. I do not really know where to start it because i use paid services as jayray does. But it was sent a couple of days and didn't hear anything about it yet. Maybe just starting the thread then and find out what they will say or do?
  • #149
  • Apr 7, 2018 5:31am Apr 7, 2018 5:31am
Quoting Angela1985
Hi all! I was of for a couple of day (traveling) and i sent a message to the forexfactory staff regarding starting a new thread. I do not really know where to start it because i use paid services as jayray does. But it was sent a couple of days and didn't hear anything about it yet. Maybe just starting the thread then and find out what they will say or do?
Hi Agela,

Even if you aren't associated in anyway with a paid service, your thread will be moved to commercial and you will become a commercial member.
That happened to me so maybe you'd reconsider opening a thread knowing you will get a commercial label behind your name.

To other members reading my thread and posts i would like to say that i had an unexpected very busy schedule. Hopefully in the end of next week things getting a bit relax and would be able to share my pov.

Most of you ask me in private messages what service i use and why;
still using the 2 indicators from Bankersfx.
- Bank Positions to determine trend by strength in the indicator window
- Core Volumes to determine entries and exits

Regarding volumes... well, that can be used on so many different ways with success. But i wait for bargains in a trend. Mostly known as pull backs.
When is something cheap to buy? In the below example you can see clearly that banks are buying EUR against CHF. That is my trend right there.
Then i use volumes to see when it pulls back from the trend. Whenever there where large selling volumes (larger than the averaged line), i wait until it closes below. There is my entry. When do i close? Depends on several things like the actual bank targets, power in volumes or currency strength.
For now i give you examples the easy way: whenever buying volumes rises above the averaged line and starts to drop (getting less than previous candle).
See example below. This 'technique' is also used to scout possible peaks&dips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHFH4.png Size: 16 KB


Whenever i have more time to share, i try to post more. But please understand that i may have a different mindset than some of you. And yes, maybe a bit more to spend. BUT, i started small as well. However, in the end, i see trading as a business and i treat it as one. I invest in quality data wether it is coming from Bloomberg, EXF, Quandl, AlphaVantage, Bankersfx etc etc, this is where everything relies on. Sorry guys but i had to say this because some of you ask me for alternative currency strength meters and volume indicators. I can't / will not / am not able to work with such tools. I find them too laggy or too technical (non-fundamental), i trade based on the point of view / positions from banks (what they expect and not what was) and volumes from decision makers from the trading floors. Yes, sometimes i use RSI but i prefer filtered volumes.

If you are not in the position to invest in certain data or tools, my way of trading isn't suited for you. Once again, this isn't a holy grail. Please read my first post again to understand it all what i am trying to say and share. Please do not feel offended, just wanted to answer some questions i got in private. I hope you all appreciate it
  • #150
  • Edited 11:21pm Apr 7, 2018 3:14pm | Edited 11:21pm
@JayRai: nice thread, many thanks for sharing.

Quote
Wouw. What a hate. Please do not mistake my kindness for weakness. Sorry to see that. I think you must have been hurt big time. Did you got scammed?
Sadly there are a lot of retail traders who've been scammed, and their comments reflect their bitter experience. All trading forums seem to have their share of trolls, naysayers, blowhards and freeloaders, and Forex Factory (I've been a member here since 2006) is no exception.
Quote
Sorry guys but i had to say this because some of you ask me for alternative currency strength meters and volume indicators. I can't / will not / am not able to work with such tools. I find them too laggy or too technical (non-fundamental), i trade based on the point of view / positions from banks (what they expect and not what was) and volumes from decision makers from the trading floors. Yes, sometimes i use RSI but i prefer filtered volumes.
You're absolutely right in saying that TA based CSMs are lagging. Like all other indicators they are derived from price, and therefore have about as much predictive value. The strength and weakness that they highlight persists only if there are underlying reasons, or a consensus of heavyweight sentiment, causing it to do so.

Letting the big banks perform your analysis legwork, and then piggybacking off their expertise, is a smart move imho.
________________________

@anybody: Assuming that I understand correctly, JayRai is not selling anything here, he is merely explaining how he uses data that he has purchased for his own use. If you want to likewise buy information, that's your choice; of course you should always perform your own due diligence and apply financial commonsense when spending your money. I have not used the same products/services as JayRai, and make no recommendations.

To anybody who doubts that large banks provide both trade and analysis based data, I've attached some samples showing exactly what is available, if you know how to source it. Sorry but I can't share more up-to-date versions, or disclose my sources. Of course I can't guarantee that the positions these banks claim they are taking is accurate, and I have no idea what their trade sizes are.

Assuming that the data provided by Jayrai's paid source is bona fide, the figures show the number of buy and sell positions (both open and pending) of 18 major banks, which can then be used as a proxy for strength/weakness, as seen by these banks' highly paid analysts. You could use this data to simply place the same entries/SL/TP as these banks, or otherwise trade based on their directional consensus, using your own preferred tools to time your entries and exits. Jayrai's source also provides trading floor (not retail) volumes, which he uses to time his entries (as he explains in his previous post).
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Files 2016-09-03 part 1.zip   9.6 MB | 2,292 downloads
File Type: zip Files 2016-09-03 part 2.zip   9.7 MB | 1,261 downloads
File Type: zip Files 2016-08-16.zip   8.4 MB | 996 downloads
  • #151
  • Apr 8, 2018 7:09am Apr 8, 2018 7:09am
Quoting hanover
@JayRai: nice thread, many thanks for sharing.
Thanks Hanover, really appreciate your contribution.

I agree, a lot of retail traders have had bad experiences regarding paid services / products. I was once of them in my first few years before my professional trading career. Sadly there are scammers out there indeed. Mostly trying to attract potential victims with promising sales slogans like: "become a millionaire in a month" or "earn $2.000 a day". Whenever i read that kind of stuff... never mind. I do not believe in holy grails, i believe in smart, hard and consistent work. Even the highly paid analysts need to work hard, be smart and deliver consistent results. Otherwise they wouldn't be where they are now.

Ok, i had some questions in private how bankers predict markets. The answer to that is very hard to give. Most of them operate in teams like i did. There are fundamental analysts and/or technical analysts and/or risk managers that influence potential setups. Different strategies and techniques are used. But in the end, fundamental reasons are, in most cases, more appreciated by decision makers. To give an very easy example how a 'prediction' is created:

Bankers know that central banks have the ability and tools to influence a currency.
Central banks want to keep a currency in balance and use inflation figures to know what is and what to do.
(You can find current inflation figures, central banks target inflation figures freely yourself btw.)
If a currency is too overrated, central banks have the ability to use tools to depreciate a currency like quantitative easing.
Bankers already know that central banks will take action because of the large inflation difference between what is and what it should be.
So there is a solid fundamental based 'prediction' that a currency will getting weaker for instance.
Against which other currency could lead to best return on investment? The opposite situation.

The above example is based on position trading (longer term). But that one is an easy way to understand how most bankers operate / think.

Unfortunately i can not / may not share documents how a team operate but the documents Hanover shared is a good example how complex things can get.
In those documents your see trade recommendations and trade sims from analysts for board meetings. That doesn't mean that all those setups are actual trades.
They are potential ones. But, often, most of them are executed.
I just use their hard work.
  • #152
  • Apr 8, 2018 8:25am Apr 8, 2018 8:25am
"Core Volumes to determine entries and exits Regarding volumes... well, that can be used on so many different ways with success. But i wait for bargains in a trend. Mostly known as pull backs. When is something cheap to buy? In the below example you can see clearly that banks are buying EUR against CHF.

That is my trend right there. Then i use volumes to see when it pulls back from the trend. Whenever there where large selling volumes (larger than the averaged line), i wait until it closes below. There is my entry. When do i close? Depends on several things like the actual bank targets, power in volumes or currency strength. For now i give you examples the easy way: whenever buying volumes rises above the averaged line and starts to drop (getting less than previous candle). See example below. This 'technique' is also used to scout possible peaks&dips. {image} Whenever i have more time to share, i try to post more."


Hey JayRai,

I appreciate your explanations so far and the work you put in here.

Quick one, would you kindly explain what you meant by the highlighted quote " i wait until it closes below. There is my entry", would I be wrong to assume it means close of volume below the average line?

Are you also using volume to indicate strength coming in on the bearish bars that have high volume but are reversed ( in line with the pullback into the trend)?

lastly would the candle i have marked with an arrow in the attachment herein that had the highest volume in my case be used to indicate sharp money have come in and the consequent downbars being a discount for the long again?

thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 140 KB
  • #153
  • Edited 2:55pm Apr 8, 2018 12:07pm | Edited 2:55pm
Quoting JayRai
I agree, a lot of retail traders have had bad experiences regarding paid services / products. I was once of them in my first few years before my professional trading career.........
Many thanks for your reply.

I was a student of Jarratt Davis for 2 years, hence I'm familiar with the effects that various economic measures, including central bank policy, can have on exchange rates.

If the data provided by bankersfx.com is bona fide, then a knowledge of the big bank positions and core volumes should provide a genuine edge that's (importantly) independent of technical analysis, one that can be further built upon, and also provide additional conviction for one's trading decisions.

My understanding is that it's within Forex Factory's rules to name and discuss commercial products and services, and the vendors that provide them, within the commercial forum. However, you're more likely to encounter opposition here from FF members who've set themselves up as some kind of vigilante group to protect others from potential scams. This group could also include anybody who is skeptical of fundamental analysis, and folk who see themselves as being preyed upon by unscrupulous brokers, vendors, and manipulation within the market itself.

I agree that it's possible to get ahead, but my experience is that mastering the required process is no easy matter and requires a lot of hard work, patience, self-discipline, stamina and a very steady nerve. Also sufficient capital, prudent risk management, and a trustworthy broker.
  • #154
  • Apr 8, 2018 2:59pm Apr 8, 2018 2:59pm
Quoting msap
Hey JayRai, I appreciate your explanations so far and the work you put in here. Quick one, would you kindly explain what you meant by the highlighted quote " i wait until it closes below. There is my entry", would I be wrong to assume it means close of volume below the average line? Are you also using volume to indicate strength coming in on the bearish bars that have high volume but are reversed ( in line with the pullback into the trend)? lastly would the candle i have marked with an arrow in the attachment herein that had the highest volume in...
Hey msap,

That is indeed what i meant in the example. Waiting for a short bearish move rises above the averaged horizontal line and enter when bearish volumes get beneath the line again. But in your case or image, it is hard to say. Your volume indicator is based on and displaying other values than what i see and use.
I am not a coder at all but mostly volume indicators in MT4 are based on ticks from your broker. Very different. But when i mark the same candle in my chart, i would say that the bearish move is weakening instead of evolving. However, it is even harder to explain why. Could be many things that happened around those price levels. When you see a large bearish volume, it does not say that the trend will change btw. When, let's say, a bank opens a very big long order, you could see a large bearish candle at first due to complex order flow to offer a fair price to the bank. To say what exactly happened there, i must say i can't.

@Hanover:
Jarratt Davis is a solid fundamental trader indeed. As far as i know, he started as a retail trader himself and walked same paths as many others.
But he would be a good example to see what it takes to become consistent successful. It isn't easy at all.
A trader could make his/her own fundamental analysis but then again it would be wise to use great tools as well like Ransquawk for instance.
As you said; hard work is one of the requirements. I am aware that fundamentals isn't the most hot topic around here but i hope that traders try to put as many effort in understanding fundamentals as they put into technicals. I really think that could make a big difference in their trading.

Nice to see that you really know what you are talking about btw! Thanks for your time to read the thread and share thoughts, opinions and facts.
Appreciate it!
  • #155
  • Apr 8, 2018 3:17pm Apr 8, 2018 3:17pm
JayRai, Nice stuff you have introduced. Will try it out this week by opening an a/c with Bankersfx
  • #156
  • Apr 8, 2018 3:51pm Apr 8, 2018 3:51pm
Quoting rvenky
JayRai, Nice stuff you have introduced. Will try it out this week by opening an a/c with Bankersfx
Hi rvenky,

Thank you. But please understand that i am not suggesting a specific service or product other than the type of service and data.
There are others out there as mentioned earlier but currently i am using Bankersfx.
I do not say they are the best! I do say: keep always your guards up and be focussed. Keep your eyes open.
Currently i am happy with them as long as they deliver what they say.
And welcome to the thread!
  • #157
  • Apr 8, 2018 7:09pm Apr 8, 2018 7:09pm
Quoting JayRai
{quote} Hi rvenky, Thank you. But please understand that i am not suggesting a specific service or product other than the type of service and data. There are others out there as mentioned earlier but currently i am using Bankersfx. I do not say they are the best! I do say: keep always your guards up and be focussed. Keep your eyes open. Currently i am happy with them as long as they deliver what they say. And welcome to the thread!
Thanks for your advice. I will surely be careful. Learned a lot of new things from your and Angela. Thanks for exposing these things to the ff family
  • #158
  • Apr 8, 2018 9:11pm Apr 8, 2018 9:11pm
Thanks Jayrai for sharing his method of trading
So basically you identify trends by looking at bank orders and positions then use core volume to pinpoint entry
i would like to ask
1) Will you do your own fundamental/technical analysis? How accurate are the info provided by bankersfx?
2) Are you trading only H4 charts?
3) How would you place SL?
Thanks
  • #159
  • Apr 9, 2018 3:05am Apr 9, 2018 3:05am
Quoting rvenky
{quote} Thanks for your advice. I will surely be careful. Learned a lot of new things from your and Angela. Thanks for exposing these things to the ff family
Hello rvenky,

You are most welcome. But i must say that it was already out there (certain data feeds) before i used it privately. I just use it on a certain way that makes things simpler. Glad to hear you appreciate it!

Quoting Zkk
1) Will you do your own fundamental/technical analysis? How accurate are the info provided by bankersfx?
2) Are you trading only H4 charts?
3) How would you place SL?
Hello Zkk,

1. I do not anymore. For me, making fundamental analysis that are spot on to see potential setups asks very hard and focussed work.
I am not able to do that every day since my accident. I rely on the bank's analysts. The info coming from Bankersfx is, until now, accurate.
To make sure i check the positions from time to time with the sources i still got.

2. No. Some days i scalp as well using the 15 minutes chart. However, i do it on days when i feel like it. When i am 100% certain that i am focussed enough to do so.

3. When i open a position (H4) i do not start with SL or TP. Sounds a bit dangerous you might say. But i focus on entries at first. When positions are open, i keep track on bank positions. If banks adjust something, i will check the chart and then decide what to do. Until then, i give positions all the room.
It is all included in my trade plan / money management. When i scalp (M15) i use previous low / high to exit a loss. Not on the conventional way by exiting whenever the price exceeds the previous low / high but when a candle actually closes below / above it.
  • #160
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:13am Apr 9, 2018 6:13am
JaiRai,
Will you apply core volume indi on M15 TF?
How does it look on M15?
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