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SAFE - KISS

  • #921
  • Apr 2, 2018 5:38pm Apr 2, 2018 5:38pm
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Well Ralffe have say many times that he get a win ratio of 90 percent or even better. If you still cant make it profitable i think maybe there is something whrong in his trading. So to help him fnd this flaws i advice to post charts. Or maybe it is in in his money management, that could also be investigated if we cant fins anything whrong with the trades he posts. Best regards
Ralffe has mentioned his win rate several times yes. Not to take anything away from him but a 90% win rate does not mean anything. I can win $1 90 times and lose $10 10 times and I would be unprofitable with a 90% win ratio.

Last year I was around 50% Win rate but still turned profit. Money Management is just as important as a viable trading method or system.

Also, I do not recall Ralffe ever saying he was profitable or not. I will go and re-read his posts to be sure, and if I am wrong I will say so. The only person to mention anything about profitability was thjw and did so without including any data.

I just want to be clear that I am not picking on anyone or showing off knowledge, I am a facts based person who deals in number, facts and figures. I don't accept blanket statements with no data to back it up. That sort of thing is not fair to the OP or anyone trying to learn.

Forex is a business and should be treated as such.

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #922
  • Apr 2, 2018 11:18pm Apr 2, 2018 11:18pm
Ralffe

you mention many times that this method can produce a win rate of above 90 percent if one trades daily time frame. For me this has been the same as you are profitable with your way of trading but i see now this is not a sure thing. Another person in this thread mentioned that he never seen you posted if you was profitable or not i was just take it for granted also when you say you will have some people trade for you and with you for your money and they will get some eprcents of the winings also. To clear any missconseptions can you please tell us if this has been profitable for you, please say tell us as mutch as you feel comfortable with.

Thank You.

Best regards
  • #923
  • Apr 3, 2018 12:19am Apr 3, 2018 12:19am
WHAT is wrong with JG .... IF you prove yourself on demo "ralffe" will fund an account for you to trade..... WHERE is the problem with that ???????????? SP
  • #924
  • Apr 3, 2018 12:22am Apr 3, 2018 12:22am
Quoting starpro
WHAT is wrong with JG .... IF you prove yourself on demo "ralffe" will fund an account for you to trade..... WHERE is the problem with that ???????????? SP
I was thinking the same thing. IMO either JG is trying to troll or just does not really comprehend what is going on.

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #925
  • Apr 3, 2018 1:12am Apr 3, 2018 1:12am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} I was thinking the same thing. IMO either JG is trying to troll or just does not really comprehend what is going on. -Ric

I am confused really. I try to help another person in this thread answearing his question, if anyone making profit with this method of trading. Then YOU say Ralffe have not say anywhere that he makes profit. So to avoid any confusion i simply ask Ralffe YOUR question if he is in fat profit. And now maybe it is me that trolling ? reallly. I think that we just forget it and that you just please stop posting more to me. Thank You.

Best regards
  • #926
  • Apr 3, 2018 1:16am Apr 3, 2018 1:16am
Quoting starpro
WHAT is wrong with JG .... IF you prove yourself on demo "ralffe" will fund an account for you to trade..... WHERE is the problem with that ???????????? SP

Mayby you should take some deep breaths and relax, read my post again. No where does it say anything is whrong, but it is in fact an answear to another post 921 in this thread. Yes i ask Ralffe because this poster say that Ralffe dont say anytwhere in this thread that he is profitable. So instead of speculating any further i just ask.

Best regards
  • #927
  • Apr 3, 2018 1:35am Apr 3, 2018 1:35am
The following is my theory for this month on the pairs I look at. Before you ask, I am not going to analyze every pair in the world. I stick with USD majors because of Margin requirements & Low spread. I live in the USA and cant hedge and we have the FIFO rule in effect so ad-ons have to be done with care.

AUD/USD - Looking for a break to downside. Anything can happen especially with consolidation for the last 11 days. However it is drifting lower. Today's CASH rate stayed the same so I do not expect sudden moves come US Open.

EUR/USD - Looking for a break out of this 2 month range to the down side. Upside potential is limited do to dominating resistance around the 0.8125 mark. Price has not been above that level since January 2015.

GBP/USD - Although it has moved a bit more than EUR/USD the story is the same. Looking for downward move because of dominant resistance around 1.4300 where it has not been above since June 2016.

NZD/USD - Once again, looking for a down break. It has been stuck in this 250 PIP range for 2 months now. The high of between 0.7400 & 0.7500 has been a strong spot of resistance since it crashed below that level in May of 2015.

USD/CAD - This can break either way. It is drifting higher but a down break can happen depending on Fundamentals. Major support to the down side is well over 600 pips away while resistance to the upside is about 250. But it is floating up despite the fact that last month is pretty much consolidation. Overall trend is down since May 2017. If price breaks 1.3120 ( I don't think it will this month but anything can happen) next resistance with any real meaning is 1.3500 level.

USD/CHF - Looking for upside potential this month. It has been drifting up last month with the current major low at 0.9180, a price not touched in nearly 3 years.

USD/JPY - So this one is up in the air. Although this pair is clearly down trending, there has not been a retrace in 4 months. It has a lot of potential either way. Upside looking at 115.00 until resistance and to the down side, if it breaks the 104.60 range the potential to ride to the next major support of 100.00. Playing it by ear and keeping close on fundamentals and technicals to get cues.

-Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #928
  • Edited 7:03pm Apr 3, 2018 3:19am | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} I am confused really. I try to help another person in this thread answearing his question, if anyone making profit with this method of trading. Then YOU say Ralffe have not say anywhere that he makes profit. So to avoid any confusion i simply ask Ralffe YOUR question if he is in fat profit. And now maybe it is me that trolling ? reallly. I think that we just forget it and that you just please stop posting more to me. Thank You. Best regards
I think we are lost in translation. English is not your first language so do not take offense or be so touchy. I stated facts. thjw mentioned profits, I stated Ralffe did not speak about it. I never asked nor do I think it is anyones business on anyones profits. If they want to share or not that is up to them.

"Quoting thjw
can anyone honestly say they are making a positive equity curve with this method. I have tested it with rules and find it unprofitable for me. Im grateful that it was posted because it is a trading idea thats outside the box. thanks"

This method of trading works. It has low risk and high potential. It uses the tried and true support and resistance and trading with the trend. I have a positive equity curve with this style of trading. I have yet to execute a trade with Ralffes style but because it is so close to what I already do I will give it a go. Looking at my past results it would have added to my overall profits. You need to have patience because this is a longer term trading style where you will have to wait days or even weeks for a trade to develop and even longer sometimes as a trade unfolds.

So jgadefelth I hope you understand I am not picking on you or anyone. I am trying to help. If you wish I ignore I will do so. If not, I am here to help.

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #929
  • Apr 3, 2018 11:14pm Apr 3, 2018 11:14pm
In the first video Ralffe talks about how to trade this method and also about the steepness of trendlines. There are some of the smaller trendlines in the beginning that he make up but dont talk about that is steep and also the last yellow line is wery steep why is this not to steep ? Trying to learn here sorry if this have been asked before.

Best regards
  • #930
  • Apr 4, 2018 2:00am Apr 4, 2018 2:00am
Forex trading could be something complicated or simple, it's different for each person. A profitable system from someone doesn't mean it can be profitable too for someone else. Some people say price action is better rather than relying on many indicator, but not many people really understand how to use price action. There's nothing exact in forex trading, to be honest after years learning forex i'm still not having a good system which suitable and can generate consistent profit but i do believe someday i will get one by never stop learning.
Anyway, can somebody advise me on my TL drawing? the bold blue line is taken from D1.

Thanks
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  • #931
  • Apr 4, 2018 8:47pm Apr 4, 2018 8:47pm
Quoting Ralffe
UJ looks set to head North. {image}
Hi Ralffe
Having been following your thread for a month or so and love this method. I have always loved trends and lines but never knew when to enter or exit. Will keep practicing but so far my profits have increased. Thanks again for sharing your knowledge.
  • #932
  • Apr 4, 2018 9:23pm Apr 4, 2018 9:23pm
Quoting inoycavalera
Forex trading could be something complicated or simple, it's different for each person. A profitable system from someone doesn't mean it can be profitable too for someone else. Some people say price action is better rather than relying on many indicator, but not many people really understand how to use price action. There's nothing exact in forex trading, to be honest after years learning forex i'm still not having a good system which suitable and can generate consistent profit but i do believe someday i will get one by never stop learning. Anyway,...
It is a bit difficult to tell, are H4 TR the starting one? If so they look a little steep for me. The D1 line I can not speak on because it is on a H4 Chart. Now I can say depending on how aggressive you want to be can have an affect on how and where you place your TRs. Catching small waves without looking at overall bias will cause some fake outs. In the example you are showing, you may have wanted to stay out of any long positions as price is clearly having trouble with the 107.00 area. I would wait to say if price comes down more, possibly retesting last swing low, then moving my TL to that swing high. Gives you more breathing room.

You must look at the whole picture when entering a trade, not just trading because the market crossed a line.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #933
  • Apr 5, 2018 12:53am Apr 5, 2018 12:53am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} It is a bit difficult to tell, are H4 TR the starting one? If so they look a little steep for me. The D1 line I can not speak on because it is on a H4 Chart. Now I can say depending on how aggressive you want to be can have an affect on how and where you place your TRs. Catching small waves without looking at overall bias will cause some fake outs. In the example you are showing, you may have wanted to stay out of any long positions as price is clearly having trouble with the 107.00 area. I would wait to say if price comes down more, possibly...
Thanks Ric for your advise
  • #934
  • Apr 5, 2018 9:49am Apr 5, 2018 9:49am
This is Ralffes chart from post 165. Can someone please explain the first green line, why we did not take a trade in the middel of the green line, between the 2 redlines please ?

Thank You

Best regards

Attached Image
  • #935
  • Apr 5, 2018 2:09pm Apr 5, 2018 2:09pm
Quoting jgadefelth
This is Ralffes chart from post 165. Can someone please explain the first green line, why we did not take a trade in the middel of the green line, between the 2 redlines please ? Thank You Best regards {image}
Well because at that time the green line was higher up on the chart. As the candles for each day form your moving the green line to the top of each wave as the markets in this case move lower. But it is very subjective. You could make the argument that there was a small wave where you talk about and that he should have moved the green line lower which would have ended in an entry shortly after, but that wave was small and the line would have been steep. Although the next green line was steep but he apparently took the trade and then 2 more green lines later theres barely a wave but yet it would have been entered.

The thing about this system and the way rallfe trades it is very subjective. As is the case with every system on here. One person may be able to be profitable but another person may not on the same exact system. The reality is if you follow a system like a robot you will not make money because no system works %100 automated. You need to take a system and use it as a guide line and use your own intuition for the rest. Which is why rallfe can make money on this system and most of use cant. if you watch rallfes videos youll see he doesnt follow the system like a robot. In the videos he should have taken losses but he explains away why he didnt. I call that intuition. You need to find the system that best suits your own intuition.

With that being said I hope everyone had jumped on that USD JPY long form a few days ago. Rallfe gave us a heads up on.
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  • #936
  • Apr 5, 2018 5:16pm Apr 5, 2018 5:16pm
Interesting thread and system Ralffe.

Just finished up reading this week and I'll add my thoughts on trades...looking forward to critiques.

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  • #937
  • Apr 6, 2018 10:52pm Apr 6, 2018 10:52pm
Quoting pp22
{quote} Well because at that time the green line was higher up on the chart. As the candles for each day form your moving the green line to the top of each wave as the markets in this case move lower. But it is very subjective. You could make the argument that there was a small wave where you talk about and that he should have moved the green line lower which would have ended in an entry shortly after, but that wave was small and the line would have been steep. Although the next green line was steep but he apparently took the trade and then 2 more...
Thank You it was a good answear. Maybe it will come more with experience, and first try just to stay safe better little later in the trade then get into a fakout. And just study the waves you moves the line to.


Best regards
  • #938
  • Apr 8, 2018 3:31pm Apr 8, 2018 3:31pm
Hi newb here,

Don't know if this is relevant or not but we have to avoid to draw steep trendlines, right?

And isn't that a bit subjective since you can manipulate your chart (with cursor in the right side) to make it more flat and, with that action, make your trendline less steep?

Nevertheless .... interesting concept!!

Regards
  • #939
  • Apr 8, 2018 10:55pm Apr 8, 2018 10:55pm
Quoting Swnlobo
~~And isn't that a bit subjective since you can manipulate your chart (with cursor in the right side) to make it more flat and, with that action, make your trendline less steep?
Yes. So to me that means, steep in relation to others trend lines I've drawn on the same chart. Or you could set up the slope of your chart by copying off one of Ralffe's.
Good Trading
  • #940
  • Apr 9, 2018 12:16am Apr 9, 2018 12:16am
Quoting Swnlobo
Hi newb here, Don't know if this is relevant or not but we have to avoid to draw steep trendlines, right? And isn't that a bit subjective since you can manipulate your chart (with cursor in the right side) to make it more flat and, with that action, make your trendline less steep? Nevertheless .... interesting concept!! Regards
Yes steep is very subjective and steep for one person may not be steep for another person. You have to use your own intuition to draw the lines. Keep in mind that the steeper you draw a line the more likely youll get false break outs. Also the flatter you draw a line the more likely youll get false break outs as well. Generally I like to use the default MT4 sized vertical scale chart and zoom in and out to draw lines. I believe the vertical scale is at maximum by default.
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